EU referendum: BBC forecasts UK votes to leave

[Christie Paul]

The UK is in the spotlight and it will suffer in the markets, along with significant political turmoil.

But the pendulum of attention will soon shift to the EU - and it's horrifying economic fundamentals and its dysfunctional soviet style political elitism. They have drawn a busted flush.

Scotland has already been roundly rejected by Brussels, as they've got nothing to offer. They are a dependent state.

Luxembourg sees the writing on the wall and makes independent announcements that they want to fully trade with the UK. The German equivalent of the UK's CBI have already signalled loud and clear, that they want to maintain the very same trade deals as before, as they know where their bread is buttered. The UK is a net importer of European goods.

The Netherlands will likely leave the EU in short order, along with the Scandinavian countries.

The French need to win a war. To accomplish this it will need to be a civil one.

Spain will go down in a flaming heap as will Portugal.

Italy will revolt, when their banking system crashes, which could be at any moment.

But Europe will unite when the rapes and murders from the present Islamic invasion reaches a certain critical point, maybe double what it is now, which will trigger a 2nd Amendment type of right to the people and they will drive them out by sheer force.

The Swiss will roll their eyes and mutter something about how good it is to be Swiss.

[Norvabc]

EU was conceived to prevent the far-right from taking over - now "England" has welcomed them with open arms - reminiscent of 1930s Germany - and we know where that went.

I would say just the opposite Was it not Martim Bormann that was the visionary of the EU. Unelected member making rules setting the young against the old. Sounds a little like a brown shirt operation. They had a go in in WW1 then in WW11 now they try another tactic the EU. Uniforms have changed but the intension has not. They had a democratic vote, Leave won. Get over it. The BBC with its Pedo racist members and propaganda is a shame on the UK. The World speaks English so should have no problem negotiating British Deals. In 1973 Britain produced more Airplanes than anyone and the rest, heavy industry has been systematically destroyed in the UK by none other that those that we were at war with in 1939.

The last time i hear the youth being set against the old was by the BROWN SHIRTS.

[Bunnychow]

two and a half million muppets now want to reverse their vote, a protest vote gone wrong, many didn't think (i could leave that as a statement but i will continue) that we would really exit they were just protesting against the elite. I just hope parliament now takes the referendum merely as a non binding recommendation and doesn't invoke article 50 otherwise we will not only lose the EU we will lose Scotland as well, what a cock up !!! well done Dave.

You're implying that it is those that voted brexit who are now asking for another referendum?

Surely its FAR more likely to be those that lost the vote, rather than those who won?!

you could be right of course but many now who voted leave are having regrets, i think if a new referendum was held it would be remain that would win. A 50-50 decision in my opinion is not binding and that is basically what it was. Parliament has the last decision and they should have the balls not to invoke article 50. If two thirds had said out i would call that binding as sad as i would be about it. We could now lose Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland as well as the EU. Already warnings are being made to the Tory party not to reverse the workers rights that were given to them by the EU and Ukip has admitted that immigration by and large wont be stopped as imagined, the 'outs' have been sold a pigs ear and they are beginning to realize it. Rubber lips Boris for PM another horror scenario. That's what happens when beer sex and football are ones main interest in life.

If 52-48 is not a winning decision, why did the country accept 36.9% win for the conservatives at the last election?

The remain voters were so arrogant they would win they did not think to demand a specific percentage of votes to win. Too late after, both sides knew the rules. The vote should stand.

Funny how people bleat on about democracy until they loose isnt it and then they will not accept a democratic vote/result

[ilostmypassword]

If 52-48 is not a winning decision, why did the country accept 36.9% win for the conservatives at the last election?

The remain voters were so arrogant they would win they did not think to demand a specific percentage of votes to win. Too late after, both sides knew the rules. The vote should stand.

Funny how people bleat on about democracy until they loose isnt it and then they will not accept a democratic vote/result

You mean like Nigel Farage?

Nigel Farage warns today he would fight for a second referendum on Britain in Europe if the remain campaign won by a narrow margin next month.

The Ukip leader said a small defeat for his leave camp would be “unfinished business” and predicted pressure would grow for a re-run of the 23 June ballot.

Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017

[Norvabc]

The Pound has already started tumbling like crazy

Yes cos the Rothchilds are pulling money to punish and to show the UK Sheep that they should not have done that.

NWO has had a very hard hit they just didn't expect that after the PSYOP and Jo Cox fiasco. they are throwing the bottle out of the pram and stomping feet.

Any nation Media or organisation that promotes and supports hatred of the older generation by the youth is no different from the Nazis

[ilostmypassword]

The Pound has already started tumbling like crazy

Yes cos the Rothchilds are pulling money to punish and to show the UK Sheep that they should not have done that.

NWO has had a very hard hit they just didn't expect that after the PSYOP and Jo Cox fiasco. they are throwing the bottle out of the pram and stomping feet.

Any nation Media or organisation that promotes and supports hatred of the older generation by the youth is no different from the Nazis

That's an interesting point. In the USA right wingers consistently scold the elderly for the high levels of their entitlements and claim that their benefits come at the expense of the young. I don't believe that those conservatives are no different from the Nazis but apparently you do.

[Norvabc]

My wife asked if she can be called Racist if she votes out mainly due to the UK, from what she sees, is being over run and is tired of the Slavakian chap who comes and pisses and takes dump in the side passage. I did tell her that it’s our fault because we didn’t provide him with a squat toilet, it’s ok cos we will get a gate soon.

As to if she can be a racist or not, I have to honest. Winter time she has no luck, she is too white, but come summer she can say what she likes cos she gets darker and is obviously an Asian.

Africa for Africans

Asia for asians

China for Chinese

India for indians

England for Everyone

[ilostmypassword]

My wife asked if she can be called Racist if she votes out mainly due to the UK, from what she sees, is being over run and is tired of the Slavakian chap who comes and pisses and takes dump in the side passage. I did tell her that it’s our fault because we didn’t provide him with a squat toilet, it’s ok cos we will get a gate soon.

As to if she can be a racist or not, I have to honest. Winter time she has no luck, she is too white, but come summer she can say what she likes cos she gets darker and is obviously an Asian.

Africa for Africans

Asia for asians

China for Chinese

India for indians

England for Everyone

Maybe your wife should listen to what the backers of Brexit are now saying. Namely, that Slovakians and other Eastern Europeans will still be as welcome in the UK to work as ever. Like lots of other Britons, your wife has been deceived by the promoters of Brexit.

[Norvabc]

My wife asked if she can be called Racist if she votes out mainly due to the UK, from what she sees, is being over run and is tired of the Slavakian chap who comes and pisses and takes dump in the side passage. I did tell her that it’s our fault because we didn’t provide him with a squat toilet, it’s ok cos we will get a gate soon.

As to if she can be a racist or not, I have to honest. Winter time she has no luck, she is too white, but come summer she can say what she likes cos she gets darker and is obviously an Asian.

Africa for Africans

Asia for asians

China for Chinese

India for indians

England for Everyone

Maybe your wife should listen to what the backers of Brexit are now saying. Namely, that Slovakians and other Eastern Europeans will still be as welcome in the UK to work as ever. Like lots of other Britons, your wife has been deceived by the promoters of Brexit.

The deception is obvious by the tantrums of the remain campaign and the attitude after the vote. The point was can she be called racist. As to workers no problem come and work but having streets full as we do of EU member on the dole in South Yorkshire is frightening. We have now at least one person begging for money or food a day now.

[Christie Paul]

To Brexit or to Remain are not policy issues, although some very unpopular policies have been the lightening rod, which has led to but obscured the real and only issue.

Who will govern the people of the UK?

An unelected politburo or democratically elected representatives?

Neither are perfect. But invariably, centrally planned economies, managed by unelected bureaucrats, impoverish their people, regardless of how well intentioned they are or have said they are going to be.

[MJP]

To Brexit or to Remain are not policy issues, although some very unpopular policies have been the lightening rod, which has led to but obscured the real and only issue.

Who will govern the people of the UK?

An unelected politburo or democratically elected representatives?

