Sterling falls to new low against the dollar in Asia trade

[nausea]

Well, I take some comfort in the fact that the 800.000 in the bank is getting more and more valuable as we speak. Of course I'm screwed on the monthly income for the the time being, I don't know how it will work out in the long term, as it's index linked to the cost of living, or something.

[ilostmypassword]

Has Germany not been in the Euro since its inception? The Euro is considered weak compared to the Deutsche Mark, which is the one thing Germany fears the most. A return to the DM would see capital flood into their new (old) currency as it would be seen as a safe haven, ironically resulting in the collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy.

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

While it's true that are lots of great things about the German system that helps it be an export powerhouse, it's also true that its exports are being highly subsidized by the low value of the Euro in relation to the German economy. This makes it much harder for Euro nations that are in trouble to compete with Germany. If they had their own currencies, ithey would have been massively devalued and given them a competitive boost. Instead, the Euro's value depends on a weighting of the economic health of all of its members.

I see once again you dodged answering the question about Germany managing to become the powerhouse of Europe and all the while the DM was rising.

I dodged the question? Really? The very first clause of my first sentence was While it's true that are lots of great things about the German system that helps it be an export powerhouse So, no, I didn't dodge the question. Germany would still be a big exporter, but just not to the level it now is. If I were to say, "it's true I'm on a healthful diet, but I wouldn't be as strong as I am if I didn't exercise". would you say that I'm denying the importance of a healthful diet. The situation is exactly analagous.

[pitrevie]

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

What I am challenging here is that somehow a weakening of our currency will help. That is why I drew the parallel with Germany who for all those years had a straightening currency and yet became the power house of Europe. We were often told by people like Boris and Farage that a weakening pound would somehow be good for the UK. That sort of oversimplification is supported by many posters here. I then went on to say if that that were the case the UK would be the powerhouse and Germany would be the poor man of Europe. Germany didn't become the powerhouse of Europe because of its strengthening currency or indeed despite it. In fact your posting acknowledges that. The British pound weakening is going to play a very minor part if any at all in the future of the UK economy and the people who pushed that during the referendum debate as being a positive outcome are deluding themselves. Perhaps you need to read my previous posts and in particular the quote from a former industrialist Harvey Jones.

I don't need to read your previous posts, as I have been following this debate closely and in general agree with you.

My point here, my only point, was that your wording 'a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction' is not correct. The weakening pound was the result of the weak economy, not as your wording states the cause.

Well if you had read the whole thing in context you would have seen what I was getting at. Since the second WW a decline in the value of the pound has gone hand in hand with the decline of the British economy with a few blips along the way. The suggestion that a weakening pound would lead to a stronger economy as a result of that is just plain nonsense as suggested by others on this forum and the likes of Boris and Farage.. A weak economy doesn't lead to a stronger pound if anything the present weakening of the pound might give the economy a small fillip but the weakening of the economy will continue causing the pound to weaken even further. To paraphrase others, its the economy stupid (and here I am speaking in general terms not at you) and not the pound.

Edited July 7, 2016 by pitrevie

[MissAndry]

Well if you had read the whole thing in context you would have seen what I was getting at. Since the second WW a decline in the value of the pound has gone hand in hand with the decline of the British economy with a few blips along the way. The suggestion that a weakening pound would lead to a stronger economy as a result of that is just plain nonsense as suggested by others on this forum and the likes of Boris and Farage.. A weak economy doesn't lead to a stronger pound if anything the present weakening of the pound might give the economy a small fillip but the weakening of the economy will continue causing the pound to weaken even further. To paraphrase others, its the economy stupid (and here I am speaking in general terms not at you) and not the pound.

Now explain why the USD is so strong, when it's economy is being flushed down the toilet.

Then do it again for the Thai Baht.

[ilostmypassword]

I agree and it was a myth sold by Boris and Farage. If a weaker currency was the answer then Germany would by now be on its knees and the UK would be an economic power house.

