Population - how does the government calculate this?

[robsamui]

I've been wondering about this or a while now.

How does the government calculate the number of people in Thailand - anybody know?

AFAIK there is no census system; everything is based on house books (tabien baan).

Is this correct?

That leads me to ask - how does a house qualify for a tabien baan? (What about people who rent their property?)

 

In what way are new births registered - I've never heard mention of 'birth certificates'.

 

Do the issue of ID cards figure into this somehow?

 

And how does the system take into account (for example) the millions of people who have moved away from the family home in the NE of Thailand and are permanently living and working in other provinces?

I'm puzzled by all of this.
It seems to be based on guesswork and estimates, with no centralized database of records and everything depending upon each of the 76 regions keeping their own tally.

 

Anyone enlighten me?
 

[Pib]

They do a census every 10 years.  Full info/details here at the National Statistical Office of Thailand:  http://popcensus.nso.go.th/en/

 

Quote

The National Statistical Office carries out a population and housing census every 10 years, according to the United Nations’ recommendation. Almost 230 countries around the world conduct a population census. The 2010 census in Thailand was the eleventh population census and the fifth housing census of Thailand, and marked the 100th Anniversary of the Thailand Population Census Program. The objective of the census was to collect basic information on the number of population according to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as housing characteristics of everyone who was residing in Thailand, on the census date (1st September 2010), without regard to household registration. The major findings are as follows:

 

[robsamui]

OK - thanks for this.

 

But how do they do the census?

 

In so many other instances they just guess at the numbers - income tax for instance. The govt seems to have no idea who is working, or where. 

 

The extract above states that the census avoids using house registration  -  do they do it by sending hundreds of people walking about actually counting heads, as in other nations?

 

Or do they use the info from ID cards?

 

Anybody actually know?

[Pib]

Just click the Information link on the webpage given earlier and then look under the various links under the Information heading such as Methodology of Data Collection ....snapshot below.

 

 

 

 

 

[robsamui]

Many thanks for this.

[blackcab]

In Thailand it's very simple as they have a civil registration system (blue book).

 

The computerised record can list every person ever registered who has not been recorded as dead.

 

The system is pretty comprehensive and nowadays starts from a Thai persons birth certificate. That certificate has a Thai ID number on it that remains the same for life. Every Thai person has an ID number, even members of the Royal family.

 

The only people without ID numbers are those (older) people whose parents never registered them and who don't feel the need for a Thai ID card. There are also some stateless people, etc. And some Thais born abroad and not registered in a blue book.

 

Overall, however the system is very comprehensive.

[JimHuaHin]

In addition to the above posts; population estimates are arrived at through: adding the number of live births each year, subtrating the number of deaths of Thai nationals each year, adding the number of new permanent migrants each year (minimal) and subtracting the number of Thai nationals who permanently emigrate overseas each year (often not accurate)

 

Of course, these caculations depend of accurate recording of births, deaths and international movements of Thai nationals.

[williamgeorgeallen]

https://www.google.co.th/search?q=thailand+population&oq=thailand+population&aqs=chrome.0.0l6.8278j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

quite an interesting look at thai population which has doubled in the last 50 years even with minimal immigration. looks to be slowing now.

[4evermaat]

https://www.google.co.th/search?q=thailand+population&oq=thailand+population&aqs=chrome.0.0l6.8278j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

quite an interesting look at thai population which has doubled in the last 50 years even with minimal immigration. looks to be slowing now.

Lots of 'non resident immigrants' and tourists though

[madusa]

On 16/09/2016 at 9:34 AM, blackcab said:

In Thailand it's very simple as they have a civil registration system (blue book).

 

The computerised record can list every person ever registered who has not been recorded as dead.

 

The system is pretty comprehensive and nowadays starts from a Thai persons birth certificate. That certificate has a Thai ID number on it that remains the same for life. Every Thai person has an ID number, even members of the Royal family.

 

The only people without ID numbers are those (older) people whose parents never registered them and who don't feel the need for a Thai ID card. There are also some stateless people, etc. And some Thais born abroad and not registered in a blue book.

 

Overall, however the system is very comprehensive.

You are right on the spot. All Thais will register their newborn babies otherwise how are the children going to be register in kindergarten school or to take up employment later in life? All Thais know that if the police cannot get their ID numbers on their computer they will be lock up and slowly they will talk to you while you enjoy your stay in prison.