Neither are perfect. But invariably, centrally planned economies, managed by unelected bureaucrats, impoverish their people, regardless of how well intentioned they are or have said they are going to be.

Thank you. Precisely.

[Bunnychow]

To Brexit or to Remain are not policy issues, although some very unpopular policies have been the lightening rod, which has led to but obscured the real and only issue.

Who will govern the people of the UK?

An unelected politburo or democratically elected representatives?

Neither are perfect. But invariably, centrally planned economies, managed by unelected bureaucrats, impoverish their people, regardless of how well intentioned they are or have said they are going to be.

And this is the key, the British people have been given their democratic right to cock things for themselves and not allow the faceless pigs in trough in Brussels to cock it up for them

The United States of Europe experiment is a failure and it only benefits those with their snouts in the EU trough

[billd766]

George Osborne looks utterly shattered . . .

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36637732

He's a good man.

That always assumes that he will STILL be the chancellor in 3 months time.

I think my hearing has improved because I am sure that I can hear the grindstones working on the long knives, the tumbrils are being brought out of long term storage and ladies with knitting needles are booking front row seats for the circuses.

I also believe that they are borrowing some guillotines from Marine Le Pen in France for use by both major parties in the short term.

[Guest]

The EU will treat Brexit Britain like Greece

In Brussels, they have been ready to say goodbye for a long time. Britain had been half-way out the door for forty years

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/the-eu-will-treat-britain-like-greece/

[BlindMagician]

Some stats:

Age breakdown, elderly voted leave, young voted remain, ie ... those that tend to have old fashioned views.

Out of 30 regions that voted leave, 28 of those had the fewest graduates , ie...the less well educated.

A vote is a vote, young or old, with or without a degree, but these stats tell you something don't they.

I didn't bother to vote. Oh brother?, that says it all really.

I have a degree.

If they go for a rerun, I will vote, and I will vote to leave.

[cumgranosalum]

ahh for the good old virtues of the Victorian era where little children who stole bread out of hunger could be imprisoned or die of mistreatment in the work house.

1970 was the Victorian era ?

So glad I did not go to a school anywhere near you.

Mourning the good old days of 'British virtues' is pointless,the good old days were only good for the rich for the working person it was a miserable life and even in the 70's it wasn't great.

I am not mourning anything.

I had a great life in the 70's. It was even better in the 80's when I discovered the big wide world that existed outside the UK / EU.

Really opened my eyes and made my realise what a dung heap the UK really was and that wherever I ended up the world it would not be the UK / EU.

"I had a great life in the 70's. It was even better in the 80's when I discovered the big wide" - I...I ...I.... It may come as a shock to you but you are NOT the centre of the universe and your "experience" is no more than anecdotal - and the plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.

[cumgranosalum]

I increasingly get the impression that Brexiteers are the kind of people who belief if something isn't working, rather than repair it you kick it or hit it with a hammer.

I think it's becoming quite clear by now, that whatever it was that the Brexiteers wanted - and let's face it, it was pretty vague at best....they aren't gonna get it........even leaving the EU is a moot point, as for sovereignty and "immigration" it loos like we'll have to surrender more - great job Brexiteers

[MJP]

I increasingly get the impression that Brexiteers are the kind of people who belief if something isn't working, rather than repair it you kick it or hit it with a hammer.

I think it's becoming quite clear by now, that whatever it was that the Brexiteers wanted - and let's face it, it was pretty vague at best....they aren't gonna get it........even leaving the EU is a moot point, as for sovereignty and "immigration" it loos like we'll have to surrender more - great job Brexiteers

I know this is the Express, but in your opinion is this likely to be true?

European SUPERSTATE to be unveiled: EU nations 'to be morphed into one' post-Brexit

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

[cumgranosalum]

I increasingly get the impression that Brexiteers are the kind of people who belief if something isn't working, rather than repair it you kick it or hit it with a hammer.

I think it's becoming quite clear by now, that whatever it was that the Brexiteers wanted - and let's face it, it was pretty vague at best....they aren't gonna get it........even leaving the EU is a moot point, as for sovereignty and "immigration" it loos like we'll have to surrender more - great job Brexiteers

I know this is the Express, but in your opinion is this likely to be true?

