GBP/THB, Your Plan Now?

[chiang mai]

5 minutes ago, manfredtillmann said:

http://www.afr.com/news/world/theresa-mays-brexit-deadline-puts-uk-at-a-disadvantage-20161003-gru7rm

no good news on the horizon, chaps...

 

Since Forex markets don't like uncertainty, more falls in the value of GBP seem likely - it's going to get tough for some expats I'm afraid.

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

Since Forex markets don't like uncertainty, more falls in the value of GBP seem likely - it's going to get tough for some expats I'm afraid.

 

May is rather naive if she thinks she can push the City around for the next 6 months.

[chiang mai]

9 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

May is rather naive if she thinks she can push the City around for the next 6 months.

 

You must remember that it's all for the greater good and money is not important, in the scale of things, who said that, hmm!

[Banana7]

On 10/4/2016 at 8:35 AM, chiang mai said:

It looks this morning as though GBP/THB may be going to drop below 44.00, SCB now quoting 44.03 - with USD at 1.285 I wonder where GBP/THB bottom is?

This afternoon TT rate is 43.795 at SCB but Krung Thai and Thanachart are 43.97.

Looks like it will find support at about 41.

 

[The Fat Controller]

There are going to be a lot of Brit expats diluting their beers with tears pretty soon....

[wordchild]

pound  fell 6% against the dollar  at the start of Asian trading this morning, briefly touching 1.20  now recovered to 1.238.  currently 43.2 against TB.

[wordchild]

now recovered a bit more to 1.241 only down 2 cents now. In any event a quite extraordinary move for a major currency!

[chiang mai]

8 minutes ago, wordchild said:

now recovered a bit more to 1.241 only down 2 cents now. In any event a quite extraordinary move for a major currency!

 

Indeed it does not look good, especially since there is no reason for it to meaningfully recover in the short to medium term, I'm beginning to think that HSBC's projection of 1.10 may be right after all. My guess is we'll soon see a rush of UK buying activity by overseas buyers and the emergence of some real heart breaking expat stories here in Thailand - the urge to cash in by some must be strong.

[cliveshep]

wordchild - can you tell me where you are getting your info from please? I'm looking at Yahoo finance for moving rates, currently 43.3392 baht to pound but as I am not used to any of this I may not have an accurate site. Iagree with the others, the vein seems to be that those in the UK Government like Carny and Hammond are talking down the pound much as they talked down brexit and it worries me to see it slipping.

 

I too transferred enough for 6 months, like a total pillock as it was running low I did not transfer more before brexit when it was 52 baht/£ and the following day it fell off the cliif. I compounded that by not transferring again thinking it would do better than 46 and so waited, when, falling to just over 43 it has not.

 

We are going to need to top up our 400,000 bank pot by January for the next visa extension - I don't know whether to wait or do it now before things get any worse.

 

Any ideas anyone?

[wordchild]

14 minutes ago, cliveshep said:

wordchild - can you tell me where you are getting your info from please? I'm looking at Yahoo finance for moving rates, currently 43.3392 baht to pound but as I am not used to any of this I may not have an accurate site. Iagree with the others, the vein seems to be that those in the UK Government like Carny and Hammond are talking down the pound much as they talked down brexit and it worries me to see it slipping.

 

I too transferred enough for 6 months, like a total pillock as it was running low I did not transfer more before brexit when it was 52 baht/£ and the following day it fell off the cliif. I compounded that by not transferring again thinking it would do better than 46 and so waited, when, falling to just over 43 it has not.

 

We are going to need to top up our 400,000 bank pot by January for the next visa extension - I don't know whether to wait or do it now before things get any worse.

 

Any ideas anyone?

bloomberg

Edited October 7, 2016 by wordchild

[chiang mai]

20 minutes ago, cliveshep said:

wordchild - can you tell me where you are getting your info from please? I'm looking at Yahoo finance for moving rates, currently 43.3392 baht to pound but as I am not used to any of this I may not have an accurate site. Iagree with the others, the vein seems to be that those in the UK Government like Carny and Hammond are talking down the pound much as they talked down brexit and it worries me to see it slipping.