Has Germany not been in the Euro since its inception? The Euro is considered weak compared to the Deutsche Mark, which is the one thing Germany fears the most. A return to the DM would see capital flood into their new (old) currency as it would be seen as a safe haven, ironically resulting in the collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy.

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

[SheungWan]

I'm ok with it being around 50 baht to the pound. I really can't see it going down much further than say 44 baht to the pound. To put that into perspective ,that's about 100 pounds sterling less on every thousand pound I spend every month. All that needs to be done is save 100 pounds per month. Bye bye fitness first for the Mrs ( not that she done anything else but take selfies anyway) that's 3000 baht right there. I will cut out the mon morning pi#s ups ,that's another 3000 baht. I'm already up. Simples.....

Everyone needs to stop panicking. And please stop talking about the great era of 70 baht or more to the pound, it really wasn't helping when it was in the 50s let alone now! ....

As I said stop panicking !!!!!!, ahhhhhhahhhhhhhhhahhhhh

Sure, and following that great bit of logic, no matter how far the pound drops to the baht, just stop more spending and start taking notes from those posters who claim they live very nicely on B20k/mo.

I live very nicely with less 20k. I live in a high rise building facing the sea, I don't need air conditioning and I take cold shower everyday. my last electric monthly bill was 200 baths. I eat fruits and chicken everyday directly from market, I ride a scooter, and I have still plenty of money to spend around if I want.

I spend probably less than 14k. just last month I spent 8k baths all included.

I told you to save money and live cheap.

you will realize than more you save, more you make money and more things you can get , it s just amazingly amazing.!

God created the universe from nothing, it s possible for you too.

So there we have it, a variation on the bag lady guide to success in life. This forum must contain the Brexit equivalent of the Galapagos Islands for differing supporter species.

[MJP]

I'm ok with it being around 50 baht to the pound. I really can't see it going down much further than say 44 baht to the pound. To put that into perspective ,that's about 100 pounds sterling less on every thousand pound I spend every month. All that needs to be done is save 100 pounds per month. Bye bye fitness first for the Mrs ( not that she done anything else but take selfies anyway) that's 3000 baht right there. I will cut out the mon morning pi#s ups ,that's another 3000 baht. I'm already up. Simples.....

Everyone needs to stop panicking. And please stop talking about the great era of 70 baht or more to the pound, it really wasn't helping when it was in the 50s let alone now! ....

As I said stop panicking !!!!!!, ahhhhhhahhhhhhhhhahhhhh

Sure, and following that great bit of logic, no matter how far the pound drops to the baht, just stop more spending and start taking notes from those posters who claim they live very nicely on B20k/mo.

I live very nicely with less 20k. I live in a high rise building facing the sea, I don't need air conditioning and I take cold shower everyday. my last electric monthly bill was 200 baths. I eat fruits and chicken everyday directly from market, I ride a scooter, and I have still plenty of money to spend around if I want.

I spend probably less than 14k. just last month I spent 8k baths all included.

I told you to save money and live cheap.

you will realize than more you save, more you make money and more things you can get , it s just amazingly amazing.!

God created the universe from nothing, it s possible for you too.

So there we have it, a variation on the bag lady guide to success in life. This forum must contain the Brexit equivalent of the Galapagos Islands for differing supporter species.

[mommysboy]

There's a great deal of pain to come for a few years. That is certain. The forces of phoney capitalism have been unleashed with fury already. And then there is the more real structural adjustments, which roughly translates as lower wages, less legal rights, higher taxes,slimmed down welfare state, and reduced pensions in real terms.

But there are benefits in being less eurocentric, it's just they will take a decade to make known.

Those who argue that a cheap pound, low wages, lighter regulatory touch, and existing goodwill won't help UK to weather this storm eventually are just scaremongering.

And as usual the assumption is made that everything is rosy in EU land. It isn't: lack of growth from EU has been a real drag, possibly the primary reason why global trade has not recovered.

