SURVEY: Brexit, do you support it?

[Grouse]

Democratic ratings 2014.

Norway first, Switzerland second

http://democracyranking.org/wordpress/rank/democracy-ranking-2015/

Interesting! Looks like EU generally has the best democracies! What was the point again? Did I miss something? ?

Could be, but many of these countries have very different 'internal' setups, for instance, some folk get a pension earlier than the UK, higher cash pension, taxes are different, especially vino. We are not ALL on a level playing field, yet UK because of it's cash is ploughing shit loads of money in. If Turkey joins we are in serious trouble.

I certainly agree your Turkey comment. That would make me leave. I don't see that gapping though.

Generally, pension provision in UK is poorer because of our opt outs.

Net contribution is about 10B Euro? I do know that we are 9th of 10 net contributors per head by GDP

[AlexRich]

It is impossible to predict whether Leaving the EU would benefit the UK over a 5-20 year period, there are too many variables to weigh and consider. What I find strange is that many people on both sides speak with absolute certainty about what the outcome would be? The truth is that no one really knows. The EU set up as it stands is a failure, and is in need of reform. Frau Merkel et al are not exactly wowing the voters with their immigration policies and the Southern Europeans are suffering within the Euro block. It looks to me that something will have to give for the EU to survive and That might be for the better for everyone.

In the short run, an exit from the EU by the UK will cause the pound sterling to fall as well as world financial markets. If you are staying in Thailand that will make life more expensive. The negotiation takes two years and within that time there will be attempts to keep the UK in the EU. So we will have more uncertainty for the next two years, again not good for pound sterling.

I don't liove the EU and believe that it needs reform. On balance I think that the UK are better in than out. The EU will reform because if it doesn't it will fracture. I believe that the benefits of an exit are negligible.

[BaldPlumber]

Democratic ratings 2014.

Norway first, Switzerland second

http://democracyranking.org/wordpress/rank/democracy-ranking-2015/

Interesting! Looks like EU generally has the best democracies! What was the point again? Did I miss something?

With ever closer political union how can any EU member state remain truly democratic?

OK if you don't care about accountability and democratic representation I suppose.

[Grouse]

Democratic ratings 2014.

Norway first, Switzerland second

http://democracyranking.org/wordpress/rank/democracy-ranking-2015/

Interesting! Looks like EU generally has the best democracies! What was the point again? Did I miss something?

With ever closer political union how can any EU member state remain truly democratic?

OK if you don't care about accountability and democratic representation I suppose.

With regard to your first comment, I believe that sharing some sovereignty benefits us whereas isolation doesn't.

With regard to your second comment concerning democratic representation and accountability, I agree. There are serious issues to address and we are not alone in wanting change for the better!

[sandyf]

Thank you for answering the question.

My view differs - I would certainly have voted to join the 9 member state in 1973 based on the information available. From what I see now I would not wish to be part of the current structure of EU - for example, freedom of movement of people could not have envisaged the enlarged EU or the economic migration created by the inclusion of 'poorer' countries.

I cannot dispute your assertions about working conditions etc as no one actually knows what would have happened had we not been 'in'. I would certainly dispute the secondary smoking comment where it is far worse on other European countries. That does not matter because I am not saying that the EEC was a bad thing (I was pro-Europe in the early days and for most of my working life) - many good things came out of membership. My issue is the monster that the EU has become and would argue that a significant majority would NOT join now.

My instinct is that (subject to the UK having politicians with the balls to manage through some choppy waters..... ??) it is time for Britain to take control of its own affairs.

Will the EU collapse if we leave? I imagine that BREXIT would certainly accelerate the likelihood of that happening.

You are absolutely right, no one knows what would have happened and I think your comment about the majority saying NO is biased on what we we do know. Had the UK been left behind, human nature being what it is, it is more than likely the UK would want the same as the others.

Your second last comment really is the crux of where we are today. The track record of the UK government post war and prior to involvement with Europe was dismal and it is unlikely that anyone will ever convince me that they will do any better in the future. In 1966 they restricted how much money you could take out of the country to £50. In 67 they devalued the pound by 14% and years prior to the EEC were a nightmare with industrial action. When we did join the EEC, unemployment and inflation were at post war highs.

As far as the EU collapsing, never going to happen, modified possibly, and it would be better if we were party to the modifications.

When I was stationed in Germany, the nearest major shopping area was in Venlo just across the border in Holland. Excellent shopping but you could not but anything fresh as it was illegal to take it back across the border. Really frustrating to queue up for the border guards to go through your vehicle. I used to drive back and fore to the UK and always had to have some French franc and Dutch Guilders in case of emergency. Invariably there was a huge queue on the motorway at the borders.

No European is ever going to want to go back to the way it was.

What you say Sandy is not wrong, BUT, I would take the p-poor UK governments over Brussels Eurocrats any day. Governments generally sink or swim as a result of macro economic factors.

There is no reason why movement between countries needs to be difficult. Quoting a return to the days of border guards and Franc/Guilders/Marks is simply scaremongering. Exchange control regulations existed in those days and no way will they return. Using money is much easier with the advent of plastic and singe currency in other parts of Europe.

Interestingly (for me at least) is the fact that I would be happy for the UK to have the Euro as its currency takes away any exchange rate risk of trading with or traveling to Europe.

I did not quote a return to anything, I was making a case for the EU to remain in place, quite the opposite.

I admire your confidence in the UK government, it really does come down to picking the best looking chick in an ugly bird ball. I just hope the choice gets made on rational thinking rather than emotional rhetoric.

[brewsterbudgen]

It is impossible to predict whether Leaving the EU would benefit the UK over a 5-20 year period, there are too many variables to weigh and consider. What I find strange is that many people on both sides speak with absolute certainty about what the outcome would be? The truth is that no one really knows. The EU set up as it stands is a failure, and is in need of reform. Frau Merkel et al are not exactly wowing the voters with their immigration policies and the Southern Europeans are suffering within the Euro block. It looks to me that something will have to give for the EU to survive and That might be for the better for everyone.

