May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[mommysboy]

50 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Which club would we wish to join that Argentina is a member of. And don't make me laugh by referring to the WTO (as if Argentina will stop us trading through that organisation ). Just more remainer scaremongering.

 

Any future process that relies on the unaminous agreement of existing members is liable to delay, or frustration. 

 

Imagine if Brexit was a business proposal that you had to evaluate.  What would you honestly say?  Surely one would honestly say no because there is not the slightest evidence it will do any good. There simply is no evidence that UK will be better off.  Yet the downside risks are very real.  I honestly don't care if we leave or not as a principle, and acknowledge that a referendum was won.  But you have to ask yourself- is it do-able?  And at what cost?  Is there a cogent, verifiable plan?  Lastly you look at the general way the business has been conducted so far.  Can you imagine any CEO saying, "Yeah, you've done your homework well.  This is a cast iron winner."  Be honest!

 

Your term scaremongering now includes a wide range of respected people and institutions- former PM's and ministers, senior figures in the Tory party itself, existing MPs, the Lords, and 2 countries in the union.

 

Anyway, better rap up as you must have a busy day of reckless gambling ahead what with it being a Saturday.  Do you use pin and blindfold method?

Edited June 24, 2017 by mommysboy

[Naam]

51 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Why is it the German and other EU members are so desperate for the UK to remain. The UK people really haven't bought into the whole EU concept. The UK people do not want to be European and have their own identity. So as we are clearly outsiders and we want out, why are the EU making it so difficult for us to leave. After all aren't we hated, disliked for not 'doing as we are told' and pulling the EU line. We are divided by sea and scorned as 'not European. I would have thought the EU would be glad to see the back of us. We never wanted the Euro and never will. So why exactly doesn't the EU want the UK to leave them. mmm not difficult is it!

i don't want to argue the brushstroke and colours of an old master's painting with a blind man.

[sandyf]

20 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

The 'bottom line' is that uk governments support cheap labour from poorer countries, as this increases business profits.

So you agree that they fail to provide resources to the NHS in line with government policy.

[SheungWan]

58 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Why is it the German and other EU members are so desperate for the UK to remain. The UK people really haven't bought into the whole EU concept. The UK people do not want to be European and have their own identity. So as we are clearly outsiders and we want out, why are the EU making it so difficult for us to leave. After all aren't we hated, disliked for not 'doing as we are told' and pulling the EU line. We are divided by sea and scorned as 'not European. I would have thought the EU would be glad to see the back of us. We never wanted the Euro and never will. So why exactly doesn't the EU want the UK to leave them. mmm not difficult is it!

Londoners would certainly like all the miserable, grumpy old provincials to clear off with their incessant sour whingeing.

[rockingrobin]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Whilst I agree with you that a deal will be done, comparing the Thai luxury car market to the UK one is about as apples and oranges as it gets. And my point still stands that the UK market is a huge one for German exporters, which is the main reason why a deal will be done.

The economies of scale put the UK at a disadvantage

[rockingrobin]

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

Which club would we wish to join that Argentina is a member of. And don't make me laugh by referring to the WTO (as if Argentina will stop us trading through that organisation ). Just more remainer scaremongering.

The issue is not about the WTO, 

The UK is going to adopt the existing schedueles (affiliated to EU), but have not mentioned how they intend to deal with the quota's. Is the UKs intention to take a percentage of the existing EU quota, seems the easiest route, or negotiate seperate ones.

If they take part of the existing EU quotas , the third party country may not be happy with this arrangement and feel that they are being disadvantaged.

[SheungWan]

Investingdotcom reporting on Govt negotiations with DUP, that DUP demanding 2 billion for infrastructure and healthcare, not answering the phone to May for 36 hours and even having 'secret' talks with Labour and LIbDems to pressure the Tories. And here's the kicker: ' Chances are she (May) will cave to the DUP just as she is beginning to cave to the European Union on Brexit talks'.

[sandyf]

11 hours ago, jpinx said:

There has not been any attempt to describe the situation post-brexit if UK car distributors want to sell Mercedes cars.  What will the invoice include?  What import duty?  What VAT?  Everyone is huffing and puffing about the rights and wrongs of something that no-one has actually defined.  Selling post-brexit UK's produce to EU countries will incur what duty and taxes to the buyers in France, Greece, etc?  If the WTO rules apply - what is their baseline for tariffs in that situation?

It is a bit difficult to describe something that has no current definition. The UK does not have a current WTO tariff profile, it trades under the EU tariff profile, tariffs are all listed on the WTO website. The simplest solution would be for the UK to adopt the EU profile but that will be subject to approval by the WTO membership. It was never going to be easy getting that approval but it becomes increasingly difficult every time TM opens her mouth.