[Khun Han]

Has Germany not been in the Euro since its inception? The Euro is considered weak compared to the Deutsche Mark, which is the one thing Germany fears the most. A return to the DM would see capital flood into their new (old) currency as it would be seen as a safe haven, ironically resulting in the collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy.

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

What I am challenging here is that somehow a weakening of our currency will help. That is why I drew the parallel with Germany who for all those years had a straightening currency and yet became the power house of Europe. We were often told by people like Boris and Farage that a weakening pound would somehow be good for the UK. That sort of oversimplification is supported by many posters here. I then went on to say if that that were the case the UK would be the powerhouse and Germany would be the poor man of Europe. Germany didn't become the powerhouse of Europe because of its strengthening currency or indeed despite it. In fact your posting acknowledges that. The British pound weakening is going to play a very minor part if any at all in the future of the UK economy and the people who pushed that during the referendum debate as being a positive outcome are deluding themselves. Perhaps you need to read my previous posts and in particular the quote from a former industrialist Harvey Jones.

And you have (probably inadvertently) flagged up a major cause of the UK's modern day financial predicament by quoting the late Sir John Harvey Jones: Thatcher's zealotry in destroying outdated and unprofitable heavy industry instead of trying to modernise and revive it, and in place promoting a 'casino' economy. The EU is, at best, no more relevant to this than any other large trading partner could be. Our own dynamism and resillience will eventually get us out of this mess. Suckling from the Eu's tit will just prolong it indefinitely and take the big decisions away from us forever.

[SheungWan]

I agree and it was a myth sold by Boris and Farage. If a weaker currency was the answer then Germany would by now be on its knees and the UK would be an economic power house.

Has Germany not been in the Euro since its inception? The Euro is considered weak compared to the Deutsche Mark, which is the one thing Germany fears the most. A return to the DM would see capital flood into their new (old) currency as it would be seen as a safe haven, ironically resulting in the collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy.

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

in general a growing economy coupled with a declining currency is a measure of that economy's relative decline measured against other economies' currencies.

[pitrevie]

I agree and it was a myth sold by Boris and Farage. If a weaker currency was the answer then Germany would by now be on its knees and the UK would be an economic power house.

Has Germany not been in the Euro since its inception? The Euro is considered weak compared to the Deutsche Mark, which is the one thing Germany fears the most. A return to the DM would see capital flood into their new (old) currency as it would be seen as a safe haven, ironically resulting in the collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy.

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

[MissAndry]

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

We, middle aged and old, people from the UK have never had it so good.

Our parents and grandparents endured WW1 and WW2, food shortages until the end of the 50s.

What hardships have we ever had?

I can remember how poor everyone was in the 60s and 70s, holidays were 2 weeks at Butlins if you were lucky.

Remember the movie 'Summer Holiday', a bus trip to Rome, way beyond the aspirations of any young person in the 60s, but now everyone expects at least a gap year in Asia.

My lifestyle is beyond their wildest dreams, and has been for the past 25 years, house, car foreign holidays 3 or 4 times a year, and now a year or more living in Asia.

The value of the GBP against the USD just isn't relevant in the greater scheme of things.

Edited July 7, 2016 by MissAndry

[MJP]

BBC: How low will sterling go?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36721278

Below parity

Jim Rogers, investor and chairman of Rogers Holdings: "It is going to go down a lot," he told the BBC in an interview. "It is going to go well below a dollar. Not this year, but before this is over. You should be very worried."

Depending on USD strength, this could mean 35THB or less to the Quid.

Probability?

[mommysboy]

BBC: How low will sterling go?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36721278

Below parity

Jim Rogers, investor and chairman of Rogers Holdings: "It is going to go down a lot," he told the BBC in an interview. "It is going to go well below a dollar. Not this year, but before this is over. You should be very worried."

Depending on USD strength, this could mean 35THB or less to the Quid.