In the short run, an exit from the EU by the UK will cause the pound sterling to fall as well as world financial markets. If you are staying in Thailand that will make life more expensive. The negotiation takes two years and within that time there will be attempts to keep the UK in the EU. So we will have more uncertainty for the next two years, again not good for pound sterling.

I don't liove the EU and believe that it needs reform. On balance I think that the UK are better in than out. The EU will reform because if it doesn't it will fracture. I believe that the benefits of an exit are negligible.

Good post. I truly hope that when the financial realities of a Brexit are fully understood, common sense and the status quo will prevail, as they usually do in referenda. Edited May 14, 2016 by brewsterbudgen

[nontabury]

I would like to see the U.K. stay in the E.U. I am a U.K. citizen and on a purely personal view there are many reports that the British pound would tank by approx. 20% which would be extremely detrimental to my financies .

But the point you are missing, there will be no British pound, only the Euro, so it will be 40% less, plus NO EU benefits paid outside the EU, so make plans to go home, Think outside the box.

Evidence?

I'm really trying hard guys....

For those who want to know the economics for staying in or exit,can I recommend this video of one of the UK's most highly respected economist.Prof Patrick Minford, Educ Winchester collage and Oxford University. Appearing before a House of Commons select committee

The video is approximately one hour.

[allanos]

It is impossible to predict whether Leaving the EU would benefit the UK over a 5-20 year period, there are too many variables to weigh and consider. What I find strange is that many people on both sides speak with absolute certainty about what the outcome would be? The truth is that no one really knows. The EU set up as it stands is a failure, and is in need of reform. Frau Merkel et al are not exactly wowing the voters with their immigration policies and the Southern Europeans are suffering within the Euro block. It looks to me that something will have to give for the EU to survive and That might be for the better for everyone.

In the short run, an exit from the EU by the UK will cause the pound sterling to fall as well as world financial markets. If you are staying in Thailand that will make life more expensive. The negotiation takes two years and within that time there will be attempts to keep the UK in the EU. So we will have more uncertainty for the next two years, again not good for pound sterling.

I don't liove the EU and believe that it needs reform. On balance I think that the UK are better in than out. The EU will reform because if it doesn't it will fracture. I believe that the benefits of an exit are negligible.

Huge emphasis has been laid on the "future unknown" factor if Britain pulls out of the EU, by the Bremainers". But the countervailing premise is exactly the same, in that the future unknown applies equally to Britain remaining in the EU.

The huge migration of Syrians (and others), with the enormous pressures it is bringing upon mainland Europe, is something of a Black Swan. It came out of left field. And the response, led by Angela Merkel, has been woeful. Similarly the crisis in Greece. What other crises may arise in the future, which will likewise have a ineffectual response by the EU political leadership?

If, as your sensible post argues, the EU not only needs, but HAS to reform, in order to save itself, then it begs the question "what is going to be the catalyst"? On present (and past) performance, radical reform is highly unlikely. There is no "leader" worthy of mention, and, in fact, the EU is not well structured or equipped to deliver one. Love her or hate her, the EU needs a "Maggie Thatcher"; there is not one on the horizon.

If, as your post observes, the EU "as it stands is a failure", why on earth would Britain stay in, given this historic, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get out. It is totally counter-intuitive?

Most "Brexiteers" understand this, in their gut, and don't need the benefits of a higher education to suss it out (despite what a few posters on this forum would like us to believe). Brexit is a vote for common sense, if nothing else!

[Grouse]

I would like to see the U.K. stay in the E.U. I am a U.K. citizen and on a purely personal view there are many reports that the British pound would tank by approx. 20% which would be extremely detrimental to my financies .

But the point you are missing, there will be no British pound, only the Euro, so it will be 40% less, plus NO EU benefits paid outside the EU, so make plans to go home, Think outside the box.

Evidence?

I'm really trying hard guys....

For those who want to know the economics for staying in or exit,can I recommend this video of one of the UK's most highly respected economist.Prof Patrick Minford, Educ Winchester collage and Oxford University. Appearing before a House of Commons select committee

The video is approximately one hour.

Minford is NOT high respected

He was responsible for Thatcher's monetarist theories which led to the collapse of manufacturing from 24% to 10% of GDP. In the process, much of the North of England was decimated and society as we used to know it was extinguished

Please provide someone who is really respected. Thankyou

I note the Minford clip is titled "addressing the idiots in parliament" and produced by Robin Hood UKIP! <deleted>? Respected?

Edited May 14, 2016 by Grouse

[allanos]

I would suggest that Britain's manufacturing workforce were not productive enough to remain competitive,

and t is unfair to label Minford as being the sole cause of the collapse which you cite, Mr Grouser.

The old saw that "you cannot make an omelette without breaking a few eggs" comes to mind. Britain's

smaller manufacturing base is now technically and technologically equipped and streamlined to go head to

head with the rest of the world.

In order to grow this smaller base, more emphasis needs to be placed on education and training. This

will evolve over time. It cannot be done overnight.

[nontabury]

I would like to see the U.K. stay in the E.U. I am a U.K. citizen and on a purely personal view there are many reports that the British pound would tank by approx. 20% which would be extremely detrimental to my financies .

But the point you are missing, there will be no British pound, only the Euro, so it will be 40% less, plus NO EU benefits paid outside the EU, so make plans to go home, Think outside the box.

Evidence?

I'm really trying hard guys....

For those who want to know the economics for staying in or exit,can I recommend this video of one of the UK's most highly respected economist.Prof Patrick Minford, Educ Winchester collage and Oxford University. Appearing before a House of Commons select committee
The video is approximately one hour.

