EU referendum: BBC forecasts UK votes to leave

[mommysboy]

I just find it hard to believe that a country outside the union would be the financial center for the union.... I would love it if it were possible, it would give Toronto a chance to challenge New York.... but I just think this it is just a pipe-dream..... London has it as part of a legacy of the Empire when trading for the entire Empire went through London -- but England outside of the EU is a rather small market in relation.

It's really about access to EU through the City of London. Even if 'passporting' was not granted, companies can open a European proxy Office. But the point is currently most of the world wants to deal through London. Some places just have kudos. Don't underestimate that cultural and historic legacy. Maybe it will be eroded in time. Everything changes. Certainly Europen trade would be impacted, but it is not a catastrophe for London.

But I must admit, my knowledge only goes so deep. I hope someone else can add more. As I say my piece is just a distillation, an attempt to understand. I got most of it from BBC website. Guardian, Telegraph. BBC Radio 4 News and business programmes., Radio 5live Wake Up To Money. World Service Global News and Business Matters.

Edit: I missed a point. It wouldn't de facto be the Financial centre of Europe. It's just that it is a big player in the world. Not sure, I think it might be the biggest in some aspects.

[mommysboy]

S and P downgrades.

It highlights the constitutional issue of a divided vote. Basically, what a lot of us are saying, it was a terrible permutation.

[NeverSure]

Oh, the irony of leftists protesting IN FAVOR of the status quo, IN FAVOR of bankers and big business and against a common guy's democratic process. I would have posted earlier but I can't get up off the floor where I'm rolling and laughing. Leftists want the banksters and CEO's in the financial capital to succeed as long as they get their benefits.

[MJP]

Oh, the irony of leftists protesting IN FAVOR of the status quo, IN FAVOR of bankers and big business and against a common guy's democratic process. I would have posted earlier but I can't get up off the floor where I'm rolling and laughing. Leftists want the banksters and CEO's in the financial capital to succeed as long as they get their benefits.

Nervous times, but screw it! Let's see it through.

Have you seen this? . . .

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

[NeverSure]

Oh, the irony of leftists protesting IN FAVOR of the status quo, IN FAVOR of bankers and big business and against a common guy's democratic process. I would have posted earlier but I can't get up off the floor where I'm rolling and laughing. Leftists want the banksters and CEO's in the financial capital to succeed as long as they get their benefits.

Nervous times, but screw it! Let's see it through.

Have you seen this? . . .

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Wow but no surprise. That's been the plan all along. One big superstate.

"Under the radical proposals EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels."

The sole reason the the USA has been able to get along across a large population and a large land mass is that it is a republic of 50 sovereign states. Not even the US could survive with just one central government ruling everyone. The US already had one huge and deadly civil war between the North and the South. The US government has very limited powers with most powers vested in the states.

Brits are lucky to not get caught up in this.

[MJP]

Oh, the irony of leftists protesting IN FAVOR of the status quo, IN FAVOR of bankers and big business and against a common guy's democratic process. I would have posted earlier but I can't get up off the floor where I'm rolling and laughing. Leftists want the banksters and CEO's in the financial capital to succeed as long as they get their benefits.

Nervous times, but screw it! Let's see it through.

Have you seen this? . . .

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Wow but no surprise. That's been the plan all along. One big superstate.

"Under the radical proposals EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels."

The sole reason the the USA has been able to get along across a large population and a large land mass is that it is a republic of 50 sovereign states. Not even the US could survive with just one central government ruling everyone. The US already had one huge and deadly civil war between the North and the South. The US government has very limited powers with most powers vested in the states.

Brits are lucky to not get caught up in this.

It was close, although the fat lady (Article 50) has yet to sing.

[bkkcanuck8]

I just keep on remembering back when Montreal was the Financial Capital of Canada.... up until the 70s and the issue of separation and instability crept in.... Now the Montreal Exchange is just an adjunct to the main one - an Options and Futures market.

[mommysboy]

I just keep on remembering back when Montreal was the Financial Capital of Canada.... up until the 70s and the issue of separation and instability crept in.... Now the Montreal Exchange is just an adjunct to the main one - an Options and Futures market.

