May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

We all know that growth has slowed, but has remained stable. But it's not the recession that you were predicting under your old Chiang Mai alias. You have been proven plain wrong.

Predicting recessions is the job of the Chancellor and the BOE. Please post a link to my alleged prediction, otherwise what you say is untrue yet again!

Edited December 28, 2017 by simoh1490

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

I'm blaming a large part of the uncertainty, which is helping to damage economic confidence, on Project Fear's continuing campaign of disruption.

 

The 0.3% and 0.4% economic growth has now become 0.2% and 0.3%, has it? Subtle. And yes, it is moderate growth, a positive, as acknowledged by economists (but not you).

 

I will ignore the personal stuff that is a routine aspect of your posts on these discussions. Though I will remark that it's a testament to tolerant moderation that you are allowed to get away with so much of it without getting suspended.

More of the same without any evidence or proof of anything other than your same repeated words and phrases! 

 

As said, 0.3% is technically or numerically a positive number, but in terms of GDP growth, it is so appalling low as to be an embarrassment to any economist who tries to sell it as a positive outcome. It says, by the skin of our teeth we made it into positive territory, not an outcome or accomplishment you'd want to put on your CV for your next job, rather something you'd want to hide in the corner and only expose to provide an argument of last resort when there are no more sustainable arguments left in the toolkit!

Edited December 28, 2017 by simoh1490

[soalbundy]

12 hours ago, nontabury said:

Would these be the same economist that got it so wrong in 2008, and even more wrong with their prediction that immediately after the result of  referendum were known, that the U.K  would go into immediate decline.

 

 

As I said, we shall see. The EU has obviously no interest in making it easy for the UK. I think it is only a matter of degree, marginally worse off or drastically worse off, probably somewhere inbetween.  

[soalbundy]

12 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

There is no doubt that the uncertainty surrounding brexit (in no small part the fault of remain's Project Fear) has affected the UK economy. Though nowhere near as much as was predicted, as can be seen by the fact that the economy has resolutely stayed in moderate growth. Coupled with a likely interim deal with the EU which will give us breathing space to organise our long- term post-brexit future, I see our future as bright.

There was a project fear by remainers as there was a project lies or over optimism by brexiteers. Moderate growth could, instead, have been substantial growth so even though the UK hasn't yet left the EU it has already been adversely effected. I agree that an interim deal is likely but I disagree that this breathing space will help, the UK was never good at forward planing, more at muddling through which is mistaken for innovation instead of being recognized as incompetence ( politically seen ) The UK's star has been falling since the first world war, they need to attach themselves to a steam liner in the ocean, not cut themselves adrift singing 'now we are free'. I found this emotional debacle over blue passports typical, as the EU said, the UK could have kept the old passport, nobody forced them to change, but hey, it's a victory, now we get the blue passport back. 

[Khun Han]

13 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

There was a project fear by remainers as there was a project lies or over optimism by brexiteers. Moderate growth could, instead, have been substantial growth so even though the UK hasn't yet left the EU it has already been adversely effected. I agree that an interim deal is likely but I disagree that this breathing space will help, the UK was never good at forward planing, more at muddling through which is mistaken for innovation instead of being recognized as incompetence ( politically seen ) The UK's star has been falling since the first world war, they need to attach themselves to a steam liner in the ocean, not cut themselves adrift singing 'now we are free'. I found this emotional debacle over blue passports typical, as the EU said, the UK could have kept the old passport, nobody forced them to change, but hey, it's a victory, now we get the blue passport back. 

 

What an absurdly negative post! The UK's star has held up fine in the modern era: We've continued to punch above our weight for good reasons. You left decades ago  and threw your lot in with Germany. Fair enough. Your bitter and twisted put downs of your country of birth aren't fair enough.

[nauseus]

15 hours ago, oldhippy said:

From the first punk song ever - My Generation by The Who, in 1965 (no not 1975) : I hope I die before I get old.

I can only hope that I will see that moment coming, and not end up as a sad old, flag waving man. That would be embarrassing.

I'm serious.

And for once I am not sarcastic.

 

 

 

 

But you have your own theory and definition of the history of "punk", a word not used in the 60's.

 

The Who were too talented to be called a punk band.

[sandyf]

14 hours ago, nontabury said:

Give it a rest, none of us Brexiteers are expecting a return to our gloriouse past.

We just want our democracy restored.

