Can Thailand Keep Counting On Tourism's 'Resilience'?

[webfact]

Can Thailand Keep Counting On Tourism's 'Resilience'?

Raini Hamdi,   CONTRIBUTOR

Forbes

 

BANGKOK: -- By now, Thailand is as used to its tourism industry rebounding quickly from a crisis as it is to military coups.

 

Days after the coordinated series of bombs hit Thai resorts including Hua Hin and Phuket on August 11 and 12, the Tourism Authority of Thailand issued estimates of 100,000 to 200,000 cancellations, mostly by Asians, and a loss of US$294 million in tourism revenues in the coming months.

 

That’s really small change for a destination that drew nearly 30 million visitors last year and is targeting 32 million arrivals and US$69 billion in tourism revenues this year.

 

The kingdom is even going ahead with a doubling of the Visa-On-Arrival fee to 2,000 baht (US$58) which the Thai Cabinet had approved in January. 

 

Full story: http://www.forbes.com/sites/hamdiraini/2016/08/22/can-thailand-keep-counting-on-tourisms-resilience/#53aae3692ab4

 

-- Forbes 2016-08-23

[Plutojames88]

Yes ....in the short term were there no more bombings.

Longer term no.

The human rights abuses are catching up with them slowly.
Propaganda less effective.
Political landscape and persecution of citizens for even having an opinion is gaining international focus.

Civil strife will unhinge them in the end.

But the likely hood of more bombings is better than 50% as the significance of the first was too pronounced for it to be a one off.
Also it was wide spread and highly successful
 So it's going to impact harder ...much harder if more occur.

For those reasons and others like a higher entry fee for Chinese numbers will decline.
The economy will suffer .
Tourism is also affected by the social media stories we see here .

Certainly communist Chinese aside and the Russians and Malaysians the numbers are in free fall now.
Western tourists are not fond of oppressive states .
Thailand once the gentle sweet nation to go relax has had too many horror exposure and now home to gulags and attitude adjustment camps and mad bombers and murderers.q

[alofthailand]

As long as Thai girls are available - tourism will prevail

 

[shirtless]

I think Thailand need to realize their market is being eroded , they do not help their cause with all the scams and  a military Government , bombings and shooting along with beatings tourism is dying and the over all market is being reduced by sluggish economies.

[NongKhaiKid]

Nothing should ever be taken for granted but unfortunately so often it is everywhere.

I don't see LoS ever believing,   far less admitting,    anything is wrong with tourism so will continue with their amazing claims of visitor arrivals and ridiculous ideas to attract more,   Pokemon Go being a prime example.

Away from the official nonsense and where the truth lies such as low occupancy those involved will respond as they usually do by jacking up the prices.

[dcnx]

Several countries have killed the Golden Goose. Thailand is not exempt. It may always be a haven for sex tourism, but for a real tourist destination, at the rate things are going, the future is bleak.

 

Even some of the Chinese are advising not to come here now, and that should be a real eye opener. If the Chinese refuse to come to your country, you screwed up big time.

 

That said, it's far from dead and not too late to make a full recovery before Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar steals everyone away. If one of them were to open a major international airline hub, Thailand would be given a run for her money.

Edited August 22, 2016 by dcnx

[Plutojames88]

3 year tourist visas in Cambodia needs matching or they will loose billions upon billions

[chiang mai]

The question that was asked was, can Thailand keep counting on tourism's resilience:

 

Yesterday we went out to lunch at an upmarket hotel in the mountains, with Chinese friends here on holiday, a number of points worth noting:

 

Firstly, the hotel only has twenty rooms/villa's and they cost from 5,000 to 19,000 per night, all were full, the manager tells us nineteen of the rooms occupied by Chinese. (a similar story at Anantara)

 

Over lunch, Chinese friends tell us that Thailand is so much cheaper for them than China - they middle class employed by US international company. Difficult to imagine, they say, any better alternative vacation destination, cost wise for them.

 

Are they put off by the political unrest? They both laughed, Chinese people are used to unsettled politics, at least here you don't put tanks on the streets and have the army shooting civilians.

 

What about corruption and safety, does that put you off? Again, both things are worse where we come from, those things are not a problem for most of us anyway.

 

The answer to the question is yes, it can.

 

 

 

[Thian]

I was in Nong Nooch lately and during the elephant show they ONLY spoke Thai/Chinese/Korean...

 

Why would they speak english if there are not westerners?

 

 

[ezzra]

If and when Thailand will want another million tourist like right now, all they have

to do is waive away visa fees and ease some regulations and those walking wallets

will just literally fly in..... that's how strong and popular Thailand is with the world's

would be tourists, as right now, no other country can offer what Thailand can....

