Pound drops to lowest level since 1985

[ubonjoe]

A off topic nonsensical post and a reply to it has been removed.

[sandyf]

On 10/10/2016 at 6:48 PM, NanLaew said:

Oh, not that one again.

 

"When the survey’s findings are projected on to last week’s vote, they would cut the Leave share by 1.2 million, almost wiping out the majority that gave Friday's shock result."

 

Close(r) but (still) no coconut!

It is a growing realisation. I went to Belfast a couple of weeks ago and a friend of mine that voted to leave now says he made a mistake. He now sees the only solution as a reunited Ireland, a view that appears to growing in strength.

 

[Grouse]

4 minutes ago, sandyf said:

It is a growing realisation. I went to Belfast a couple of weeks ago and a friend of mine that voted to leave now says he made a mistake. He now sees the only solution as a reunited Ireland, a view that appears to growing in strength.

 

 

Yes, difficult to see any other practical solution. I don't see a hard border between Northern Ireland and Eire working. 

[rockingrobin]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

 

The key take away from Krugman's article is that UK wages will be lower, the Pound weaker and the economy smaller. I don't regard that as doom speak and I don't regard it as necessarily bad, the UK economy was over inflated previously and the Pound was overvalued. BUT if Mr and Mrs Average UK are on board with seeing their standard of living decrease, potentially to recover later, maybe, I think that's a good and realistic approach to the UK's economy - I'll bet however that Mr and Mrs Average UK didn't see that coming and certainly didn't plan for it, especially given that consumer price inflation is going to hit UK plc real soon (nothing doom speak in that, just fact, exports down, imports up, currency way down means consumer price inflation) and that means increased interest rates at some point, another load on Mr and Mrs Average they were hoping to avoid. Hmmm, did I really say this was all not a bad thing! Well for me sat here in Thailand spending already banked Baht it's not a problem but I bet the UK population wouldn't agree.

CM the Bank  of England has stated it will look through inflationary pressure and my take is this is saying it will not use interest rates as  a means of combating.

The merits of sterling being overvalued / undervalued is being approached from a simplistic  view that everything exists in almost perfect equilibrium.There are many different aspects that drive currencies, however it is the economy being reflected.

The following may shed some light

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3457/currency/problems-of-a-strong-currency/

 

[sandyf]

8 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Yes, difficult to see any other practical solution. I don't see a hard border between Northern Ireland and Eire working. 

Quite, it wouldn't work, both north and south would be against it. From what I could gather, those in the north that wish to stay with the UK are now in the minority, which has helped to keep the peace.

This possibility of a breakup of the UK following the EU exit is going to do little for the long term future of the pound.

[chiang mai]

23 minutes ago, rockingrobin said:

CM the Bank  of England has stated it will look through inflationary pressure and my take is this is saying it will not use interest rates as  a means of combating.

The merits of sterling being overvalued / undervalued is being approached from a simplistic  view that everything exists in almost perfect equilibrium.There are many different aspects that drive currencies, however it is the economy being reflected.

The following may shed some light

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3457/currency/problems-of-a-strong-currency/

 

 

Duh, do you have one that teaches people how to count to ten also!!!

[CaptHaddock]

53 minutes ago, sandyf said:

It is a growing realisation. I went to Belfast a couple of weeks ago and a friend of mine that voted to leave now says he made a mistake. He now sees the only solution as a reunited Ireland, a view that appears to growing in strength.

 

 

That would be truly be a shocker.  Brexit achieves what the IRA could not.

[i claudius]

well this morning the pound seems to be fighting back , not a lot , but up is better than down, not that it really matters to me yet as i brought over my years supply when it was higher .

[baboon]

5 minutes ago, i claudius said:

well this morning the pound seems to be fighting back , not a lot , but up is better than down, not that it really matters to me yet as i brought over my years supply when it was higher .

Good to hear, but is that against the Baht or the Dollar?

[i claudius]

Good to hear, but is that against the Baht or the Dollar?

Both

Sent from my ASUS_T00J using Tapatalk

[baboon]

3 minutes ago, i claudius said:

Both

Sent from my ASUS_T00J using Tapatalk
 

OK. Thanks.

[rockingrobin]

35 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Quite, it wouldn't work, both north and south would be against it. From what I could gather, those in the north that wish to stay with the UK are now in the minority, which has helped to keep the peace.

This possibility of a breakup of the UK following the EU exit is going to do little for the long term future of the pound.

Under the terms of the good friday agreement a majority from both the Republic of Ireland and NI is required.At present I dont see the support in the Republic, especially when considering the EU funds available to maintain the peace process.

Although Ireland is important, an intriguing prospect lies ahead in Scotland, although they probably wont prevent the great repeal bill, which cuts across devolved matters, there is nothing preventing Scotland Parliament enacting a bill to continue EU laws

[Laughing Gravy]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Unfortunately until things change you must accept the current democratic process, and stop complaining about it being enforced.

Referendums are subject to subliminal manipulation and come close to horse doping, and this could be the best way to run the country, really.

 

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Unfortunately until things change you must accept the current democratic process, and stop complaining about it being enforced.