I see your point but at the moment a lot of nothing has happened. They can huff and puff all they like. Markets hate uncertainty and slowness. In all honesty it's good that we won't be held to ransom.

That refendum vote needs to be binned pretty quickly though. It can be done easily by calling a snap election. That way it gets binned.

[MJP]

I just keep on remembering back when Montreal was the Financial Capital of Canada.... up until the 70s and the issue of separation and instability crept in.... Now the Montreal Exchange is just an adjunct to the main one - an Options and Futures market.

I see your point but at the moment a lot of nothing has happened. They can huff and puff all they like. Markets hate uncertainty and slowness. In all honesty it's good that we won't be held to ransom.

That refendum vote needs to be binned pretty quickly though. It can be done easily by calling a snap election. That way it gets binned.

Don't do that. It's just getting interesting. Where's your sense of swashbuckling adventure?

The status quo sucked anyway.

[mommysboy]

Yes I guess. if a lot of idiot investors want to chuck money down the drain because they think the island will sink, upo to them.

Like wise rather amusing to see EU idiots pitched in with Brexit idiots.

[bkkcanuck8]

Yes I guess. if a lot of idiot investors want to chuck money down the drain because they think the island will sink, upo to them.

Like wise rather amusing to see EU idiots pitched in with Brexit idiots.

You mean the EU idiots are doing the same thing as the Brexit idiots....

Brexit idiots seem to fail to understand what "leave" means.... and they are just standing around in the doorway picking their noses....

[MJP]

Yes I guess. if a lot of idiot investors want to chuck money down the drain because they think the island will sink, upo to them.

Like wise rather amusing to see EU idiots pitched in with Brexit idiots.

Speculators love an excuse to speculate. Especially since the advent of QE, it has nothing to do with actual fundamentals. You're just watching a roulette wheel going round.

This could, most likely will, turn out just fine.

[mommysboy]

Oh, the irony of leftists protesting IN FAVOR of the status quo, IN FAVOR of bankers and big business and against a common guy's democratic process. I would have posted earlier but I can't get up off the floor where I'm rolling and laughing. Leftists want the banksters and CEO's in the financial capital to succeed as long as they get their benefits.

Nervous times, but screw it! Let's see it through.

Have you seen this? . . .

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Christ, is it a credible story?

Would explain a lot.

[bkkcanuck8]

Oh, the irony of leftists protesting IN FAVOR of the status quo, IN FAVOR of bankers and big business and against a common guy's democratic process. I would have posted earlier but I can't get up off the floor where I'm rolling and laughing. Leftists want the banksters and CEO's in the financial capital to succeed as long as they get their benefits.

Nervous times, but screw it! Let's see it through.

Have you seen this? . . .

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Christ, is it a credible story?

Would explain a lot.

I have not found it in any publication I am comfortable with - just the ones that really just look like sensationalist rags (not overly familiar with all the different English publications).

[MJP]

Oh, the irony of leftists protesting IN FAVOR of the status quo, IN FAVOR of bankers and big business and against a common guy's democratic process. I would have posted earlier but I can't get up off the floor where I'm rolling and laughing. Leftists want the banksters and CEO's in the financial capital to succeed as long as they get their benefits.

Nervous times, but screw it! Let's see it through.

Have you seen this? . . .

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Christ, is it a credible story?

Would explain a lot.

I have not found it in any publication I am comfortable with - just the ones that really just look like sensationalist rags (not overly familiar with all the different English publications).

Fellas, it's been their plan all along.

What do you think EU Regional Assembly's are for?

Eight English regions, Wales, NI and Scotland . . . all reporting directly to Brussels.

Do a bit of research on it.

[mommysboy]

Yes I guess. if a lot of idiot investors want to chuck money down the drain because they think the island will sink, upo to them.

Like wise rather amusing to see EU idiots pitched in with Brexit idiots.

You mean the EU idiots are doing the same thing as the Brexit idiots....

Brexit idiots seem to fail to understand what "leave" means.... and they are just standing around in the doorway picking their noses....

