GB Pound will fall to around bt 39

[georgemandm]

Unfortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists. This is due to two factors. Firstly what most people do not appreciate is the fact that that the prosperity of Britain during the last two decades was due to its membership of the EU. Secondly, in spite of what some TV posters claim, the Thai economy is in far better shape than most countries and the Thai baht is a strong currency. The GB Pound has been falling for the last 10 years from a high of 73 baht To 45 baht now. The UK government is not particularly concerned about the falling pound because it will help exports which will probably be subject to tariffs in the EU. The UK will have strong inflation which will be one of the reasons for the falling of the value of the GB pound.

We're do you get it from the thai economy is in good shape?.

I would think the opposite.

Thailand is going ok but I can see thailand going the same as countries in the world were lots of people pay no TAX .

At that is thailand people don't pay much TAX .

[Johnniey]

the lowest it has ever been was in 1985 when it was 1.05 dollar to the pound

The lowest to the baht tat I remember was was 38 in Oct 1992

[rogeroc]

The UK has a fixation on the sacred cow of house prices. There was never really a huge correction, which is politically very sensitive. Any party that allowed the house prices to fall would be voted out. But now it has reached the point where most people under the age of 45 is unlikely to ever own a property, even with the historically low interest rates. They are simply paying too much in rent to be able to save for the large deposits required nowadays. This is incredibly bad for the economy, but chronic and continuing shortsightedness by governments over two decades has led to a massive housing shortfall.

I think it is incorrect that houses and flats are unaffordable. I say that as someone who brought a property in the suburbs of London in the early 80's. Interest rates were much higher then, mortgage lending would have been a maximum of 3 times salary and it still needed the combined income of 2 reasonable wage earners to afford something quite simple. The same applies now.

There may be other reasons for younger people not buying including:

different spending priorities

staying single longer

less job for life opportunities and therefore more uncertainty

property ownership at the height of fashion in the 80's

In the 80's it was also considered by most young people more desirable to live in the suburbs of London (where prices are cheaper) than in more expensive inner London areas which are considered more desirable now. Nearly all news articles about unaffordable housing relate to Inner London.

Edited July 29, 2016 by rogeroc

[oxo1947]

GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists.---OP

Who are...?....Please if you want to start a thread like that, at least provide some links to these --several leading economists

or we will all wonder just what you are smoking.....

Far too many to quote here. If you yourself did a bit of research and read up even some of the views of economists on the Internet I think that you will agree with me

several leading economists.

Yes Gamini the silence is defining----you don't actually have any links to any Leading Economists saying this do you.

OK....just gives us the bar that you heard it in......we will check it out ourselves.

.

Thanks for the nothing thread......."Just to many people to quote"........

[Baerboxer]

I agree completely, 39 is easily achievable, it's been long overdue in the sense that GBP has been over strength for a long time.

And for the poster above who thinks THB is being propped up, please elaborate and tell us all how this is done and by whom?

That would require a fall of around 13-14% in addition to the 12% fall following Brexit. Fanciable somewhat. The pound could slip to around $1.2 which, depending on the ThB to $ level could mean 41 ThB.

More likely is a range of around 43-48 ThB, maybe a little lower towards the end of the year, and possibly some dips on some announcements, (or even peaks given the unpredictable nature of the forex markets; and that no currency operates in isolation).

The BoT do, and probably will continue to, take action when necessary to prevent the Baht falling below whatever threshold they deem at the time.

No idea why you think the pound was over strength but that's about on a par with all those a couple of years ago who predicted the USD would be worthless by now. The danger currency is the Euro - too much false accounting and spending beyond means in many member states; having to find the UK's net contribution from others; and the problems with banks in Italy and Germany.

[chiang mai]

I agree completely, 39 is easily achievable, it's been long overdue in the sense that GBP has been over strength for a long time.

And for the poster above who thinks THB is being propped up, please elaborate and tell us all how this is done and by whom?

That would require a fall of around 13-14% in addition to the 12% fall following Brexit. Fanciable somewhat. The pound could slip to around $1.2 which, depending on the ThB to $ level could mean 41 ThB.