Probability?

Unlikely to go that low. $1.15 USD I would guess as the lowest, the very lowest. And that assumes a negative outlook with hysteria continuing. Even at today's levels the UK has become a very attractive investment opportunity. But who knows with hysterical markets.

And if or instance an ok trade deal is struck whereby UK keeps financial passporting, or MiFID2 is accepted, expect it to go all the way back up to $1.50 pretty sharpish.

[MJP]

BBC: How low will sterling go?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36721278

Below parity

Jim Rogers, investor and chairman of Rogers Holdings: "It is going to go down a lot," he told the BBC in an interview. "It is going to go well below a dollar. Not this year, but before this is over. You should be very worried."

Depending on USD strength, this could mean 35THB or less to the Quid.

Probability?

Unlikely to go that low. $1.15 USD I would guess as the lowest, the very lowest. And that assumes a negative outlook with hysteria continuing. Even at today's levels the UK has become a very attractive investment opportunity. But who knows with hysterical markets.

And if or instance an ok trade deal is struck whereby UK keeps financial passporting, or MiFID2 is accepted, expect it to go all the way back up to $1.50 pretty sharpish.

Jim Rogers has always believed the UK is a third world country pretending to be otherwise. I little overly bearish, agreed.

[stevenl]

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

What I am challenging here is that somehow a weakening of our currency will help. That is why I drew the parallel with Germany who for all those years had a straightening currency and yet became the power house of Europe. We were often told by people like Boris and Farage that a weakening pound would somehow be good for the UK. That sort of oversimplification is supported by many posters here. I then went on to say if that that were the case the UK would be the powerhouse and Germany would be the poor man of Europe. Germany didn't become the powerhouse of Europe because of its strengthening currency or indeed despite it. In fact your posting acknowledges that. The British pound weakening is going to play a very minor part if any at all in the future of the UK economy and the people who pushed that during the referendum debate as being a positive outcome are deluding themselves. Perhaps you need to read my previous posts and in particular the quote from a former industrialist Harvey Jones.

I don't need to read your previous posts, as I have been following this debate closely and in general agree with you.

My point here, my only point, was that your wording 'a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction' is not correct. The weakening pound was the result of the weak economy, not as your wording states the cause.

Well if you had read the whole thing in context you would have seen what I was getting at. Since the second WW a decline in the value of the pound has gone hand in hand with the decline of the British economy with a few blips along the way. The suggestion that a weakening pound would lead to a stronger economy as a result of that is just plain nonsense as suggested by others on this forum and the likes of Boris and Farage.. A weak economy doesn't lead to a stronger pound if anything the present weakening of the pound might give the economy a small fillip but the weakening of the economy will continue causing the pound to weaken even further. To paraphrase others, its the economy stupid (and here I am speaking in general terms not at you) and not the pound.

As I said, but you seem having problems understanding that, I agree with you. I'm also glad to see you now write that a weak economy leads to a weak currency, and not your earlier statement that a weak currency leads to a weak economy.

[mommysboy]

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

We, middle aged and old, people from the UK have never had it so good.

Our parents and grandparents endured WW1 and WW2, food shortages until the end of the 50s.

What hardships have we ever had?

I can remember how poor everyone was in the 60s and 70s, holidays were 2 weeks at Butlins if you were lucky.

Remember the movie 'Summer Holiday', a bus trip to Rome, way beyond the aspirations of any young person in the 60s, but now everyone expects at least a gap year in Asia.

My lifestyle is beyond their wildest dreams, and has been for the past 25 years, house, car foreign holidays 3 or 4 times a year, and now a year or more living in Asia.

The value of the GBP against the USD just isn't relevant in the greater scheme of things.

Very, very true. Every word.

One thing I would say is that what youngsters really chafe under is phoney economics. They need real opportunities, which provide genuine hope for life improvement. When you have this, it is easier to endure the pain of struggle.

