New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[JB300]

Don't do it CM it will get better, a few less leo's don't panic!!

This is brilliant

the requirement for retirees to have 800,000 baht in the bank is a step too far for some.

800,000 Baht in the bank is 800,000 Baht in the bank. Regardless of where the £ goes.

But 65,000 income requirement goes up from £1,300 per month at 50:1 THB:GBP to £1,625 per month at 40:1 (if the muted 20% drop happens).

CM did miss one demographic though, those working overseas will get more GBP when shipping money back & we'll all have cheaper trips back.

Though this applies to me, I'm still in the Remain camp but will be shipping a bucket load of cash back if the pound does plummet.

JB.

I did not dispute this, I never even mentioned it.

My post pertained to 800.000 Baht sitting in a Thai bank. Which will not change regardless of where the £ goes, exchange rate fluctuations or anything else.

I will be more than ecstatic to see a rate of £1 = US $ 1 even though I can appreciate that it will be bad for some others.

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply you did, was just highlighting that some guys might find that they can't meet the retirement extension requirements if sterling does plummet as the UK Embassy is one of the few that insist on proof of income (I believe the US just takes their citizens word for it).

£1 = SGD $1 would be even better for me as most of my cash is sat in a bank account in Singapore

Edit: But I hope the £ quickly stabilises somewhere around 50-55 THB (more would be nice) for the sake of any older Expats who are already feeling the pain from reduced dividends/interest on bank accounts & frozen pensions.

Edited June 15, 2016 by JB300

[chiang mai]

Meanwhile, the UK onshore and offshore populations, elated at their country's new found freedom, start to make their plans for the coming year(s):

For the onshore group this means tightening the purse strings as interest rates are going to rise, imported goods become more expensive and mortgage rates increase - holidays abroad are cancelled as a result of the poor exchange rates, pensioners are forced to tighten their already tight belts as the value of pension funds and draw downs decreases.

The offshore group fares similarly, foreign currency exchange rates means UK pensions and investments translate into fewer Baht per Pound - the requirement for retirees to have 800,000 baht in the bank is a step too far for some. For many this is the straw that broke the camels back and they have to return to the UK leaving behind them partners and extended families and their overseas homes for some of more than twenty years - faced with such a loss so late in life, the suicide rate amongst expats increases.

C.M you're becoming embarrassing. What absolute rubbish.Just admit, Brexit will be the best for the UK,and even more importantly for the British people.

Maybe it will be good for the British people, in many years to come, say in one or two generations perhaps, in the meantime it's going to be extremely bad for many pensioners in various countries around the world.

[SgtRock]

EU referendum live: 57 Tory MPs 'would vote against' Osborne's Brexit budget

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/15/eu-referendum-live-osborne-punishment-budget-farage-flotilla-thames

I think Osborne has just committed Political suicide.

[JB300]

Brexit - Truth Squadding the arguments...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-19/fact-fiction-and-brexit-truth-squadding-the-arguments

[chiang mai]

This is brilliant

the requirement for retirees to have 800,000 baht in the bank is a step too far for some.

800,000 Baht in the bank is 800,000 Baht in the bank. Regardless of where the £ goes.

I know how you are with numbers Rock so I'll spell it out for you more clearly:

The UK pension is banked in Pounds and then converted to Thai Baht at a rate that is around 20% lower than it was previously, ditto private pensions, investment income and drawdown. Faced with a loss of 20% of their income many are forced to dip into their 800k account in the hope that things will improve, they don't hence the 800k cannot be reconstituted in time for visa extension.

Would be retirees who are still in the UK and planning their new life in Thailand are forced to curtail retirement plans, wives and partners are at a loss what to do/think.

Leo's: naw, I don't do alcohol and I'm actually very OK for Baht personally, I have over ten years on hand in banks here - others (many) have only a few thousand and live from pension payment to pension payment, we've seen evidence of this repeatedly over the years as the exchange rates have moved against the Pound..

That is an absolutely fantastic explanation CM. Well done. I might have struggled to work any of that out given my limited education.

It is a pity that your SUPERIOR education completely ignores my post, which was 800,000 Baht in the bank is 800,000 Baht in the bank regardless of where the £ goes.

Now if you want to discuss all those other things like drawdowns, Thai Baht rates or anything else, I am all ears. Providing you can read, digest and understand what is actually posted, rather than what you think is posted.

I knew that, that's I'm happy to help where ever I can.