European SUPERSTATE to be unveiled: EU nations 'to be morphed into one' post-Brexit

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

I want to see out bent bananas come back first - or at least get that bus off the moon that Hitler is living in.....

[Gweiloman]

I increasingly get the impression that Brexiteers are the kind of people who belief if something isn't working, rather than repair it you kick it or hit it with a hammer.

I think it's becoming quite clear by now, that whatever it was that the Brexiteers wanted - and let's face it, it was pretty vague at best....they aren't gonna get it........even leaving the EU is a moot point, as for sovereignty and "immigration" it loos like we'll have to surrender more - great job Brexiteers

I know this is the Express, but in your opinion is this likely to be true?

European SUPERSTATE to be unveiled: EU nations 'to be morphed into one' post-Brexit

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

I believe this is the long term goal of the EU but I cannot believe the timing. Are they really so out of touch?

[MJP]

I increasingly get the impression that Brexiteers are the kind of people who belief if something isn't working, rather than repair it you kick it or hit it with a hammer.

I think it's becoming quite clear by now, that whatever it was that the Brexiteers wanted - and let's face it, it was pretty vague at best....they aren't gonna get it........even leaving the EU is a moot point, as for sovereignty and "immigration" it loos like we'll have to surrender more - great job Brexiteers

I know this is the Express, but in your opinion is this likely to be true?

European SUPERSTATE to be unveiled: EU nations 'to be morphed into one' post-Brexit

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

I want to see out bent bananas come back first - or at least get that bus off the moon that Hitler is living in.....

Do you think what is written in the article is likely to be true?

[SheungWan]

The Pound has already started tumbling like crazy

Yes cos the Rothchilds are pulling money to punish and to show the UK Sheep that they should not have done that.

NWO has had a very hard hit they just didn't expect that after the PSYOP and Jo Cox fiasco. they are throwing the bottle out of the pram and stomping feet.

Any nation Media or organisation that promotes and supports hatred of the older generation by the youth is no different from the Nazis

Interesting that neo-fascists (their calling card = Rothschild dog-whistle bone) are happy to sling the Nazi epithet around until one discovers that their historical roots are with the Brown Shirts and the Strasser Twins and blame Hitler for the Night of The Long Knives. I kid you not. Lovely bunch of people on the Brexit forum benches: 'The Jo Cox Fiasco'. Know what you are dealing with: it isn't pretty.

[cumgranosalum]

[mommysboy]

I've been looking at the various options that might be available in trade deals with EU. I thought I'd better do this, as nobody can really advise. Most of all the Brexiters themselves!!!

What strikes me immediately is that UK and EU are interdependent. This is important when considering the issue of tariffs, which are taxes levied on exports by the receiving country. The danger of imposing tariffs is that they get reciprocated. Thus if, say, the EU imposed a 30% tariff on UK car exports to the EU, then UK would likely impose a similar rate, or higher, on EU export of cars to the UK. Trade would be damaged all round. This would be particularly problematic for the German car industry which exports as much as 10% of its production to UK, and has a business interest in 50% of the very big UK car industry. This example might stand good for any number of sectors.

Contrary to popular belief UK most certainly does not have a whip hand in negotiations with the EU: simply because Britain needs an agreement more than the EU does. It's just a matter of size you see. Thus while EU benefits by being a net gainer in EU vs UK trade by a whopping 40 billion, this still represents a small percentage in EU terms, whereas 46% of UK exports go to the EU.

One other observation is that multi nationals would also have a big say. And they carry weight. To go back to the car example. BMW would be livid with both the UK and German Government if they hindered trade. It would be the same other big companies, hundreds of medium size companies, and tens of thousands of small businesses.

The WTO model. Quite simply no rules or agreement as such, but a right to trade. Things just kind of do or don't develop. These might include tariffs, but read as above as to why they might not be imposed, or may be low. It's a simple model and most importantly does not require negotiation. And means UK is free to negotiate with countries outside the EU free from EU regulations. It would also make a withdrawal from the EU much simpler and without conditions.