Minford is NOT high respected

He was responsible for Thatcher's monetarist theories which led to the collapse of manufacturing from 24% to 10% of GDP. In the process, much of the North of England was decimated and society as we used to know it was extinguished

Please provide someone who is really respected. Thankyou

I note the Minford clip is titled "addressing the idiots in parliament" and produced by Robin Hood UKIP! <deleted>? Respected?

Grouse, have you actually taken the trouble to watch this video. One of the MP's on this panel,who seemed to be opposed to the Prof was the Conservative MP for Coventry. One of Thatchers children.
If you do not agree with his stance,fair enough,pull it to bits. But remember he is one of those highly educated people,who throughout this tread, YOU have continuously said is worth listening to,unlike the rest of us uneducated underlings.

[AlexRich]

It is impossible to predict whether Leaving the EU would benefit the UK over a 5-20 year period, there are too many variables to weigh and consider. What I find strange is that many people on both sides speak with absolute certainty about what the outcome would be? The truth is that no one really knows. The EU set up as it stands is a failure, and is in need of reform. Frau Merkel et al are not exactly wowing the voters with their immigration policies and the Southern Europeans are suffering within the Euro block. It looks to me that something will have to give for the EU to survive and That might be for the better for everyone.

In the short run, an exit from the EU by the UK will cause the pound sterling to fall as well as world financial markets. If you are staying in Thailand that will make life more expensive. The negotiation takes two years and within that time there will be attempts to keep the UK in the EU. So we will have more uncertainty for the next two years, again not good for pound sterling.

I don't liove the EU and believe that it needs reform. On balance I think that the UK are better in than out. The EU will reform because if it doesn't it will fracture. I believe that the benefits of an exit are negligible.

Huge emphasis has been laid on the "future unknown" factor if Britain pulls out of the EU, by the "Bremainers". But the countervailing premise is exactly the same, in that the future unknown applies equally to Britain remaining in the EU.

The huge migration of Syrians (and others), with the enormous pressures it is bringing upon mainland Europe, is something of a Black Swan. It came out

of left field. And the response, led by Angela Merkel, has been woeful. Similarly the crisis in Greece. What other crises may arise in the future, which will

likewise have a ineffectual response by the EU political leadership?

If, as your sensible post argues, the EU not only needs, but HAS to reform, in order to save itself, then it begs the question "what is going to be the

catalyst"? On present (and past) performance, radical reform is highly unlikely. There is no "leader" worthy of mention, and, in fact, the EU is not well

structured or equipped to deliver one. Love her or hate her, the EU needs a "Maggie Thatcher"; there is not one on the horizon.

If, as your post observes, the EU "as it stands is a failure", why on earth would Britain stay in, given this historic, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get out.

It is totally counter-intuitive?

Most "Brexiteers" understand this, in their gut, and don't need the benefits of a higher education to suss it out (despite what a few posters on this forum

would like us to believe). Brexit is a vote for common sense, if nothing else!

I think most would agree that the EU, as it stands at the moment, is in need of reform. The German and French (among others) have routinely stated that the solution to these problems is 'more Europe', i.e. further integration. The UK was one of the very few countries who routinely argued against this. My view is that narrative has changed amongst Europeans. Even Merkel has lost her popularity and German's are increasingly vocal about the immigration shambles in their country. The Euro's strength has been good for north Europe and bad for South ... that seems to be coming to a head. The catalyst might possibly be the collapse of the Euro, or at least weak countries leaving and reverting to historical currencies. My point really is this 'more Europe' solution may not actually happen, and we might see populations forcing their governments to organise Europe differently. Who knows? My point is that changes in Europe in the future may reverse some of the issues we see today. In other words, it might get better rather than get worse. And being inside allows the UK to influence those changes. It's not a prediction, just one possible scenario.

Having said all of that, none of us really fully understand the implications of a brexit, it's impossible to predict. So people will likely vote based on gut feeling or emotions. The only thing that I'm quite certain about is that the in the short-term pound sterling and markets will suffer.

Also, I don't think that this is a once-in-a-lifetime event. If the EU fails to reform other countries might leave, and that could start a domino effect, including the UK. Good luck to all of us.

[Grouse]

I would suggest that Britain's manufacturing workforce were not productive enough to remain competitive,

and t is unfair to label Minford as being the sole cause of the collapse which you cite, Mr Grouser.

The old saw that "you cannot make an omelette without breaking a few eggs" comes to mind. Britain's

smaller manufacturing base is now technically and technologically equipped and streamlined to go head to

head with the rest of the world.

In order to grow this smaller base, more emphasis needs to be placed on education and training. This

will evolve over time. It cannot be done overnight.

Yes, point taken

My issue is that in the blind pursuit of monitorism, no time was given to grow other industries. Why the need for speed?

We should have built a much bigger semiconductor and computer industry for example.

Why did we not pour resources into university spin offs and high tech infrastructure

In the meantime, why throw all the miners, steel workers and ship builders onto the scrap heap and spend all our oil revenues on dole money? The Norwegians did a much better job with their revenues!

Do you think German car workers are paid less than UK workers? Of course not. But they have a much more appropriate education system and sophisticated corporate structures

The final nail in the Minford coffin is short term -ism and the pursuit of shareholder value. The Germans think long term. This issue is also killing our American cousins

Right now our manufacturing, particularly automotive, benefits from some Goldilocks benefits for inward investment:

English speaking

EU member

Financial and other services

So I reiterate, Minford is nobody to admire. Choose someone from the LSE

Edited May 14, 2016 by Grouse

[Grouse]

I would like to see the U.K. stay in the E.U. I am a U.K. citizen and on a purely personal view there are many reports that the British pound would tank by approx. 20% which would be extremely detrimental to my financies .

But the point you are missing, there will be no British pound, only the Euro, so it will be 40% less, plus NO EU benefits paid outside the EU, so make plans to go home, Think outside the box.