[smedly]

47 minutes ago, shirtless said:

I think Thailand need to realize their market is being eroded , they do not help their cause with all the scams and  a military Government , bombings and shooting along with beatings tourism is dying and the over all market is being reduced by sluggish economies.

great post and pretty much sums it up, currency exchange is also a factor, people think only sterling was impacted after brexit - the euro has also been in decline its parity with sterling hasn't changed much from well before the vote

[55Jay]

If 10s of thousands of people brave drug cartel gun battles to get the ubiquitous photo with a "Zonkey" in Tijuana, then Thailand will be alright.

 

 

 

 

 

[digibum]

4 minutes ago, dcnx said:

Several countries have killed the Golden Goose. Thailand is not exempt. It may always be a haven for sex tourism, but for a real tourist destination, at the rate things are going, the future is bleak.

 

Even some of the Chinese are advising not to come here now, and that should be a real eye opener. If the Chinese refuse to come to your country, you screwed up big time.

 

Thailand's tourism industry is successful not because of TAT and the rest of the government but despite it.  Unfortunately eventually you hit a tipping point that turns people off and-or makes them look elsewhere.  Thailand is approaching that tipping point.  I know that's something that has been said a million times before but the numbers show it.  Farangs aren't coming anymore.  Thailand is hopping from uninformed country to uninformed country trying to find new suckers but they haven't figure out how quickly the information travels in the internet age and that you can only fleece a group of people for so long before they figure out the scam.  

 

Thailand has no interest in correcting any of the problems that are keeping farangs away.  They moved right on to the Chinese and Indians.  Now the Chinese and Indians are starting to get a real taste of Thailand and though the numbers are still quite strong, there's already talk of a slowdown.  

 

And will Thailand now, finally, fix anything?  No.  They'll go chase after the next group of people who seem to have a little cash in their pocket and haven't grown weary of Thailand yet.  

 

Sex tourism has held up Thailand for a long time but that ship is quickly sailing away.  Much like the recent doubling of visa on arrival fees, prices for punters are shooting up with no rhyme or reason.  The experience gets worse and the prices increase.  

 

It's been a slow, steady decline across the board.  Sort of like putting a frog in a pot of room temperature water and slowly raising the heat.  Many expats and frequent visitors gripe and moan but they cannot possibly view the situation with the same eyes that others see it.  

 

 

 

[Thian]

13 minutes ago, smedly said:

great post and pretty much sums it up, currency exchange is also a factor, people think only sterling was impacted after brexit - the euro has also been in decline its parity with sterling hasn't changed much from well before the vote

 

But Brits who want to exchange money for a holiday in Europe got a 1 on 1 rate i read last week...so expect it to go more down the drain against the euro.

[Thailand]

20 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

The question that was asked was, can Thailand keep counting on tourism's resilience:

 

Yesterday we went out to lunch at an upmarket hotel in the mountains, with Chinese friends here on holiday, a number of points worth noting:

 

Firstly, the hotel only has twenty rooms/villa's and they cost from 5,000 to 19,000 per night, all were full, the manager tells us nineteen of the rooms occupied by Chinese. (a similar story at Anantara)

 

Over lunch, Chinese friends tell us that Thailand is so much cheaper for them than China - they middle class employed by US international company. Difficult to imagine, they say, any better alternative vacation destination, cost wise for them.

 

Are they put off by the political unrest? They both laughed, Chinese people are used to unsettled politics, at least here you don't put tanks on the streets and have the army shooting civilians.

 

What about corruption and safety, does that put you off? Again, both things are worse where we come from, those things are not a problem for most of us anyway.

 

The answer to the question is yes, it can.

 

 

 

On the Samoeng road?

Not too many Chinese,or travelers in general,paying 5-19,000Baht per night. At the moment Thailand seems to be able to shake off the never ending string of happenings that could send tourists rushing for the exits, hopefully that stays the same but unlikely with the likes of the surrounding countries eyeing up the the problems in Thailand and starting to take advantage with more friendly incentives etc.

Tanks on the streets and military shooting at civilians, happened more than once here, and I don't think they would backwards in coming forwards to do it again if unrest and dissent increases.

 

For the time being, probably not much change in tourism, but not particularly optimistic in the current climate.

[digibum]

29 minutes ago, Plutojames88 said:

3 year tourist visas in Cambodia needs matching or they will loose billions upon billions

 

Highly doubt it.  There are so few people who take 3 year holidays that the math doesn't even make sense.  

 

Oh, you're talking about people who want to live in Thailand for 3 years and possibly work illegally?  Yeah, not going to happen.  

