New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[Naam]

The FTSE 100 is going higher and the pound strengthening; so it seems the financial markets believe they know the result...

Sterling +4% vs. $ and € in 5 trading days is more than just "strengthening"!

[Naam]

Sterling plus 5.5% vs. Thai Baht in 5 trading days!

[dick dasterdly]

It is odd. According to the polls it's too close to call, well within the margin of error. Yet sterling is already higher against USD than was predicted to *follow * a remain vote. Bookies have gone 1-4 now on remain. The trend on the leave vote has been consistently *up*. Options cost, ie. Volatility, is way *up*. It could be that bank AIs have analysed the data and see a high probability of remain, the phone v Internet difference perhaps? Or it could be that the Fix is in (see Austria). Or someone sold/leaked postal vote data? Would be worth 1bill£ no prob.

Wheee, a conspiracy theory, or maybe laying the basis for reasons why Brexit lost, exciting.

Why bother? You've already said that you think those who believed the outright lies from a supposed 'remainer' posts were stupid for believing them.

Time will tell us the result.

No need for more insults, guarded or not.

[Jip99]

The FTSE 100 is going higher and the pound strengthening; so it seems the financial markets believe they know the result...

Sterling +4% vs. $ and € in 5 trading days is more than just "strengthening"!

"Re-strengthening"

GBP/THB is back where it was 2 weeks ago.

[WhamBam]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

That, to me, has to be one of the most demeaning statements I have read for a long time with what it implies.

Does being an engineer make you better than anyone else? Having an education does not equate to having common sense or to mean that you know better than the rest.

It is comments like yours trying to imply you know better than the rest that would have driven me to vote to leave if I was a doubter.

What you fail to realise is that many on here do have an education but they do not have to shout about it.

Edited June 23, 2016 by WhamBam

[Grouse]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Ahhhh, yes.

Human rights. Now then, who introduced that? Which organisation supports that?

We want the scum out of OUR country but we are prevented from doing so.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, sums up the average brexiteer's attitude. How nice. I tell you this, IF Brexit prevails I shall leave and obtain citizenship of a different country, probably Germany or Denmark. I will not be the only one, could be quite a brain drain. I really can not tolerate awful people with awful attitudes. Embarrassing.

[Naam]

The average Brexiteer on this thread wouldn't know a an economic fact if it ran over them in a Chieftain tank.

Now that is funny.

Have you managed to work out the true cost of the UK's membership of the EU yet.

I have only asked about 6 times and each time no answer came the loud reply.

nobody is able to work out the true cost because it is too difficult to quantify the benefits. it is ridiculous and ignorant throwing around amounts of Pounds per day, month or annum to impress the totally ignorant.

ridiculous and ignorant is also insinuating Germany wants the British Empire to remain to share what the clowns in Brussels are wasting. what Germany needs is a strong partner, namely the UK, to check and reign in the afore-said clowns.

Naam

It might have been best to read the whole thread and not focus on a single comment. Then you might be aware of what I am talking about.

Just to give you a clue, there are those that believe that the cost of the UK's membership of the EU is nothing more than than the membership fee less rebate.

Where have I insulted in Germany ?

a misunderstanding Sarge! my comment was not directed at you but at those (plural) who repeatedly brought up the claim i referred to.

[Grouse]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Sick. Remove please

Not sure why you're bothered by this silly post (from a proven liar), when you have no compunction in calling those that disagree with you uneducated and stupid?

People who disagree with me are not necessarily uneducated or stupid. However, uneducated and/or stupid people will tend to vote Brexit ?

[churchill]

RANsquawk Retweeted

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 6m6 minutes ago

Ladbrokes: 55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE. #EUref

[Naam]

The ordinary bloke on the street knows that soon it will be an offence to fart in the street if Brussels remain controlling stuff...

if it was up to Brussels then smoking in a one-way street would be a criminal offence.

[SgtRock]

Now that is funny.

Have you managed to work out the true cost of the UK's membership of the EU yet.

I have only asked about 6 times and each time no answer came the loud reply.

nobody is able to work out the true cost because it is too difficult to quantify the benefits. it is ridiculous and ignorant throwing around amounts of Pounds per day, month or annum to impress the totally ignorant.

ridiculous and ignorant is also insinuating Germany wants the British Empire to remain to share what the clowns in Brussels are wasting. what Germany needs is a strong partner, namely the UK, to check and reign in the afore-said clowns.

