GBP/THB, Your Plan Now?

[Ricardo]

15 hours ago, uptheos said:

 

You don't know how to access The Daily Mail?????

Surely ye jest.

 

I do sometimes read my sister's copy, if back in Brexit-land, apparently everything they say in it is totally true & credible.

[orientalist]

Having lived and worked in LoS for a long time, I always intended to retire here and so most of my money is here. With my investments in Thailand unsuccessful and bank interest rates fairly low, I paid for 10 years of voluntary NI contributions to raise my UK state pension. So my retirement income is about 60% UK-based at present. The depreciating pound hurts, but not enough to pull up stakes. There's nothing for me in the UK. When I visit my mother, she only puts the hot water on for 15 minutes every 5 days because it costs so much! I sure as h*ll couldn't live like that!

[HauptmannUK]

What some people are missing is the economically illiterate policies that May was spouting at Conservative Conference. The government are talking about bringing in 'tax and spend' to boost investment and proposing some Labour-style interventions in industrial policy. A friend of mine (long time Tory and member of Institute of Directors) is apoplectic. He employs 30 people manfacturing high-tech metal components (for medical, aerospace etc) - most of suppliers and 80% of his customers are in EU. Reverting to WTO impex tarifs and a 1€=1£ would effectively destroy his business. He is not alone of course. I know him through the local EEF (Engineering Employers' Federation) and the mood is very grim. Most of these guys have been through the 2008 crash and some even supported Brexit but I don't think anyone expected to be where we are now. I think it was assumed we'd stay in the EEA - but policy now seems to be based entirely around immigration so any hope of that has gone out of the window.

The UK imports around 35% of its goods and services so a drop of around 20% for GBP against USD is going to lead to pretty dreadful inflation over the coming year. Not sure exports will helped much. All those British built Jags, Minis, Nissans etc contain an awful lot of EU-sourced components.

Sentiment around the UK economy is very poor, so I can't see the gbp going anywhere but further down.....

Edited October 8, 2016 by HauptmannUK

[dsfbrit]

I voted for Brexit and was very pleased when we won. I knew then that living in Thailand, I was going to be getting less for my pound over the next few years whilst the negotiations to leave were underway. The FX market does not like uncertainty. When Mr Carney needlessly reduced the bank rate and started printing a load more money, it was obvious that it was going to be a very very bumpy 2-3 years ride for FX rates indeed!

 

I am not only way down on the money I would be getting from the FX rate had the remain vote won, I am also getting hammered on the reduced interest rates on my savings as well.

 

I believe it will be bad for the next few years then it will get better as new trading conditions are established and the UK economy will go from strength to strength as the EU and the euro slowly disintegrates.

 

I agree with the poster above, the pound is more likely to go down further rather than rise and the expected rate rise by the Fed in the near future will also make matters worse.

 

I am surprised though that he says that ' ...but I don't think anyone expected to be where we are now'. I would have thought these guys would have expected to be right where we are now.

 

We are leaving the EU after all, it was never going to be an easy task and there will be a lot of negotiaions ending in failure once article 50 is invoked in March next year. I don't think anyone knows how this is going to end up. Interesting times indeed.

 

For me personally, Brexit will be worth the lost income. I have every sympathy though for those expats out there living on just their basic UK state pension. I have friends in this situation and I do not know what they can do about this at all to survive the next few years.

 

 

Edited October 9, 2016 by dsfbrit

[AlexRich]

5 hours ago, dsfbrit said:

I voted for Brexit and was very pleased when we won. I knew then that living in Thailand, I was going to be getting less for my pound over the next few years whilst the negotiations to leave were underway. The FX market does not like uncertainty. When Mr Carney needlessly reduced the bank rate and started printing a load more money, it was obvious that it was going to be a very very bumpy 2-3 years ride for FX rates indeed!

 

I am not only way down on the money I would be getting from the FX rate had the remain vote won, I am also getting hammered on the reduced interest rates on my savings as well.

 

I believe it will be bad for the next few years then it will get better as new trading conditions are established and the UK economy will go from strength to strength as the EU and the euro slowly disintegrates.

 

I agree with the poster above, the pound is more likely to go down further rather than rise and the expected rate rise by the Fed in the near future will also make matters worse.

 

I am surprised though that he says that ' ...but I don't think anyone expected to be where we are now'. I would have thought these guys would have expected to be right where we are now.

 

We are leaving the EU after all, it was never going to be an easy task and there will be a lot of negotiaions ending in failure once article 50 is invoked in March next year. I don't think anyone knows how this is going to end up. Interesting times indeed.

 

For me personally, Brexit will be worth the lost income. I have every sympathy though for those expats out there living on just their basic UK state pension. I have friends in this situation and I do not know what they can do about this at all to survive the next few years.

