Brexit 'means economy faces 50/50 recession chance'

[webfact]

Brexit 'means economy faces 50/50 recession chance'

 

LONDON: -- The UK has a 50/50 chance of falling into recession within the next 18 months following the Brexit vote, says a leading economic forecaster.

 

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) says the country will go through a "marked economic slowdown" this year and next.

 

It says inflation will also pick up, rising to 3% by the end of next year.

 

Full story: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36953247

 

-- BBC 2016-08-03

[i claudius]

As i said once before , the E.U is like the Titanic , heading for an iceberg , at least we got out early in a nice lifeboat , rather than later clinging to a wooden raft .

[billd766]

Yet another "leading economic forecaster" giving his "expert opinion" which, at the end of the day, is just the same as me tossing a coin and getting the right answer.

[Skywalker69]

3 hours ago, i claudius said:

As i said once before , the E.U is like the Titanic , heading for an iceberg , at least we got out early in a nice lifeboat , rather than later clinging to a wooden raft .

You're not out yet.  It will take at least two  years.

[chiang mai]

21 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Yet another "leading economic forecaster" giving his "expert opinion" which, at the end of the day, is just the same as me tossing a coin and getting the right answer.

You really should stop saying that in public, you make it sound as though you think,  nobody in the world knows any more than anyone else on any economic or financial issue and that is of course nonsense.

[billd766]

22 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

You really should stop saying that in public, you make it sound as though you think,  nobody in the world knows any more than anyone else on any economic or financial issue and that is of course nonsense.

 

Why should I stop saying that.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36953247

 

What he said is that there is a 50/50 chance of a recession.

 

Anyone can get those odds by tossing a coin.

 

Would you accept that I am correct if I said that there is a 50/50 chance that the Brexit means that there will be no recession simply because I am not a financial expert?

 

Of course you wouldn't, but that is exactly the result that this leading economic forecaster has said.

 

In fact both of us are correct.

 

BTW if you don't like reading my posts please feel free to ignore them, or if they upset you so much you could report me to the moderators. I am quite happy to accept their decision, but not, however, yours.

 

I promise that I won't cry or spit my dummy across the room.

 

I look at things from a positive point of view and others tend to look negatively.

Edited August 3, 2016 by billd766
Bad grammar on my part. Copy and paste 100 times, their is not there.

[neverdie]

53 minutes ago, Skywalker69 said:

You're not out yet.  It will take at least two  years.

 

Floating in a nice 'inflatable' life boat in an icy ocean filled with sharp piercing objects.

 

There will be a depression, not a recession. Peel away all the government properganda about economies doing well and you will reveal the conditions are almost perfect for a depression like Never seen before.

 

its time to pay the piper folks.

[JHolmesJr]

Thats like saying 'we could go into a recession'….'but then again, we may not'.

 

Where's the brilliance they are getting paid the big bucks for?

[chiang mai]

23 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

Why should I stop saying that.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36953247

 

What he said is that there is a 50/50 chance of a recession.

 

Anyone can get those odds by tossing a coin.

 

Would you accept that I am correct if I said that there is a 50/50 chance that the Brexit means that there will be no recession simply because I am not a financial expert?

 

Of course you wouldn't, but that is exactly the result that this leading economic forecaster has said.

 

In fact both of us are correct.

 

BTW if you don't like reading my posts please feel free to ignore them, or if they upset you so much you could report me to the moderators. I am quite happy to accept their decision, but not, however, yours.

 

I promise that I won't cry or spit my dummy across the room.

 

I look at things from a positive point of view and others tend to look negatively.

 

I'm very happy with your posts, just don't want you to appear as being silly.

 

 

[prick]

not sure what they're paying this expert but it's way to much

[CRUNCHER]

Marvelous! Before the vote the experts of "Project Fear" were telling us there would definitely be a recession after a "No" vote.  Now the vote is in we are down to 50%.  What will it be when we invoke Article 50?  25%? 10%?

 

All the experts (IMF, World Bank, Bank of England et al) said if we didn't join ERM there would be a disaster.  Well we joined and there was a disaster.  We had a recession  The expert said if we didn't join the Euro there would be a disaster. Well we didn't join and it was the Euro that had the disaster. They said if we didn't join Shengen there would be a disaster. Well we didn't join and look at the recent trouble for those who did join.

 

What do "experts" know?  Very little it seems.