[chiang mai]

This is brilliant

the requirement for retirees to have 800,000 baht in the bank is a step too far for some.

800,000 Baht in the bank is 800,000 Baht in the bank. Regardless of where the £ goes.

I know how you are with numbers Rock so I'll spell it out for you more clearly:

The UK pension is banked in Pounds and then converted to Thai Baht at a rate that is around 20% lower than it was previously, ditto private pensions, investment income and drawdown. Faced with a loss of 20% of their income many are forced to dip into their 800k account in the hope that things will improve, they don't hence the 800k cannot be reconstituted in time for visa extension.

Would be retirees who are still in the UK and planning their new life in Thailand are forced to curtail retirement plans, wives and partners are at a loss what to do/think.

Leo's: naw, I don't do alcohol and I'm actually very OK for Baht personally, I have over ten years on hand in banks here - others (many) have only a few thousand and live from pension payment to pension payment, we've seen evidence of this repeatedly over the years as the exchange rates have moved against the Pound..

That is an absolutely fantastic explanation CM. Well done. I might have struggled to work any of that out given my limited education.

It is a pity that your SUPERIOR education completely ignores my post, which was 800,000 Baht in the bank is 800,000 Baht in the bank regardless of where the £ goes.

Now if you want to discuss all those other things like drawdowns, Thai Baht rates or anything else, I am all ears. Providing you can read, digest and understand what is actually posted, rather than what you think is posted.

Double Post - delete

Edited June 15, 2016 by chiang mai

[SgtRock]

That is an absolutely fantastic explanation CM. Well done. I might have struggled to work any of that out given my limited education.

It is a pity that your SUPERIOR education completely ignores my post, which was 800,000 Baht in the bank is 800,000 Baht in the bank regardless of where the £ goes.

Now if you want to discuss all those other things like drawdowns, Thai Baht rates or anything else, I am all ears. Providing you can read, digest and understand what is actually posted, rather than what you think is posted.

I knew that, that's I'm happy to help where ever I can.

Your powers of discussion are truly amazing, but they actually bring nothing to the topic.

Have you got an answer on yesterday's question yet ? I will post it again for you.

Today, do you believe that being a member of the EU costs the UK £12 Billion annually, less rebate, or is the cost different from this figure ?

That would certainly bring in a whole new range of discussion points to the topic.

If that is beyond you. Please feel free to heed your own advice.

Go away and don't come back.

[beautifulthailand99]

Over at oddschecker which is a summary of the betting they are suggesting a clear remain and they didn't get the Scottish Ref wrong. The wisdom of crowds and all that - will be a Remain and then all the excited new Briton's Jerusalem will have to go back into the toy box.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

[chiang mai]

There is no doubt in mind the vote will be to Remain. But it's fun watching and listening to Brexit's, cough, ahem, well reasoned arguments and finely tuned economic analysis.

It'll be even more fun reading what they have to say the day after the Referendum, seeds of conspiracy theories have already been planted.

Wheeee!

[SheungWan]

Nobody knows what will happen if a Brexit.....But for sure the UK will do it's stuff whatever....They ain't going to roll over, the businesses will still do they thing to carry on....For sure...

Lets get our country back, not give zillions of quid to EU sponger countries, they can do the same as UK folk have done to EXIST......

Quite amusing reading the BREXIT mantra of 'nobody knows', 'what goes down must come up' and all that. Expat sterling pensioners are going to take a bath, no two ways about it chums, but then economics is not exactly the forum LEAVE team's strongest point or interest for that matter.

[stag4]

The Eu is an economic basket case, a failed socialist experiment where the richer member states subsidise the poorer ones and there are plenty of those.

Remainiacs seem to be focusing on their own selfish interests, yes the pound will drop temporarily but after Brexit it will rally as the uncertainty will have past.

As has been stated before when the UK people vote to leave then the whole corrupt Fat Cat club will go the same way as the similar Soviet Union.

Even if Britain votes remain the EU is still doomed with crisis after crisis and more bailouts required and that's not even taking any new member states into the equation.

Worrying about the Pound, imagine if you had listened to all the same doomsayers and adopted the Euro!

Vote Leave

[allanos]

Pensions, drawdowns, investments and foreign exchange are being eroded:

"Shares in London hit a fresh three-month low on Tuesday as Brexit worries swept through the City, wiping £30bn off the value of blue-chip companies.