 

I too transferred enough for 6 months, like a total pillock as it was running low I did not transfer more before brexit when it was 52 baht/£ and the following day it fell off the cliif. I compounded that by not transferring again thinking it would do better than 46 and so waited, when, falling to just over 43 it has not.

 

We are going to need to top up our 400,000 bank pot by January for the next visa extension - I don't know whether to wait or do it now before things get any worse.

 

Any ideas anyone?

 

This is not a case of Sterling being talked down by government, this is a case of the markets assessing the future of GBP and agreeing its value, Government is hardly in a position to put a positive spin on much of anything at this stage. FOREX markets hates uncertainty and the markets see uncertainty in spades when it comes to GBP, that's the nature of the two year Brexit negotiation period. Finally, Bloomberg and XE are good guides as to exchange rate but it's not until the Thai banks open that we'll see the value of the Pound against THB, best check the following in an hour or so to see: https://daytodaydata.net/

[cliveshep]

Thank you for that Chiang Mai. Yahho finance rates do seem to stay current, Bloomberg don't seem to. The Bank Exchange rate site is good information.

 

As for being talked down by government - accepted, what do I know anyway? But Carny dropped the interest rate which seemed unnecessary and the pound fell off a second cliff, then all the brexit talk when we invoke Article 50 news sent it down again. Mr Hammond's mouth doesn't help either! What else is likely to spook markets and rates?

 

Still don't know what opinions are on a rate move up or down by next January -- are we expecting further falls?

[chiang mai]

36 minutes ago, cliveshep said:

Thank you for that Chiang Mai. Yahho finance rates do seem to stay current, Bloomberg don't seem to. The Bank Exchange rate site is good information.

 

As for being talked down by government - accepted, what do I know anyway? But Carny dropped the interest rate which seemed unnecessary and the pound fell off a second cliff, then all the brexit talk when we invoke Article 50 news sent it down again. Mr Hammond's mouth doesn't help either! What else is likely to spook markets and rates?

 

Still don't know what opinions are on a rate move up or down by next January -- are we expecting further falls?

 

It's not so much a case of looking for what else might spook markets as it is momentum at this stage. There were reports of GBP trading at 1.13 overnight so that should give you an indication of direction, I'm fully expecting more falls, as said earlier HSBC is forecasting 1.10 but you must make your own decision on this.

 

Carney cut the bank rate because the BOT assessment was that the economy would dip and that hasn't happened, the Deputy Governor said this week that they got it wrong and sometimes that happens. And I'm not sure that Hammond's words played a meaningful role in what's happening currently, the only words that would have had a positive impact on the exchange rate is if the PM had said we're not going to leave the EU, clearly that was never on the cards and markets knew that.

 

https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/gbpusd/chart

 

BTW SCB now quoting GBP/THB at 42.50

Edited October 7, 2016 by chiang mai

[Chivas]

Airport Cartel (not that you should change there) are showing 39.79 just been tweeted

[JB300]

pound  fell 6% against the dollar  at the start of Asian trading this morning, briefly touching 1.20  now recovered to 1.238.  currently 43.2 against TB.

Flash crash 'triggered by algorithm' drags pound lower

The British pound has plunged in Asian trade, hitting a new 31-year low against the US dollar as traders speculate about a possible trigger.
It fell more than 6% at one point to $1.1841 before recovering to $1.23, still 1.5% down from late US levels.
Analysts say an algorithm reacting to a news report was the possible trigger for the sudden tumble. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37582150



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OJAS]

5 hours ago, cliveshep said:

Thank you for that Chiang Mai. Yahho finance rates do seem to stay current, Bloomberg don't seem to. The Bank Exchange rate site is good information.

 

As for being talked down by government - accepted, what do I know anyway? But Carny dropped the interest rate which seemed unnecessary and the pound fell off a second cliff, then all the brexit talk when we invoke Article 50 news sent it down again. Mr Hammond's mouth doesn't help either! What else is likely to spook markets and rates?

 

Still don't know what opinions are on a rate move up or down by next January -- are we expecting further falls?