[stevenl]

I agree and it was a myth sold by Boris and Farage. If a weaker currency was the answer then Germany would by now be on its knees and the UK would be an economic power house.

Has Germany not been in the Euro since its inception? The Euro is considered weak compared to the Deutsche Mark, which is the one thing Germany fears the most. A return to the DM would see capital flood into their new (old) currency as it would be seen as a safe haven, ironically resulting in the collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy.

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

Small is not the same as weak.

[mommysboy]

BBC: How low will sterling go?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36721278

Below parity

Jim Rogers, investor and chairman of Rogers Holdings: "It is going to go down a lot," he told the BBC in an interview. "It is going to go well below a dollar. Not this year, but before this is over. You should be very worried."

Depending on USD strength, this could mean 35THB or less to the Quid.

Probability?

Unlikely to go that low. $1.15 USD I would guess as the lowest, the very lowest. And that assumes a negative outlook with hysteria continuing. Even at today's levels the UK has become a very attractive investment opportunity. But who knows with hysterical markets.

And if or instance an ok trade deal is struck whereby UK keeps financial passporting, or MiFID2 is accepted, expect it to go all the way back up to $1.50 pretty sharpish.

Jim Rogers has always believed the UK is a third world country pretending to be otherwise. I little overly bearish, agreed.

I expect Jim, like many others venting their fury, got burnt by the unexpected leave vote.

[MJP]

^^Rogers has maintained the same view of the UK for years. Claimed he wasn't in the Quid during Brexit.

Edited July 7, 2016 by MJP

[stevenl]

I agree and it was a myth sold by Boris and Farage. If a weaker currency was the answer then Germany would by now be on its knees and the UK would be an economic power house.

Has Germany not been in the Euro since its inception? The Euro is considered weak compared to the Deutsche Mark, which is the one thing Germany fears the most. A return to the DM would see capital flood into their new (old) currency as it would be seen as a safe haven, ironically resulting in the collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy.

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Devaluating currencies is in our open economies a thing of the past, and has been so for quite some time.

[returnofthailand]

we all live better not because of good economy, but of antibiotic.

if antibiotic didn't exist, we would be dead. life expectancy was 40 yo, not so long.

imagine, just a cut on your finger and you would be dead a few months later.

everything is much easier these days, and we complain for the pound going 10 percent down ? give me a break.

Edited July 7, 2016 by returnofthailand

[mommysboy]

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

What I am challenging here is that somehow a weakening of our currency will help. That is why I drew the parallel with Germany who for all those years had a straightening currency and yet became the power house of Europe. We were often told by people like Boris and Farage that a weakening pound would somehow be good for the UK. That sort of oversimplification is supported by many posters here. I then went on to say if that that were the case the UK would be the powerhouse and Germany would be the poor man of Europe. Germany didn't become the powerhouse of Europe because of its strengthening currency or indeed despite it. In fact your posting acknowledges that. The British pound weakening is going to play a very minor part if any at all in the future of the UK economy and the people who pushed that during the referendum debate as being a positive outcome are deluding themselves. Perhaps you need to read my previous posts and in particular the quote from a former industrialist Harvey Jones.

I don't need to read your previous posts, as I have been following this debate closely and in general agree with you.

My point here, my only point, was that your wording 'a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction' is not correct. The weakening pound was the result of the weak economy, not as your wording states the cause.

Well if you had read the whole thing in context you would have seen what I was getting at. Since the second WW a decline in the value of the pound has gone hand in hand with the decline of the British economy with a few blips along the way. The suggestion that a weakening pound would lead to a stronger economy as a result of that is just plain nonsense as suggested by others on this forum and the likes of Boris and Farage.. A weak economy doesn't lead to a stronger pound if anything the present weakening of the pound might give the economy a small fillip but the weakening of the economy will continue causing the pound to weaken even further. To paraphrase others, its the economy stupid (and here I am speaking in general terms not at you) and not the pound.

