May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, aright said:

Indeed I was.

That still doesn't explain why you refer to Germans on the one hand as suffering from being in the EU and on the other hand as benefiting from it? Confused much?

And your reference to German voters is so vague as to be meaningless. Which german voters? Most? An increasing percentage. Because the EU has greatly improved its favorability ratings among Germans and among most of its member nations as the EU economy recovers.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/15/post-brexit-europeans-more-favorable-toward-eu/

[Khun Han]

13 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

That still doesn't explain why you refer to Germans on the one hand as suffering from being in the EU and on the other hand as benefiting from it? Confused much?

And your reference to German voters is so vague as to be meaningless. Which german voters? Most? An increasing percentage. Because the EU has greatly improved its favorability ratings among Germans and among most of its member nations as the EU economy recovers.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/15/post-brexit-europeans-more-favorable-toward-eu/

 

That was a pretty rapid change of subject .

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, SheungWan said:

You got it right the first time, silly. Yes, he comes from the Orthodox Trotskyist tradition (please do ask me what the Orthodox signifies if you have trouble sleeping). Knowing this explains Corbyn's position on the EU. All the Hard Left groups recommended voting for Brexit. Corbyn's whole being is for Brexit and that is why with him as Dear Leader there ain't going to be a second third referendum. As for Corbyn not quite chiming with old revolutionary texts, well that is due to the Left's capitulation to populism as does the Hard Right. Sorry Comrade.

Funnily enough, I just woke up! It's 02.10 in Singers. Do tell what Orthodox refers to?? I assume he doesn't wear a cross and a funny hat?

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, aright said:

Joy unrequited!

Has your application to surrender British citizenship for a new all embracing EU Passport been approved yet? If not I am sure many of your friends on here would be happy prepared to give you an endorsement. There's no point staying where you aren't happy is there...well...unless you're on benefits. 

We wish you well in your chosen Valhalla and hope you can wean yourself off subversion which has always been poorly rewarded.

We wish you well in a Union where German voters are already asking whether they want to  remain in a project which involves the bailing out of less competitive countries like Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain and to a lesser extent France.

We wish you well in embracing a  a single currency project where it would appear to be more appropriate to have "Premier League" and "Second Division" economic policies. People in Germany et al are very reluctant to pay for failed countries in the South...that wasn't the prospectus they were offered when they joined the monetary union.

We wish the EU well in addressing the issues of unemployment and poverty and hope you will eventually grasp that for many people life in the EU isn't that great.The EU has tough economic rules but gives you little palpable in return; unless you are Germany of course.

I feel myself banging on a bit now so won't go into the undemocratic architecture of the EU, their need for more bureaucracy, their inefficient policies , the federalisation effect etc.

I am sure you have solutions to all these problems but we have yet to hear them.

When the passport comes through we wish you well in your new home!

Nurse! Aright's out of bed again!

[Grouse]

I'm going back to sleep!

 

One halb of Lowenbrau too many!

 

 

[oldhippy]

9 hours ago, SheungWan said:

You got it right the first time, silly. Yes, he comes from the Orthodox Trotskyist tradition (please do ask me what the Orthodox signifies if you have trouble sleeping). Knowing this explains Corbyn's position on the EU. All the Hard Left groups recommended voting for Brexit. Corbyn's whole being is for Brexit and that is why with him as Dear Leader there ain't going to be a second third referendum. As for Corbyn not quite chiming with old revolutionary texts, well that is due to the Left's capitulation to populism as does the Hard Right. Sorry Comrade.

I notice that "Trotskyism" is still used as a swear word.

That is an old tradition, introduced by Stalin.

For a more intelligent discussion of the subject:

(between the ex Trotskyist Christopher Hitchens and a non marxist author of books on the Russian revolution) - Stanford University.

 

[aright]

8 hours ago, Grouse said:

Nurse! Aright's out of bed again!

Nurse! Grouse has his hands in his pants and is faking another orgasm again. Sadly he  has also run out of words

Edited February 5, 2018 by aright

[Scott]

Continue and I will give you some time off, so you can both get some rest.

 

Please stay on topic.  

[aright]

14 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

That still doesn't explain why you refer to Germans on the one hand as suffering from being in the EU and on the other hand as benefiting from it? Confused much?

And your reference to German voters is so vague as to be meaningless. Which german voters? Most? An increasing percentage. Because the EU has greatly improved its favorability ratings among Germans and among most of its member nations as the EU economy recovers.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/15/post-brexit-europeans-more-favorable-toward-eu/

My 2 business' in the UK  sell almost 25% of their output  to Germany and as a consequence of its importance I stay very close to my customer base. The Germans feel they suffer because as the wealthiest country in the Union they bear the brunt of bailing out the basket cases, and as a result of the UK leaving will have to pay an even greater bill . In short they would be a lot wealthier without this aggravation. 

