May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

"UK has legal competence." Really" How does the concept of  "legal competence" usurp EU jurisdiction over its financial regulations?

I think you are confusing different rules with different aspects of the banking trade. There are also various levels of trading within clearing houses, with level one being low risk/regulation and so on. As far as I can say, and I'm no expert, the clearing houses are part of the wholesale banking sector, and this is not the same as the retail sector, where indeed the UK would lose its passporting rights.  Would love someone more in the know to give a definitive explanation, but yes I'd say this is a cobbled story.

 

There is also the practical side: there simply is nowhere else with the 'heft' to cope with the enormous flow of trade that London houses, or do it as cheaply.  Also, relocating an entire sector is not like changing your internet bank.  It would take years to complete with disruption and extra cost.

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

I can see Ireland being hit hard. But what other states would those be? The poorer nations.  Of course, if the UK agrees to the free movement of people, as Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and some other nation have done, then most likely there wouldn't be much harm done to any of those nations. But that would vitiate the point of Brexit for most Brexit supporters. And anything short of that wouldn't be much help to those nations. 

Britain adds a very big flow of trade.  Yes I can see Ireland suffering big time.  Do you think Brexit will go ahead?  I am having doubts because it does not seem do-able without causing unacceptable financial risk. 

[mommysboy]

58 minutes ago, jpinx said:

There has not been any attempt to describe the situation post-brexit if UK car distributors want to sell Mercedes cars.  What will the invoice include?  What import duty?  What VAT?  Everyone is huffing and puffing about the rights and wrongs of something that no-one has actually defined.  Selling post-brexit UK's produce to EU countries will incur what duty and taxes to the buyers in France, Greece, etc?  If the WTO rules apply - what is their baseline for tariffs in that situation?

You're right about the uncertainty and it extends across all aspects, and is real.   Uncertainty is surely a reason not to do something, not a reason why we should give the plan the benefit of the doubt! 

[mommysboy]

39 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

As long as what they do is consistent with  WTO rules

What people don't understand is that leaving the single market, and customs union puts the UK in an unenviable and weak position. Essentially, any trading arrangment we have with an outside country has to be renegotiated.  It  will be an admin. nightmare and go on for ages.  We'll have everyone, Bongo Bongo Land included, dictating the terms.

[ilostmypassword]

17 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I think you are confusing different rules with different aspects of the banking trade. There are also various levels of trading within clearing houses, with level one being low risk/regulation and so on. As far as I can say, and I'm no expert, the clearing houses are part of the wholesale banking sector, and this is not the same as the retail sector, where indeed the UK would lose its passporting rights.  Would love someone more in the know to give a definitive explanation, but yes I'd say this is a cobbled story.

 

There is also the practical side: there simply is nowhere else with the 'heft' to cope with the enormous flow of trade that London houses, or do it as cheaply.  Also, relocating an entire sector is not like changing your internet bank.  It would take years to complete with disruption and extra cost.

The people who work for these houses are very highly paid. If the EU compels them to move, I think they'll move. There's too much money at stake for them and the owners of these companies, mostly Americans,  not to. What does it take physically to move these highly compensated professionals and some very high powered computers to Ireland? Or Germany? Or the Netherlands? Or possibly even France?

[ilostmypassword]

9 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

What people don't understand is that leaving the single market, and customs union puts the UK in an unenviable and weak position. Essentially, any trading arrangment we have with an outside country has to be renegotiated.  It  will be an admin. nightmare and go on for ages.  We'll have everyone, Bongo Bongo Land included, dictating the terms.

Not really. The default position will be WTO rules. At least for the countries that subscribe to those rules. Which means most of them.

[ilostmypassword]

18 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Britain adds a very big flow of trade.  Yes I can see Ireland suffering big time.  Do you think Brexit will go ahead?  I am having doubts because it does not seem do-able without causing unacceptable financial risk. 

Who knows? Maybe as the negotiations proceed and UK citizens see what they stand to lose, it might generate enough opposition to scotch Brexit

[nasanews]

Stupid leaders run stupid societies.

regards

[jpinx]

42 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

You're right about the uncertainty and it extends across all aspects, and is real.   Uncertainty is surely a reason not to do something, not a reason why we should give the plan the benefit of the doubt! 

The uncertainty will be reduced when someone takes a bit of time to read the WTO protocols for inter-trading members.  Meantime it's just another facet of  the well-known "Project Fear" that continues in spite of the referendum result.

 

29 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

The people who work for these houses are very highly paid. If the EU compels them to move, I think they'll move. There's too much money at stake for them and the owners of these companies, mostly Americans,  not to. What does it take physically to move these highly compensated professionals and some very high powered computers to Ireland? Or Germany? Or the Netherlands? Or possibly even France?