Referendums are subject to subliminal manipulation and come close to horse doping, and this could be the best way to run the country, really.

That is a very good point about Scotland. Somehow I can't see Mrs Sturgeon doing that without getting all the financial benefits.

Having friends on both sides of the Border of Ireland, I just don't feel that the unification would be allowed. I know in principle many would like to see it but practically and the rest of the UK wouldn't let it happen. If it did then even more division in Europe would start with Spain and Catalonia being one of the first having problems.

Edited October 12, 2016 by Laughing Gravy

[somo]

14 hours ago, happy Joe said:

And if we stopped the childish quarrels, eh?

 

To me the future of the Pound lies in the hands of May Government:

 

  1 Hard, Total Refusal of EU rules and complete break. The pound will fall sharply again with a risk of collapse. The result of the referendum is respected.

 

  2 Soft, UK leaves Europe but remains in the market by accepting EU rules. The pound quickly regains its pre Brexit level. But voters are cheated.

 

I think the new decline is only linked to strong statements of T. May indicating "Brexit is Brexit" suggesting a hard exit.

 

But that is not certain.

 

There will certainly be a compromise and both sides are currently talking tough which is perfectly natural considering there is over two years to go. The markets are twitchy and latch onto any speech for their direction. In a couple of months May might be saying the opposite which again would be perfectly natural for a politician. Depressing the pound might have been her sole intention all along, nobody knows but the Gov. of the B of E and his predecessor are not upset about it. The US would love to be able to do the same but can't.

The UK has a much stronger hand to play than most other members of the EU would have if they decided to leave so the issue of contagion is overstated. It is in everyone's interest to maintain free trade and so it will be maintained but cleverly disguised. The UK will 'seemingly' get some more control over immigration whilst still allowing free entry to EU members because it needs the immigrants who on balance contribute more to society than the average citizen.

It is now just a question for the politicians on both sides as to how they dress up the non changes. Their task is to deceive their voters into thinking they have won the negotiations so they get reelected which is their only goal. They are quite good at doing deception. 

Meanwhile currency fluctuations are something us small people just have to live with but predicting their direction seems to me to be impossible.

 

 

[webfact]

Pound completes worst four-day performance since Brexit vote

Phillip Inman

 

Bank of England official said he expected further fall driven by referendum result and UK’s trade deficit with rest of world

 

The pound endured another day of pressure from investors on Tuesday after continued jitters on the foreign exchange markets pushed it down more than two cents to $1.21. 

 

Sterling recorded its worst four-day performance since the Brexit vote as a Bank of England official said he expected the pound to fall further in the coming weeks, driven by the referendum result and the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world.

 

The exchange rate with the US dollar stood at $1.30 last week when Theresa May opened the Conservative party conference and appeared to put regaining control of immigration above staying inside the EU’s single market free trade area. 

 

Full story: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/11/pound-completes-worst-four-day-performance-since-brexit-vote

 

-- The Guardian 2016-10-12

[chiang mai]

Oh deary me!

 

The head line for this article is, "Pound sterling now seen as an emerging market currency by traders".

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pound-sterling-behaves-like-emerging-market-currency-traders-mexican-peso-a7356231.html

[Fithman]

£ currently  1% up on yesterdays low. 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/11678/intraday.stm

[NanLaew]

19 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

Hot off the press

 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37615251

 

Tell me again about those strict rules, regulations and laws.

Indeed. I guess the 'computer algorithm' excuse cannot be used in this instance.

[Grouse]

47 minutes ago, webfact said:

Pound completes worst four-day performance since Brexit vote

Phillip Inman

 

Bank of England official said he expected further fall driven by referendum result and UK’s trade deficit with rest of world

 

The pound endured another day of pressure from investors on Tuesday after continued jitters on the foreign exchange markets pushed it down more than two cents to $1.21. 

 

Sterling recorded its worst four-day performance since the Brexit vote as a Bank of England official said he expected the pound to fall further in the coming weeks, driven by the referendum result and the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world.

 

The exchange rate with the US dollar stood at $1.30 last week when Theresa May opened the Conservative party conference and appeared to put regaining control of immigration above staying inside the EU’s single market free trade area. 

 

Full story: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/11/pound-completes-worst-four-day-performance-since-brexit-vote

 

-- The Guardian 2016-10-12

 

Yes, this is all correct IMHO.

 

Mrs May putting the Con Party conference before the country is very telling. I note that some Tory leavers are now expressing concern.

 

There is, or at least was, an entirely reasonable way forward. Is TM just stupid or is she cynical?

 

You see, my view was that on BALANCE it was better to remain and FORCE change from within.

 

Clearly UK total immigration rate was too high. Discounting my anti Muslim views, adjustments could have been negotiated (limiting annual total, total per country, job offers in advance) and living wage enforced.

 

EU waste is appalling. This could have been negotiated including the balmy Strasbourg / Brussels arrangement and FORCING proper audits.

 

I don't think the budget contribution unreasonable

 

Fishing quotas seem illogical. Clearly we need sensible regulations to preserve stocks. We've seen what happens when fishermen are left to manage the situation

 

EU employment and environmental regs were also good for the average man.