As I said, but you seem having problems understanding that, I agree with you. I'm also glad to see you now write that a weak economy leads to a weak currency, and not your earlier statement that a weak currency leads to a weak economy.

What you are saying is a weakened pound alone is not enough. Yes of course. One major factor is global demand. If your prospective buyer has so little spending power it may not make a difference. And of course other things have to be in place, eg, products and service that people want. Then there are such factors as tariffs, market access, your general competitivity.

It is likely that the decline in pound value over the last 70 years is more an effect than a cause. It does not follow that there is a reverse relationship at all. What you have here is an example of false logic imo.

But in some ways I agree. A weakened currency only works well in times when you are the only economy struggling, while others that count have a robust economy.

[pitrevie]

I agree and it was a myth sold by Boris and Farage. If a weaker currency was the answer then Germany would by now be on its knees and the UK would be an economic power house.

Has Germany not been in the Euro since its inception? The Euro is considered weak compared to the Deutsche Mark, which is the one thing Germany fears the most. A return to the DM would see capital flood into their new (old) currency as it would be seen as a safe haven, ironically resulting in the collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy.

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Devaluating currencies is in our open economies a thing of the past, and has been so for quite some time.

Yes of course the pounds sinks, is worth less than it was a month ago and it is not devalued certainly the UK economy is booming. I have no doubt that the new chancellor will announce lower taxes all round, more money for the NHS perhaps even 350 million a week and beer and fags are going to cost less. With such a vibrant economy what else could he do.

[stevenl]

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

What I am challenging here is that somehow a weakening of our currency will help. That is why I drew the parallel with Germany who for all those years had a straightening currency and yet became the power house of Europe. We were often told by people like Boris and Farage that a weakening pound would somehow be good for the UK. That sort of oversimplification is supported by many posters here. I then went on to say if that that were the case the UK would be the powerhouse and Germany would be the poor man of Europe. Germany didn't become the powerhouse of Europe because of its strengthening currency or indeed despite it. In fact your posting acknowledges that. The British pound weakening is going to play a very minor part if any at all in the future of the UK economy and the people who pushed that during the referendum debate as being a positive outcome are deluding themselves. Perhaps you need to read my previous posts and in particular the quote from a former industrialist Harvey Jones.

I don't need to read your previous posts, as I have been following this debate closely and in general agree with you.

My point here, my only point, was that your wording 'a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction' is not correct. The weakening pound was the result of the weak economy, not as your wording states the cause.

Well if you had read the whole thing in context you would have seen what I was getting at. Since the second WW a decline in the value of the pound has gone hand in hand with the decline of the British economy with a few blips along the way. The suggestion that a weakening pound would lead to a stronger economy as a result of that is just plain nonsense as suggested by others on this forum and the likes of Boris and Farage.. A weak economy doesn't lead to a stronger pound if anything the present weakening of the pound might give the economy a small fillip but the weakening of the economy will continue causing the pound to weaken even further. To paraphrase others, its the economy stupid (and here I am speaking in general terms not at you) and not the pound.

As I said, but you seem having problems understanding that, I agree with you. I'm also glad to see you now write that a weak economy leads to a weak currency, and not your earlier statement that a weak currency leads to a weak economy.

What you are saying is a weakened pound alone is not enough. Yes of course. One major factor is global demand. If your prospective buyer has so little spending power it may not make a difference. And of course other things have to be in place, eg, products and service that people want. Then there are such factors as tariffs, market access, your general competitivity.

It is likely that the decline in pound value over the last 70 years is more an effect than a cause. It does not follow that there is a reverse relationship at all. What you have here is an example of false logic imo.

But in some ways I agree. A weakened currency only works well in times when you are the only economy struggling, while others that count have a robust economy.

I'm saying what I wrote: the decline over the years is an effect of a weak economy, not a cause.