More likely is a range of around 43-48 ThB, maybe a little lower towards the end of the year, and possibly some dips on some announcements, (or even peaks given the unpredictable nature of the forex markets; and that no currency operates in isolation).

The BoT do, and probably will continue to, take action when necessary to prevent the Baht falling below whatever threshold they deem at the time.

No idea why you think the pound was over strength but that's about on a par with all those a couple of years ago who predicted the USD would be worthless by now. The danger currency is the Euro - too much false accounting and spending beyond means in many member states; having to find the UK's net contribution from others; and the problems with banks in Italy and Germany.

"The BoT do, and probably will continue to, take action when necessary to prevent the Baht falling below whatever threshold they deem at the time"

Against USD, not against the Pound.

"No idea why you think the pound was over strength".

Current account deficit, end of story.

Note: it may help you to read some of the links provided, they do provide some insight, as uncomfortable as that picture may be.

.

[thai3]

the lowest it has ever been was in 1985 when it was 1.05 dollar to the pound

The lowest to the baht tat I remember was was 38 in Oct 1992

Lowest ever was 8 baht to the pound- in the 19th c

[12DrinkMore]

Unfortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists. This is due to two factors. Firstly what most people do not appreciate is the fact that that the prosperity of Britain during the last two decades was due to its membership of the EU. Secondly, in spite of what some TV posters claim, the Thai economy is in far better shape than most countries and the Thai baht is a strong currency. The GB Pound has been falling for the last 10 years from a high of 73 baht To 45 baht now. The UK government is not particularly concerned about the falling pound because it will help exports which will probably be subject to tariffs in the EU. The UK will have strong inflation which will be one of the reasons for the falling of the value of the GB pound.

We're do you get it from the thai economy is in good shape?.

I would think the opposite.

Thailand is going ok but I can see thailand going the same as countries in the world were lots of people pay no TAX .

At that is thailand people don't pay much TAX .

Oh really?

What happens when you buy anything at a supermarket?

Or put fuel in your tank.

Or buy a beer?

Or buy imported goods.

The threshhold for personal tax is set relatively high, so a lot of people do not pay it. This is quite positive, as it saves all the administration costs. VAT is required for businesses with a turnover of 1.8 million Baht (last time I checked) so all the small businesses do not have to pay. Again this is positive, as it encourages small business start ups without having the taxman immediately coming around.

[12DrinkMore]

The UK has a fixation on the sacred cow of house prices. There was never really a huge correction, which is politically very sensitive. Any party that allowed the house prices to fall would be voted out. But now it has reached the point where most people under the age of 45 is unlikely to ever own a property, even with the historically low interest rates. They are simply paying too much in rent to be able to save for the large deposits required nowadays. This is incredibly bad for the economy, but chronic and continuing shortsightedness by governments over two decades has led to a massive housing shortfall.

I think it is incorrect that houses and flats are unaffordable. I say that as someone who brought a property in the suburbs of London in the early 80's. Interest rates were much higher then, mortgage lending would have been a maximum of 3 times salary and it still needed the combined income of 2 reasonable wage earners to afford something quite simple. The same applies now.

There may be other reasons for younger people not buying including:

different spending priorities

staying single longer

less job for life opportunities and therefore more uncertainty

property ownership at the height of fashion in the 80's

In the 80's it was also considered by most young people more desirable to live in the suburbs of London (where prices are cheaper) than in more expensive inner London areas which are considered more desirable now. Nearly all news articles about unaffordable housing relate to Inner London.

In the 80's a couple of year's after graduation I managed to get a mortgage at 2.5 * my salary plus 1 * my wife's, with a ten percent deposit saved because we had no college debt and lived in a council flat with a very small rent. That purchased a Victorian three bedroomed property in need of renovation.

Young people still want to buy a property, it is in the UK genes. A lot have simply given up the idea.

Student debt and high rents prevent saving the deposit.

The multiples of salaries I mentioned for recent graduates would not amount to even 50% of the price of a decent house somewhere near areas with decent employment prospects.