 

Regarding Muslims, 

let’s not forget that due to Angela Metkals disasterouse invite to the followers of Islam, that in 2or 3 yrs time, many of those 100,000 ‘s people will be able to obtain a German Passport. Thankfully due to Brexit they will find it more difficult to enter the U.K.

probably preferring to make their home in Belgium, especially in those peaceful districts such as  Molenbeek and  SchaerBeek, so that should make you very happy. As of now Antwerp and Brussels only have 16% of the population being Muslim, compared with Birmingham 21% or Bradford 25%. 

 

 

 

The UK has always been a Parliamentary Democracy, never changed so how can it be restored.

 

"We want to control the borders"   The borders have always been controlled or do you think that people just walk into the UK.

 

"There are too many immigrants"  The government has always had the ability to control immigration but how they implemented that control is open to debate. The perception is that in allowing people into the UK and not providing the resources to handle the increased demand is a result of EU policy.

 

The UK government has a dismal track record in supporting essential services and for some obscure reason some seem to think that leaving the EU is going to make everything better. The odds are better on an outsider in the Grand National.

[nauseus]

35 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

There was a project fear by remainers as there was a project lies or over optimism by brexiteers. Moderate growth could, instead, have been substantial growth so even though the UK hasn't yet left the EU it has already been adversely effected. I agree that an interim deal is likely but I disagree that this breathing space will help, the UK was never good at forward planing, more at muddling through which is mistaken for innovation instead of being recognized as incompetence ( politically seen ) The UK's star has been falling since the first world war, they need to attach themselves to a steam liner in the ocean, not cut themselves adrift singing 'now we are free'. I found this emotional debacle over blue passports typical, as the EU said, the UK could have kept the old passport, nobody forced them to change, but hey, it's a victory, now we get the blue passport back. 

You steam liner is in process of sustaining several holes below the waterline from icebergs of ever-increasing size. Let go all!

[Naam]

Quote

nontabury

 

let’s not forget that due to Angela Metkals disasterouse invite to the followers of Islam, that in 2or 3 yrs time, many of those 100,000 ‘s people will be able to obtain a German Passport. Thankfully due to Brexit they will find it more difficult to enter the U.K.

probably preferring to make their home in Belgium

let's not forget that the minimum is 8 years to obtain German citizenship and if successful why would anybody who has achieved this want to move to UK or Belgium where less job opportunities for less money and less perks are available? 

[Naam]

11 minutes ago, nauseus said:

You steam liner is in process of sustaining several holes below the waterline from icebergs of ever-increasing size. Let go all!

one of the usual unsubstantiated Brexiteer claims.

[simoh1490]

51 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

There was a project fear by remainers as there was a project lies or over optimism by brexiteers. Moderate growth could, instead, have been substantial growth so even though the UK hasn't yet left the EU it has already been adversely effected. I agree that an interim deal is likely but I disagree that this breathing space will help, the UK was never good at forward planing, more at muddling through which is mistaken for innovation instead of being recognized as incompetence ( politically seen ) The UK's star has been falling since the first world war, they need to attach themselves to a steam liner in the ocean, not cut themselves adrift singing 'now we are free'. I found this emotional debacle over blue passports typical, as the EU said, the UK could have kept the old passport, nobody forced them to change, but hey, it's a victory, now we get the blue passport back. 

You make a valid and useful point, Project Fear was overdone but now Project Ignore on the part of the Brexit bunch has also been way overdone. Perhaps there was a basis to question some aspects of project fear but to ignore all of it entirely and then, to ignore everything that gets puts forward by way of constructive argument, is irrational if not insane.

[soalbundy]

41 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

What an absurdly negative post! The UK's star has held up fine in the modern era: We've continued to punch above our weight for good reasons. You left decades ago  and threw your lot in with Germany. Fair enough. Your bitter and twisted put downs of your country of birth aren't fair enough.