Evidence?

I'm really trying hard guys....

For those who want to know the economics for staying in or exit,can I recommend this video of one of the UK's most highly respected economist.Prof Patrick Minford, Educ Winchester collage and Oxford University. Appearing before a House of Commons select committee
The video is approximately one hour.

Minford is NOT high respected

He was responsible for Thatcher's monetarist theories which led to the collapse of manufacturing from 24% to 10% of GDP. In the process, much of the North of England was decimated and society as we used to know it was extinguished

Please provide someone who is really respected. Thankyou

I note the Minford clip is titled "addressing the idiots in parliament" and produced by Robin Hood UKIP! <deleted>? Respected?

Grouse, have you actually taken the trouble to watch this video. One of the MP's on this panel,who seemed to be opposed to the Prof was the Conservative MP for Coventry. One of Thatchers children.
If you do not agree with his stance,fair enough,pull it to bits. But remember he is one of those highly educated people,who throughout this tread, YOU have continuously said is worth listening to,unlike the rest of us uneducated underlings.

I said there seems to be a direct correlation between education level and being pro-EU.

Sorry if that hurts

[Grouse]

It is impossible to predict whether Leaving the EU would benefit the UK over a 5-20 year period, there are too many variables to weigh and consider. What I find strange is that many people on both sides speak with absolute certainty about what the outcome would be? The truth is that no one really knows. The EU set up as it stands is a failure, and is in need of reform. Frau Merkel et al are not exactly wowing the voters with their immigration policies and the Southern Europeans are suffering within the Euro block. It looks to me that something will have to give for the EU to survive and That might be for the better for everyone.

In the short run, an exit from the EU by the UK will cause the pound sterling to fall as well as world financial markets. If you are staying in Thailand that will make life more expensive. The negotiation takes two years and within that time there will be attempts to keep the UK in the EU. So we will have more uncertainty for the next two years, again not good for pound sterling.

I don't liove the EU and believe that it needs reform. On balance I think that the UK are better in than out. The EU will reform because if it doesn't it will fracture. I believe that the benefits of an exit are negligible.

Huge emphasis has been laid on the "future unknown" factor if Britain pulls out of the EU, by the "Bremainers". But the countervailing premise is exactly the same, in that the future unknown applies equally to Britain remaining in the EU.

The huge migration of Syrians (and others), with the enormous pressures it is bringing upon mainland Europe, is something of a Black Swan. It came out

of left field. And the response, led by Angela Merkel, has been woeful. Similarly the crisis in Greece. What other crises may arise in the future, which will

likewise have a ineffectual response by the EU political leadership?

If, as your sensible post argues, the EU not only needs, but HAS to reform, in order to save itself, then it begs the question "what is going to be the

catalyst"? On present (and past) performance, radical reform is highly unlikely. There is no "leader" worthy of mention, and, in fact, the EU is not well

structured or equipped to deliver one. Love her or hate her, the EU needs a "Maggie Thatcher"; there is not one on the horizon.

If, as your post observes, the EU "as it stands is a failure", why on earth would Britain stay in, given this historic, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get out.

It is totally counter-intuitive?

Most "Brexiteers" understand this, in their gut, and don't need the benefits of a higher education to suss it out (despite what a few posters on this forum

would like us to believe). Brexit is a vote for common sense, if nothing else!

I think most would agree that the EU, as it stands at the moment, is in need of reform. The German and French (among others) have routinely stated that the solution to these problems is 'more Europe', i.e. further integration. The UK was one of the very few countries who routinely argued against this. My view is that narrative has changed amongst Europeans. Even Merkel has lost her popularity and German's are increasingly vocal about the immigration shambles in their country. The Euro's strength has been good for north Europe and bad for South ... that seems to be coming to a head. The catalyst might possibly be the collapse of the Euro, or at least weak countries leaving and reverting to historical currencies. My point really is this 'more Europe' solution may not actually happen, and we might see populations forcing their governments to organise Europe differently. Who knows? My point is that changes in Europe in the future may reverse some of the issues we see today. In other words, it might get better rather than get worse. And being inside allows the UK to influence those changes. It's not a prediction, just one possible scenario.

Having said all of that, none of us really fully understand the implications of a brexit, it's impossible to predict. So people will likely vote based on gut feeling or emotions. The only thing that I'm quite certain about is that the in the short-term pound sterling and markets will suffer.

Also, I don't think that this is a once-in-a-lifetime event. If the EU fails to reform other countries might leave, and that could start a domino effect, including the UK. Good luck to all of us.

Reasoned contribution. Thanks for that!

I think the Germans and others would support us in pushing for reform

I view the Syrians as refugees not migrants per se. Europe should be erecting better barriers to deter economic migrants as this trend will likely continue. I am in favour of supporting refugees until they can be helped home. Personally I would take draconian action against ME medieval regimes and bring them to their knees. I want this refugee spiral stopped. Frankly I would sanction splitting up Turkey and Iraq and Syria into federal units under secular rule.

Edited May 14, 2016 by Grouse

[AlexRich]

I've worked with a few Syrians. They are pretty well educated and encourage their kids to do well at school. They love their country and I suppose many would like to go back there if the war could be resolved. The danger is that the longer people stay as refugees the more likely they are not to return to their home country. I suspect many Syrians will stay in Germany ... good schools, lack of corruption, great opportunities, no tribalism or favouritism. As it was a secular state that allowed all kinds of religious worship I suspect they will blend in and integrate. Unfortunately, there are too many single men who don't know how to behave themselves, not all of whom are Syrian of course.

