Is the Thai economy collapsing?

[elgordo38]

Interesting article in the Bangkok Post today about farmers defaulting on their debts.

Can you post a link if that is allowed?

[craigt3365]

Interesting article in the Bangkok Post today about farmers defaulting on their debts.

Can you post a link if that is allowed?

Sorry, not allowed. But it was on their front page a few hours ago.

[Asiantravel]

Interesting article in the Bangkok Post today about farmers defaulting on their debts.

Can you post a link if that is allowed?

Sorry, not allowed. But it was on their front page a few hours ago.

I wonder if this will lead to the second-hand pickup truck market becoming overwhelmed?

and today I was quite shocked at the number of " for rent / sale " signs on shuttered up shops along Theppraist Road.

Edited July 23, 2016 by Asiantravel

[joeyg]

The economy is in a bit of a mess for sure but no more than many Western countries

you must be delusional . the graft , skim , back-door money , what ever you want to call it has taken its toll on the health of the Thai economy that you never see in the west . inflation 3-4% every 90 days ? the near exclusion of imported goods because no viable way to scam them and make money , the national police force on the take or actively extorting citizens and visitors , state projects to many to mention for the sole purpose of a kick-back scheme ? decaying infrastructure that desperately needs help . the ten's of thousands of empty units while construction continues (the chinese way) . and last but not least , street crime up . when a ladyboy cant make money with it's mouth it will use the pointy end of it's shoes .dude you need to get out more often . i love this city , but am saddened by what a economy downturn does to it .

You've gotta a hell of a lot of nerve speaking the truth here...

[joeyg]

A few things about consumer credit in Thailand:

Household debt has more than tripled in the past ten years up to 10.7 trill. baht, that's over 80% of nominal GDP - circa 50% of it on mortgages, 25% on credit cards and 25% on car loans. Much of that was prompted by government plans to stimulate the economy, some of it is even backed by government lending. In effect this is government trying to stimulate the economy and initiate a consumer driven recovery, similar to the UK in many respects except there, 85% of consumer debt is based on mortgage lending. The problem is that houses tend to increase in value over time so a mortgage can be viewed as an appreciating asset, car loans and credit card spending is the opposite and that's the problem, 50% of the personal credit is on depreciating loans. (NB: The PI and Indonesia have low household debt of around 8%, Malaysia is closer to Thailand at 85%).

Estimates are that loan shark repayments now account for over 60% of household income, 60%! So the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, all at the behest of government and frequently with their assistance. Bank NPL's are up to circa 2.5%.

Difficult to see how this will play out, builders can build but the population can't afford to buy and there's already an oversupply and bank lending is getting tighter, L&H approval rates are down to 30%. Hopes seem to be pinned on a recovery in the West and in China, I wonder what plan B is!

There ya go. Letting the facts get in the way of a good story.

[Wilsonandson]

From my viewpoint, no is the quick answer to the OP.

Since the global crash in 2008 most economies have slowed in growth, but during that slow period many infastructure projects were started and now they are starting to pay off. The roads are busy with traffic, the supermarkets and local markets are busy. Small businesses are opening much more. It seems to be mirroring the Chinese economy. If China is doing well then so is Thailand. Nope, if you ask me since the Brexit fiasco the East has risen above Europe. The future is bright in the East but in the West, especially Europe, well lets say the media we read out here has shown us that Europe is weakening financially. So shouldn't the OP be writting a thread about the European Economic depression which looks likely to happen when the EU fails.

[Asiantravel]

From my viewpoint, no is the quick answer to the OP.

Since the global crash in 2008 most economies have slowed in growth, but during that slow period many infastructure projects were started and now they are starting to pay off. The roads are busy with traffic, the supermarkets and local markets are busy. Small businesses are opening much more. It seems to be mirroring the Chinese economy. If China is doing well then so is Thailand. Nope, if you ask me since the Brexit fiasco the East has risen above Europe. The future is bright in the East but in the West, especially Europe, well lets say the media we read out here has shown us that Europe is weakening financially. So shouldn't the OP be writting a thread about the European Economic depression which looks likely to happen when the EU fails.

" If China is doing well then so is Thailand."

but American billionaire Kyle Bass (as well as George Soros and Jim Channos ) have all bet fortunes against China because they claim it's a ticking time bomb of debt ( which has grown from $3 trillion to $34 trillion (or 340% of China’s GDP) just over the last 10 years. that is bound to affect Thailand one way or another surely?

