Narrow defeat for Austria far-right as Van der Bellen elected president

[webfact]

Narrow defeat for Austria far-right as Van der Bellen elected president
By Alasdair Sandford | With REUTERS, APA



"I think we can interpret this tie in this way: We are equal. One half is as important as the other. I could say, you are as important as me and I am as important as you. And together we constitute this beautiful Austria"

VIENNA: -- Alexander Van der Bellen has narrowly won the Austrian presidential election.

With all the votes in, Van der Bellen, an economist, had 50.3 percent of the vote, with his far-right rival on 49.7 percent. The result of Sunday’s presidential run-off was announced by the interior ministry on Monday afternoon.

The 72-year-old independent candidate, who has the backing of the Green Party, had been almost neck-and-neck with the Freedom Party’s Norbert Hofer overnight. It came down to the wire, with the counting of postal votes the decisive factor.

The president has a largely ceremonial role but this election was hugely symbolic – the migrant crisis having prompted the collapse of the political centre and the rise of populist right wing.

After a bruising, divisive campaign the winning candidate made an early attempt to heal wounds as he spoke to reporters in the garden of his campaign headquarters.

“I think we can interpret this tie in this way: We are equal. One half is as important as the other. I could say, you are as important as me and I am as important as you. And together we constitute this beautiful Austria,” Ven der Bellen said.

Hofer, 45, who campaigned on an anti-immigration platform, conceded defeat via his Facebook account, saying it had been a “sad day”.

Alexander Van der Bellen had urged voters to support “an open, Europe-friendly, Europe-conscious Austria”. The son of refugees who fled Stalin, he said he had experienced Austria’s rise from the ruins of World War II which he said had been “caused by the madness of nationalism”.

He had trailed Hofer by 14 points in the first round of the presidential election, that saw the collapse of the the two mainstream parties which had dominated the country’s post-war politics.

Van der Bellen trailed Hofer again after ballot booth votes were counted in Sunday’s presidential run-off, by 3.8 percent. But the inclusion of postal votes – representing around a sixth of the electorate – swung the outcome in his favour, and he finished some 31,000 votes ahead.

The breakdown of the results suggested a split between urban areas, where a majority of voters backed Van der Bellen – and the countryside, where most people were for Hofer.

The campaign focused heavily on Europe’s migrant crisis. Austria has seen soaring numbers of asylum seekers and hundreds of thousands have crossed into Germany.

Hofer campaigned on the slogan “Austria First”. His anti-EU, anti-immigrant Freedom Party has toned down its rhetoric but Hofer has sported symbols associated with Austria’s nationalist and Nazi past.

Despite his election defeat, the success of the Freedom Party (FPO) in getting so far will have given a boost to other populist parties in Europe.

-- (c) Copyright Euronews 2016-05-24

[nausea]

The writing is on the wall.

[Scott]

Troll post removed. Continue at your own peril.

[ace]

51.9% to 48.1% in favour of Hofer prior to the postal count. Maximum 12% of electorate used postal vote, likely less. Hofer loses by 1/2 % after the postal count. So approximately 75% of postal voters apparently voted green. I'll run the stats on that later but I'm pretty sure it's way over 2nd standard deviation (<5% probability). If i lost like that I'd launch a legal investigation right away.

[SheungWan]

51.9% to 48.1% in favour of Hofer prior to the postal count. Maximum 12% of electorate used postal vote, likely less. Hofer loses by 1/2 % after the postal count. So approximately 75% of postal voters apparently voted green. I'll run the stats on that later but I'm pretty sure it's way over 2nd standard deviation (<5% probability). If i lost like that I'd launch a legal investigation right away.

Hofer won 35% in the first round. Van der Bellen standing not as Green but united candidate against far-right candidate in round two. 900,000 postal votes reported requested.

Edited May 24, 2016 by SheungWan

[ace]

These are the numbers I have. I'm only working with 2nd round data so Bellen is assumed to be the only opposition to Hofer.

Votes = 4,477,942 Bellen=50.3 to Hofer=49.7

Difference= 0.6% 26,867

Bellen = 2,252,404 Hofer = 2,225,537

Votes non postal = 3,777,942 Bellen=48.1 to Hofer=51.9

Difference= 3.8% 143,561

Bellen = 1,817,190 Hofer = 1,960,751

Postal = 700,000

Difference= c.25%

Bellen = 435,214 (approx 62.5%) Hofer = 264,786 (approx 37.5%)

I'm a bit tired today so having difficulty figuring out the correct statistical test to use. It's really odd to have a switch from +3.8% to -25% over such a large data set, I'm not even sure how to check it. I actually emailed 538.com to ask them!