The 'Swiss' Model. A series of bilateral agreements, which may not be offered anymore as they took years to negotiate and were a nightmare; rather has the hallmarks of its parents then I would say.

The Norway Model. Single market model. This gives full access to the single market. Britain would join the European Free Trade Association. UK would need to make high contributions as now. Additionally it would have to agree to the free movement of labour. And adhere to EU specifications, eg, a size 1 egg must be such and such a height and weight. In return there is free trade for both parties. Crucially, it is granted by EU and can not be demanded. But there are significant advantages for EU too; an offer they would be mad to refuse in all honesty.

One of the UK's big cards is the city of London. Contrary to popular belief (including mine until very recently) it would not be decimated, in fact EU needs it. It is more than just access, UK has the best hard and soft infrastructure, expertise, an established customer base (the world basically) and every country needs to be there. Once again then there is a degree of interdependence only this time roles are reversed. EU could deny the UK so called 'financial passporting', but this is easily circumnavigated, and would undoubtedly result in harsh retribution.

Overall, it is 'I scratch your back if you scratch mine'. And the demands of commerce would likely ensure a mutually satisfactory solution in my opinion.

[MJP]

I've been looking at the various options that might be available in trade deals with EU. I thought I'd better do this, as nobody can really advise. Most of all the Brexiters themselves!!!

What strikes me immediately is that UK and EU are interdependent. This is important when considering the issue of tariffs, which are taxes levied on exports by the receiving country. The danger of imposing tariffs is that they get reciprocated. Thus if, say, the EU imposed a 30% tariff on UK car exports to the EU, then UK would likely impose a similar rate, or higher, on EU export of cars to the UK. Trade would be damaged all round. This would be particularly problematic for the German car industry which exports as much as 10% of its production to UK, and has a business interest in 50% of the very big UK car industry. This example might stand good for any number of sectors.

Contrary to popular belief UK most certainly does not have a whip hand in negotiations with the EU: simply because Britain needs an agreement more than the EU does. It's just a matter of size you see. Thus while EU benefits by being a net gainer in EU vs UK trade by a whopping 40 billion, this still represents a small percentage in EU terms, whereas 46% of UK exports go to the EU.

One other observation is that multi nationals would also have a big say. And they carry weight. To go back to the car example. BMW would be livid with both the UK and German Government if they hindered trade. It would be the same other big companies, hundreds of medium size companies, and tens of thousands of small businesses.

The WTO model. Quite simply no rules or agreement as such, but a right to trade. Things just kind of do or don't develop. These might include tariffs, but read as above as to why they might not be imposed, or may be low. It's a simple model and moist importantly does not require negotiation. And means UK is free to negotiate with countries outside the EU free from EU regulations. It would also make a withdrawal from the EU much simpler and without conditions.

The 'Swiss' Model. A series of bilateral agreements, which may not be offered anymore as they took years to negotiate and were a nightmare; rather has the hallmarks of its parents then I would say.

The Norway Model. Single market model. This gives full access to the single market. Britain would join the European Free Trade Association. UK would need to make high contributions as now. Additionally it would have to agree to the free movement of labour. And adhere to EU specifications, eg, a size 1 egg must be such and such a height and weight. In return there is free trade for both parties. Crucially, it is granted by EU and can not be demanded. But there are significant advantages for EU too; an offer they would be mad to refuse in all honesty.

One of the UK's big cards is the city of London. Contrary to popular belief (including mine) it would not be decimated, in fact EU needs it. It is more than just access, UK has the best hard and sof infrastructure, and established customer base (the world basically) and every country needs to be there. Once again then there is a degree of interdependence only this time roles are reversed. EU could deny the UK so called 'financial passporting', but this is easily circumnavigated, and would undoubtedly result in harsh retribution.

Overall, it is'I scratch your back if you scratch mine. And the demands of commerce would likely ensure a mutually satisfactory solution.

Norway model if available. I voted Leave to prevent being dragged into a centrally controlled (undemocratic) federalist "union", nothing to do with immigration.

Good job on bringing facts into threads, keep going, it's refreshing.