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/060216/billionaire-kyle-bass-betting-china-collapse.asp

[craigt3365]

Interesting article in the Bangkok Post today about farmers defaulting on their debts.

Can you post a link if that is allowed?

Sorry, not allowed. But it was on their front page a few hours ago.

I wonder if this will lead to the second-hand pickup truck market becoming overwhelmed?

and today I was quite shocked at the number of " for rent / sale " signs on shuttered up shops along Theppraist Road.

I did a long walk along North Pattaya Road several months ago. At least 1/3rd of the shops are closed, for rent or for sale. Scary.

[Naam]

empty shops don't scare me. i don't own any shops.

[lannarebirth]

From my viewpoint, no is the quick answer to the OP.

Since the global crash in 2008 most economies have slowed in growth, but during that slow period many infastructure projects were started and now they are starting to pay off. The roads are busy with traffic, the supermarkets and local markets are busy. Small businesses are opening much more. It seems to be mirroring the Chinese economy. If China is doing well then so is Thailand. Nope, if you ask me since the Brexit fiasco the East has risen above Europe. The future is bright in the East but in the West, especially Europe, well lets say the media we read out here has shown us that Europe is weakening financially. So shouldn't the OP be writting a thread about the European Economic depression which looks likely to happen when the EU fails.

" If China is doing well then so is Thailand."

but American billionaire Kyle Bass (as well as George Soros and Jim Channos ) have all bet fortunes against China because they claim it's a ticking time bomb of debt ( which has grown from $3 trillion to $34 trillion (or 340% of China’s GDP) just over the last 10 years. that is bound to affect Thailand one way or another surely?

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/060216/billionaire-kyle-bass-betting-china-collapse.asp

Who knows? Maybe the US is headed for negative Bond yields like so many other countries and the carry trade starts up again. GMO 7 Year Forecast:

Edited July 24, 2016 by lannarebirth

[thaibeachlovers]

From my viewpoint, no is the quick answer to the OP.

Since the global crash in 2008 most economies have slowed in growth, but during that slow period many infastructure projects were started and now they are starting to pay off. The roads are busy with traffic, the supermarkets and local markets are busy. Small businesses are opening much more. It seems to be mirroring the Chinese economy. If China is doing well then so is Thailand. Nope, if you ask me since the Brexit fiasco the East has risen above Europe. The future is bright in the East but in the West, especially Europe, well lets say the media we read out here has shown us that Europe is weakening financially. So shouldn't the OP be writting a thread about the European Economic depression which looks likely to happen when the EU fails.

Small businesses are opening much more.

Do you have any stats to prove that?

It is contradicted by what I see in my local area, which is why I made the OP in the first place.

A year ago there were 2 photocopy places near where I live, now there is one, 3 mom and pop shops near where I live that were in business for many years have closed, the salapow business near where i live has closed, there is only one IT place near where I live now when there used to be 3.

Those businesses haven't moved to the suburbs, they were in the suburbs.

Finally, economic health is usually evidenced by new buildings going up; there is no new building activity going on around where I live.

[joeyg]

Playing golf with Adolph Hitler and Elvis Presley the other day, I bumped into a bloke who said the world is going to end next Tuesday. Should I stay make my -day report to Hua Hin immigration on Monday?

No.

[joeyg]

From my viewpoint, no is the quick answer to the OP.

Since the global crash in 2008 most economies have slowed in growth, but during that slow period many infastructure projects were started and now they are starting to pay off. The roads are busy with traffic, the supermarkets and local markets are busy. Small businesses are opening much more. It seems to be mirroring the Chinese economy. If China is doing well then so is Thailand. Nope, if you ask me since the Brexit fiasco the East has risen above Europe. The future is bright in the East but in the West, especially Europe, well lets say the media we read out here has shown us that Europe is weakening financially. So shouldn't the OP be writting a thread about the European Economic depression which looks likely to happen when the EU fails.

No. This forum and thread is about Thailand, not Europe.

[thrilled]

Nearly all countries are using fuzzy math.The US saying 18 -19 trillion debt.I believe it's more closer to 30 trillion.China saying 6%

Growth.More likely around 1%. So it's like musical chairs.When the music stops which it will sooner or later look out it will be rough.Thailand borrowing just like the rest of them.