I believe some countries like Japan are super efficient when they do their census.

[micmichd]

59 minutes ago, CaptHaddock said:

1.  Modern state pension systems began when Bismarck created one in Germany along with national health insurance and accident insurance in the 1880's.  It's true that the US has lagged behind. 

 

2.  The Social Security system was however created in 1935.  Private pensions did become more widespread in the US in the 50's.

 

3.  Your demographic prediction of a coming crisis in Social Security is frequently heard from innumerate folks like yourself.   Apparently you have never stopped to ask yourself why there was no such crisis when the ratio of workers to retirees fell from 5 to 1 in the 60's to 3 to 1 in the 90's.  In fact, the standard of living of both SS recipients and workers increased significantly during that 30 year period.  How do you suppose that was possible?   You have assumed that workers in the immediate post-war economy produced the same amount of output as workers today.   But that's obviously ridiculous.  In the 50's GM had 400,000 workers and produced fewer cars per year than today with 40,000.  Productivity gains affect not only manufacturing workers, but in fact are the source of the rising standard of living across the whole economy.  And that includes supporting retirees.  Today's workers make more than their predecessors in real terms even after paying more in payroll taxes.  That's the effect of productivity gains. 

 

I hope that you will be able to fund your retirement with your savings, but if you do manage it without SS you will be among a small minority of workers.

 

[elgordo38]

The government has a list of "feel happy" numbers and another one that reads "they will never believe these" and another one reads "possibly believable". Read up on Goldilocks and the 3 little bears that will give you a better definition. 

[micmichd]

3 hours ago, williamgeorgeallen said:

https://www.google.co.th/search?q=thailand+population&oq=thailand+population&aqs=chrome.0.0l6.8278j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

quite an interesting look at thai population which has doubled in the last 50 years even with minimal immigration. looks to be slowing now.

Yes, certainly, Thailand has an overall stable population now. Would be interesting to find out more about differential demographics and prognosis for the future. 

[williamgeorgeallen]

14 minutes ago, micmichd said:

Yes, certainly, Thailand has an overall stable population now. Would be interesting to find out more about differential demographics and prognosis for the future. 

this graph is quite impressive

https://www.google.co.th/search?sourceid=chrome-psyapi2&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8&q=thailand birth rate&oq=thailand birth rate&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.4980j0j1

birth rate has fallen from 6 to 1.4 in the last 60 years. need about 2.2 kids per female to have a stable population. wonder of thailand will open the boarders to refugees as the population starts to fall. that would be something else.

[micmichd]

1 hour ago, williamgeorgeallen said:

this graph is quite impressive

https://www.google.co.th/search?sourceid=chrome-psyapi2&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8&q=thailand birth rate&oq=thailand birth rate&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.4980j0j1

birth rate has fallen from 6 to 1.4 in the last 60 years. need about 2.2 kids per female to have a stable population. wonder of thailand will open the boarders to refugees as the population starts to fall. that would be something else.

Overall birth rate declines, life expectancy rises, looks like Thailand faces the challenges of Europe (and Northern America)

As far as I can see, a new middle class is emerging in Thailand, agriculture is being mechanised, urbanisation is coming, and with it urban development. GNP is slightly growing, prices rise. Again: like in Europe and the West.  

Just labour and housing seem to be cheaper, but both are protected by Thai law. And that's the big difference between the West and Thailand I guess. 

 

[Pib]

2 hours ago, elgordo38 said:

The government has a list of "feel happy" numbers and another one that reads "they will never believe these" and another one reads "possibly believable". Read up on Goldilocks and the 3 little bears that will give you a better definition. 

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) uses this method for its tourism stats.

[AsianExport]

I guess that they meet a fortune teller as they do for most important things here ?

 

 

[KMartinHandyman]

They take the square root of the number of people who have to what for the next train at 17:00 on Friday and multiply that by pi then add a few 00's and multiple by 1 million.

[rickudon]

Not all births are registered, We have one person we know who has never bothered to get birth certificates for his children - because he would have to spend his time doing it. And we are part of an urban area, I wonder how many children in villages out in the sticks get registered,

[Grubster]

Paint a stripe on your car and you will get a ticket as it is not registered with a stripe, You would be very surprised what they know about the people living here. I'm sure some children don't get registered but I bet that will be straightened out when they go to school.