[bkkcanuck8]

One of the UK's big cards is the city of London. Contrary to popular belief (including mine) it would not be decimated, in fact EU needs it. It is more than just access, UK has the best hard and sof infrastructure, and established customer base (the world basically) and every country needs to be there. Once again then there is a degree of interdependence only this time roles are reversed. EU could deny the UK so called 'financial passporting', but this is easily circumnavigated, and would undoubtedly result in harsh retribution.

What hard or soft infrastructure do you think exists in London that is indispensable?

Fibre?? High Paid Traders?? Financial Institutions?

London has a larger trading industry because of the legacy of the Empire, which even when the Empire faded there were the existing relationships that continued. With England turning inward -- I don't expect collapse, but I do expect stagnation and a slow but constant trickle out .... relocating to where the action is.

High paid, High demand traders etc. will have no problem relocating.... especially if it is worth it to them. In fact many would have better lives elsewhere. Personally, it would be very very difficult to get me to return to London.... I was moved them "temporarily", but after a year there (actually 1 year, 1 day) they tried to pressure me to move their permanently ... with a subsidy.... so I left (I was ok working there when I every single expense was paid for)... nice place to visit but living in England... na, no way....

Sure, it won't happen over night -- just as a migration of 25% of the worlds manufacturing capacity moving to China overnight.... but things change....

In the first direct reflection of the uncertainty hitting business confidence, a leading business group said 20 percent of its members plan to move some of their operations outside of the U.K. The Institute of Directors said Monday that a survey of its 1,000 members showed that three out of four believe that Britain's exit from the EU, known as Brexit, will be bad for business. About a quarter said they would freeze hiring and five percent said they would cut jobs.

[Thaiwine]

I've been looking at the various options that might be available in trade deals with EU. I thought I'd better do this, as nobody can really advise. Most of all the Brexiters themselves!!!

What strikes me immediately is that UK and EU are interdependent. This is important when considering the issue of tariffs, which are taxes levied on exports by the receiving country. The danger of imposing tariffs is that they get reciprocated. Thus if, say, the EU imposed a 30% tariff on UK car exports to the EU, then UK would likely impose a similar rate, or higher, on EU export of cars to the UK. Trade would be damaged all round. This would be particularly problematic for the German car industry which exports as much as 10% of its production to UK, and has a business interest in 50% of the very big UK car industry. This example might stand good for any number of sectors.

Contrary to popular belief UK most certainly does not have a whip hand in negotiations with the EU: simply because Britain needs an agreement more than the EU does. It's just a matter of size you see. Thus while EU benefits by being a net gainer in EU vs UK trade by a whopping 40 billion, this still represents a small percentage in EU terms, whereas 46% of UK exports go to the EU.

One other observation is that multi nationals would also have a big say. And they carry weight. To go back to the car example. BMW would be livid with both the UK and German Government if they hindered trade. It would be the same other big companies, hundreds of medium size companies, and tens of thousands of small businesses.

The WTO model. Quite simply no rules or agreement as such, but a right to trade. Things just kind of do or don't develop. These might include tariffs, but read as above as to why they might not be imposed, or may be low. It's a simple model and most importantly does not require negotiation. And means UK is free to negotiate with countries outside the EU free from EU regulations. It would also make a withdrawal from the EU much simpler and without conditions.

The 'Swiss' Model. A series of bilateral agreements, which may not be offered anymore as they took years to negotiate and were a nightmare; rather has the hallmarks of its parents then I would say.

The Norway Model. Single market model. This gives full access to the single market. Britain would join the European Free Trade Association. UK would need to make high contributions as now. Additionally it would have to agree to the free movement of labour. And adhere to EU specifications, eg, a size 1 egg must be such and such a height and weight. In return there is free trade for both parties. Crucially, it is granted by EU and can not be demanded. But there are significant advantages for EU too; an offer they would be mad to refuse in all honesty.