 

 

 

I notice that many people on here, particularly Brexit supporters, talk about the disintegration of the EU and the Euro as if it were somehow inevitable. Does it not occur to them that the EU can muddle through and make changes necessary to get through this period? As for the UK and so-called hard Brexit, the fall in the currency is an indication of what the financial market thinks of the U.K. Long term prospects under that scenario. It's not that everyone will be living in mud huts just that the growth potential of the U.K. will be a good deal lower than it would have been without Brexit. A price worth paying for less migration? Personally, I don't think so as we are a country with a demographic time bomb. We need new immigrants. It looks to me like the worst of both worlds. 

[uptheos]

On 10/8/2016 at 5:24 AM, cliveshep said:

Well, I don't know how to access it for a start so please tell me how when it is blocked by,  I assume, Thai Government censorship - for whatever reason.

 

If you are using Chrome use their app Browsec, works perfectly.

[icare999]

On 7 October 2016 at 1:06 PM, homeseeker said:

"in practical terms, mean 30-35 THB to the GBP for Joe Public "

 

(quote from above)

 

The collapse of the pound will adversely affect thousands of Brits in Thailand or proposing to come here.

Are those who voted for Brexit happy now?!

Yes very happy 

 

Edited October 9, 2016 by icare999

[SheungWan]

On 07/10/2016 at 7:06 AM, homeseeker said:

"in practical terms, mean 30-35 THB to the GBP for Joe Public "

 

(quote from above)

 

The collapse of the pound will adversely affect thousands of Brits in Thailand or proposing to come here.

Are those who voted for Brexit happy now?!

 

1 hour ago, icare999 said:

Yes very happy 

 

 

One just has to feel a little bit sorry for the type of expat who is being trashed by sterling while wallowing in their own loss wearing a silly happy hat.

[HauptmannUK]

15 hours ago, dsfbrit said:

 

 

I believe it will be bad for the next few years then it will get better as new trading conditions are established and the UK economy will go from strength to strength as the EU and the euro slowly disintegrates.

 

I agree with the poster above, the pound is more likely to go down further rather than rise and the expected rate rise by the Fed in the near future will also make matters worse.

 

I am surprised though that he says that ' ...but I don't think anyone expected to be where we are now'. I would have thought these guys would have expected to be right where we are now.

 

We are leaving the EU after all, it was never going to be an easy task and there will be a lot of negotiaions ending in failure once article 50 is invoked in March next year. I don't think anyone knows how this is going to end up. Interesting times indeed.

 

My comment about some of my fellow members of the EEF (Engineering Employers Federation) 'not expecting to be where we are now' is because the referendum was about leaving the EU, it was NOT about leaving the EEA (European Economic Area) - which is what is now being proposed. In fact although Farage proposed leaving the EEA the 'official' Leave campaign (Boris et al) specifically stated (more than once) that they didn't envisage leaving the EEA. I don't think the unelected May has any mandate for taking the UK out of the EEA and is playing with fire as regards the UK economy.

As regards the 'collapse' of the Euro - there is no sign of that yet - investors seem to have a lot more confidence in the Euro than GBP. I am sure that the Eurozone will adapt and survive - the EU may well look quite different in five years to now. I believe that Brexit will ultimately strengthen France and Germany's economies as financial and high-tech industries relocate out of the UK. If hard Brexit goes ahead I would say its a virtual certainty that many automotive and aerospace jobs will move within 2-3 years. This is what I am hearing and hence the joint letter last week from the EEF & CBI to the PM. A lot of serious people are seriously worried - this is not 'sabre-rattling' or fear-mongering. International business is hyper-competitive - putting the UK's economy at a disadvantage to our competitors is lunacy - a lot of these folks talking about 'free trade agreements' have no idea what one actually is (clue - it does not actually mean what it sounds like!).

The days when getting a trade deal was achieved by sending a few gunboats into a harbour are long gone. Its hard to imagine an isolated UK achieving the kind of deals that the EU has obtained - not without giving away a awful lot. 

It actually doesn't matter if things might improve in 5-10 years' time if you've already trashed major sectors of the economy.....

Edited October 9, 2016 by HauptmannUK

[JB300]

 
My comment about some of my fellow members of the EEF (Engineering Employers Federation) 'not expecting to be where we are now' is because the referendum was about leaving the EU, it was NOT about leaving the EEA (European Economic Area) - which is what is now being proposed. In fact although Farage proposed leaving the EEA the 'official' Leave campaign (Boris et al) specifically stated (more than once) that they didn't envisage leaving the EEA. I don't think the unelected May has any mandate for taking the UK out of the EEA and is playing with fire as regards the UK economy.
As regards the 'collapse' of the Euro - there is no sign of that yet - investors seem to have a lot more confidence in the Euro than GBP. I am sure that the Eurozone will adapt and survive - the EU may well look quite different in five years to now. I believe that Brexit will ultimately strengthen France and Germany's economies as financial and high-tech industries relocate out of the UK. If hard Brexit goes ahead I would say its a virtual certainty that many automotive and aerospace jobs will move within 2-3 years. This is what I am hearing and hence the joint letter last week from the EEF & CBI to the PM. A lot of serious people are seriously worried - this is not 'sabre-rattling' or fear-mongering. International business is hyper-competitive - putting the UK's economy at a disadvantage to our competitors is lunacy - a lot of these folks talking about 'free trade agreements' have no idea what one actually is (clue - it does not actually mean what it sounds like!).
The days when getting a trade deal was achieved by sending a few gunboats into a harbour are long gone. Its hard to imagine an isolated UK achieving the kind of deals that the EU has obtained - not without giving away a awful lot. 
It actually doesn't matter if things might improve in 5-10 years' time if you've already trashed major sectors of the economy.....