[chiang mai]

For bill's sake let me try and put this issue into context:

 

GDP is measured pretty much precisely by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and this is done in a number of different ways, see the link below for an explanation of these. GDP figures for the period are released after the end of each period and are frequently revised subsequently as new historic data becomes available. In a normal growth economy the increase in GDP is measured in positive terms. e.g +0.3% or similar.  But when the economy is performing poorly and is contracting, that revision is expressed in negative terms and this is not usual. So the transition from positive to negative growth is a significant and unusual event but only the ONS can absolutely confirm that growth has turned negative, it would be impossible for a layman or even a seasoned economist to determine whether growth in the current period was say +0.1% or -0.1%, simply because those people don't have access to the data on which the final GDP numbers are compiled and issued. It's significant in news and economic terms however that an economy is turning or changing direction from growth to contraction hence the expression of 50/50 whether it is or isn't, is in itself very newsworthy and as precise as anyone other than the ONS can be.

 

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/explaining-economic-statistics/understanding-gdp-and-how-it-is-measured/sty-understanding-gdp.html

 

EDIT FOR CLARITY: a single quarter of negative growth is seen as a contraction, two or more are termed as a recession.

Edited August 3, 2016 by chiang mai

[dunroaming]

The government has committed to leave the EU.  To post warnings about a possible recession makes it much harder when they are at the negotiating table.  With the pound at the level it is at to predict a possible recession again hits confidence and makes the possibility of it regaining strength harder.  The remain boys have gone so there is no-one pushing the fear envelope any more.  There are always economic forecasts, some are right and some miss the mark.  Let's hope that this one is the latter.

 

It is very early days as to the fallout from brexit but one thing is for sure, the British government needs to present a positive image.  May has put in place brexit supporters in the key positions in the negotiations for leaving the EU.

[chiang mai]

7 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

The government has committed to leave the EU.  To post warnings about a possible recession makes it much harder when they are at the negotiating table.  With the pound at the level it is at to predict a possible recession again hits confidence and makes the possibility of it regaining strength harder.  The remain boys have gone so there is no-one pushing the fear envelope any more.  There are always economic forecasts, some are right and some miss the mark.  Let's hope that this one is the latter.

 

It is very early days as to the fallout from brexit but one thing is for sure, the British government needs to present a positive image.  May has put in place brexit supporters in the key positions in the negotiations for leaving the EU.

 

What would you suggest, that government stop reporting GDP and that all economists and journalists be gagged from discussing GDP and use of the "R" word banned!

[dunroaming]

My post was me trying to respond to those who seem to think that the government is trying to frighten people by claiming a possible recession when no such thing is likely.  Of course GDP and economic forecasts are important and should be openly available to everyone. How people interpret them is something else.  As I said it is early days to assess the fallout from brexit and I think the consequences will probably be quite severe.

 

Leaving the EU will not be an easy ride and if Merkel goes then I think we will struggle to get any momentous deals.  I assume that the brexit negotiators are trying to come up with a plan and the sooner that is made clear the sooner the markets will settle (one way or another).  There is so much uncertainty in Europe at the moment, these are turbulent times.

[gwynt]

2 hours ago, CRUNCHER said:

Marvelous! Before the vote the experts of "Project Fear" were telling us there would definitely be a recession after a "No" vote.  Now the vote is in we are down to 50%.  What will it be when we invoke Article 50?  25%? 10%?

 

All the experts (IMF, World Bank, Bank of England et al) said if we didn't join ERM there would be a disaster.  Well we joined and there was a disaster.  We had a recession  The expert said if we didn't join the Euro there would be a disaster. Well we didn't join and it was the Euro that had the disaster. They said if we didn't join Shengen there would be a disaster. Well we didn't join and look at the recent trouble for those who did join.

 

What do "experts" know?  Very little it seems.

Definition of expret ex=has been

Spurt drip under pressure. Spelling is off but the meaning comes through ?

[mesterm]

There's a 50/50 chance the Thai economy will pick up this year.

 

Trust me, I'm an expert.

[thairay]

Well in my considered opinion...perhaps it will  ,,, and then again perhaps it will not.. either way the opinions here will not affect anything ,anywhere. Thank you to all those here who have educated me here with their future telling, or stated their opinions, more complicated than mine, but just as useless..as i have said before,  i am a right thicko and believe all i am told, or perhaps i do not. It is about 50/50 really. Does this count as a news story???

[Srikcir]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

50/50 chance of falling into recession within the next 18 months

To investors who are risk-adversed, 50/50 isn't worth putting down hard cash into an economy. They want more assurance than just the "flip of a coin" that they will recover their investment plus a reasonable return on investment. A 50/50 risk would require a substantial return on the order of what might expect from a junk bond such as 30%+ return. I don't see such a return coming out of the UK economy for several years.