[nontabury]

It is impossible to predict whether Leaving the EU would benefit the UK over a 5-20 year period, there are too many variables to weigh and consider. What I find strange is that many people on both sides speak with absolute certainty about what the outcome would be? The truth is that no one really knows. The EU set up as it stands is a failure, and is in need of reform. Frau Merkel et al are not exactly wowing the voters with their immigration policies and the Southern Europeans are suffering within the Euro block. It looks to me that something will have to give for the EU to survive and That might be for the better for everyone.

In the short run, an exit from the EU by the UK will cause the pound sterling to fall as well as world financial markets. If you are staying in Thailand that will make life more expensive. The negotiation takes two years and within that time there will be attempts to keep the UK in the EU. So we will have more uncertainty for the next two years, again not good for pound sterling.

I don't liove the EU and believe that it needs reform. On balance I think that the UK are better in than out. The EU will reform because if it doesn't it will fracture. I believe that the benefits of an exit are negligible.

Huge emphasis has been laid on the "future unknown" factor if Britain pulls out of the EU, by the "Bremainers". But the countervailing premise is exactly the same, in that the future unknown applies equally to Britain remaining in the EU.

The huge migration of Syrians (and others), with the enormous pressures it is bringing upon mainland Europe, is something of a Black Swan. It came out of left field. And the response, led by Angela Merkel, has been woeful. Similarly the crisis in Greece. What other crises may arise in the future, which will likewise have a ineffectual response by the EU political leadership?

If, as your sensible post argues, the EU not only needs, but HAS to reform, in order to save itself, then it begs the question "what is going to be the catalyst"? On present (and past) performance, radical reform is highly unlikely. There is no "leader" worthy of mention, and, in fact, the EU is not well structured or equipped to deliver one. Love her or hate her, the EU needs a "Maggie Thatcher"; there is not one on the horizon.

If, as your post observes, the EU "as it stands is a failure", why on earth would Britain stay in, given this historic, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get out. It is totally counter-intuitive?

Most "Brexiteers" understand this, in their gut, and don't need the benefits of a higher education to suss it out (despite what a few posters on this forum would like us to believe). Brexit is a vote for common sense, if nothing else!

I just wonder how many of those who wish to remain in this corrupt organisation,are aware of the countries who have applied to join the EU

Let's start of with these-

It's worth knowing, The Bureaucrats in Brussels have promised to "re-energise

Turkeys application to join the EU in thanks to Turkeys help in the recent migrants crises. This is in addition to the EU paying a large amount to Turkey for this so called help. The U.K. Portion of this black male was £640,000,000.

Now we are informed that the UK will have to pay a further 1.8 billion by 2020 to actually encourage these countries to join the EU. And When these countries do join, many of their workers who are paid a pittance compared with UK workers are sure to want to take advantage of the free movement of labour within the Union and migrates to the U.K. What effect will this have, especially on the lower levels of the economic rung,

[allanos]

David Cameron believes be may have negotiated a temporary "stay of execution" as far as future migration

is concerned. It remains to be seen, of course. When push comes to shove, Mr Cameron may find that the

chips become stacked against him by the EU commissioners. We will then see how the Exchequer copes

with the future demands on the NHS and other Social Services, without raising taxes or other imposts on the

British people.

[Grouse]

It is impossible to predict whether Leaving the EU would benefit the UK over a 5-20 year period, there are too many variables to weigh and consider. What I find strange is that many people on both sides speak with absolute certainty about what the outcome would be? The truth is that no one really knows. The EU set up as it stands is a failure, and is in need of reform. Frau Merkel et al are not exactly wowing the voters with their immigration policies and the Southern Europeans are suffering within the Euro block. It looks to me that something will have to give for the EU to survive and That might be for the better for everyone.

In the short run, an exit from the EU by the UK will cause the pound sterling to fall as well as world financial markets. If you are staying in Thailand that will make life more expensive. The negotiation takes two years and within that time there will be attempts to keep the UK in the EU. So we will have more uncertainty for the next two years, again not good for pound sterling.

I don't liove the EU and believe that it needs reform. On balance I think that the UK are better in than out. The EU will reform because if it doesn't it will fracture. I believe that the benefits of an exit are negligible.

Huge emphasis has been laid on the "future unknown" factor if Britain pulls out of the EU, by the "Bremainers". But the countervailing premise is exactly the same, in that the future unknown applies equally to Britain remaining in the EU.

The huge migration of Syrians (and others), with the enormous pressures it is bringing upon mainland Europe, is something of a Black Swan. It came out of left field. And the response, led by Angela Merkel, has been woeful. Similarly the crisis in Greece. What other crises may arise in the future, which will likewise have a ineffectual response by the EU political leadership?

If, as your sensible post argues, the EU not only needs, but HAS to reform, in order to save itself, then it begs the question "what is going to be the catalyst"? On present (and past) performance, radical reform is highly unlikely. There is no "leader" worthy of mention, and, in fact, the EU is not well structured or equipped to deliver one. Love her or hate her, the EU needs a "Maggie Thatcher"; there is not one on the horizon.

If, as your post observes, the EU "as it stands is a failure", why on earth would Britain stay in, given this historic, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get out. It is totally counter-intuitive?

Most "Brexiteers" understand this, in their gut, and don't need the benefits of a higher education to suss it out (despite what a few posters on this forum would like us to believe). Brexit is a vote for common sense, if nothing else!

I just wonder how many of those who wish to remain in this corrupt organisation,are aware of the countries who have applied to join the EU Let's start of with these- ImageUploadedByThaivisa Connect1463228080.345696.jpg

It's worth knowing, The Bureaucrats in Brussels have promised to "re-energise

Turkeys application to join the EU in thanks to Turkeys help in the recent migrants crises. This is in addition to the EU paying a large amount to Turkey for this so called help. The U.K. Portion of this black male was £640,000,000.