Everyone seems to think that trading under WTO would be the worst case scenario, but its not.

If there is no EU trade agreement and no WTO profile has been established then the UK would have to trade completely independent. Every trade would would be determined by parties involved, no price control and no rules or regulations, total free for all with the most powerful getting the better part of the deal.

TM hung her hat on getting an EU trade agreement but she is walking the line, the UK cannot have a WTO tariff profile as a member of the EU and the WTO is not renowned for getting things done quickly.

[Grouse]

Brexit should be shelved

 

Nobody has been able to clearly explain what the benefits are

 

Instead we should focus on getting our technical training up to German standards

 

Build a proper stock of social housing

 

Get a decent health service

 

Nationalise the utilities

 

Sort out our dilapidated infrastructure

 

Reconsider Brexit 10 years from

now when we are in better shape and not in the laughable state we're in now

[sandyf]

15 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Poor deduction.  The bulk of clearing business will stay in UK.  UK has legal competence.  The only viable competitor to UK is the USA, which is also not in the EU.  Its a cobbled story.

Not quite. This issue has already been to court and the court ruled that Euro clearing could remain in the UK as it was an EU member state and there is every likelihood that decision will be overturned.

There is a precedent, the US has taken control of the dollar so there is little to stop the EU taking full control of the Euro.

[Naam]

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

Laughing Gravy said:

Why is it the German and other EU members are so desperate for the UK to remain.

desperate? is that stuff you ingest legal? 

[sandyf]

13 hours ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

Overall yes, you are probably right. But that is on an EU v UK overall basis. Individual countries in the EU will be affected far more than some others. Some of these countries that will be mostly affected negatively from brexit are the biggest contributers.  Do you think these big players are not going to have influence on junker and co in Brussels as the negotiations progress? Especially  if they're going to take a bigger hit than the smaller members who are still not contributing? 

I don't think so. 

 

The problem here is that everyone is hung up on historical data. Post brexit it will all change. Once the new customs regulations kick in many current exporters on both sides of the fence will not want the hassle of the customs paperwork.

Companies on the EU mainland are more likely to concentrate on the hassle free 500 billion customers on their doorstep than bother with the UK. Funny how the talk of EU trade always involves German cars, people in the UK that want to buy German cars will always do so, they can afford it. Not quite the same for customers in places like Lidl and Aldi.

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

Investingdotcom reporting on Govt negotiations with DUP, that DUP demanding 2 billion for infrastructure and healthcare, not answering the phone to May for 36 hours and even having 'secret' talks with Labour and LIbDems to pressure the Tories. And here's the kicker: ' Chances are she (May) will cave to the DUP just as she is beginning to cave to the European Union on Brexit talks'.

"' Chances are she (May) will cave to the DUP"

 

She may have to win first.

 

A Northern Irish politician who campaigned for the Good Friday Agreement is taking legal action against the government.

Ciaran McClean has launched a legal challenge against the proposed deal between the Conservative Party and the DUP.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/23/northern-irish-politician-launches-legal-challenge-against-conservatives-and-dup-6730340/

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Brexit should be shelved

 

Nobody has been able to clearly explain what the benefits are

 

Instead we should focus on getting our technical training up to German standards

 

Build a proper stock of social housing

 

Get a decent health service

 

Nationalise the utilities

 

Sort out our dilapidated infrastructure

 

Reconsider Brexit 10 years from

now when we are in better shape and not in the laughable state we're in now

Ignore democracy.

 

Ignore the majority.

 

Ignore the referendum.

 

Typical EU ideology!

 

I have explained the failings of the EU, most of which you seemed to accept at the time, Grouse. But these are easily forgotten, aren't they? Germans make nice cars and tanks and I know that you love them. But these things alone are not of high value to me. With the way that the EU uses words like irreversible and irrevocable, it is likely that Brexit may not even be an option in ten years' time! There will probably be yet another treaty, even more cryptic than the Lisbon version, but with no Article 50 in it all!  

 

The EU breaks its own rules whenever it suits. The political deviousness of the EU is reason enough to get out now. 

 

[Grouse]

25 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Ignore democracy.

 

Ignore the majority.

 

Ignore the referendum.

 

Typical EU ideology!

 

I have explained the failings of the EU, most of which you seemed to accept at the time, Grouse. But these are easily forgotten, aren't they? Germans make nice cars and tanks and I know that you love them. But these things alone are not of high value to me. With the way that the EU uses words like irreversible and irrevocable, it is likely that Brexit may not even be an option in ten years' time! There will probably be yet another treaty, even more cryptic than the Lisbon version, but with no Article 50 in it all!  