[BuaBS]

Yuk ! Just like the Scottish vote , now the Austrians and soon the Brexit vote. Manipulated .

[Publicus]

No one in Europe is to the right of the now defeated Austrian Freedom Party which lost this election.

Anyone in a democracy can question a close vote, as this vote was. The test of being a democrat who believes in elections is to accept the outcome then to move on with a view to the next election.

In the meantime there is Vladimir Putin and the Austrian Freedom Party....

januari 31, 2016

American intelligence agencies are to conduct a major investigation into how the Kremlin is infiltrating political parties in Europe.

James Clapper, the US Director of National Intelligence, has been instructed by the US Congress to conduct a major review into Russian clandestine funding of European parties over the last decade.

Cases of possible Moscow-backed destabilisation being monitored by diplomats includes extensive links in Austria, including a visit by Austrian MPs to Crimea to endorse its annexation, as well as cases of Russian spies discovered using Austrian papers.

The review reflects mounting concerns in Washington over Moscow’s determination to exploit European disunity in order to undermine Nato, block US missile defence programmes and revoke the punitive economic sanctions regime imposed after the annexation of Crimea.

http://www.coalitionfordefense.com/russia-accused-of-clandestine-funding-of-european-parties-as-us-conducts-major-review-of-vladimir-putins-strategy/

[ujayujay]

Yuk ! Just like the Scottish vote , now the Austrians and soon the Brexit vote. Manipulated .

What a Democrat. Can not respecting a result, because it is not in his mind ..... pathetic bad loser! Brainwashed by right thinking.

[ilostmypassword]

These are the numbers I have. I'm only working with 2nd round data so Bellen is assumed to be the only opposition to Hofer.

Votes = 4,477,942 Bellen=50.3 to Hofer=49.7

Difference= 0.6% 26,867

Bellen = 2,252,404 Hofer = 2,225,537

Votes non postal = 3,777,942 Bellen=48.1 to Hofer=51.9

Difference= 3.8% 143,561

Bellen = 1,817,190 Hofer = 1,960,751

Postal = 700,000

Difference= c.25%

Bellen = 435,214 (approx 62.5%) Hofer = 264,786 (approx 37.5%)

I'm a bit tired today so having difficulty figuring out the correct statistical test to use. It's really odd to have a switch from +3.8% to -25% over such a large data set, I'm not even sure how to check it. I actually emailed 538.com to ask them!

Not exactly a Bayesian approach you're taking, is it? To do this properly you would have to investigate why those people who chose the postal method might differ from the general population, Pure math doesn't cut it here.

[lungbing]

As soon as it was announced that postal votes would decide it I knew Hofer would lose. They are too easily manipulated.

[ace]

.....

Not exactly a Bayesian approach you're taking, is it? To do this properly you would have to investigate why those people who chose the postal method might differ from the general population, Pure math doesn't cut it here.

A Bayesian approach might look at the usual margin of error in political vote polls, around +/- 3% and expect that to be a maximum for a poll of 700,000. So +0.8% - 6.8% for Hofer in the postal vote. Here we have -25%, a swing of 28.8%, an expressed deviation of 10.6% in a much larger sample size (it's the full population over the 2 numbers of course), or c.300% x expected MoE in a much smaller sample. And still with an unlikely 10.6% SD we are in 3SD (99th percentile, <1% likely).

You tell me, what possible difference between postal voters and resident voters could account for such an unprecedented variation? I suppose it might be that Austrian expats live mostly in Europe and love it. You're right that there could be a cause. In fact it would be the only other answer (the first being that the postal vote was fixed) But it seems very suspect.

My opinion, English postal voters would in fact lean to the right (I'm a Brit).

Edited May 25, 2016 by ace

[stevenl]

No one in Europe is to the right of the now defeated Austrian Freedom Party which lost this election.

Anyone in a democracy can question a close vote, as this vote was. The test of being a democrat who believes in elections is to accept the outcome then to move on with a view to the next election.

In the meantime there is Vladimir Putin and the Austrian Freedom Party....

januari 31, 2016

American intelligence agencies are to conduct a major investigation into how the Kremlin is infiltrating political parties in Europe.