[stevenl]

I agree and it was a myth sold by Boris and Farage. If a weaker currency was the answer then Germany would by now be on its knees and the UK would be an economic power house.

Has Germany not been in the Euro since its inception? The Euro is considered weak compared to the Deutsche Mark, which is the one thing Germany fears the most. A return to the DM would see capital flood into their new (old) currency as it would be seen as a safe haven, ironically resulting in the collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy.

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Devaluating currencies is in our open economies a thing of the past, and has been so for quite some time.

Yes of course the pounds sinks, is worth less than it was a month ago and it is not devalued certainly the UK economy is booming. I have no doubt that the new chancellor will announce lower taxes all round, more money for the NHS perhaps even 350 million a week and beer and fags are going to cost less. With such a vibrant economy what else could he do.

If you don't understand a post, better not react to it.

[MJP]

There's a great deal of pain to come for a few years. That is certain. The forces of phoney capitalism have been unleashed with fury already. And then there is the more real structural adjustments, which roughly translates as lower wages, less legal rights, higher taxes,slimmed down welfare state, and reduced pensions in real terms.

But there are benefits in being less eurocentric, it's just they will take a decade to make known.

Those who argue that a cheap pound, low wages, lighter regulatory touch, and existing goodwill won't help UK to weather this storm eventually are just scaremongering.

And as usual the assumption is made that everything is rosy in EU land. It isn't: lack of growth from EU has been a real drag, possibly the primary reason why global trade has not recovered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwK0jeJ8wxg

[ilostmypassword]

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Do you mean he didn't mean to say that the British economy has been on the decline for 70 years because the pound has been declining in value for 70 years.? I can't construe any other meaning for his statement.

And if you rank nations with a population of 10,000,000 or more by nominal GDP per capita, the UK is in 3rd place after the USA and Canada. If you rank it by GDP adjusted for purchasing power, it's in 7th place.

Don't you get it? The nominal value of the pound is completely irrelevant. What counts is how many pounds of value there is in the British economy and the purchasing power of those pounds. By those measures the UK is doing fine. And the standard of living for the average UK resident is far higher than it was 70 years ago.

[ilostmypassword]

There's a great deal of pain to come for a few years. That is certain. The forces of phoney capitalism have been unleashed with fury already. And then there is the more real structural adjustments, which roughly translates as lower wages, less legal rights, higher taxes,slimmed down welfare state, and reduced pensions in real terms.

But there are benefits in being less eurocentric, it's just they will take a decade to make known.

Those who argue that a cheap pound, low wages, lighter regulatory touch, and existing goodwill won't help UK to weather this storm eventually are just scaremongering.

And as usual the assumption is made that everything is rosy in EU land. It isn't: lack of growth from EU has been a real drag, possibly the primary reason why global trade has not recovered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwK0jeJ8wxg

Most of the problems that you want to blame on the EU are actually caused by the conservative government. In effect, they slashed taxes on the rich, and either raised them on everyone else or cut services.

[MJP]

There's a great deal of pain to come for a few years. That is certain. The forces of phoney capitalism have been unleashed with fury already. And then there is the more real structural adjustments, which roughly translates as lower wages, less legal rights, higher taxes,slimmed down welfare state, and reduced pensions in real terms.

But there are benefits in being less eurocentric, it's just they will take a decade to make known.

Those who argue that a cheap pound, low wages, lighter regulatory touch, and existing goodwill won't help UK to weather this storm eventually are just scaremongering.

And as usual the assumption is made that everything is rosy in EU land. It isn't: lack of growth from EU has been a real drag, possibly the primary reason why global trade has not recovered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwK0jeJ8wxg

Most of the problems that you want to blame on the EU are actually caused by the conservative government. In effect, they slashed taxes on the rich, and either raised them on everyone else or cut services.

Listen to what Blyth says about the Eurozone.

By the way, was it not the Tory govt that finally increased the personal tax allowance solving years of fiscal drag under a Labour govt?