 

The EU breaks its own rules whenever it suits. The political deviousness of the EU is reason enough to get out now. 

 

But what are the benefits?

 

The timing is all wrong anyway

[Johnyo]

Why is it the German and other EU members are so desperate for the UK to remain. The UK people really haven't bought into the whole EU concept. The UK people do not want to be European and have their own identity. So as we are clearly outsiders and we want out, why are the EU making it so difficult for us to leave. After all aren't we hated, disliked for not 'doing as we are told' and pulling the EU line. We are divided by sea and scorned as 'not European. I would have thought the EU would be glad to see the back of us. We never wanted the Euro and never will. So why exactly doesn't the EU want the UK to leave them. mmm not difficult is it!

 

I have read many comments from you saying that the EU are making this and that difficult. As far as I can see they just want the UK to GTFO as soon as possible and it's Maybot that has been making things difficult from the start.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/brexit-may-blocked-unilateral-offer-for-eu-citizens-rights-last-june?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

 

 

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[jpinx]

42 minutes ago, sandyf said:

"' Chances are she (May) will cave to the DUP"

 

She may have to win first.

 

A Northern Irish politician who campaigned for the Good Friday Agreement is taking legal action against the government.

Ciaran McClean has launched a legal challenge against the proposed deal between the Conservative Party and the DUP.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/23/northern-irish-politician-launches-legal-challenge-against-conservatives-and-dup-6730340/

Some great points sandyf.

 

Trade in the future will depend on the trading partners and the WTO only becomes involved if both partners are already "signed up" with the WTO ..  UK currently trades with other EU countries based on the EU agreements, but the question I pose is, will trade between UK and - for example - Spain - revert to the prior WTO agreement that existed between them before the EU's own agreements were rubber-stamped by the WTO?  Another possibility would be to take the trade element of the terms of the EU agreements between UK pre-brexit and an individual EM member country and apply them via WTO. Being a pre-existing agreement, the WTO would have little input and the process would be much more speedy.  Yes - it's a biut simplistic, but the current thinking amongst the best Westminster minds is so muddled as to be unfathomable. People are only slowly coming to understand that Brexit ia a blank piece of paper and a gtreat opportunity to rewrite UK's place as a trading partner with it's european neighbours, Such a freedom is truly frightening for both politicians and Beaurocrats of all political hues, so they frantically scrable throug the exist paperwork and try to patch it up - not having the vision to create something new and better..  UK voted for Brexit at the referendum, but then voted for a truly pathetic bunch of mindless sheep to implement it.

 

The DUP find themselves almost on the same side as Sinn Fein now, both talking to both sides of the house in attempts to get the "bet deal" for their angles in NI.  TM has no idea what she has bitten off with the DUP, and they are currently masking their agenda behind the financing of infrastructure, but the reality is they will be going for support beyond re-establishing rule from Stormont. 

 

Immigration is starting to take a back seat now as people realise that the issue is already governable with current rules.  The fly-in-the-ointment is the link between freedom of movement of immigrants from EU and freedom of trade between EU countries.  That issue will easily be resolved when MP's wake up and realise that UK just tore up the old agreement - it no longer applies and they need to apply their own currently existing immigration laws.

 

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

But what are the benefits?

 

The timing is all wrong anyway

The main benefit at the moment is escape from the EU itself, which only really benefits Germany if you look right at it. The EU can be controlled by Germany, with France plus a few other small countries. 

 

The really bad timing was in 1973, when we were signed in by Heath, who widely mislead the British voters, who would otherwise have rejected going in. Since then the morphing EU machine has purposely created a spider's web of treaties and conditions that make it more and more complicated and difficult to withdraw. As a member, the UK has had no real influence within the EU and has lost most of its veto powers and 40% of the rebate. What is left of the rebate looks like it will disappear shortly.

 

The timing is right purely because there may well not be another opportunity. 

[Johnyo]

The main benefit at the moment is escape from the EU itself, which only really benefits Germany if you look right at it. The EU can be controlled by Germany, with France plus a few other small countries. 
 
The really bad timing was in 1973, when we were signed in by Heath, who widely mislead the British voters, who would otherwise have rejected going in. Since then the morphing EU machine has purposely created a spider's web of treaties and conditions that make it more and more complicated and difficult to withdraw. As a member, the UK has had no real influence within the EU and has lost most of its veto powers and 40% of the rebate. What is left of the rebate looks like it will disappear shortly.
 