 

Those aren't tourists so why would one create a tourist visa for such people?  

 

Not that Thailand wouldn't benefit from creating some new classes of visas for people like digital nomads or others who derive income from a source other than working in Thailand.  

 

Also wouldn't hurt if they finally admitted that their educational system is beyond their own ability to fix due to the fact that their existing pool of teachers can't teach well enough to raise educational standards.  Then they could begin hiring masses of qualified and credentialed foreigners to come in and teach, making visa rules easier on these teachers, but that seems unlikely to ever happen.  

 

[yellowboat]

Thailand is giving its neighbors a chance to catch up.  Thailand has a cheap international airport, good food, relaxed atmosphere and pretty people.  It will always have some level of success.  Should Burma, Cambodia and Vietnam keeping forging ahead, they will take greater portions of the pie. 

 

 

 

[chiang mai]

6 minutes ago, Thailand said:

On the Samoeng road?

Not too many Chinese,or travelers in general,paying 5-19,000Baht per night. At the moment Thailand seems to be able to shake off the never ending string of happenings that could send tourists rushing for the exits, hopefully that stays the same but unlikely with the likes of the surrounding countries eyeing up the the problems in Thailand and starting to take advantage with more friendly incentives etc.

Tanks on the streets and military shooting at civilians, happened more than once here, and I don't think they would backwards in coming forwards to do it again if unrest and dissent increases.

 

For the time being, probably not much change in tourism, but not particularly optimistic in the current climate.

Yes, Panmivan.

 

I posted in a separate related thread recently that, from first hand experience, it's not unusual for Chinese guests staying at the Chedi and paying at least 9k a night to go into their boutique shop and blow 200k baht on stuff and ask it be shipped back to their home in China. It's now the Antanara and the room prices are a little lower but friends tell us the routine at the boutique shop is exactly the same. Not too many people paying that much money? On the contrary, there's lots of them.

[Ronuk]

38 minutes ago, Plutojames88 said:

3 year tourist visas in Cambodia needs matching or they will loose billions upon billions

There are enough undesirables and non spenders here now without creating another opening for more of them. Anybody that has money and wants to come to Thailand have always and will continue to come. Not a cat in Hell's chance Thailand will open herself up to be dumping ground for those that nobody else wants. In fact, it's making it more and more difficult for these people to stay long term on a weekly basis. Just you wait and see in 12 months from now how it turns out. Let Cambodia and it's 3 year visas have them.

[futsukayoi]

1 hour ago, alofthailand said:

As long as Thai girls are available - tourism will prevail

 

 

But I am here for the temples and the culture .......   no really

[Plutojames88]

Many westerners under 50 have hundreds of thousands USD in bank a three year visa on proof of funds makes sense ....( without the elite visa costs)

Maybe a 40,000 per year visa ?

[Thailand]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

Yes, Panmivan.

 

I posted in a separate related thread recently that, from first hand experience, it's not unusual for Chinese guests staying at the Chedi and paying at least 9k a night to go into their boutique shop and blow 200k baht on stuff and ask it be shipped back to their home in China. It's now the Antanara and the room prices are a little lower but friends tell us the routine at the boutique shop is exactly the same. Not too many people paying that much money? On the contrary, there's lots of them.

 

 

My circle of Chinese friends is obviviously different to yours,23 of them here last week for a particular event,quite a few of them could have paid 9000baht a night and easily spent 200K at a boutique but they don't find it necessary to do that.

The big spenders are a very different,and vastly smaller group 1-2% as an uneducated guess?to the millions of Chinese coming here at the moment that may just keep the tourism bost afloat, certainly hope so.

[Nasrullah]

1 hour ago, 55Jay said:

If 10s of thousands of people brave drug cartel gun battles to get the ubiquitous photo with a "Zonkey" in Tijuana, then Thailand will be alright.

 

 

 

 

 

Mmm......just tipping their toes over the border.But how further south do they venture?

[Nasrullah]

1 hour ago, Ronuk said:

There are enough undesirables and non spenders here now without creating another opening for more of them. Anybody that has money and wants to come to Thailand have always and will continue to come. Not a cat in Hell's chance Thailand will open herself up to be dumping ground for those that nobody else wants. In fact, it's making it more and more difficult for these people to stay long term on a weekly basis. Just you wait and see in 12 months from now how it turns out. Let Cambodia and it's 3 year visas have them.

And you really think the thais differentiate quality vs quantity?....