There's little ount that some shuffling will happen, but there's no chance of the "houses" givin anything away at this stage.  Every announcement will be pounced on and traded on for their mutual gain.  We are not even live spectators in the play - we only see the results.

 

Edited June 23, 2017 by jpinx

[jpinx]

 

27 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Who knows? Maybe as the negotiations proceed and UK citizens see what they stand to lose, it might generate enough opposition to scotch Brexit

Maybe as negotiations are developed we will see that the WTO terms are not so bad and there will be little difference.  No-one has produced facts on this, and no-one has been able to make a simple, if somewhat broad-brush comparison.  All we get is hot air about trade, and fear about immigration.  Why is the government not giving clear direction to the country and allowing us all to "get back to work"?  Oh - I forgot -- a short while ago the same government was extolling the virtues of remaining, went for the referendum and lost, and then went again for a "confidence booster" and lost their overall majority as well.  "Project Fear" is perhaps a reflection of the Fear the UK people have of their own governments double-dealing incompetence. 

Edited June 23, 2017 by jpinx

[mommysboy]

37 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

The people who work for these houses are very highly paid. If the EU compels them to move, I think they'll move. There's too much money at stake for them and the owners of these companies, mostly Americans,  not to. What does it take physically to move these highly compensated professionals and some very high powered computers to Ireland? Or Germany? Or the Netherlands? Or possibly even France?

I am no expert, but feel you have been wholly misinformed.  It would be a logistical nightmare. UK is essentially the EU's merchant banker.

 

Likewise, I think you are mistaken about the difficulty of untangling and rejoining trading arrangments.

[mommysboy]

27 minutes ago, jpinx said:

The uncertainty will be reduced when someone takes a bit of time to read the WTO protocols for inter-trading members.  Meantime it's just another facet of  the well-known "Project Fear" that continues in spite of the referendum result.

 

There's little ount that some shuffling will happen, but there's no chance of the "houses" givin anything away at this stage.  Every announcement will be pounced on and traded on for their mutual gain.  We are not even live spectators in the play - we only see the results.

 

The thing about uncertainty is that it is corrosive and breeds yet more.  I think the damage is already done,ie, the horse has already bolted.  And I also think blame for this lies squarely with the Government.

[jpinx]

6 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

The thing about uncertainty is that it is corrosive and breeds yet more.  I think the damage is already done,ie, the horse has already bolted.  And I also think blame for this lies squarely with the Government.

Agreed -- and the GE would not have changed the seat of the blame no-matter who won since there's only a handful of MP's of any/all colours who are truly committed to brexit.

Edited June 23, 2017 by jpinx

[Naam]

3 hours ago, Khun Han said:

The UK is, I think, Germany's second biggest export market for cars? Oh well, they can make up any defecit by selling to bongobongo land, surely?

18% of German cars were exported to UK (810,000) in 2016. and my forecast is that the same percentage or perhaps more will be exported to UK for many years to come because i expect an amicable agreement. if i'm wrong the number will drop but Brits will be still buying German cars. even Thais buy and pay fancy money.

[Naam]

3 hours ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

So what are you saying? That the EU doesn't care about any loss of trade with UK? That it's just nothing this brexit to them? That one of the biggest contributers is leaving is really no big deal  and the UK hardly spends bu##er all on stuff from the EU? Really?   

don't put words in my mouth. what i'm saying is that German cars will be exported to UK whether Brexit or not. how many less in case of Brexit? i don't know. but what i'm also saying is that there won't be any Brexit as envisioned in the wet dreams and/or hallucinations of hardcore belligerent Brexiteers.

[Grouse]

What is the point of Brexit?

 

What a useless idea....

[mommysboy]

19 minutes ago, Naam said:

don't put words in my mouth. what i'm saying is that German cars will be exported to UK whether Brexit or not. how many less in case of Brexit? i don't know. but what i'm also saying is that there won't be any Brexit as envisioned in the wet dreams and/or hallucinations of hardcore belligerent Brexiteers.

And if I may tag my own thoughts- I'd say it is 50/50 whether there will be any Brexit at all.  I say this because I think it looks like check mate in a political sense.

[mommysboy]

5 hours ago, jpinx said:

 

Maybe as negotiations are developed we will see that the WTO terms are not so bad and there will be little difference.  No-one has produced facts on this, and no-one has been able to make a simple, if somewhat broad-brush comparison.  All we get is hot air about trade, and fear about immigration.  Why is the government not giving clear direction to the country and allowing us all to "get back to work"?  Oh - I forgot -- a short while ago the same government was extolling the virtues of remaining, went for the referendum and lost, and then went again for a "confidence booster" and lost their overall majority as well.  "Project Fear" is perhaps a reflection of the Fear the UK people have of their own governments double-dealing incompetence. 