Naam

It might have been best to read the whole thread and not focus on a single comment. Then you might be aware of what I am talking about.

Just to give you a clue, there are those that believe that the cost of the UK's membership of the EU is nothing more than than the membership fee less rebate.

Where have I insulted in Germany ?

a misunderstanding Sarge! my comment was not directed at you but at those (plural) who repeatedly brought up the claim i referred to.

I forgive you Naam.

I have no problem with ANY people from Europe, apart from some blockheads that infest this thread.

My problem is reserved solely for the EU and its various institutions.

[Jip99]

The FTSE 100 is going higher and the pound strengthening; so it seems the financial markets believe they know the result...

Paddypower now 9/1 ON.

Is there some block voting going on here ???

[dick dasterdly]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

That, to me, has to be one of the most demeaning statements I have read for a long time with what it implies.

Does being an engineer make you better than anyone else? Having an education does not equate to having common sense or to mean that you know better than the rest.

It is comments like yours trying to imply you know better than the rest that would have driven me to vote to leave if I was a doubter.

What you fail to realise is that many on here do have an education but they do not have to shout about it.

Which is why I'm wondering about grouse's motives. It makes no sense to be SO rude against those with a different opinion.

As you say, it is only likely to influence them the other way.

[allanos]

The FTSE 100 is going higher and the pound strengthening; so it seems the financial markets believe they know the result...

Paddypower now 9/1 ON.

Is there some block voting going on here ???

Even more ODD/STRANGE if Ladbrokes are claiming that today 55% of punters are betting on LEAVE,

yet Paddy Power has strengthened the odds for REMAIN at 9/1 on!

[Bunnychow]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Sick. Remove please

Not sure why you're bothered by this silly post (from a proven liar), when you have no compunction in calling those that disagree with you uneducated and stupid?

People who disagree with me are not necessarily uneducated or stupid. However, uneducated and/or stupid people will tend to vote Brexit ?

Then you are calling half the UK populous stupid cos they don't agree with a guy (you) that has investments that may suffer...?

Grouse displays the typical traits of a "remainer" an arrogant scare monger,sky is falling type

the vote doesnt matter anyway..the result was decided a while back,the UK will end up staying in the EU...

[dick dasterdly]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Sick. Remove please

Not sure why you're bothered by this silly post (from a proven liar), when you have no compunction in calling those that disagree with you uneducated and stupid?

People who disagree with me are not necessarily uneducated or stupid. However, uneducated and/or stupid people will tend to vote Brexit ?

Ignoring the bait, why are you so bothered about Histvia's post, when you have no compunction calling those that disagree with you uneducated and stupid?

[chiang mai]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

That, to me, has to be one of the most demeaning statements I have read for a long time with what it implies.

Does being an engineer make you better than anyone else? Having an education does not equate to having common sense or to mean that you know better than the rest.

It is comments like yours trying to imply you know better than the rest that would have driven me to vote to leave if I was a doubter.

What you fail to realise is that many on here do have an education but they do not have to shout about it.

Voter demographics have never been more unambiguous, it's not demeaning it's fact.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum-0

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/eu-referendum-which-type-of-person-wants-to-leave-and-who-will-b/

Edited June 23, 2016 by chiang mai

[happy Joe]

Polls are definitely uncertain and unconvincing but now there are 2 item that in my opinion tip the balance to stay:

1- Odds stay is now at 80% for bookmakers

2- GBP flies off since a few minutes

Game over.

[Bunnychow]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Ahhhh, yes.

Human rights. Now then, who introduced that? Which organisation supports that?

We want the scum out of OUR country but we are prevented from doing so.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, sums up the average brexiteer's attitude. How nice. I tell you this, IF Brexit prevails I shall leave and obtain citizenship of a different country, probably Germany or Denmark. I will not be the only one, could be quite a brain drain. I really can not tolerate awful people with awful attitudes. Embarrassing.

If the UK remains in the EU can i request you give up your UK citizenship anyway and go to Denmark or Germany anyway and afford youself of those countries welfare systems instead of the UKs...brain drain...LOL

[dick dasterdly]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Ahhhh, yes.

Human rights. Now then, who introduced that? Which organisation supports that?

We want the scum out of OUR country but we are prevented from doing so.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, sums up the average brexiteer's attitude. How nice. I tell you this, IF Brexit prevails I shall leave and obtain citizenship of a different country, probably Germany or Denmark. I will not be the only one, could be quite a brain drain. I really can not tolerate awful people with awful attitudes. Embarrassing.