[mania]

Nearly all countries are using fuzzy math.The US saying 18 -19 trillion debt.I believe it's more closer to 30 trillion.China saying 6%

Growth.More likely around 1%. So it's like musical chairs.When the music stops which it will sooner or later look out it will be rough.Thailand borrowing just like the rest of them.

That is true about the fuzzy math.

As for the music I guess it will continue as long as folks accept the paper scrip as a store of wealth

If at any point a rush for the door to leave the scrip or change to another occurs then the music stops

But until there is a suitable replacement & as long as folks continue to accept & use/believe in the papers value

the music will likely go on,,,,,Because really what does the debt matter? ......It was always just tokens of paper...They print/create evermore

paper/debt diluting the worth of the already worthless has no real impact does it?

Edited July 26, 2016 by mania

[elgordo38]

Interesting article in the Bangkok Post today about farmers defaulting on their debts.

Can you post a link if that is allowed?

Sorry, not allowed. But it was on their front page a few hours ago.

I wonder if this will lead to the second-hand pickup truck market becoming overwhelmed?

and today I was quite shocked at the number of " for rent / sale " signs on shuttered up shops along Theppraist Road.

I believe these facts more so than government "happy" numbers. Believe nothing of what you hear and half of what you see. For the sake of disclosure my old grandmother told me this and it stuck. Edited July 26, 2016 by elgordo38

[elgordo38]

Nearly all countries are using fuzzy math.The US saying 18 -19 trillion debt.I believe it's more closer to 30 trillion.China saying 6%

Growth.More likely around 1%. So it's like musical chairs.When the music stops which it will sooner or later look out it will be rough.Thailand borrowing just like the rest of them.

That is true about the fuzzy math.

As for the music I guess it will continue as long as folks accept the paper scrip as a store of wealth

If at any point a rush for the door to leave the scrip or change to another occurs then the music stops

But until there is a suitable replacement & as long as folks continue to accept & use/believe in the papers value

the music will likely go on,,,,,Because really what does the debt matter? ......It was always just tokens of paper...They print/create evermore

paper/debt diluting the worth of the already worthless has no real impact does it?

All fiat currencies have collapsed over time some faster than others. That is why gold has endured. Here is a link to comments made by 3 of the smartest guys in the world who have always made money for their clients even in bad years.http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/these-three-investing-legends-are-warning-of-another-market-crash/ar-BBuOoDi?li=AAggFp5

[mania]

Nearly all countries are using fuzzy math.The US saying 18 -19 trillion debt.I believe it's more closer to 30 trillion.China saying 6%

Growth.More likely around 1%. So it's like musical chairs.When the music stops which it will sooner or later look out it will be rough.Thailand borrowing just like the rest of them.

That is true about the fuzzy math.

As for the music I guess it will continue as long as folks accept the paper scrip as a store of wealth

If at any point a rush for the door to leave the scrip or change to another occurs then the music stops

But until there is a suitable replacement & as long as folks continue to accept & use/believe in the papers value

the music will likely go on,,,,,Because really what does the debt matter? ......It was always just tokens of paper...They print/create evermore

paper/debt diluting the worth of the already worthless has no real impact does it?

All fiat currencies have collapsed over time some faster than others. That is why gold has endured. Here is a link to comments made by 3 of the smartest guys in the world who have always made money for their clients even in bad years.http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/these-three-investing-legends-are-warning-of-another-market-crash/ar-BBuOoDi?li=AAggFp5

Preaching to the choir bro

But ultimately we deal in what is now

Edited July 26, 2016 by mania

[MissAndry]

I'm loading my hidden underground bunker with sacks of rice, flour and candles. You can keep your gold.

[elgordo38]

Nearly all countries are using fuzzy math.The US saying 18 -19 trillion debt.I believe it's more closer to 30 trillion.China saying 6%

Growth.More likely around 1%. So it's like musical chairs.When the music stops which it will sooner or later look out it will be rough.Thailand borrowing just like the rest of them.

That is true about the fuzzy math.