I don't think I am bitter and twisted with regards to the UK, negative, yes, but that comes from my experience of having lived there. I lived 45 years in Germany and grew to love the country but I can also see faults there as well, in fact I found very little difference in their general attitudes to those of the people of the UK, it's just that things work in Germany and there is forward planning. I don't see where the UK punches above its weight, yes it has some brilliant scientists,engineers and I.T. experts but when it comes to making a product from advanced knowledge suddenly it's another country that does it. It has lost its industrial base due to political incompetence and the class divide (the workers sense of them and us). I used to work as a tool maker in some large firms in the UK and had first hand experience of the bitter struggles of management trying to get things done but being held back by trade union obstruction but this was due to past bad behaviour by the owners of wealth,what it is like now I have no idea but the fact that children have now been found suffering with rickets and that food banks are necessary doesn't seem to me representative of a caring forward marching society. Is there hidden poverty in Germany, yes, housing problems, yes, there are I believe 200,000 homeless there, but generally social welfare and the health system work far better and there isn't the stabbings, acid throwing, and general thuggish behaviour that seems rampant in the UK (my knowledge here stems only from newspapers of course, all my family and extended family have moved to Australia)

[talahtnut]

21 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Growth can mean a lot things in an economic context. Technically speaking, the UK is now enjoying growth - low growth but it's growth. But if you dig deeper it's even lower than it looks. Remember that this growth figure is for the UK as a whole. But the population of the UK is increasing at a rate of 0.8 percent per year. So on a per capita basis the growth is almost at zero. In addition, next to the USA, among all fully developed nations, the UK has the greatest disparity in income levels among its population. So it may well be that while there has been a tiny amount of growth for the UK as a whole, for its individual citizens, there may actually have been a decline in income. And clearly these numbers don't tell it all.  There is the decline in purchasing power of the pound to consider. In fact, if you look at fuller economic data,  it turns out that disposable income per capita has actually declined in the UK over the past year and a half.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/14721/concepts/economic-growth-per-capita/

Nice one...Adding to that, government figures are at best 0.03% deceptive.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

one of the usual unsubstantiated Brexiteer claims.

Or unusual? 

[taipeir]

  What an absurdly negative post! The UK's star has held up fine in the modern era: We've continued to punch above our weight for good reasons. You left decades ago  and threw your lot in with Germany. Fair enough. Your bitter and twisted put downs of your country of birth aren't fair enough.

 

Its okay. 

This mum can send her kid to university by taking a picture of the 'elite' and 'out

of touch'.

 

I found this article and viewpoint very bizarre as a non Brit

 

Mum hopes royal photo can pay for university - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42480224

 

Why does a mum have to be 'lucky ' to take a photo of some government subsidised toffs so she can pay for her kids university education ?

 

University is practically free in Germany.

 

[persimmon]

It would be interesting to have another referendum in the UK where voters are told that one of the effects of leaving the EU might be lower economic growth.I suspect many people would still vote " Leave " such is the dislike/distrust of the EU.Divorces are never easy,but when the partners want to go in different directions,its the best thing in the long run.

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

You make a valid and useful point, Project Fear was overdone but now Project Ignore on the part of the Brexit bunch has also been way overdone. Perhaps there was a basis to question some aspects of project fear but to ignore all of it entirely and then, to ignore everything that gets puts forward by way of constructive argument, is irrational if not insane.

I'd agree, except project fear is ongoing - making it even more difficult to reach a conclusion as to the best way forward .

 

Who do we 'believe'?  The relentless pessimism of remainers, or the optimism of determined leavers?

[ilostmypassword]

34 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Nice one...Adding to that, government figures are at best 0.03% deceptive.

You are entitled to your own opinions. But not to your own facts. 

[taipeir]

It would be interesting to have another referendum in the UK where voters are told that one of the effects of leaving the EU might be lower economic growth.I suspect many people would still vote " Leave " such is the dislike/distrust of the EU.Divorces are never easy,but when the partners want to go in different directions,its the best thing in the long run.

Vast majority of EU don't care much about the UK leaving , maybe Ireland where there are border issues is most concerned that's about it.

I think the referendum wouldn't win according to the polls but the Tories and the british press have done their best to try and make any chance to have another vote very very difficult by activating article 50 and spreading a lot of conspiracies around.

[taipeir]

I'd agree, except project fear is ongoing - making it even more difficult to reach a conclusion as to the best way forward .

 

Who do we 'believe'?  The relentless pessimism of remainers, or the optimism of determined leavers?

I think you make up your own mind.

 

Older people especially pensioners don't have as much skin in the game.

Younger people with an education generally have more to lose.

But it's your call but you aren't getting any real to input on nature of Brexit.

[dick dasterdly]

48 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Nice one...Adding to that, government figures are at best 0.03% deceptive.

 

13 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

You are entitled to your own opinions. But not to your own facts. 

talahnut's post was a much appreciated joke about government lies, damned lies and statistics, (echoing the argument about growth statistics) which certainly gave me a laugh.

 

But you're right insofar as government figures are 100% untrustworthy IMO - not just 0.03% deceptive .