Don't worry, everyone is desperate for you to remain in the UK - even though you obviously work elsewhere.

This is not a 'fun' subject to most of us.

[billd766]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Ahhhh, yes.

Human rights. Now then, who introduced that? Which organisation supports that?

We want the scum out of OUR country but we are prevented from doing so.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, sums up the average brexiteer's attitude. How nice. I tell you this, IF Brexit prevails I shall leave and obtain citizenship of a different country, probably Germany or Denmark. I will not be the only one, could be quite a brain drain. I really can not tolerate awful people with awful attitudes. Embarrassing.

I doubt that it will be a brain drain.

The ones with the brains are voting for Brexit.

Yes I was an engineers for some 50 years in both air and ground communications engineering. I did 25 years service in the RAF of which I am very proud, a further 5 years working with the government in communications and the rest of the time in the mobile phone industry. Many of the engineers that I know are also voting for a Brexit.

As for tolerating awful people with awful attitudes, I am so glad that we have never met either in business or social circles.

I truly hope that you are successful in obtaining citizenship of another country.

[dabhand]

The FTSE 100 is going higher and the pound strengthening; so it seems the financial markets believe they know the result...

Paddypower now 9/1 ON.

Is there some block voting going on here ???

Now at 10/1 On as is Betfair.

Seems like a done deal despite the latest polls showing a close outcome. The live results will make interesting viewing.

Pollsters with egg on face again?

[dick dasterdly]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Ahhhh, yes.

Human rights. Now then, who introduced that? Which organisation supports that?

We want the scum out of OUR country but we are prevented from doing so.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, sums up the average brexiteer's attitude. How nice. I tell you this, IF Brexit prevails I shall leave and obtain citizenship of a different country, probably Germany or Denmark. I will not be the only one, could be quite a brain drain. I really can not tolerate awful people with awful attitudes. Embarrassing.

I doubt that it will be a brain drain.

The ones with the brains are voting for Brexit.

Yes I was an engineers for some 50 years in both air and ground communications engineering. I did 25 years service in the RAF of which I am very proud, a further 5 years working with the government in communications and the rest of the time in the mobile phone industry. Many of the engineers that I know are also voting for a Brexit.

As for tolerating awful people with awful attitudes, I am so glad that we have never met either in business or social circles.

I truly hope that you are successful in obtaining citizenship of another country.

Why on earth would you feel the need to 'prove yourself' to him???

Edit - Insults obviously work .

Edited June 23, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[allanos]

The "Economist" article posted by Chiang Mai makes very interesting reading, and thanks to him for posting it. And perhaps they are

correct in how they have analysed the demographic for this particular contest.

At the same time, it doesn't bring very much succour to the "Remainians", does it? The magazine appears to have been

very thorough in its research, and the demographic of the "Leave" camp appears to be the weightier one.

It doesn't appear as though the "Economist" factored in the weather. This always plays a big role during General Elections,

when Labour voters are more dissuaded to venture outside that Tory voters. Weather conditions may well be a consideration today.

"Motivation" will be the decider, in my opinion, not the "undecided" and the "don't knows". If these two vacillating demographics haven't

made up their minds by now, why on earth do we believe they will get off their butts and go and vote?

Lastly, though, all of the research, analysis, wagering and polling does not mean that the predictions of either side will be correct.

The partying or the commiserating will only take place tomorrow, after the results are known.

[chiang mai]

Oh I don't know:

"Betting markets have swung sharply towards “remain”, and now imply around a 75% chance that Britain stays in. If the answer to the country’s biggest political question for a generation is indeed “Remain”, it will be a triumph of youthful optimism over the tyranny of the old". http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum-0

[allanos]

Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

[churchill]

He's voted. Have you? Polls open until 10.00.

[Orac]

Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

[allanos]

He's voted. Have you? Polls open until 10.00.

Do sensible, grounded UK citizens, of whatever demographic, still have any belief in this egotistical politician?

If there were any reason to vote "out" of the EU, it would be because he has voted to "remain"!

[Orac]

He's voted. Have you? Polls open until 10.00.

Do sensible, grounded UK citizens, of whatever demographic, still have any belief in this egotistical politician?

If there were any reason to vote "out" of the EU, it would be because he has voted to "remain"!

I have a hunch that was why he posted it!