 

Perhaps nobody really knows, hence the fear and uncertainty is perfectly justified.  So, if one accepts that, I suppose we are doing little more than tossing a coin.  That's not a good basis for leaving imo, indeed sheer madness really. 

 

There is a broad assumption among Brexiteers that leaving the EU will magic away our trade imbalance, but we will still need to import as much before- the imbalance will just be spread out among more countries; it could even worsen.  And on the other side, leaving is assumed to be tantamount to a glorious recovery in exports.  For the life of me I can't see why in both cases.

 

Isn't it the case that WTO rules have set tariffs?  ...whereas the smart countries are trying to form trade agreements that reduce these.  We'll be well behind the curve, which is a bit silly since we're currently at the front.  It'll take years to disentangle from the EU and Trade agreements won't happen soon, and there are political obstructions too.  Argentina is highly unlikely to welcome us to any club unless the Falklands is up for grabs, and I'm sure numerous nations will seek to exploit our plight.

Edited June 23, 2017 by mommysboy

[jpinx]

41 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

Perhaps nobody really knows, hence the fear and uncertainty is perfectly justified.  So, if one accepts that, I suppose we are doing little more than tossing a coin.  That's not a good basis for leaving imo, indeed sheer madness really. 

 

There is a broad assumption among Brexiteers that leaving the EU will magic away our trade imbalance, but we will still need to import as much before- the imbalance will just be spread out among more countries; it could even worsen.  And on the other side, leaving is assumed to be tantamount to a glorious recovery in exports.  For the life of me I can't see why in both cases.

 

Isn't it the case that WTO rules have set tariffs?  ...whereas the smart countries are trying to form trade agreements that reduce these.  We'll be well behind the curve, which is a bit silly since we're currently at the front.  It'll take years to disentangle from the EU and Trade agreements won't happen soon, and there are political obstructions too.  Argentina is highly unlikely to welcome us to any club unless the Falklands is up for grabs, and I'm sure numerous nations will seek to exploit our plight.

 

Tossing a coin was the last GE - and look how that went.  As Naam rightly points out Brexit won't stop trade, but the increase/decrease in the taxes and tariffs is unknown until someone fathoms out the baseline of WTO rules.  The actual numerical value of - for exanple - Germany's exports of Mercedes to UK will probably not change much, so there's a good opportunity for speculators to make hay in the sunshine of the changing profit sources.

 

During the times after the referendum there were occasions when various countries expressed strong support for new trade agreements with a post-brexit UK.  Australia, India, Canada, etc were hot to trot, but TM has been too busy with tory internal politics to lead the UK forward in that direction.  They seem to think it's more important to stay in power of a bankrupt country than to encourage the UK to prosper on their merits.

 

The legislation exist, and aways has, for immigration to be controlled, but successive governments have failed to implement it.   Now UK finds itself kow-towing to rules on the timing of negotiations on new trade agreements, imposed by the same over-arching legislature that UK is leaving anyway.  It all stinks to high heaven of a remainers party in power by the skin of it's teeth. 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2017 by jpinx

[pitrevie]

8 hours ago, Flustered said:

Watching Daniel Hannan on the Daily Politics show was great.

 

He destroyed every argument put forward by the other guests (pro EU) and also Jo Coburn. He just left them sitting there not knowing what to say. All the rubbish put forward by the remainers about an increase in hate crime....shot down in flames and disproved.

 

What an articulate well researched man he is. What a pity he is not an MP rather than an MEP.

Yeah I saw him on Fox News talking about the NHS, Hannity thought he should be prime minister and you know you are in trouble when you get that sort of recommendation.

[Khun Han]

7 hours ago, Naam said:

18% of German cars were exported to UK (810,000) in 2016. and my forecast is that the same percentage or perhaps more will be exported to UK for many years to come because i expect an amicable agreement. if i'm wrong the number will drop but Brits will be still buying German cars. even Thais buy and pay fancy money.

 

Whilst I agree with you that a deal will be done, comparing the Thai luxury car market to the UK one is about as apples and oranges as it gets. And my point still stands that the UK market is a huge one for German exporters, which is the main reason why a deal will be done.

[Khun Han]

8 hours ago, mommysboy said:

What people don't understand is that leaving the single market, and customs union puts the UK in an unenviable and weak position. Essentially, any trading arrangment we have with an outside country has to be renegotiated.  It  will be an admin. nightmare and go on for ages.  We'll have everyone, Bongo Bongo Land included, dictating the terms.