The FTSE 100 index closed down 121 points at 5923, its lowest level since late February, and its fourth day of heavy falls. Across the continent investors suffered a similar fate as shares plunged on most bourses, taking losses on the Eurostoxx 600 over the last five days to €600bn.

The pound also tumbled 1.2% to below $1.41, its lowest for two months, and the price of a barrel of oil fell $1 as concerns over the global economy sent investors rushing for havens.

The FTSE index of top shares has now shed 378 points since last Wednesday, when Brexit fears began to mount on polls showing the leave campaign taking an unexpected lead.

The pound has fallen by more than 12% since last November and could fall by anything between 15% and 30% after a vote to leave the EU, according to a range of economic forecasts."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/14/ftse-100-three-month-low-brexit-fears-shares-sterling

You really do enjoy peddling alarmist stuff (fear-mongering, so-called, or trolling).

Stock markets are up today in strong trade, and the pound (GBP) has outstripped the price it was trading at 24 hours ago.

As to your post's comment that the pound has fallen by 12% since November, 2015, did you get this off the back of a cereal box?

To give you the benefit of the doubt, the highest it was trading at in November was 1.52633 against USD. The lowest it has traded at today

is 1.40915, a difference of 11.718c. So, taking both extremes into account (in YOUR favour, in other words), the drop has been 7.677%

versus your claimed 12%; this is a 36% ERROR/MISTAKE on your part. In truth, and reality, the drop is reasonably around 5% - not a train

smash!

Of course, the Remain camp are good at making crass and unsubstantiated comments to support their statements. Consequently, we

should not be surprised at false numbers being published.

[WhamBam]

Mr Truell, one of the leading donors to the Tory party has now said he has stopped his donations, a move on from his earlier threat to do so according to this article.....

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/13/top-conservative-donor-withdraws-support-irresponsible-remain-campaign/

Edi Truell, a pensions advisor, said Mr Cameron’s warning this weekend over the alleged damage Brexit would do to pensions was the final straw in a long list of “unfair” claims by the Remain campaign.

[chiang mai]

Pensions, drawdowns, investments and foreign exchange are being eroded:

"Shares in London hit a fresh three-month low on Tuesday as Brexit worries swept through the City, wiping £30bn off the value of blue-chip companies.

The FTSE 100 index closed down 121 points at 5923, its lowest level since late February, and its fourth day of heavy falls. Across the continent investors suffered a similar fate as shares plunged on most bourses, taking losses on the Eurostoxx 600 over the last five days to €600bn.

The pound also tumbled 1.2% to below $1.41, its lowest for two months, and the price of a barrel of oil fell $1 as concerns over the global economy sent investors rushing for havens.

The FTSE index of top shares has now shed 378 points since last Wednesday, when Brexit fears began to mount on polls showing the leave campaign taking an unexpected lead.

The pound has fallen by more than 12% since last November and could fall by anything between 15% and 30% after a vote to leave the EU, according to a range of economic forecasts."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/14/ftse-100-three-month-low-brexit-fears-shares-sterling

You really do enjoy peddling alarmist stuff (fear-mongering, so-called, or trolling).

Stock markets are up today in strong trade, and the pound (GBP) has outstripped the price it was trading at 24 hours ago.

As to your post's comment that the pound has fallen by 12% since November, 2015, did you get this off the back of a cereal box?

To give you the benefit of the doubt, the highest it was trading at in November was 1.52633 against USD. The lowest it has traded at today

is 1.40915, a difference of 11.718c. So, taking both extremes into account (in YOUR favour, in other words), the drop has been 7.677%

versus your claimed 12%; this is a 36% ERROR/MISTAKE on your part. In truth, and reality, the drop is reasonably around 5% - not a train

smash!

Of course, the Remain camp are good at making crass and unsubstantiated comments to support their statements. Consequently, we

should not be surprised at false numbers being published.

I've no idea what you're prattling on about so next time post the link as to who said what when so that your post makes sense - no link and it's not true. Off the top of my head, GBP/USD was 1.38 on 1 March 2016, on 1 Nov 2015 it was 10% higher at 1.54, I'm guessing I probably wrote the words about or approx in whatever post that was. https://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

[chiang mai]

A comprehensive read on damage, sector by sector, really very detailed:

"In its Out and Down: mapping the impact of Brexit report, the EIU warned the damage from a decision to leave the EU would be felt until at least 2020.