Now we are informed that the UK will have to pay a further 1.8 billion by 2020 to actually encourage these countries to join the EU. And When these countries do join, many of their workers who are paid a pittance compared with UK workers are sure to want to take advantage of the free movement of labour within the Union and migrates to the U.K. What effect will this have, especially on the lower levels of the economic rung,

I'm not paying 640,000,000 for any black male!

Edited May 15, 2016 by Scott

[chiang mai]

Playing the intelligence card in this debate is tacky and crass, last gasp tactics and a sign of a failed argument!

It seems that many of us have misconceptions about what Europe is and is not, the reasons for that are much more likely to be something other than intelligence.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/most-people-have-no-idea-how-many-countries-are-in-the-eu-survey-says-a7029711.html

[chiang mai]

Brexit, fewer migrants and a smaller economy or Remain with a wealthier population, they seem to be the two choices:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/14/britain-must-choose-between-migration-and-its-economy/

If indeed those are the two key issues then we will certainly Remain, the population is far too greedy to leave.

[BaldPlumber]

David Cameron believes be may have negotiated a temporary "stay of execution" as far as future migration

is concerned. It remains to be seen, of course. When push comes to shove, Mr Cameron may find that the

chips become stacked against him by the EU commissioners. We will then see how the Exchequer copes

with the future demands on the NHS and other Social Services, without raising taxes or other imposts on the

British people.

I think David Cameron and the Bremainers are yet to appreciate the capacity for duplicity in groups who have no perceived contractual, moral or legal responsibility to act as they allegedly agreed to.

As long as vastly disproportionate non contributory benefits are extended to all and sundry it is quite obvious that wealthier countries will be targeted by highly mobile, unqualified, uneducated and unneeded people and their dependents from participating member states.

I would do exactly the same if I were in their position.

[BaldPlumber]

Copied from comments on sky news.

Eighty Commonwealth community and business leaders have written an open letter to the PM lobbying for Brexit as they believe membership of the EU restricts British world trade. They claim that the EU's control of British trade policy stops the UK from negotiating its own trade deals outside the EU. (the commonwealth group also complained of the EU's discriminatory migration practices which favour EU citizens over world citizens)

Barclays Bank analysts have come to the conclusion that Brexit could make Britain a "safe haven" from a disintegrating EU, and dissuade Scotland from breaking away from the relative safety of the UK.

70% of Chief Financial Officers (CFO's) say that Brexit would NOT damage global business with the UK. CFO's are the senior managers responsible for overseeing the financial activities of entire companies.

Boeing, the worlds largest aircraft maker, has picked Britain as home for its new European headquarters regardless of Brexit. Boeing shrugged off concerns about a UK exit from the EU and selected London as the base for its entire European operation. Boeing currently employs approximately 2,000 staff and has also invested £1.8billion in the country.

Multibillion dollar cosmetics giant Avon is relocating its headquarters to Britain from the US after 130-years, regardless of Brexit. Avon said the move will help the company maximise direct connections to its global operations through a UK base.

Vicky Redwood, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, has said that Brexit will not stop the City from prospering. She stated that the City could nonetheless "still prosper if the UK left the EU", noting that London's reputation as a global finance centre predates the Single Market.

The CBI has conceded defeat in its economic arguments to remain in the EU, following the publication of a study it commissioned from PwC, which revealed that economic growth will be higher in the long-term if we leave the EU. It's an admission that higher costs through taxes and regulatory compliance makes us less competitive than we should be.

HSBC and Toyota have declared they are staying in the UK in the event of Brexit.

Lord Blackwell, chairman of Lloyds Banking Group and former advisor to two Prime Ministers, has said that the UK-EU relationship is increasingly unsustainable. He adds that Brexit will NOT hurt the UK economy.

Norway's $830billion wealth fund, the worlds largest, has stated that Brexit is NOT a significant risk. Yngve Slyngstad, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, has said "we will continue to be a significant investor in the UK at about the same level as we are today and probably even increasing our investments there going forward no matter what happens."

Willie Walsh, Chief Executive of International Airlines Group, which includes BA, has dismissed the 'remain' campaigns scaremongering and argued that Brexit will have no economic impact.

John Longworth, director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), has said Britain would be better off outside the EU. In a speech at the BCC annual conference in London, Mr. Longworth said the UK could create a "brighter economic future for itself" outside the EU. He has since resigned in order to continue his support for Brexit.

One of Britains most influential fund managers, Neil Woodford (BAE Systems, GlaxoSmithKline and BT), has commissioned research from consultancy Capital Economics which shows no lasting negative impact on the UK. It even shows possible economic benefits from Brexit.

Mark Littlewood, director-general of the Institute for Economic Affairs, believes that the UK will be better off outside the EU. He explained his views in a video for the BBC's Daily Politics (10/03/16).

Sir James Dyson, inventor and vacuum cleaner tycoon, has stated he believes the UK should quit the EU.

The boss of Wetherspoons has declared that he believes the UK can thrive outside the EU.

The former HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan, and the founders of JML, Reebok and Phones4U all support Brexit, as does the CEO of Legal and General, the CEO of Numis Securities and the boss of Odey Asset Management.

Ruth Lea - economic advisor to the Arbuthnot Banking Group - says the UK should leave "an increasingly dysfunctional EU", and that Britain can thrive post-Brexit.

Jim Mellon - entrepreneur, investor and chairman of Burnbrae Group - supports Brexit, saying the UK should leave Europe before the "inevitable eurozone meltdown".

Frances Dickens - entrepreneur, co-founder and Chief Executive of Astus Group - supports Brexit, saying that Brexit could offer school-leavers a rare opportunity for better jobs, better wages and better chances to set up their own businesses.

Peter Hargreaves, co-founder of FTSE 100 stockbroker Hargreaves Lansdown, has said he supports Brexit. He has said that a British exit from the EU could help stimulate Britain, with a fresh start helping the nation to innovate. He said concerns about leaving the EU were overblown. He has sent a letter to two in three UK households, urging them to back Brexit. In the letter, Mr. Hargreaves urges voters to ignore "heads of big institutions whose cushy lives will be disrupted by change" and listen to entrepreneurs who back Brexit.