The timing is right purely because there may well not be another opportunity. 

Doesn't say much for U.K. politicians over the last 40 years if they let Germany be the boss. Just shows that moaning gets you nowhere, at least that is what I tell my wife.


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[rockingrobin]

3 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Some great points sandyf.

 

Trade in the future will depend on the trading partners and the WTO only becomes involved if both partners are already "signed up" with the WTO ..  UK currently trades with other EU countries based on the EU agreements, but the question I pose is, will trade between UK and - for example - Spain - revert to the prior WTO agreement that existed between them before the EU's own agreements were rubber-stamped by the WTO?  Another possibility would be to take the trade element of the terms of the EU agreements between UK pre-brexit and an individual EM member country and apply them via WTO. Being a pre-existing agreement, the WTO would have little input and the process would be much more speedy.  Yes - it's a biut simplistic, but the current thinking amongst the best Westminster minds is so muddled as to be unfathomable. People are only slowly coming to understand that Brexit ia a blank piece of paper and a gtreat opportunity to rewrite UK's place as a trading partner with it's european neighbours, Such a freedom is truly frightening for both politicians and Beaurocrats of all political hues, so they frantically scrable throug the exist paperwork and try to patch it up - not having the vision to create something new and better..  UK voted for Brexit at the referendum, but then voted for a truly pathetic bunch of mindless sheep to implement it.

 

The DUP find themselves almost on the same side as Sinn Fein now, both talking to both sides of the house in attempts to get the "bet deal" for their angles in NI.  TM has no idea what she has bitten off with the DUP, and they are currently masking their agenda behind the financing of infrastructure, but the reality is they will be going for support beyond re-establishing rule from Stormont. 

 

Immigration is starting to take a back seat now as people realise that the issue is already governable with current rules.  The fly-in-the-ointment is the link between freedom of movement of immigrants from EU and freedom of trade between EU countries.  That issue will easily be resolved when MP's wake up and realise that UK just tore up the old agreement - it no longer applies and they need to apply their own currently existing immigration laws.

 

The WTO - EU schedueles are not that simple and in some cases discriminatory. Take for example the EU position on the protection to citrus industry, at present can the UK realistically adopt the EU 's position considering no such industry in the UK.

A bigger factor is the EU 's position on agriculture protection it negotiated with the WTO , a far more generous amount than what Russia managed, will the UK be adopting the same as an independant nation without opening a dispute

[jpinx]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Not quite. This issue has already been to court and the court ruled that Euro clearing could remain in the UK as it was an EU member state and there is every likelihood that decision will be overturned.

There is a precedent, the US has taken control of the dollar so there is little to stop the EU taking full control of the Euro.

So true -- in what world are people living in that thought a country can not take control of it's currency?  Control of the euro would be better suited to any of the euro-zone members, of which UK is not one.  The fact the control rested with UK for many years in that situation speaks volumes about the mess the eurozone is in with it's internally flawed banking structure.  Now that chicken might well come home to roost and the MEPs want to extract a fiscal control based on dodgy political grounds for a benefit to the EU which has not been thought through properly.

[nauseus]

Just now, Johnyo said:

 

Doesn't say much for U.K. politicians over the last 40 years if they let Germany be the boss. Just shows that moaning gets you nowhere, at least that is what I tell my wife.


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Even when Thatcher finally worked it out and said "no no no" she only lasted a few weeks. Most of the leading politicians (party leaders) that are likely to be voted into power in the UK and elsewhere are pre-assigned via EU influence.  

[Johnyo]

Even when Thatcher finally worked it out and said "no no no" she only lasted a few weeks. Most of the leading politicians (party leaders) that are likely to be voted into power in the UK and elsewhere are pre-assigned via EU influence.  

That is one hell of a conspiracy theory.


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[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

It is a bit difficult to describe something that has no current definition. The UK does not have a current WTO tariff profile, it trades under the EU tariff profile, tariffs are all listed on the WTO website. The simplest solution would be for the UK to adopt the EU profile but that will be subject to approval by the WTO membership. It was never going to be easy getting that approval but it becomes increasingly difficult every time TM opens her mouth.

Everyone seems to think that trading under WTO would be the worst case scenario, but its not.

If there is no EU trade agreement and no WTO profile has been established then the UK would have to trade completely independent. Every trade would would be determined by parties involved, no price control and no rules or regulations, total free for all with the most powerful getting the better part of the deal.

TM hung her hat on getting an EU trade agreement but she is walking the line, the UK cannot have a WTO tariff profile as a member of the EU and the WTO is not renowned for getting things done quickly.