It's only 4 days from the vote. What's the big problem here? if rest of world wants to spit the dummy, up to them. Britain's already offered informal talks but they have been rejected.

[MJP]

Yes I guess. if a lot of idiot investors want to chuck money down the drain because they think the island will sink, upo to them.

Like wise rather amusing to see EU idiots pitched in with Brexit idiots.

You mean the EU idiots are doing the same thing as the Brexit idiots....

Brexit idiots seem to fail to understand what "leave" means.... and they are just standing around in the doorway picking their noses....

It's only 4 days from the vote. What's the big problem here? if rest of world wants to spit the dummy, up to them. Britain's already offered informal talks but they have been rejected.

That's the spirit! We'll get through this.

[mommysboy]

All this rubbish from the foreigners is even making me feel bullish.

Won't be pushed around. I tell you that.

[MJP]

All this rubbish from the foreigners is even making me feel bullish.

Won't be pushed around. I tell you that.

It's not foreigners, it's dictators that's the problem.

I'll be cast as a conspiracy theorist but . . . so what?

[tony5150]

why not vote out the biggest welfare cases in history? Tell the "royal family" to cop a stroll first. Just their art collection alone would put food in everyones bellies for years.

[MJP]

why not vote out the biggest welfare case in history? Ask the Windsor's to cop a stroll first. Just their art collection alone would put food in everyones bellies for years.

Royal family costs each Blighty person £0.62 a year.

Yes, sixty two pence a year.

I promise to pay your share for the next ten years, less than the price of 10 fags (that's cigarettes Merkins, stop sniggering in the back).

[bkkcanuck8]

Nervous times, but screw it! Let's see it through.

Have you seen this? . . .

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Christ, is it a credible story?

Would explain a lot.

I have not found it in any publication I am comfortable with - just the ones that really just look like sensationalist rags (not overly familiar with all the different English publications).

Fellas, it's been their plan all along.

What do you think EU Regional Assembly's are for?

Eight English regions, Wales, NI and Scotland . . . all reporting directly to Brussels.

Do a bit of research on it.

You are right that a federalist state was in the plans from the get go... it is why de Gaulle kept vetoing England entering, because they did not have the same ideals and were only in there to cause problems.... which apparently -- he was absolutely correct on. I have no problem of a super-state like the US - just the sensationalism of the story about they are coming to lock you in chains type... I doubt the next step is they are going to force all the current states to become a superstate, but not every state only those that are ready for that step (i.e. Greece, Spain, Italy are not going to be part of anything like that yet - nor many Eastern European countries).

[MJP]

^^Bruv . . . why take a chance?

[bkkcanuck8]

why not vote out the biggest welfare case in history? Ask the Windsor's to cop a stroll first. Just their art collection alone would put food in everyones bellies for years.

Royal family costs each Blighty person £0.62 a year.

Yes, sixty two pence a year.

I promise to pay your share for the next ten years, less than the price of 10 fags (that's cigarettes Merkins, stop sniggering in the back).

The Royal Family is worth it in tourist revenue alone...

[bkkcanuck8]

^^Bruv . . . why take a chance?

Why indeed... which is why they are now begging you to leave....

Get on with your independent future and let them get on with theirs...

[tony5150]

why not vote out the biggest welfare case in history? Ask the Windsor's to cop a stroll first. Just their art collection alone would put food in everyones bellies for years.

Royal family costs each Blighty person £0.62 a year.

Yes, sixty two pence a year.

I promise to pay your share for the next ten years, less than the price of 10 fags (that's cigarettes Merkins, stop sniggering in the back).

It's not about the cost to keep them. It's about what they own. Not to mention the Windsors profits from war.

[MJP]

^^Bruv . . . why take a chance?

Why indeed... which is why they are now begging you to leave....

That's fine by me.

[MJP]

why not vote out the biggest welfare case in history? Ask the Windsor's to cop a stroll first. Just their art collection alone would put food in everyones bellies for years.

Royal family costs each Blighty person £0.62 a year.

Yes, sixty two pence a year.

I promise to pay your share for the next ten years, less than the price of 10 fags (that's cigarettes Merkins, stop sniggering in the back).