One of the UK's big cards is the city of London. Contrary to popular belief (including mine until very recently) it would not be decimated, in fact EU needs it. It is more than just access, UK has the best hard and soft infrastructure, expertise, an established customer base (the world basically) and every country needs to be there. Once again then there is a degree of interdependence only this time roles are reversed. EU could deny the UK so called 'financial passporting', but this is easily circumnavigated, and would undoubtedly result in harsh retribution.

Overall, it is 'I scratch your back if you scratch mine'. And the demands of commerce would likely ensure a mutually satisfactory solution in my opinion.

I read this article earlier and was quite angry at the obvious betrayal of the British electorate, however I can see the sense of trying to find a half way house a little for everyone, ie, we stay in europe which keeps the scots happy for the minute, we would get our fishing grounds back, which would prob.. go to Scotland as a sweetner, we get soverignty back, we have freedom of movement, we will pay money to EU for free trade. loser NHS

Boris seems to be going for the Norway model.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36637037

[MJP]

I've been looking at the various options that might be available in trade deals with EU. I thought I'd better do this, as nobody can really advise. Most of all the Brexiters themselves!!!

What strikes me immediately is that UK and EU are interdependent. This is important when considering the issue of tariffs, which are taxes levied on exports by the receiving country. The danger of imposing tariffs is that they get reciprocated. Thus if, say, the EU imposed a 30% tariff on UK car exports to the EU, then UK would likely impose a similar rate, or higher, on EU export of cars to the UK. Trade would be damaged all round. This would be particularly problematic for the German car industry which exports as much as 10% of its production to UK, and has a business interest in 50% of the very big UK car industry. This example might stand good for any number of sectors.

Contrary to popular belief UK most certainly does not have a whip hand in negotiations with the EU: simply because Britain needs an agreement more than the EU does. It's just a matter of size you see. Thus while EU benefits by being a net gainer in EU vs UK trade by a whopping 40 billion, this still represents a small percentage in EU terms, whereas 46% of UK exports go to the EU.

One other observation is that multi nationals would also have a big say. And they carry weight. To go back to the car example. BMW would be livid with both the UK and German Government if they hindered trade. It would be the same other big companies, hundreds of medium size companies, and tens of thousands of small businesses.

The WTO model. Quite simply no rules or agreement as such, but a right to trade. Things just kind of do or don't develop. These might include tariffs, but read as above as to why they might not be imposed, or may be low. It's a simple model and most importantly does not require negotiation. And means UK is free to negotiate with countries outside the EU free from EU regulations. It would also make a withdrawal from the EU much simpler and without conditions.

The 'Swiss' Model. A series of bilateral agreements, which may not be offered anymore as they took years to negotiate and were a nightmare; rather has the hallmarks of its parents then I would say.

The Norway Model. Single market model. This gives full access to the single market. Britain would join the European Free Trade Association. UK would need to make high contributions as now. Additionally it would have to agree to the free movement of labour. And adhere to EU specifications, eg, a size 1 egg must be such and such a height and weight. In return there is free trade for both parties. Crucially, it is granted by EU and can not be demanded. But there are significant advantages for EU too; an offer they would be mad to refuse in all honesty.

One of the UK's big cards is the city of London. Contrary to popular belief (including mine until very recently) it would not be decimated, in fact EU needs it. It is more than just access, UK has the best hard and soft infrastructure, expertise, an established customer base (the world basically) and every country needs to be there. Once again then there is a degree of interdependence only this time roles are reversed. EU could deny the UK so called 'financial passporting', but this is easily circumnavigated, and would undoubtedly result in harsh retribution.

Overall, it is 'I scratch your back if you scratch mine'. And the demands of commerce would likely ensure a mutually satisfactory solution in my opinion.

I read this article earlier and was quite angry at the obvious betrayal of the British electorate, however I can see the sense of trying to find a half way house a little for everyone, ie, we stay in europe which keeps the scots happy for the minute, we would get our fishing grounds back, which would prob.. go to Scotland as a sweetner, we get soverignty back, we have freedom of movement, we will pay money to EU for free trade. loser NHS

Boris seems to be going for the Norway model.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36637037

All that £350m a week stuff was baloney anyway. If the economy does a proper downer there won't be an NHS left.