As for the music I guess it will continue as long as folks accept the paper scrip as a store of wealth

If at any point a rush for the door to leave the scrip or change to another occurs then the music stops

But until there is a suitable replacement & as long as folks continue to accept & use/believe in the papers value

the music will likely go on,,,,,Because really what does the debt matter? ......It was always just tokens of paper...They print/create evermore

paper/debt diluting the worth of the already worthless has no real impact does it?

All fiat currencies have collapsed over time some faster than others. That is why gold has endured. Here is a link to comments made by 3 of the smartest guys in the world who have always made money for their clients even in bad years.http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/these-three-investing-legends-are-warning-of-another-market-crash/ar-BBuOoDi?li=AAggFp5

Preaching to the choir bro

But ultimately we deal in what is now

I cannot even convert my kids forget about the choir. The pieces of life's jigsaw puzzle are falling into place I don seen de light finally. I quit being a marionette. Its amazing how we were so subtly manipulated over the years. I had to shed work marriage kids to see what was really going on in the world. Then I did a review by watching Oliver Stones "Untold History of America" a 10 part series. Then to understand the foundation of wealth America was built on watch "The Men Who Made America Great" Edited July 26, 2016 by elgordo38

[thaihome]

I'm loading my hidden underground bunker with sacks of rice, flour and candles. You can keep your gold.

You forgot weapons. Lots and lots of weapons and amunition.

TH

[elgordo38]

I'm loading my hidden underground bunker with sacks of rice, flour and candles. You can keep your gold.

You forgot weapons. Lots and lots of weapons and amunition.

TH

Human nature at work. Don't forget a flush toilet as well.

[Naam]

I cannot even convert my kids forget about the choir. The pieces of life's jigsaw puzzle are falling into place I don seen de light finally. I quit being a marionette. Its amazing how we were so subtly manipulated over the years. I had to shed work marriage kids to see what was really going on in the world. Then I did a review by watching Oliver Stones "Untold History of America" a 10 part series. Then to understand the foundation of wealth America was built on watch "The Men Who Made America Great"

and what did you gain by seeing or understanding what's really going on in the world? do you really think you quit being a marionette because you saw whatever light there was?

all of us were, are and will always remain puppets. and that applies even to the most powerful and/or wealthy persons on this planet. only the puppet masters are different.

[Naam]

All fiat currencies have collapsed over time some faster than others. That is why gold has endured. Here is a link to comments made by 3 of the smartest guys in the world who have always made money for their clients even in bad years.http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/these-three-investing-legends-are-warning-of-another-market-crash/ar-BBuOoDi?li=AAggFp5

it depends on the situation. presently gold has not more intrinsic value than the printed paper you call fiat money because anybody who has galore of the latter can buy gold galore.

however, being stranded on a remote island a man who owns a ton of gold is poor and starving, but a man with bow/arrows and a net is able to hunt and fish and survives.

[mania]

I cannot even convert my kids forget about the choir. The pieces of life's jigsaw puzzle are falling into place I don seen de light finally. I quit being a marionette. Its amazing how we were so subtly manipulated over the years. I had to shed work marriage kids to see what was really going on in the world. Then I did a review by watching Oliver Stones "Untold History of America" a 10 part series. Then to understand the foundation of wealth America was built on watch "The Men Who Made America Great"

and what did you gain by seeing or understanding what's really going on in the world? do you really think you quit being a marionette because you saw whatever light there was?

all of us were, are and will always remain puppets. and that applies even to the most powerful and/or wealthy persons on this planet. only the puppet masters are different.

^^^^^ This^^^^

This is the hard pill for folks to swallow.

They become "aware" of it & think they are "free" of it

[craigt3365]

In the Post, one bank just slashed it's growth estimate of new car loans from 15% to 3-5% for 2016. Huge drop.

[Asiantravel]

In the Post, one bank just slashed it's growth estimate of new car loans from 15% to 3-5% for 2016. Huge drop.

Does that mean a corresponding increase in shady deal loans from the sharks? even more desperate

[chiang mai]

In the Post, one bank just slashed it's growth estimate of new car loans from 15% to 3-5% for 2016. Huge drop.

Does that mean a corresponding increase in shady deal loans from the sharks? even more desperate

A person would have to have a screw loose to get a loan shark loan on a new car, it just doesn't happen I'm sure.

[watcharacters]

The Thai economy is somehow resilient..

[watcharacters]

The Thai economy is somehow resilient..