 

Hollande’s big mouth was the cause of yesterday’s dramatic plunge according to Forexlive:

 

http://news.forexlive.com/!/gbp-plunge-hollande-gets-the-narrative-prize-20161006

 

Since this plunge flew in the face of positive UK economic data and no-one apparently saw it coming, I strongly suspect that we would have a lot to fear were the likes of Merkel were to blab off similarly over the coming weeks and months.

 

Not to mention the possible negative impacts of Hammond’s Autumn Statement next month and the actual triggering of Article 50 (instead of this just being talked about) as well, of course.

 

Incidentally, UBS are, according to Poundsterlinglive, forecasting the GBP to achieve parity with the EUR by the end of next year:

 

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5552-gbp-to-eur-parity-forecast-ubs-3454

 

Since this forecast is based on spot rates, this would, in practical terms, mean 30-35 THB to the GBP for Joe Public (all things remaining equal as far as the EUR and THB are concerned, of course).
 

Edited October 7, 2016 by OJAS

[homeseeker]

"in practical terms, mean 30-35 THB to the GBP for Joe Public "

 

(quote from above)

 

The collapse of the pound will adversely affect thousands of Brits in Thailand or proposing to come here.

Are those who voted for Brexit happy now?!

Edited October 7, 2016 by homeseeker

[AlexRich]

11 hours ago, homeseeker said:

"in practical terms, mean 30-35 THB to the GBP for Joe Public "

 

(quote from above)

 

The collapse of the pound will adversely affect thousands of Brits in Thailand or proposing to come here.

Are those who voted for Brexit happy now?!

 

They probably are 'happy' ... as pigs in shit! The adverse consequences for Sterling and the UK economy will not of course be their fault ... it will be the fault of people 'talking the country down', or other such nonsense!  

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

 

They probably are 'happy' ... as pigs in shit! The adverse consequences for Sterling and the UK economy will not of course be their fault ... it will be the fault of people 'talking the country down', or other such nonsense!  

 

Can you give us some examples of where government has talked the country down where that talk has had a negative affect of the Sterling exchange rate? I'm not trying to be cute here it's just that I don't see that it's happening that way, May declared a Hard Brexit, which was not an unreasonable announcement to make publicly but other than that......!

[AlexRich]

12 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

Can you give us some examples of where government has talked the country down where that talk has had a negative affect of the Sterling exchange rate? I'm not trying to be cute here it's just that I don't see that it's happening that way, May declared a Hard Brexit, which was not an unreasonable announcement to make publicly but other than that......!

 

I wasn't talking about the Government ... I was surmising about the cries we will hear from brexiteers as the 'brexit' project unravels and we begin to see real (adverse) economic impacts ... which will arise following the fall in Sterling, just one of the consequences, a fall in investment being an other, not to mention jobs being exported should companies choose to move operations to mainland Europe. My joke was that it will be all down to remainers talking the country down!

 

 

[uptheos]

On 8/15/2016 at 1:11 AM, Ricardo said:

The dailymail-link is of course blocked, for those of us here in Thailand, by the MICT.

 

I wish they would get-over-it !

 

You don't know how to access The Daily Mail?????

Surely ye jest.

[SheungWan]

17 hours ago, OJAS said:

 

Hollande’s big mouth was the cause of yesterday’s dramatic plunge according to Forexlive:

 

http://news.forexlive.com/!/gbp-plunge-hollande-gets-the-narrative-prize-20161006

 

Since this plunge flew in the face of positive UK economic data and no-one apparently saw it coming, I strongly suspect that we would have a lot to fear were the likes of Merkel were to blab off similarly over the coming weeks and months.

 

Not to mention the possible negative impacts of Hammond’s Autumn Statement next month and the actual triggering of Article 50 (instead of this just being talked about) as well, of course.

 

Incidentally, UBS are, according to Poundsterlinglive, forecasting the GBP to achieve parity with the EUR by the end of next year:

 

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5552-gbp-to-eur-parity-forecast-ubs-3454

 

Since this forecast is based on spot rates, this would, in practical terms, mean 30-35 THB to the GBP for Joe Public (all things remaining equal as far as the EUR and THB are concerned, of course).
 