James Clapper, the US Director of National Intelligence, has been instructed by the US Congress to conduct a major review into Russian clandestine funding of European parties over the last decade.

Cases of possible Moscow-backed destabilisation being monitored by diplomats includes extensive links in Austria, including a visit by Austrian MPs to Crimea to endorse its annexation, as well as cases of Russian spies discovered using Austrian papers.

The review reflects mounting concerns in Washington over Moscow’s determination to exploit European disunity in order to undermine Nato, block US missile defence programmes and revoke the punitive economic sanctions regime imposed after the annexation of Crimea.

http://www.coalitionfordefense.com/russia-accused-of-clandestine-funding-of-european-parties-as-us-conducts-major-review-of-vladimir-putins-strategy/

I would not call it extreme right. FPO, and the same goes for Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and the National Front in France, are much more populistic than right wing. Yes, their stance on immigration and Europe can be called right wing, but on social issues they tend to be much more to the left of the political center in the respective countries.

To a certain extend the same can be said for Donald Trump in the USA.

[SheungWan]

No one in Europe is to the right of the now defeated Austrian Freedom Party which lost this election.

Anyone in a democracy can question a close vote, as this vote was. The test of being a democrat who believes in elections is to accept the outcome then to move on with a view to the next election.

In the meantime there is Vladimir Putin and the Austrian Freedom Party....

januari 31, 2016

American intelligence agencies are to conduct a major investigation into how the Kremlin is infiltrating political parties in Europe.

James Clapper, the US Director of National Intelligence, has been instructed by the US Congress to conduct a major review into Russian clandestine funding of European parties over the last decade.

Cases of possible Moscow-backed destabilisation being monitored by diplomats includes extensive links in Austria, including a visit by Austrian MPs to Crimea to endorse its annexation, as well as cases of Russian spies discovered using Austrian papers.

The review reflects mounting concerns in Washington over Moscow’s determination to exploit European disunity in order to undermine Nato, block US missile defence programmes and revoke the punitive economic sanctions regime imposed after the annexation of Crimea.

http://www.coalitionfordefense.com/russia-accused-of-clandestine-funding-of-european-parties-as-us-conducts-major-review-of-vladimir-putins-strategy/

I would not call it extreme right. FPO, and the same goes for Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and the National Front in France, are much more populistic than right wing. Yes, their stance on immigration and Europe can be called right wing, but on social issues they tend to be much more to the left of the political center in the respective countries.

To a certain extend the same can be said for Donald Trump in the USA.

The National Front in France has historic links to supporters of the Vichy Regime in WW2. A little research might prevent similar shallow comments in the future. You might want to argue that Ms Le Pen has decisively broken with her fascist father but to pretend that it is purely a populist party without referencing its historic politics is a no sell.

[Saradoc1972]

.....

Not exactly a Bayesian approach you're taking, is it? To do this properly you would have to investigate why those people who chose the postal method might differ from the general population, Pure math doesn't cut it here.

A Bayesian approach might look at the usual margin of error in political vote polls, around +/- 3% and expect that to be a maximum for a poll of 700,000. So +0.8% - 6.8% for Hofer in the postal vote. Here we have -25%, a swing of 28.8%, an expressed deviation of 10.6% in a much larger sample size (it's the full population over the 2 numbers of course), or c.300% x expected MoE in a much smaller sample. And still with an unlikely 10.6% SD we are in 3SD (99th percentile, <1% likely).

You tell me, what possible difference between postal voters and resident voters could account for such an unprecedented variation? I suppose it might be that Austrian expats live mostly in Europe and love it. You're right that there could be a cause. In fact it would be the only other answer (the first being that the postal vote was fixed) But it seems very suspect.

My opinion, English postal voters would in fact lean to the right (I'm a Brit).

From what I have read, postal voters in Austria tend to vote leftist, apparently always has been that way.

From Germany I know that when it was a 3-party system until the 90ies without postal ballots, the weather on the Sunday the election was being held had a huge impact on the turnout. Good weather meant better chances for centre-right CDU, old geezers would get their walking aids and leg it to the ballot box, bad weather meant better turnout for Social-Democrats, old geezers would stay home. So, it's only Germany, but still, if a certain group of people likes postal voting for health reasons, and in Austria those are the workers, i.e. socialist/greens.... yeah, might be a bias. And many expats might not have had the pleasure with the more active refugees around Vienna first-hand and rely on lovey-dovey press-articles, so another reason for a bias.