---

But the main point I was trying to make is that high property prices mean high rents and high mortgages. This sucks the cash out of the pockets of the younger generation who want to set up homes and buy stuff. The money ends up in the pockets of the bankers and landlords.

Chasing house prices higher and higher is simply not the best way of running an economy.

[Happy Grumpy]

Sweet.

Do I need a Tor Tor Saam to buy UK Property.

[happy Joe]

I think there are two extremes:

1 White - UK finally accept a status similar to Norway. The voters are betrayed but the country overall retains its advantages. In this case the pound back, but without catch up the level before Brexit.

2 Black - UK applies Brexit literally and is definitively out of the EU area. It loses all its agreements and is in competition with emerging countries to sell its production and services. The City loses more than half of its assets. The bilateral agreements with some countries do not offset the loss of previous markets.

Concurrently, it must manage the partition ask of Scotland, Ulster and probably others more far.

In this extreme case, pound will actually collapse for a very long time.

Obviously, the intermediate levels may be chosen.

[12DrinkMore]

I think there are two extremes:

1 White - UK finally accept a status similar to Norway. The voters are betrayed but the country overall retains its advantages. In this case the pound back, but without catch up the level before Brexit.

2 Black - UK applies Brexit literally and is definitively out of the EU area. It loses all its agreements and is in competition with emerging countries to sell its production and services. The City loses more than half of its assets. The bilateral agreements with some countries do not offset the loss of previous markets.

Concurrently, it must manage the partition ask of Scotland, Ulster and probably others more far.

In this extreme case, pound will actually collapse for a very long time.

Obviously, the intermediate levels may be chosen.

Well, that was helpful. We must be in a grayzone?

[Crash999]

Bunch of baloney. Economists don't make forex predictions.

Traders have already factored in a post Brexit economy. Now we will see if their assumptions come true. Given some major investments in the UK announced recently it seems like the doom and gloom may have been overhyped.

[ozyjon]

Your post may have some truth in it or not if you

gave some links and references to just who the

"leading economists" are and who they work for.

Do you want me to chew your food and wipe your

bottom as well (not personal) there is just so much

stuff on world politics and world finances that a

simple youtube search would give you all the links

you need, also there is no reason to justify many

comments because it's all out in cyberworld,

just start looking before it's too late.

[bitcoinforever]

markest hate uncertainty and that is what you will have over the next 2 years while GB plans its exit from the euro zone. so for at least the next 2 years Gb will be lower . do not listen to talking heads and economist the do not trade for a living so they always get it wrong, remember gold going to 5000, PEAK OIL. BREXIT vote big things they all got wrong. over the next 2 years Gb may go to parity with the dollar in all the uncertainty and confusion but long term it will be higher than before BREXIT. question is can you hang on through the worst of it.

[billd766]

The decline in the value of GBP against THB has almost nothing to do with Brexit, all Brexit has done is accelerate the process hence looking for pre-Brexit values in 5 years time is a waste of time, you need to look elsewhere for the reasons why and the potential cures. This may help:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

The analysts are from the Deutsche Bank?

Isn't the Deutsche Bank in deep financial trouble and the Telegraph wants me to believe that the GBP is the most overvalued currency in the whole world.

Pardon me if I take that with a shovelful of salt.

When the Brexit takes place in the relatively near future who will take up the British contributions?

Please read my post#3 with its comments from the BBC News about the Deutsche Bank.

Edited July 29, 2016 by billd766

[billd766]

quote "Unfortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists."

Your post may have some truth in it or not if you gave some links and references to just who the "leading economists" are and who they work for.

Strangely enough I did a Google search for "Unfortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists." and the only reference I found was from Thai visa on this very thread.

However without any references it doesn't mean very much.

The EU for example has even bigger financial problems with Greece and Italy not to mention Deutsche Bank but you have made no mention of that.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36723034

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36902088

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36898619

When the UK completes the Brexit which country will step up and increase their financial contributions?

The Netherlands, France and Germany are also possible contenders for an exit.