 

I do not think you can assume that the sterling currency moves fly in the face of economic data. It has earlier been commented on that the FTSE counted in $ has not moved much at all. One observation to indicate the relationship between the two: this morning about half an hour before the FTSE opened futures were indicating a +0.6% opening. In that half an hour sterling recovered somewhat and FTSE futures showed a 0.3% opening. Not an absolute proof but a strong indication that the FTSE 100 price has been somewhat of a hedge against downward sterling. The subsequent assertion that sterling is just being pushed down by EU leaders saying stuff versus fundamentals just melts away. If there has been any public contributions having an adverse effect on sterling it will have been Theresa May's Conservative Party speech confirming a hard Brexit position. It is this which has made sterling increasingly vulnerable and market traders smell some blood in the water with the ongoing uncertainty the next few months. Expats on sterling incomes strap yourselves in. 10% is now a 12% loss.

[sandyf]

6 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

Can you give us some examples of where government has talked the country down where that talk has had a negative affect of the Sterling exchange rate? I'm not trying to be cute here it's just that I don't see that it's happening that way, May declared a Hard Brexit, which was not an unreasonable announcement to make publicly but other than that......!

Some time ago I saw an 'expert prediction' that the pound would head to parity with the Euro and the USD, not looking so far fetched now.

[Gary A]

It is my opinion that the pound will eventually and soon come back much stronger. It is also possible that in some way the EU is manipulating the currency to prevent other countries from jumping off their sinking ship. It may even be a good idea to invest in the currency while it is on bottom.

[DUS]

We will need a 20% increase in the value of the pound vs the Baht just to regain the lost territory since Brexit. Whilst I´d be more than happy about such a move up I very much doubt that we´ll see it anytime soon. I fear it will get much worse before it gets any better again.... 

[cliveshep]

8 hours ago, uptheos said:

 

You don't know how to access The Daily Mail?????

Surely ye jest.

Well, I don't know how to access it for a start so please tell me how when it is blocked by,  I assume, Thai Government censorship - for whatever reason.

[AlexRich]

53 minutes ago, cliveshep said:

Well, I don't know how to access it for a start so please tell me how when it is blocked by,  I assume, Thai Government censorship - for whatever reason.

 

One way to access it is to use the iPad app for the Daily Mail, this does not seem to be affected. The only problem is that you will need an iPad or other such tablet computer. I think you can also use a mobile app.

 

Failing that the other way is to download the Tor browser, which masks your IP address, so that you are accessing from the US or France, for example. Only problem with Tor is the download speed, but other than that you can access the Daily Mail web site in full.

 

 

 

[JB300]

Lots of free VPNs about & I'm somebody mentioned you can access it from their Facebook page but I don't use fcukbook so couldn't confirm.

[SheungWan]

4 hours ago, Gary A said:

It is my opinion that the pound will eventually and soon come back much stronger. It is also possible that in some way the EU is manipulating the currency to prevent other countries from jumping off their sinking ship. It may even be a good idea to invest in the currency while it is on bottom.

 

The same incantations were being uttered 3 months ago and a lot of good they were then and worth about the same now.

[SheungWan]

On 07/10/2016 at 1:13 AM, cliveshep said:

wordchild - can you tell me where you are getting your info from please? I'm looking at Yahoo finance for moving rates, currently 43.3392 baht to pound but as I am not used to any of this I may not have an accurate site. Iagree with the others, the vein seems to be that those in the UK Government like Carny and Hammond are talking down the pound much as they talked down brexit and it worries me to see it slipping.

 

I too transferred enough for 6 months, like a total pillock as it was running low I did not transfer more before brexit when it was 52 baht/£ and the following day it fell off the cliif. I compounded that by not transferring again thinking it would do better than 46 and so waited, when, falling to just over 43 it has not.

 

We are going to need to top up our 400,000 bank pot by January for the next visa extension - I don't know whether to wait or do it now before things get any worse.

 

Any ideas anyone?

 

We all beat ourselves up from time to time when we get caught out by currency movements. One of the advantages of hindsight . Your 400k question is a difficult call, but since we are near January I would take 42.5 now rather than risk further downside. PS Carney is not a member of the government.