It's not about the cost to keep them. It's about what they own. Not to mention the Windsors profits from war.

Partly agree. The National Trust is worse.

[soalbundy]

Yes I guess. if a lot of idiot investors want to chuck money down the drain because they think the island will sink, upo to them.

Like wise rather amusing to see EU idiots pitched in with Brexit idiots.

You mean the EU idiots are doing the same thing as the Brexit idiots....

Brexit idiots seem to fail to understand what "leave" means.... and they are just standing around in the doorway picking their noses....

It's only 4 days from the vote. What's the big problem here? if rest of world wants to spit the dummy, up to them. Britain's already offered informal talks but they have been rejected.

That's the spirit! We'll get through this.

whatever,but it is interesting,like watching a car crash in slow motion

[cumgranosalum]

I've been looking at the various options that might be available in trade deals with EU. I thought I'd better do this, as nobody can really advise. Most of all the Brexiters themselves!!!

What strikes me immediately is that UK and EU are interdependent. This is important when considering the issue of tariffs, which are taxes levied on exports by the receiving country. The danger of imposing tariffs is that they get reciprocated. Thus if, say, the EU imposed a 30% tariff on UK car exports to the EU, then UK would likely impose a similar rate, or higher, on EU export of cars to the UK. Trade would be damaged all round. This would be particularly problematic for the German car industry which exports as much as 10% of its production to UK, and has a business interest in 50% of the very big UK car industry. This example might stand good for any number of sectors.

Contrary to popular belief UK most certainly does not have a whip hand in negotiations with the EU: simply because Britain needs an agreement more than the EU does. It's just a matter of size you see. Thus while EU benefits by being a net gainer in EU vs UK trade by a whopping 40 billion, this still represents a small percentage in EU terms, whereas 46% of UK exports go to the EU.

One other observation is that multi nationals would also have a big say. And they carry weight. To go back to the car example. BMW would be livid with both the UK and German Government if they hindered trade. It would be the same other big companies, hundreds of medium size companies, and tens of thousands of small businesses.

The WTO model. Quite simply no rules or agreement as such, but a right to trade. Things just kind of do or don't develop. These might include tariffs, but read as above as to why they might not be imposed, or may be low. It's a simple model and most importantly does not require negotiation. And means UK is free to negotiate with countries outside the EU free from EU regulations. It would also make a withdrawal from the EU much simpler and without conditions.

The 'Swiss' Model. A series of bilateral agreements, which may not be offered anymore as they took years to negotiate and were a nightmare; rather has the hallmarks of its parents then I would say.

The Norway Model. Single market model. This gives full access to the single market. Britain would join the European Free Trade Association. UK would need to make high contributions as now. Additionally it would have to agree to the free movement of labour. And adhere to EU specifications, eg, a size 1 egg must be such and such a height and weight. In return there is free trade for both parties. Crucially, it is granted by EU and can not be demanded. But there are significant advantages for EU too; an offer they would be mad to refuse in all honesty.

One of the UK's big cards is the city of London. Contrary to popular belief (including mine until very recently) it would not be decimated, in fact EU needs it. It is more than just access, UK has the best hard and soft infrastructure, expertise, an established customer base (the world basically) and every country needs to be there. Once again then there is a degree of interdependence only this time roles are reversed. EU could deny the UK so called 'financial passporting', but this is easily circumnavigated, and would undoubtedly result in harsh retribution.

Overall, it is 'I scratch your back if you scratch mine'. And the demands of commerce would likely ensure a mutually satisfactory solution in my opinion.

Bit late to research - you are also completely wrong on a few points, most notably London as a centre of finance - there is a thing called an "EU passport" for finance /stock brokers etc, this is issued by the EU and many companies are in London take advantage of this to trade within Europe.

It is estimated that as many as 3/4 million jobs would move - probably to Frankfurt if they don't renegotiate that deal

"Banks based in London rely on an “EU passport” to operate freely across Europe’s financial markets while having most of their staff and operations in the UK capital. But François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the governing council of the European Central Bank, warned that the City could no longer expect to enjoy a similar arrangement in the future." - guardian.