[mommysboy]

One of the UK's big cards is the city of London. Contrary to popular belief (including mine) it would not be decimated, in fact EU needs it. It is more than just access, UK has the best hard and sof infrastructure, and established customer base (the world basically) and every country needs to be there. Once again then there is a degree of interdependence only this time roles are reversed. EU could deny the UK so called 'financial passporting', but this is easily circumnavigated, and would undoubtedly result in harsh retribution.

What hard or soft infrastructure do you think exists in London that is indispensable?

Fibre?? High Paid Traders?? Financial Institutions?

London has a larger trading industry because of the legacy of the Empire, which even when the Empire faded there were the existing relationships that continued. With England turning inward -- I don't expect collapse, but I do expect stagnation and a slow but constant trickle out .... relocating to where the action is.

High paid, High demand traders etc. will have no problem relocating.... especially if it is worth it to them. In fact many would have better lives elsewhere. Personally, it would be very very difficult to get me to return to London.... I was moved them "temporarily", but after a year there (actually 1 year, 1 day) they tried to pressure me to move their permanently ... with a subsidy.... so I left (I was ok working there when I every single expense was paid for)... nice place to visit but living in England... na, no way....

Sure, it won't happen over night -- just as a migration of 25% of the worlds manufacturing capacity moving to China overnight.... but things change....

In the first direct reflection of the uncertainty hitting business confidence, a leading business group said 20 percent of its members plan to move some of their operations outside of the U.K. The Institute of Directors said Monday that a survey of its 1,000 members showed that three out of four believe that Britain's exit from the EU, known as Brexit, will be bad for business. About a quarter said they would freeze hiring and five percent said they would cut jobs.

I am not sure of the rights and wrongs of the argument, but I personally find your arguments lack general cogency: it seems that you fiercely round on anything that appears to show the UK in a positive light.

What I've posted is not definitive, and I would value genuine insight from someone in the know. I think we could all benefit from that.

[bkkcanuck8]

One of the UK's big cards is the city of London. Contrary to popular belief (including mine) it would not be decimated, in fact EU needs it. It is more than just access, UK has the best hard and sof infrastructure, and established customer base (the world basically) and every country needs to be there. Once again then there is a degree of interdependence only this time roles are reversed. EU could deny the UK so called 'financial passporting', but this is easily circumnavigated, and would undoubtedly result in harsh retribution.

What hard or soft infrastructure do you think exists in London that is indispensable?

Fibre?? High Paid Traders?? Financial Institutions?

London has a larger trading industry because of the legacy of the Empire, which even when the Empire faded there were the existing relationships that continued. With England turning inward -- I don't expect collapse, but I do expect stagnation and a slow but constant trickle out .... relocating to where the action is.

High paid, High demand traders etc. will have no problem relocating.... especially if it is worth it to them. In fact many would have better lives elsewhere. Personally, it would be very very difficult to get me to return to London.... I was moved them "temporarily", but after a year there (actually 1 year, 1 day) they tried to pressure me to move their permanently ... with a subsidy.... so I left (I was ok working there when I every single expense was paid for)... nice place to visit but living in England... na, no way....

Sure, it won't happen over night -- just as a migration of 25% of the worlds manufacturing capacity moving to China overnight.... but things change....

In the first direct reflection of the uncertainty hitting business confidence, a leading business group said 20 percent of its members plan to move some of their operations outside of the U.K. The Institute of Directors said Monday that a survey of its 1,000 members showed that three out of four believe that Britain's exit from the EU, known as Brexit, will be bad for business. About a quarter said they would freeze hiring and five percent said they would cut jobs.

I am not sure of the rights and wrongs of the argument, but I personally find your arguments lack general cogency: it seems that you fiercely round on anything that appears to show the UK in a positive light.

What I've posted is not definitive, and I would value genuine insight from someone in the know. I think we could all benefit from that.

I just find it hard to believe that a country outside the union would be the financial center for the union.... I would love it if it were possible, it would give Toronto a chance to challenge New York.... but I just think this it is just a pipe-dream..... London has it as part of a legacy of the Empire when trading for the entire Empire went through London -- but England outside of the EU is a rather small market in relation.