 

How the terms of trade are dictated depends on what each proposed trade deal is. If a particular country is keen on exporting large quantities of it's products to us as a part of the trade deal, they wont be dictating the terms.I just don't get why remainers try to put the most negative spin possible on everything brexit-related. Well, I do, actually: they're doing their bit for Project Fear.

[pitrevie]

3 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

How the terms of trade are dictated depends on what each proposed trade deal is. If a particular country is keen on exporting large quantities of it's products to us as a part of the trade deal, they wont be dictating the terms.I just don't get why remainers try to put the most negative spin possible on everything brexit-related. Well, I do, actually: they're doing their bit for Project Fear.

To think it was only a short time ago you were regaling us with all sorts of conspiracy theories following May's dismal performance in the general election.

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

Perhaps nobody really knows, hence the fear and uncertainty is perfectly justified.  So, if one accepts that, I suppose we are doing little more than tossing a coin.  That's not a good basis for leaving imo, indeed sheer madness really. 

 

There is a broad assumption among Brexiteers that leaving the EU will magic away our trade imbalance, but we will still need to import as much before- the imbalance will just be spread out among more countries; it could even worsen.  And on the other side, leaving is assumed to be tantamount to a glorious recovery in exports.  For the life of me I can't see why in both cases.

 

Isn't it the case that WTO rules have set tariffs?  ...whereas the smart countries are trying to form trade agreements that reduce these.  We'll be well behind the curve, which is a bit silly since we're currently at the front.  It'll take years to disentangle from the EU and Trade agreements won't happen soon, and there are political obstructions too.  Argentina is highly unlikely to welcome us to any club unless the Falklands is up for grabs, and I'm sure numerous nations will seek to exploit our plight.

 

Which club would we wish to join that Argentina is a member of. And don't make me laugh by referring to the WTO (as if Argentina will stop us trading through that organisation ). Just more remainer scaremongering.

[Laughing Gravy]

18 hours ago, AlexRich said:

Same old claptrap from you. Switzerland and Norway have strong ties with the EU, and Iceland is a member of EFTA, and is recovering from bankruptcy ... but not because of the EU. If Australia was off the coast of Europe it would be in the EU

You sound more like Junker by the minute and seem to have a crystal ball on Australia. Strong Ties is not the same as being dominated and told what to do on every level. If its the same old claptrap then I am happy. The truth often hurts.

 

We were fine before the EU and we will be fine after. You make the EU sound like a super race and if you don't belong, you are inferior. That was also done before, also run by the Germans and look what happened!

Edited June 24, 2017 by Laughing Gravy
finishng my point

[SheungWan]

14 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

You sound more like Junker by the minute and seem to have a crystal ball on Australia. Strong Ties is not the same as being dominated and told what to do on every level. If its the same old claptrap then I am happy. The truth often hurts.

Truth, Brexit style: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-vote-leave-wipes-nhs-350m-claim-and-rest-of-its-website-after-eu-referendum-a7105546.html

 

[Laughing Gravy]

1 minute ago, SheungWan said:

Truth, Brexit style: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-vote-leave-wipes-nhs-350m-claim-and-rest-of-its-website-after-eu-referendum-a7105546.html

 

I would have opened the link up but seeing its the independent I couldn't handle any more laughter for the day thanks. I am surprised reamainers are still clinging onto the 35o million claim for the NHS. Must still be desperate.

[Laughing Gravy]

7 hours ago, Grouse said:

What is the point of Brexit?

 

What a useless idea....

Maybe to those who lack vision, can't lead for themselves, are ashamed of their country, Europhiles and must like "taking up the Gary', dished out by the EU.

 

To many, many people it is a wonderful idea and long overdue

[Laughing Gravy]

7 hours ago, Naam said:

i don't know. but what i'm also saying is that there won't be any Brexit as envisioned in the wet dreams and/or hallucinations of hardcore belligerent Brexiteers.

Why is it the German and other EU members are so desperate for the UK to remain. The UK people really haven't bought into the whole EU concept. The UK people do not want to be European and have their own identity. So as we are clearly outsiders and we want out, why are the EU making it so difficult for us to leave. After all aren't we hated, disliked for not 'doing as we are told' and pulling the EU line. We are divided by sea and scorned as 'not European. I would have thought the EU would be glad to see the back of us. We never wanted the Euro and never will. So why exactly doesn't the EU want the UK to leave them. mmm not difficult is it!

[Laughing Gravy]

10 hours ago, Grouse said:

No, that's what my friends and collegues are saying. We are so aggravating, we outweigh our usefulness. Honestly. That's what I hear from professional people in other EU countries....

If that is the case and I don't believe it, why don't they just say 'get stuffed UK we will go elsewhere. In fact it seems the opposite as the threats of huge so called divorce settlements etc.