Agree with your sentiments but believe that it might actually be easier for the UK to negotiate trade agreements outside the EU as it will only be negotiating on behalf of itself & not 27 different countries all keen to protect their own "interests".

[sandyf]

On 10/8/2016 at 9:02 AM, sandyf said:

Some time ago I saw an 'expert prediction' that the pound would head to parity with the Euro and the USD, not looking so far fetched now.

The pound, which had already been struggling this week amid growing talk of a so-called hard Brexit, plunged 6.1 percent in Asian hours on Friday to a 31-year low of $1.1841. The slump has made the possibility of a historic $1 level more real: a Bloomberg forecasting model, based on implied volatility, shows about a 7 percent chance of it happening within a year, compared with 3.2 percent yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-07/pound-dollar-parity-is-now-a-possibility-for-currency-traders

[johnnybgood]

11 hours ago, SheungWan said:

 

 

One just has to feel a little bit sorry for the type of expat who is being trashed by sterling while wallowing in their own loss wearing a silly happy hat.

 

The poster made his choice and like others will live with it.  

 

What is happening is our elites (with vested interests), along with Brussels, are putting the petulant  boot in.

Of course all in tandem with the financial media who are playing the same old manipulated tune at their owners' orders.

 

Looks like the days of fraudsters and traitors being prosecuted are now long gone.  

[SheungWan]

5 hours ago, johnnybgood said:

 

The poster made his choice and like others will live with it.  

 

What is happening is our elites (with vested interests), along with Brussels, are putting the petulant  boot in.

Of course all in tandem with the financial media who are playing the same old manipulated tune at their owners' orders.

 

Looks like the days of fraudsters and traitors being prosecuted are now long gone.  

 

The Brexiteers veritably put the boot into themselves. And now trying to manipulate the story to point the blame elsewhere. Conspiracy theories working overtime.

[phetphet]

On 15/08/2016 at 7:11 AM, Ricardo said:

The dailymail-link is of course blocked, for those of us here in Thailand, by the MICT.

 

I wish they would get-over-it !

No problem reading if you use a VPN.

[icare999]

On 9 October 2016 at 10:57 PM, SheungWan said:

 

 

One just has to feel a little bit sorry for the type of expat who is being trashed by sterling while wallowing in their own loss wearing a silly happy hat.

errr what does that mean any expat who does not hedge against currency fluctuations is IMO silly. OF ocurse those living on fixed UK GBP pensions only must be hurting a lot but its been a long steady decline and i expect under 40 and then probably 35 in near future which will bring it back to pre 1997 Asain crisis levels. Any expat here who does not have significant savings should not be here and writing for GBP as well as Euro and rest against asian currencies has been on wall a long time. Sure its hit my family a lot but i consider it a price well worth paying for my kids and grandkids to be able to live in a free UK as well as a free Thailand whichever they prefer 

[AlexRich]

41 minutes ago, icare999 said:

errr what does that mean any expat who does not hedge against currency fluctuations is IMO silly. OF ocurse those living on fixed UK GBP pensions only must be hurting a lot but its been a long steady decline and i expect under 40 and then probably 35 in near future which will bring it back to pre 1997 Asain crisis levels. Any expat here who does not have significant savings should not be here and writing for GBP as well as Euro and rest against asian currencies has been on wall a long time. Sure its hit my family a lot but i consider it a price well worth paying for my kids and grandkids to be able to live in a free UK as well as a free Thailand whichever they prefer 

 

Ironic that the 'kids' prefer to be part of the European Union? They seem more amenable to integration and have less fear of foreigners ... unlike the older generation, many of whom will not have to live with the consequences. The vote was about anti-immigration ... and the oldies did it for themselves, not for their kids or grandkids.

 

[cliveshep]

The pound is bouncing around the 43.8 - 44.8 and has been for some time. The US election result actually pushed it up a half baht after Gina Davies pushed it down a half baht . Once the December Court appeal is heard we'll see what that silly cow in No. 10 will do but I suspect she'll go to Parliament anyway and ask for support for Article 50. I can't see many MP's silly enough to stand against the majority vote of the people, it would be political suicide so I suspect Article 50 will be declared and then they'll have to muck in and support it. Sabotage of negotiations by any MP after that will swiftly bring political retribution I'd think.

 

As for VPN's - many  thanks to those who pointed the way, I am now using Betternet, totally free, totally unlimited, it seems I'm in Switzerland now, but all blocked sites are now open to me inclusing the biggest lying rag of them all the Daily Wail.