Edited December 28, 2017 by dick dasterdly

[ilostmypassword]

15 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

talahnut's post was a much appreciated joke about government lies, damned lies and statistics, (echoing the argument about growth statistics) which certainly gave me a laugh.

 

But you're right insofar as government figures are 100% untrustworthy IMO - not just 0.03% deceptive .

Such a convenient sense of truth you have. When the figures showed that the UK was doing just fine after the referendum, you had no objections. Now that they're saying something different, you and talahnut have rediscovered your sense of skepticism.

[talahtnut]

Looking to the future of the UK, and considering the increasing Muslim influence.

We should join them and replace the government with the Islamic system.

Peace be upon you...[some hope!]

[simoh1490]

51 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

I'd agree, except project fear is ongoing - making it even more difficult to reach a conclusion as to the best way forward .

 

Who do we 'believe'?  The relentless pessimism of remainers, or the optimism of determined leavers?

I disagree about the fear, I think now it's more likely to be uncertainty. Any economics forecaster worth their salt is going to err on the side of caution, to do so is only sensible. If that paints a darker picture than might otherwise exist that's probably OK since the old adage of under promise and over deliver applies, most people would I think prefer to be pleasantly surprised at the end rather than find there's a nasty unpredicted shock in store.

 

The major problem as I see it, the one that causes most divisions between the two camps, is that only one side is putting out forecasts and making predictions based on them. That leaves everyone to critique a single model that is labeled as anti-Brexit right out of the gate, if both camps would prepare models there would be a basis for comparison and we could all argue which was the best, as things stand the remain camp spends all its time defending its own model whereas the brexit camp spends all its time trying to destroy its validity. Indeed, any model or negative data out of government or any of its perceived allies in this fight is seen to be remainoganda (copyright), unless the findings agree with the Brexit agenda.

 

At some point we each have to make up our own minds on which is the best way forward, based on the evidence that exists, models and such will only ever answer some of the questions never all of them. But since most of the evidence, models and forecasts etc, are from the remain camp, trying to dissuade a remainer that the evidence is wrong is tough going since there's nothing from Team brexit to convince them their models are wrong other than the mumblings of an oddball university professor in Wales. Similarly, trying to convince  brexiteers that their stance is wrong is now almost impossible, because like the fox hunting issue, it's no longer the core issue that matters, instead, defeating the opposition is the objective, regardless of the costs.

[Steve Mepham]

21 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Aren't you aware of what real GDP growth figures look like, hint: they tend to be greater than 1% at a minimum, anything else is regarded as failing!

Are you suggesting that each quarter should be 1% plus figure to be considered growth ?? Genuine question

[simoh1490]

8 minutes ago, Steve Mepham said:

Are you suggesting that each quarter should be 1% plus figure to be considered growth ?? Genuine question

No, not really. I'm simply trying to make the point that 0.3% is only a whisker away from a negative number, two of which in succession equals a recession. For me, an unambiguous growth figure, something that indicates a positive upwards trend would be something over 0.5, just like positive PMI Markit indicators are anything greater than 50, less than 50 is considered contraction. 

[i claudius]

I dont care how much the economy grows 0.2 0.3 as long as each month its up .just like the pound if it only goes up 25 satang every month in a year or so i will be very happy

Sent from my [device_name] using http://Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[ilostmypassword]

2 minutes ago, i claudius said:

I dont care how much the economy grows 0.2 0.3 as long as each month its up .just like the pound if it only goes up 25 satang every month in a year or so i will be very happy

Sent from my [device_name] using http://Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Well, if the UK economy grows as slowly as you are willing to settle for, then the odds are that the pound will go down in value.

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, i claudius said:

I dont care how much the economy grows 0.2 0.3 as long as each month its up .just like the pound if it only goes up 25 satang every month in a year or so i will be very happy

Sent from my [device_name] using http://Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Except, as already pointed out, if GDP only increases by 0.3% and the population increases and the Pound falls, GDP growth is really negative, that's why it needs to be a higher number, that plus the confidence that the growth is sustainable.

[Grouse]

This sounds good

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ian-blackford-asks-jeremy-corbyn-to-back-brexit-strategy-xvs8m0f3k

 

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15795225.SNP_urge_Corbyn_to_join_cross_party_summit_to_fight_hard_Brexit/

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/snp-urges-jeremy-corbyn-join-11761902

 

This could be the start of something positive ?

 

Edited December 28, 2017 by Grouse