I read on the BBC News website this morning that Angela Merkel has ruled out a reversal of the immigration policy and will continue to permit virtually unrestricted immigration by "refugees". Who will pay for them?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36912141

The points which you have raised have little to do with my post. I personally have no views on Brexit. My information was gleaned on a lot of research about the GP pound since among others, I have considerable assets in that currency.

As far as the UK contribution to the EU budget. It gets back about the same as it puts in, so the EU will not be effected

But you still give NO references as to why the GBP will sink to 39 baht per GBP. If you have done considerable research you must have references or your post is meaningless.

And, NO the UK does NOT get back from the EU what it puts in.

Do you have any references for that or do I have to do the search for you?

[ableguy]

When the pound was at 73 baht, it was the Baht that collapsed not the pound that gained in strength under its own merit,

[ableguy]

the pound over valued at 1 pound = 1 us dollar ?

The US economy is in fact actually growing. They have even had the house pricee correction. The Fed is also muttering about raising interest rates. And the USD is the world's reserve currency.

The UK doesn't seem to export much these days, it has been running an increasing current account deficit for years. I doubt whether the UK will be able to make "advantageous" deals with the Eurozone. There will be a lot of political pressure in Europe to penalise the bad boy. Do not expect any "lucrative" deals for the UK, which it could not even achieve when in the EU. Not moving from the GBP to the EUR was always going to put the UK on the outside of European leadership. "Not one of the club".

The big earner over the last decade has been the financial services sector running out of London. There will be pressure on European banks to move back to Europe and London will become less significant anyway as the Asians will be dealing in Hong Kong and Singapore.

The UK has a fixation on the sacred cow of house prices. There was never really a huge correction, which is politically very sensitive. Any party that allowed the house prices to fall would be voted out. But now it has reached the point where most people under the age of 45 is unlikely to ever own a property, even with the historically low interest rates. They are simply paying too much in rent to be able to save for the large deposits required nowadays. This is incredibly bad for the economy, but chronic and continuing shortsightedness by governments over two decades has led to a massive housing shortfall.

So now we have Theresa coming to "boost the north" and rejuvenate the economy. But unfortunately the "shovel ready" projects have still not been prepared.

The UK has been in decline for decades, masked by the growth in the financial services, which I personally regard as more of a parasite full of rent seekers. This cannot be blamed on Brexit, but put firmly on the attitude of the Brits themselves, regarding themselves still as having an empire controlling 60% of the world's trade and feeling wealthy due to rising propoerty prices.

I have colleagues in the UK who have gotten very lazy, sitting back and stating they can earn more from rising house prices than bothering to work. Sums it up.

So come on, give me some good news.

What has the UK got that the world is going to want to buy?

A lot of very fat divorced wives whose ex husbands are now living with delightful young issan girls, not sure what the going rate it is for the divorced belles of the sixties .

[Enoon]

the pound over valued at 1 pound = 1 us dollar ?

The US economy is in fact actually growing. They have even had the house pricee correction. The Fed is also muttering about raising interest rates. And the USD is the world's reserve currency.

The UK doesn't seem to export much these days, it has been running an increasing current account deficit for years. I doubt whether the UK will be able to make "advantageous" deals with the Eurozone. There will be a lot of political pressure in Europe to penalise the bad boy. Do not expect any "lucrative" deals for the UK, which it could not even achieve when in the EU. Not moving from the GBP to the EUR was always going to put the UK on the outside of European leadership. "Not one of the club".

The big earner over the last decade has been the financial services sector running out of London. There will be pressure on European banks to move back to Europe and London will become less significant anyway as the Asians will be dealing in Hong Kong and Singapore.

The UK has a fixation on the sacred cow of house prices. There was never really a huge correction, which is politically very sensitive. Any party that allowed the house prices to fall would be voted out. But now it has reached the point where most people under the age of 45 is unlikely to ever own a property, even with the historically low interest rates. They are simply paying too much in rent to be able to save for the large deposits required nowadays. This is incredibly bad for the economy, but chronic and continuing shortsightedness by governments over two decades has led to a massive housing shortfall.

So now we have Theresa coming to "boost the north" and rejuvenate the economy. But unfortunately the "shovel ready" projects have still not been prepared.