 

My point entirely- expressed with great erudition!  Fine post.

 

Nevertheless, you will be condemned to death as a scaremongerer.

 

 

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

Not quite. This issue has already been to court and the court ruled that Euro clearing could remain in the UK as it was an EU member state and there is every likelihood that decision will be overturned.

There is a precedent, the US has taken control of the dollar so there is little to stop the EU taking full control of the Euro.

I shall research.

 

This was my understanding and is Bloomberg's words: "The ECB claimed power over clearing back in 2011, including the right to require firms that clear euro-denominated derivatives and other contracts to set up shop in the currency zone. The U.K. challenged this claim in court and won. In a 2015 judgment, the EU’s General Court ruled that the ECB lacked this authority."

 

To my thinking that meant the EU could not prevent countries outside the currency zone.  And the situation has not changed- UK has never been in the currency zone.

 

Perhaps that is wrong.  What is your info ?

Edited June 24, 2017 by mommysboy
addition

[mommysboy]

43 minutes ago, Johnyo said:

 

I have read many comments from you saying that the EU are making this and that difficult. As far as I can see they just want the UK to GTFO as soon as possible and it's Maybot that has been making things difficult from the start.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/brexit-may-blocked-unilateral-offer-for-eu-citizens-rights-last-june?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

 

 

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Sadly, there is no easy out.  The whole thing is a logistical nightmnare and will take ages. 

[Johnyo]

 
My point entirely- expressed with great erudition!  Fine post.
 
Nevertheless, you will be condemned to death as a scaremongerer.
 
 
[/quot

I can just imagine the Europeans laughing whilst drinking Proseco every time she said No deal is better thank a bad deal.


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[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Ignore democracy.

 

Ignore the majority.

 

Ignore the referendum.

 

Typical EU ideology!

 

I have explained the failings of the EU, most of which you seemed to accept at the time, Grouse. But these are easily forgotten, aren't they? Germans make nice cars and tanks and I know that you love them. But these things alone are not of high value to me. With the way that the EU uses words like irreversible and irrevocable, it is likely that Brexit may not even be an option in ten years' time! There will probably be yet another treaty, even more cryptic than the Lisbon version, but with no Article 50 in it all!  

 

The EU breaks its own rules whenever it suits. The political deviousness of the EU is reason enough to get out now. 

 

It's just a matter of frustration.  If it can't be done without considerable cost and disruption then it should be abandoned (futility rule)

[mommysboy]

36 minutes ago, nauseus said:

The main benefit at the moment is escape from the EU itself, which only really benefits Germany if you look right at it. The EU can be controlled by Germany, with France plus a few other small countries. 

 

The really bad timing was in 1973, when we were signed in by Heath, who widely mislead the British voters, who would otherwise have rejected going in. Since then the morphing EU machine has purposely created a spider's web of treaties and conditions that make it more and more complicated and difficult to withdraw. As a member, the UK has had no real influence within the EU and has lost most of its veto powers and 40% of the rebate. What is left of the rebate looks like it will disappear shortly.

 

The timing is right purely because there may well not be another opportunity. 

 

At any cost and without a good plan?  Surely the situation is not so bad.

 

[AlexRich]

4 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

You sound more like Junker by the minute and seem to have a crystal ball on Australia. Strong Ties is not the same as being dominated and told what to do on every level. If its the same old claptrap then I am happy. The truth often hurts.

 

We were fine before the EU and we will be fine after. You make the EU sound like a super race and if you don't belong, you are inferior. That was also done before, also run by the Germans and look what happened!

 

The truth never worries me, it's the constant lies and hyperbole from Brexit supporters on here that is the concern.

 

If the UK were "dominated and told what to do on every level" then our budget, tax rates, financial rules, currency etc would all be decided by Brussels. Clearly, that is not the case. If what you are saying was in fact true we would not be discussing the slide in GBP because we would be in the Euro. More nonsense from you ... but you are at least consistent.

 

Iceland is part of EFTA and EEA ... if it is better to be completely detached why would they bother? Switzerland is also in EFTA. Others above have explained how close these countries are with the EU ... and for good commercial reasons. Australia trades mostly with close neighbours, for good commercial reasons. The UK has voted to make trade with close neighbours more difficult and onerous ... back to the period before the EU when the UK had the weakest growth of all the major European countries ... a vote for everyone to be poorer.

 

And for what? You ramble on about German aggression in Europe ... but omit the fact that this was before the EU and that there has been no wars since then, just closer ties and much better relations and understandings. What you are promoting is the opposite.