The RMT Union will campaign for Brexit from a "pro-austerity, anti-worker" European Union. In a statement, RMT's general secretary Mike Cash said: "EU policies are at odds with the aspirations of this union as the various treaties and directives are demanding the privatisation of our rail and ferry industries". He added that the EU was negotiating secret trade deals "which will decimate our health and education sectors, and hand huge powers to transnational corporations over nation states and their governments".

ASLEF, the train drivers union, is campaigning for Brexit. It says that workers rights offered by Brussels are "far outweighed and undermined by the benefits given to big business and banking".

The 20,000 strong Bakers, Food and Allied Workers Union (BFAWU) also supports Brexit.

Winterflood Securities founder, Brian Winterflood, is backing Brexit. His son, Guy Winterflood, is a serial tech-entrepreneur currently running data firm Letyano, and he also backs Brexit. Other son, Mark Winterflood, is a private banker at HSBC and also supports Brexit.

[brewsterbudgen]

Brexit, fewer migrants and a smaller economy or Remain with a wealthier population, they seem to be the two choices:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/14/britain-must-choose-between-migration-and-its-economy/

If indeed those are the two key issues then we will certainly Remain, the population is far too greedy to leave.

I'd substitute "sensible" for "greedy"! But hope you're right.

[chiang mai]

Brexit, fewer migrants and a smaller economy or Remain with a wealthier population, they seem to be the two choices:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/14/britain-must-choose-between-migration-and-its-economy/

If indeed those are the two key issues then we will certainly Remain, the population is far too greedy to leave.

I'd substitute "sensible" for "greedy"! But hope you're right.

We can agree to disagree on that but the fact remains that personal wealth considerations will override ALL other factors.

[Grouse]

If it ain't broke don't Brexit

http://www.economist.com/Brexit

More sensible stuff from The Economist

(Limited free online access)

[SussexExpat]

Copied from comments on sky news.

Eighty Commonwealth community and business leaders have written an open letter to the PM lobbying for Brexit as they believe membership of the EU restricts British world trade. They claim that the EU's control of British trade policy stops the UK from negotiating its own trade deals outside the EU. (the commonwealth group also complained of the EU's discriminatory migration practices which favour EU citizens over world citizens)

Barclays Bank analysts have come to the conclusion that Brexit could make Britain a "safe haven" from a disintegrating EU, and dissuade Scotland from breaking away from the relative safety of the UK.

70% of Chief Financial Officers (CFO's) say that Brexit would NOT damage global business with the UK. CFO's are the senior managers responsible for overseeing the financial activities of entire companies.

Boeing, the worlds largest aircraft maker, has picked Britain as home for its new European headquarters regardless of Brexit. Boeing shrugged off concerns about a UK exit from the EU and selected London as the base for its entire European operation. Boeing currently employs approximately 2,000 staff and has also invested £1.8billion in the country.

Multibillion dollar cosmetics giant Avon is relocating its headquarters to Britain from the US after 130-years, regardless of Brexit. Avon said the move will help the company maximise direct connections to its global operations through a UK base.

Vicky Redwood, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, has said that Brexit will not stop the City from prospering. She stated that the City could nonetheless "still prosper if the UK left the EU", noting that London's reputation as a global finance centre predates the Single Market.

The CBI has conceded defeat in its economic arguments to remain in the EU, following the publication of a study it commissioned from PwC, which revealed that economic growth will be higher in the long-term if we leave the EU. It's an admission that higher costs through taxes and regulatory compliance makes us less competitive than we should be.

HSBC and Toyota have declared they are staying in the UK in the event of Brexit.

Lord Blackwell, chairman of Lloyds Banking Group and former advisor to two Prime Ministers, has said that the UK-EU relationship is increasingly unsustainable. He adds that Brexit will NOT hurt the UK economy.

Norway's $830billion wealth fund, the worlds largest, has stated that Brexit is NOT a significant risk. Yngve Slyngstad, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, has said "we will continue to be a significant investor in the UK at about the same level as we are today and probably even increasing our investments there going forward no matter what happens."

Willie Walsh, Chief Executive of International Airlines Group, which includes BA, has dismissed the 'remain' campaigns scaremongering and argued that Brexit will have no economic impact.

John Longworth, director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), has said Britain would be better off outside the EU. In a speech at the BCC annual conference in London, Mr. Longworth said the UK could create a "brighter economic future for itself" outside the EU. He has since resigned in order to continue his support for Brexit.

One of Britains most influential fund managers, Neil Woodford (BAE Systems, GlaxoSmithKline and BT), has commissioned research from consultancy Capital Economics which shows no lasting negative impact on the UK. It even shows possible economic benefits from Brexit.

Mark Littlewood, director-general of the Institute for Economic Affairs, believes that the UK will be better off outside the EU. He explained his views in a video for the BBC's Daily Politics (10/03/16).

Sir James Dyson, inventor and vacuum cleaner tycoon, has stated he believes the UK should quit the EU.

The boss of Wetherspoons has declared that he believes the UK can thrive outside the EU.

The former HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan, and the founders of JML, Reebok and Phones4U all support Brexit, as does the CEO of Legal and General, the CEO of Numis Securities and the boss of Odey Asset Management.

Ruth Lea - economic advisor to the Arbuthnot Banking Group - says the UK should leave "an increasingly dysfunctional EU", and that Britain can thrive post-Brexit.

Jim Mellon - entrepreneur, investor and chairman of Burnbrae Group - supports Brexit, saying the UK should leave Europe before the "inevitable eurozone meltdown".

Frances Dickens - entrepreneur, co-founder and Chief Executive of Astus Group - supports Brexit, saying that Brexit could offer school-leavers a rare opportunity for better jobs, better wages and better chances to set up their own businesses.