Analysts at the thinktank claim the UK economy would shrink 1% next year in the event of Britain voting to leave in the 23 June referendum. That would be the first contraction in annual GDP since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.By 2020, the economy would be 6%, or £106bn, smaller than it would have been had it stayed in the EU, as the UK grappled with a “highly disruptive period in the country’s history”, the EIU said".

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/15/brexit-damage-uk-economy-eiu-vote-eu-recession

I know I know, it's all propaganda and scaremongering, zzzzzzzz!

[Thaiwine]

“The much greater risk is remaining within the EU, they’ve got explicit plans to destroy British pensions,” Mr Truell said.

“All the final salary funds will go bankrupt and their companies will go bankrupt supporting them, that’s about 8,000 pension funds in the private sector.”

Taken from WhamBam's link #953

[SgtRock]

A comprehensive read on damage, sector by sector, really very detailed:

"In its Out and Down: mapping the impact of Brexit report, the EIU warned the damage from a decision to leave the EU would be felt until at least 2020.

Analysts at the thinktank claim the UK economy would shrink 1% next year in the event of Britain voting to leave in the 23 June referendum. That would be the first contraction in annual GDP since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.By 2020, the economy would be 6%, or £106bn, smaller than it would have been had it stayed in the EU, as the UK grappled with a “highly disruptive period in the country’s history”, the EIU said".

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/15/brexit-damage-uk-economy-eiu-vote-eu-recession

I know I know, it's all propaganda and scaremongering, zzzzzzzz!

Where were they in 2007 / 08 ?

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz sleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeping soundly. But now they have got it 100% spot on.

You should have tried reading the comments. Everyone knows that there will be a financial impact, they just do not care.

A swift boot in the swingers is about to be delivered to the EU. This will be quickly followed by boots to the swingers of UK Politicians that do not extract the finger and start working for the benefit of the electorate and not big business.

Never had a job Cameron and economically illiterate Osborne being the first two to feel that swift boot.

[SheungWan]

Nobody knows what will happen if a Brexit.....But for sure the UK will do it's stuff whatever....They ain't going to roll over, the businesses will still do they thing to carry on....For sure...

Lets get our country back, not give zillions of quid to EU sponger countries, they can do the same as UK folk have done to EXIST......

Quite amusing reading the BREXIT mantra of 'nobody knows', 'what goes down must come up' and all that. Expat sterling pensioners are going to take a bath, no two ways about it chums, but then economics is not exactly the forum LEAVE team's strongest point or interest for that matter.

Well I for one don't care, I am not one of the rich guys here, but for sure I will get bye..

BUT, for me the UK is more important for our future generations, not looking after rich guys, polititions, immigrants, spongers that come from all over the world to milk the UK system that folk like me built up....My head is clear......Germany should not control the UK.......

Your head is clear? The delusions of the BREXIT team are going to produce blowback not paydirt whatever their fevered provincial imaginations are promising them.

[Caps]

“The much greater risk is remaining within the EU, they’ve got explicit plans to destroy British pensions,” Mr Truell said.

“All the final salary funds will go bankrupt and their companies will go bankrupt supporting them, that’s about 8,000 pension funds in the private sector.”

Taken from WhamBam's link #953

Why do you think they want everyone to have an EU tax number? Then the will know exactly how much everyone gets

Before you know it you will pay tax straight to Brussels then Parliament will have to beg for money....'Please Sir can I have some more.......MORE, YOU WANT MORE

I hope Junkers whole world falls apart when this is over...whichever way it goes

[Naam]

My head is very clear to what is happening to a great empire the UK is and is going down the drain.......

the empire is long gone Trans. what is left are memories kept alive by a few million immigrants and their descendants from former imperial parts as well as a few imperial non-metric measures.

[Johnyo]

Brexit won't change any of the above. What you need is Asian exit. How many of the immigrants that make your life so difficult come from Europe and how many cone from India,Pakistan etc?

Not overnight but a Brexit is a message to the government that we won't be ruled by the EU and mandate that the government reviews the current immigration shambles in favour of a points based Aussie-style system.

It's a starting point and we won't be ignored any longer.

Vote out.

In the Aussie-style points system you mention a high level of English is required for anyone wishing to live in their country.Fair enough.

If in Spain we had to apply the same tests for British Expats 95% would be on their way back to the UK.

I like the Aussie-style system.