 

I do think there was scope to increase democracy within the EU but it is no where near as bad as many think.

 

But overall, and on BALANCE, I still feel the EU is a benign influence.

 

Throwing everything away to get some benefit that will not materialise is just foolish. 

 

It's not over yet by a long way. How much is a litre of 98 octane? How much by year end do you think?

 

BTW, Gravy, I thought your Yorkshireman piece was spot on!?

[cumgranosalum]

On 10/4/2016 at 4:30 PM, Chicog said:

 

OK for me, I get paid in $$$

 

A somewhat self-centred comment, don't you think?

funnily enough a lot of Brexiteers seemed to have the same perspective - I notice now a rise in second-hand sales on various classified sites for Pattaya, Phuket etc as Brexiteers appear to be reaping their rewards - a quick ticket back to UK before their savings are all gone?

 

let's hope it isn't accompanied by a corresponding increase in balcony jumps.

Edited October 12, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[NanLaew]

18 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Then don't get ar$ey when other posters respond in kind. None of us (including Yorkshiremen) get a free pass with behaviour here.

Grouse v Khun Han

 

40-love already. This is going to be ugly (again)

[Grouse]

23 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Oh deary me!

 

The head line for this article is, "Pound sterling now seen as an emerging market currency by traders".

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pound-sterling-behaves-like-emerging-market-currency-traders-mexican-peso-a7356231.html

 

I hadn't looked at gilts; this is seriously scary ?

[Grouse]

19 minutes ago, Fithman said:

£ currently  1% up on yesterdays low. 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/11678/intraday.stm

 

Do you know what "trend" means?

 

Are you recommending Sterling as a Strong Buy?

[Fithman]

Just now, Grouse said:

 

Do you know what "trend" means?

 

Are you recommending Sterling as a Strong Buy?

 

Your reply is unhelpful. 

 

YES  I do know what a trend is and I merely made an observation not a buy recommendation. 

 

Go troll elsewhere. You have been entered on the ignore list

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, i claudius said:

well this morning the pound seems to be fighting back , not a lot , but up is better than down, not that it really matters to me yet as i brought over my years supply when it was higher .

 

So you want a strong pound?

 

Or do you want a weak pound?

 

Confused?

[Grouse]

1 minute ago, Fithman said:

 

Your reply is unhelpful. 

 

YES  I do know what a trend is and I merely made an observation not a buy recommendation. 

 

Go troll elsewhere. You have been entered on the ignore list

 

Thank you!

[NanLaew]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

Quite, it wouldn't work, both north and south would be against it. From what I could gather, those in the north that wish to stay with the UK are now in the minority, which has helped to keep the peace.

This possibility of a breakup of the UK following the EU exit is going to do little for the long term future of the pound.

Hopefully, the same sanity will prevail north of Hadrian's and that infernal wee woman and her band of sycophantic acolytes will implode... or just bugger off to some cave and watch spiders. The problem is that the Tories are as perpetually in the Scottish wilderness as Labour are south of the border. That leaves it up to a newly empowered Scottish Labour to get a grip but not at all sure if that features anywhere in Corbyn's playbook at all. Wouldn't be the first time that some Scots-born leadership has prevailed and dominated south of the border.... and still buggered it up.

 

Anyway, British secessionism is a sideshow but I agree that it can and will interfere with how quickly and efficiently the United Kingdom responds to the undeniable challenges that leaving the EU presents. 

[RuamRudy]

7 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Hopefully, the same sanity will prevail north of Hadrian's and that infernal wee woman and her band of sycophantic acolytes will implode... or just bugger off to some cave and watch spiders. The problem is that the Tories are as perpetually in the Scottish wilderness as Labour are south of the border. That leaves it up to a newly empowered Scottish Labour to get a grip but not at all sure if that features anywhere in Corbyn's playbook at all. Wouldn't be the first time that some Scots-born leadership has prevailed and dominated south of the border.... and still buggered it up.

 

Anyway, British secessionism is a sideshow but I agree that it can and will interfere with how quickly and efficiently the United Kingdom responds to the undeniable challenges that leaving the EU presents. 

 

Do you follow Scottish politics closely? The idea of a newly empowered Scottish Labour is risible at the moment. If Dugdale sees out the year as leader it will be a surprise to many. And the Tories, under Ruth Davidson, are capitalising on that dissaray; they are far from languishing on the fringes. They may have the ideological barriers to overcome among many left leaning voters but they are working hard to capture the unionist middle.

 

But all that is academic. When that 'infernal wee woman and her band of sycophantic acolytes' make up near half the population and rising, the chances of them withering away are slim. Independance (a much less loaded term than secessionism, don't you agree?) is looking increasingly likely, and the more people like you refer to nearly half the country as sycophantic acolytes, the better. Please keep up the good work / insults.

 

[Khun Han]

45 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Grouse v Khun Han

 

40-love already. This is going to be ugly (again)

 

Like I said, you based all this on getting the meaning of of one of my posts ar$e-about-t1t .

[chiang mai]

10 year gilts are up 50 basis points since August, they're saying we need an interest rate hike to 1% - that'll be a good trick, I sense a re-emerging market for Anderson shelters!