 

You sound new to the thai  physche!........baht is no1

[hawker9000]

There is the Thailand that's getting a cut of the hordes of Chinese with their tour packages originating back in China.  Then there's the Thailand that actually works in the tourist-facing sector in Thailand, in the restaurants and pubs and bars and hotels and shops and markets, driving taxis, doing laundry, etc., etc., etc.   The situation that's existed now for a few years is a steadily declining one for that Thailand, and doesn't promise to do much better anytime soon.  So there are two answers to questions like this - it depends on which Thailand you ask.  (I guess there's actually a third sector; the invested expat business-owning sector that has to talk-up the situation no matter what simply as a matter of business-boosting - pretty well represented here at TV.)

 

 

[Rancid]

This question has been asked many times over the years, often with predictions of doom, yet tourism keeps going along. As such I think a very difficult question to answer as many variables are in play that include the world economy and government actions.

 

At the end of the day expect most western expats just want to see no real surprises, suspect as long as the government doesn't change the current paradigm much then things for us will continue to roll along. Thing is though westerners are becoming a smaller slice of the market, so who knows whether things might indeed change.

 

One thing could be problematic is a more vocal discord between EU/US and Thailand. Thailand has been a US ally for many years, we have all seen what can happen to countries that drift too far away, reciprocal actions against westerners could occur.

 

Thailand has a similar dilemma to Australia, Oz is allied with the US but trade heavily with China, we don't want problems with China but we are being pushed to join anti-Chinese actions. I think the Thais would also like to walk the middle road but there are pressures from the two opposing sides.

[LPCustom69]

Those that can't get laid by attractive women in their home country will come, no matter what is going on.

 

As long as it is easy for criminals to slide under the radar, criminals will continue to come.

 

Legitimate tourists are already finding locations with clean beaches, and water.

[williamgeorgeallen]

3 hours ago, alofthailand said:

As long as Thai girls are available - tourism will prevail

 

i have noticed the number of new girls coming through is declining and i wonder if this is due to them going online looking for 'boyfriends' see even the older ones just sitting in their bars looking through their phones. 

[digibum]

2 minutes ago, Nasrullah said:

And you really think the thais differentiate quality vs quantity?....

 

You sound new to the thai  physche!........baht is no1

 

I agree that the trend is quantity over quality (regardless of what TAT hopes will happen) but Thailand has always been fond of short-term visitors.  They've never been too keen on farangs coming to Thailand and needing to work illegally to finance their extended vacations.  

 

They've spent several decades constantly tweaking the immigration laws to make staying in Thailand long-term difficult so there's no reason to believe that this attitude would change quickly or easily.  

 

Let alone their other laws like prohibiting foreigners from owning land or owning more than 49% of a business.   Laws designed to make it unappealing for foreigners to set down roots in Thailand.  Sure, they tolerate the condo buyers, the retirees (they have a shorter shelf-life and tend to dump money into Thailand - and they check your bank account to make sure of that), and the odd farang who finds success despite the odds being stacked against him, etc but they sure as heck don't seem inclined to make Thailand inviting to just anybody who can afford a plane ticket to Bangkok.   

 

Believe me, if you have money and want to stay in Thailand for 3 years, it's very doable.  If you don't have money, well, it's difficult because Thailand doesn't want you.  There's no real reason for a 3 year *tourist* visa.  

 

The 3 year tourist is a unicorn invented by farangs who don't have the means to figure out a better way to stay in Thailand and work illegally.  Nobody goes somewhere for 3 years on vacation.  

 

There's always this claim that Thailand is losing great sums of money by not allowing people to stay for a year or two years or three years on a single visa but little proof that real actual tourists are even interested in such a product.  

 

Sure, there might be a need for a long-term visa for digital nomads and people who have significant sources of income coming in from outside of Thailand but not for tourists.  

 

[Scotwight]

17 minutes ago, LPCustom69 said:

Those that can't get laid by attractive women in their home country will come, no matter what is going on.

 

As long as it is easy for criminals to slide under the radar, criminals will continue to come.

 

Legitimate tourists are already finding locations with clean beaches, and water.

You just don't have a clue.

 

International arrivals to Thailand from 2000 to 2015 show a significant rise from 2000 onwards. If we take the year 2000 as an easy benchmark with 10 million visitors at the time, we reached 26.55 million visitors in 2013, an increase of 165 %. Arrivals decreased by 6.54% during 2014, in a year that saw massive political demonstrations, followed by the military taking over the government. A recovery occurred in the final quarter of that year, and 2015 saw a boom in arrivals, almost up to 30 million.

 

Arrivals continued to increase in the first and second quarters of 2016. 

Anyway, if the trend continues, we may see a number of about 32-35 million tourists arriving in 2016.

 

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism.asp

Edited August 23, 2016 by Scotwight