[mercman24]

yeah my financial advisor, advised me to transfer money over about 2 weeks ago as the Bank of England was going to make a statement, as to interest rates, so i did and no statement was forthcoming, resulting  in me losing money. so tomorrow another statement is due,  holding my breath  NOT !! experts, ?? i would rather toss a coin as someone said before, or stick a pin in a donkey

[chiang mai]

10 minutes ago, mercman24 said:

yeah my financial advisor, advised me to transfer money over about 2 weeks ago as the Bank of England was going to make a statement, as to interest rates, so i did and no statement was forthcoming, resulting  in me losing money. so tomorrow another statement is due,  holding my breath  NOT !! experts, ?? i would rather toss a coin as someone said before, or stick a pin in a donkey

 

If a UK based IFA actually advised you to make the transfer, he/she's not an FCA registered IFA because they are not allowed to make that sort of recommendation. Perhaps you should sue?

[Jip99]

7 hours ago, Skywalker69 said:

You're not out yet.  It will take at least two  years.

 

 

"WE" are not out yet....

[Jip99]

7 hours ago, billd766 said:

Yet another "leading economic forecaster" giving his "expert opinion" which, at the end of the day, is just the same as me tossing a coin and getting the right answer.

 

 

Absolutely right Bill, take your pick of these two experts:-

 

Goldman Sachs Says Britain Will Enter Recession After the Brexit Vote

...........................................................................................

 

Brexit will NOT trigger recession and UK economy will grow, says Moody's ratings boss

 

 

[Scott]

Inflammatory post and reply removed.  

[Steely Dan]

At least the scaremongering is showing signs of abating, pre-referendum it would have been a fifty percent chance of Armageddon.

[andy8017]

When these so called experts tell me THEY KNOW the difference between currency & money I might take some notice , so far all are working to putting us further in to debt,spend our way out of trouble, print more currency and kick the can down the road for someone else to sort out leading to a total world financial collapse

Coins.odt COINS AND CURRENCY.odt

[billd766]

7 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

I'm very happy with your posts, just don't want you to appear as being silly.

 

 

 

Thank you for your kind thought, but I am a big boy now and capable of doing things on my own without holding on to my Mummies hand.

[billd766]

54 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

Absolutely right Bill, take your pick of these two experts:-

 

Goldman Sachs Says Britain Will Enter Recession After the Brexit Vote

...........................................................................................

 

Brexit will NOT trigger recession and UK economy will grow, says Moody's ratings boss

 

 

 

But ChiangMai keeps telling me that I don't know much about finance (I agree with that) and that I should listen to the experts. Having listened to the experts such as those you quoted above leads me to believe that I may not know that much, but the experts don't seem to know much more either.

 

There is one thing that really confuses me though. If all these experts are so good at their jobs, why are they still working for companies like Goldman Sachs or Moody's and not lying on a sunny beach somewhere with the billions of money that their expertise has given them?

[dunroaming]

Nobody "knows" anything as it was before the referendum.  Everything is speculation.  What we do "know" is that the pound tumbled as the speculators predicted.  No surprise there as everyone expected it.  What happens next depends on many factors not the least being the negotiations on us leaving. Another factor will be whether May calls an election.  It was unlikely but with the polls (don't you just love the polls)showing the Conservatives some way ahead she just might call one.

 

This is going to be a long haul and who knows when the article will get triggered.  The BOE have indicated a rate cut but they have threatened that before and not delivered on it.  I think everyone is walking on egg-shells at the moment

[chiang mai]

7 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

But ChiangMai keeps telling me that I don't know much about finance (I agree with that) and that I should listen to the experts. Having listened to the experts such as those you quoted above leads me to believe that I may not know that much, but the experts don't seem to know much more either.

 

There is one thing that really confuses me though. If all these experts are so good at their jobs, why are they still working for companies like Goldman Sachs or Moody's and not lying on a sunny beach somewhere with the billions of money that their expertise has given them?

 

Expert or knowledgable sources will often disagree about complex subjects, that's why patients often get a second medical opinion regarding a condition and litigators frequently seek a second legal opinion! It's also a matter of who to read and listen to versus who to ignore, the phrase, "in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king", springs to mind.

 

As for why not on a beach: making money is not the be all end all for many people, many want to progress careers, want name recognition, enjoy the challenge or simply get a lot of satisfaction from the work they do. Your hypothesis that all really good financial analysts should be billionaires doesn't necessarily map through to the real world, if you notice, Buffet, Soros and others do very little sitting on beaches.

Edited August 3, 2016 by chiang mai