The UK has been in decline for decades, masked by the growth in the financial services, which I personally regard as more of a parasite full of rent seekers. This cannot be blamed on Brexit, but put firmly on the attitude of the Brits themselves, regarding themselves still as having an empire controlling 60% of the world's trade and feeling wealthy due to rising propoerty prices.

I have colleagues in the UK who have gotten very lazy, sitting back and stating they can earn more from rising house prices than bothering to work. Sums it up.

So come on, give me some good news.

What has the UK got that the world is going to want to buy?

What has the UK got?

Old peoples delusions of the past reborn. Young peoples despair at a future snatched away.

Buy one, get one free.

[chiang mai]

The decline in the value of GBP against THB has almost nothing to do with Brexit, all Brexit has done is accelerate the process hence looking for pre-Brexit values in 5 years time is a waste of time, you need to look elsewhere for the reasons why and the potential cures. This may help:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

The analysts are from the Deutsche Bank?

Isn't the Deutsche Bank in deep financial trouble and the Telegraph wants me to believe that the GBP is the most overvalued currency in the whole world.

Pardon me if I take that with a shovelful of salt.

When the Brexit takes place in the relatively near future who will take up the British contributions?

Please read my post#3 with its comments from the BBC News about the Deutsche Bank.

I could find you several other articles quoting different sources but it wouldn't make any difference in your case billl because I know what you think of analysis and economists. You also think a bank is a single entity, it's not, it's a series of discreet internal entities, each of which is ring fenced and they don't talk to each other, in some cases they're not allowed to do so.

So when an article talks of "their analysts", that's got zero to do with "their investments".

[i claudius]

When the pound was at 73 baht, it was the Baht that collapsed not the pound that gained in strength under its own merit,

Wrong ,the baht collapsed in 97 then it was over 90 to the pound , back in 2006 when it was up to 73 the pound was strong ,not the baht weak, get your facts right , you know very little .

[Kwasaki]

Oh dear another rise in the cost of beer because of the dam exchange rate.

[Jip99]

When the pound was at 73 baht, it was the Baht that collapsed not the pound that gained in strength under its own merit,

Wrong ,the baht collapsed in 97 then it was over 90 to the pound , back in 2006 when it was up to 73 the pound was strong ,not the baht weak, get your facts right , you know very little .

i claudius is correct.

In 2006/7 the GBP/USD rate was 1.85 to over 2 and I recall importing rice into England at a rate above $2 to the Pound. I was buying Euro at 1.48 !

[chiang mai]

The subject is GBP/THB, is it not, there's shed loads of Eu threads elsewhere.

[billd766]

The decline in the value of GBP against THB has almost nothing to do with Brexit, all Brexit has done is accelerate the process hence looking for pre-Brexit values in 5 years time is a waste of time, you need to look elsewhere for the reasons why and the potential cures. This may help:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

The analysts are from the Deutsche Bank?

Isn't the Deutsche Bank in deep financial trouble and the Telegraph wants me to believe that the GBP is the most overvalued currency in the whole world.

Pardon me if I take that with a shovelful of salt.

When the Brexit takes place in the relatively near future who will take up the British contributions?

Please read my post#3 with its comments from the BBC News about the Deutsche Bank.

I could find you several other articles quoting different sources but it wouldn't make any difference in your case billl because I know what you think of analysis and economists. You also think a bank is a single entity, it's not, it's a series of discreet internal entities, each of which is ring fenced and they don't talk to each other, in some cases they're not allowed to do so.

So when an article talks of "their analysts", that's got zero to do with "their investments".

Then why do so many posters quote investment analysts?

We can't all be wrong and the analysts always right. Recent history has proved that.

Think back just a few years to the 2008 banking crisis and further back to the 1980s and 1990s with banks , building societies falling down all over the world. The USA with its financial crisis with Freddie Mac and Fannie May as an example and the UK banking scandal.

Fortunately for me we own the house here free and clear so there are no housing problems for us.

I use banks because I HAVE to to get my pensions transferred to Thailand But there is only a bare minimum of money left in the account at the end of the month because I clear it out. We have no credit cards and so pay no high rates of interest for them.