Edited June 15, 2016 by Johnyo

[beautifulthailand99]

Latest betting odds - people putting their money where their mouths are - rock steady at 55% remain which is what it will be. Project fear (or reality check) in full flood now in UK - people will vote with their wallets and the status quo on the 23rd rather than leap into the unknown led by the motely crue of Farage,Johnson,Gove et al.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Edited June 15, 2016 by beautifulthailand99

[chiang mai]

There's a 39% chance of Brexit, pft:,

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

[JB300]

The process for withdrawing from the EU...

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/504216/The_process_for_withdrawing_from_the_EU_print_ready.pdf

Scaring reading, especially...

2.7 Regular EU decision-making would continue while we negotiated to leave. Our vote to leave, and the withdrawal negotiations themselves, would have an impact on our ability to affect the EU’s decision-making. But we would be bound by new EU legislation up to the moment we left.

[Caps]

The process for withdrawing from the EU...

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/504216/The_process_for_withdrawing_from_the_EU_print_ready.pdf

Scaring reading, especially...

2.7 Regular EU decision-making would continue while we negotiated to leave. Our vote to leave, and the withdrawal negotiations themselves, would have an impact on our ability to affect the EU’s decision-making. But we would be bound by new EU legislation up to the moment we left.

Then someone in the Government needs to grow a pair and tell the EU to shove it and if they are not deciding then they are not abiding. Because we will still be in the EU and therefore have as much right as the next country till we leave

[Caps]

There's a 39% chance of Brexit, pft:,

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

Why does everyone gloat on polls and odds, lets just wait and see. Because unless you have spoken to every single person of voting age in the UK and those undecideds have decided then its just a prediction. How can it be a true reflection?

[JB300]

There's a 39% chance of Brexit, pft:,

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

Why does everyone gloat on polls and odds, lets just wait and see. Because unless you have spoken to every single person of voting age in the UK and those undecideds have decided then its just a prediction. How can it be a true reflection?

That pole was 33% a couple of days ago & 24% a few days before that so might not be the positive for the (us) Remains that it appears to be.

[Caps]

I wonder how many of the remain (if they win) will be moaning when the UK has to pay more in to the EU and when they as individuals have to pay more tax to the EU because of this EU Tax number, because when it hits in the pocket it hurts.

Yes it was great being a member of the EEC and the EFTA. But what it has become is not what we originally joined. Everything has crept up on us and It Will get worse.

All I see all the time is people going on about how much the Pound will slip, how much houses will drop (not a bad thing really as its getting out of hand), blackmailing OAP's with their pensions etc etc

But not many talk about how much of a hold the EU has on the UK and how it is going to get worse. This is kind of swept under the carpet.

I posed these the other day and still got no answers, but if you mention money then holy hell breaks loose

Why do we need a European Tax number? What has it to do with them how much tax I, we pay. Its another route of a slow, stealth take over. I am not saying we have a great Tax office ourselves but its ours

Why do we need an EU army which in my eyes would be detrimental to HM Forces? I am all for military exercises and common goals but as for the EU Army! Quite a lot of the countries in the EU are in NATO, which quite frankly doesn't have a lot of back bone anyway (look at the Ukraine). Do you think the EU Army will have more, not a chance. It will be another bottomless money pit to pay into with nothing in return. Again its another way of a closer take over

Why do we need a EU Police force? We have interpol and yes the EU arrest warrant is ok, but I am sure countries could have this agreement without all the other stuff that goes with it and I believe there is a new arrangement to allow countries to take their ar53holes back quicker, I am pretty sure that if countries worked at it they could have this also. That way it would not be another bottomless money pit

We also as a country have to be careful who we as a 'Democratic Country' vote for, because according to No Mark Junker if he doesn't like the person a country democratically votes for he won't deal with them, eh! Who does he think he is? Isn't that more like a dictatorship? I hate being dictated to http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/24/eu-vows-use-new-powers-block-elected-far-right-populists-power/

It was in The Times but couldn't get the full page, not a member.

Then he had the gall to threaten us

If people think not taking a hit in the wallet for a bit is worth being told what to do by some T055er in Brussels then its sad and it will only get worse. I don't like I told you so's but...............

Edited June 16, 2016 by Caps

[Naam]

a slightly off topic but related question:

"how many resident fierce BRexit supporters live in homes with balconies?"

[Asiantravel]

The EU Wants to Impose a Tax for Sharing Links on the Internet

No wonder the people of Great Britain are itching to rid themselves of this miserable, idiotic union.

http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2016/06/14/the-eu-wants-to-impose-a-tax-for-sharing-links-on-the-internet/