Peter Hargreaves, co-founder of FTSE 100 stockbroker Hargreaves Lansdown, has said he supports Brexit. He has said that a British exit from the EU could help stimulate Britain, with a fresh start helping the nation to innovate. He said concerns about leaving the EU were overblown. He has sent a letter to two in three UK households, urging them to back Brexit. In the letter, Mr. Hargreaves urges voters to ignore "heads of big institutions whose cushy lives will be disrupted by change" and listen to entrepreneurs who back Brexit.

The RMT Union will campaign for Brexit from a "pro-austerity, anti-worker" European Union. In a statement, RMT's general secretary Mike Cash said: "EU policies are at odds with the aspirations of this union as the various treaties and directives are demanding the privatisation of our rail and ferry industries". He added that the EU was negotiating secret trade deals "which will decimate our health and education sectors, and hand huge powers to transnational corporations over nation states and their governments".

ASLEF, the train drivers union, is campaigning for Brexit. It says that workers rights offered by Brussels are "far outweighed and undermined by the benefits given to big business and banking".

The 20,000 strong Bakers, Food and Allied Workers Union (BFAWU) also supports Brexit.

Winterflood Securities founder, Brian Winterflood, is backing Brexit. His son, Guy Winterflood, is a serial tech-entrepreneur currently running data firm Letyano, and he also backs Brexit. Other son, Mark Winterflood, is a private banker at HSBC and also supports Brexit.

I find it hard to believe that all those people mentioned above are uneducated!

[Grouse]

Well, we've been debating this on here for a month now - 30 pages!

I mentioned at the start that there was a correlation between being pro-EU and education level. That still stands. Go ahead and shoot the messenger if you like, it changes nothing. There will be a Gaussian distribution as usual but there will be outliers. So what. If you have tertiary education you are more likely to be pro remain.

The other thing I mentioned was there seemed to be too much ill informed opinion. I reckon the information provided has mitigated that.

For me, I have been pulled toward remain by the deluge of expert opinion but pulled toward Brexit by the revelations about our useless border service that fails to track departures and arrivals

Final result will be interesting

Thanks for all the informative contributions from both sides ?

[BaldPlumber]

I'm pretty sure the thickos outnumber the intelligentsia in the UK.

I'm worried though, that their attention span might not match the worthies who have been bestowed with critical thinking abilities during their time at uni getting a 2:2 in street mime.

I just hope they can drag themselves away from Eastenders or whippet fancying or whatever it is that the great unwashed do, in order to vote on the 23rd.

[nontabury]

It is impossible to predict whether Leaving the EU would benefit the UK over a 5-20 year period, there are too many variables to weigh and consider. What I find strange is that many people on both sides speak with absolute certainty about what the outcome would be? The truth is that no one really knows. The EU set up as it stands is a failure, and is in need of reform. Frau Merkel et al are not exactly wowing the voters with their immigration policies and the Southern Europeans are suffering within the Euro block. It looks to me that something will have to give for the EU to survive and That might be for the better for everyone.

In the short run, an exit from the EU by the UK will cause the pound sterling to fall as well as world financial markets. If you are staying in Thailand that will make life more expensive. The negotiation takes two years and within that time there will be attempts to keep the UK in the EU. So we will have more uncertainty for the next two years, again not good for pound sterling.

I don't liove the EU and believe that it needs reform. On balance I think that the UK are better in than out. The EU will reform because if it doesn't it will fracture. I believe that the benefits of an exit are negligible.

Huge emphasis has been laid on the "future unknown" factor if Britain pulls out of the EU, by the "Bremainers". But the countervailing premise is exactly the same, in that the future unknown applies equally to Britain remaining in the EU.

The huge migration of Syrians (and others), with the enormous pressures it is bringing upon mainland Europe, is something of a Black Swan. It came out of left field. And the response, led by Angela Merkel, has been woeful. Similarly the crisis in Greece. What other crises may arise in the future, which will likewise have a ineffectual response by the EU political leadership?

If, as your sensible post argues, the EU not only needs, but HAS to reform, in order to save itself, then it begs the question "what is going to be the catalyst"? On present (and past) performance, radical reform is highly unlikely. There is no "leader" worthy of mention, and, in fact, the EU is not well structured or equipped to deliver one. Love her or hate her, the EU needs a "Maggie Thatcher"; there is not one on the horizon.

If, as your post observes, the EU "as it stands is a failure", why on earth would Britain stay in, given this historic, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get out. It is totally counter-intuitive?

Most "Brexiteers" understand this, in their gut, and don't need the benefits of a higher education to suss it out (despite what a few posters on this forum would like us to believe). Brexit is a vote for common sense, if nothing else!

I just wonder how many of those who wish to remain in this corrupt organisation,are aware of the countries who have applied to join the EU Let's start of with these- ImageUploadedByThaivisa Connect1463228080.345696.jpg

It's worth knowing, The Bureaucrats in Brussels have promised to "re-energise

Turkeys application to join the EU in thanks to Turkeys help in the recent migrants crises. This is in addition to the EU paying a large amount to Turkey for this so called help. The U.K. Portion of this black male was £640,000,000.

Now we are informed that the UK will have to pay a further 1.8 billion by 2020 to actually encourage these countries to join the EU. And When these countries do join, many of their workers who are paid a pittance compared with UK workers are sure to want to take advantage of the free movement of labour within the Union and migrates to the U.K. What effect will this have, especially on the lower levels of the economic rung,

I'm not paying 640,000,000 for any black male!

O.K. So I should't post late at night after a few bevies. [emoji12][emoji12][emoji12]

Are you happy to be Blackmailed into paying into this £640,000,000. Would you not think this money could be better spent on the NHS, or in providing good quality primary education for British children.