I can remember when banks and building societies could be trusted with your money.

When I bought my first house with a mortgage it cost £30,000 in 1984. We sold that in 1987 for £62,000 and paid £72,000 for a 3 bed semi near Portsmouth. Inside 6 months I could have sold it in a day for £100,000 yet 6 months later I couldn't even sell it for £55,000 and my mortgage rate had gone from about 7% to about 17%.

When I got divorced I signed it over to my ex wife and she eventually sold it for £175,000 in 2004 and she downsized to a flat.

When the house was built in 1964 it only cost £4,000 yet it was still basically the same house when my wife sold it.

Edited July 30, 2016 by billd766

[billd766]

The subject is GBP/THB, is it not, there's shed loads of Eu threads elsewhere.

I am sorry if I went off topic but I was responding to you and another poster. mea culpa.

Edited July 30, 2016 by billd766

[chiang mai]

The decline in the value of GBP against THB has almost nothing to do with Brexit, all Brexit has done is accelerate the process hence looking for pre-Brexit values in 5 years time is a waste of time, you need to look elsewhere for the reasons why and the potential cures. This may help:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

The analysts are from the Deutsche Bank?

Isn't the Deutsche Bank in deep financial trouble and the Telegraph wants me to believe that the GBP is the most overvalued currency in the whole world.

Pardon me if I take that with a shovelful of salt.

When the Brexit takes place in the relatively near future who will take up the British contributions?

Please read my post#3 with its comments from the BBC News about the Deutsche Bank.

I could find you several other articles quoting different sources but it wouldn't make any difference in your case billl because I know what you think of analysis and economists. You also think a bank is a single entity, it's not, it's a series of discreet internal entities, each of which is ring fenced and they don't talk to each other, in some cases they're not allowed to do so.

So when an article talks of "their analysts", that's got zero to do with "their investments".

Then why do so many posters quote investment analysts?

We can't all be wrong and the analysts always right. Recent history has proved that.

Think back just a few years to the 2008 banking crisis and further back to the 1980s and 1990s with banks , building societies falling down all over the world. The USA with its financial crisis with Freddie Mac and Fannie May as an example and the UK banking scandal.

Fortunately for me we own the house here free and clear so there are no housing problems for us.

I use banks because I HAVE to to get my pensions transferred to Thailand But there is only a bare minimum of money left in the account at the end of the month because I clear it out. We have no credit cards and so pay no high rates of interest for them.

I can remember when banks and building societies could be trusted with your money.

When I bought my first house with a mortgage it cost £30,000 in 1984. We sold that in 1987 for £62,000 and paid £72,000 for a 3 bed semi near Portsmouth. Inside 6 months I could have sold it in a day for £100,000 yet 6 months later I couldn't even sell it for £55,000 and my mortgage rate had gone from about 7% to about 17%.

When I got divorced I signed it over to my ex wife and she eventually sold it for £175,000 in 2004 and she downsized to a flat.

When the house was built in 1964 it only cost £4,000 yet it was still basically the same house when my wife sold it.

"Then why do so many posters quote investment analysts?"

Who better to quote, when we don't know ourselves, who better to look to than people who are employed to study such things, people who are trained in how to do the analysis and people who are employed by top tier financial institutions to do it for a living?

[CharlieH]

Off topic posts will be removed.

Please try to stay on the topic of the OP.

[MissAndry]

Who better to quote, when we don't know ourselves, who better to look to than people who are employed to study such things, people who are trained in how to do the analysis and people who are employed by top tier financial institutions to do it for a living?

Maybe we should quote people with a record of getting their predictions right ....... but there aren't any of those.

All the 'analysts' seem criminally incompetent to me, so no point in quoting them.

And all their employers seem to be on the verge of bankruptcy.

I guess if my daddy had the right title and the right connections and paid for me to go to the right school, I could have been an analyst for a rich bank or investment company too. Then they could have paid me to 'study' and make predictions.

The truth is most of these guys are total wan*&^s, I should know, I was married to one long enough.

Pie is so funny because he has these guys exactly right .........

Edited July 30, 2016 by MissAndry