If you want more look at the satisfaction ratings from the last National Election demographic which changed considerably as a result of a change in voting patterns to more right wing parties. As a result of the vote Germany has not had a Government since September last year and it's likely to continue that way.  Germany is not the stable country it use to be.

German stocks look set to tumble after coalition talks pass a deadline with no agreement

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/german-stocks-look-set-tumble-055900385.html

 

 

[ilostmypassword]

2 hours ago, aright said:

My 2 business' in the UK  sell almost 25% of their output  to Germany and as a consequence of its importance I stay very close to my customer base. The Germans feel they suffer because as the wealthiest country in the Union they bear the brunt of bailing out the basket cases, and as a result of the UK leaving will have to pay an even greater bill . In short they would be a lot wealthier without this aggravation. 

If you want more look at the satisfaction ratings from the last National Election demographic which changed considerably as a result of a change in voting patterns to more right wing parties. As a result of the vote Germany has not had a Government since September last year and it's likely to continue that way.  Germany is not the stable country it use to be.

German stocks look set to tumble after coalition talks pass a deadline with no agreement

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/german-stocks-look-set-tumble-055900385.html

 

 

A non-explanation explanation. Once again, on the one hand you claimed Germans suffered from being in the EU and on the other you claim they're the only ones to benefit significantly. Remember this?

"The EU has tough economic rules but gives you little palpable in return; unless you are Germany of course."

[Khun Han]

22 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

A non-explanation explanation. Once again, on the one hand you claimed Germans suffered from being in the EU and on the other you claim they're the only ones to benefit significantly. Remember this?

"The EU has tough economic rules but gives you little palpable in return; unless you are Germany of course."

 

Germany has had the best out of the EU, via the Eurozone, as you yourself have identified many times. Germans are now starting to see the downsides of the EU: the migrant policies; the increased funding for basket case member economies once the UK is out of the loop (and which Germany will struggle to afford); the hit on it's industries should the EU impose trade restrictions on the UK; etc.

 

Aright is right on both counts.

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, Khun Han said:

 

Germany has had the best out of the EU, via the Eurozone, as you yourself have identified many times. Germans are now starting to see the downsides of the EU: the migrant policies; the increased funding for basket case member economies once the UK is out of the loop (and which Germany will struggle to afford); the hit on it's industries should the EU impose trade restrictions on the UK; etc.

 

Aright is right on both counts.

The UK makes a net contribution to the EU of about 13 billion dollars. In 2016 the German budget surplus was 23 billion dollars. Even if Germany had to foot the difference alone, that 14 biilion will not impose much of a hardship.  

And of course, the criticism of the Euro and the Eurozone, while valid, makes no sense to invoke in the case of the UK which, as far as I'mk aware still runs on pounds. If anything, on the whole the Euro is a plus for the UK in respect to the balance of trade.

[Khun Han]

3 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

The UK makes a net contribution to the EU of about 13 billion dollars. In 2016 the German budget surplus was 23 billion dollars. Even if Germany had to foot the difference alone, that 14 biilion will not impose much of a hardship.  

And of course, the criticism of the Euro and the Eurozone, while valid, makes no sense to invoke in the case of the UK which, as far as I'mk aware still runs on pounds. If anything, on the whole the Euro is a plus for the UK in respect to the balance of trade.

 

Germany has strict laws as to how it's national budget can be allocated. The figures brought up for Merkel to put a coalition together show that there is not going to be any money to spare for extra EU funding.

[ilostmypassword]

23 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Germany has strict laws as to how it's national budget can be allocated. The figures brought up for Merkel to put a coalition together show that there is not going to be any money to spare for extra EU funding.

Exactly how far into the future can your crystal ball see?

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Exactly how far into the future can your crystal ball see?

 

What does the fact that Merkel is having to use up all her country's financial slack to buy a coalition government have to do with crystal ball-gazing?

[ilostmypassword]

9 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

What does the fact that Merkel is having to use up all her country's financial slack to buy a coalition government have to do with crystal ball-gazing?

Because the UK isn't out of the EU yet and who knows what deal will be worked out. What's more, your prediction that Germany won't have any funds left to pay for the EU is based on what exactly? Sometime in the future Germany may have to fork up a few billion more euros? A fraction of the budget? Have you some kind of advance information about the internal machinations of German politics sometime in the future?

[bannork]

The joint trade the EU has with the UK is 3% of its combined GDP whereas the trade the UK has with the EU is equivalent  to 13% of its GDP- is that true?

The EU has told May that financial services are not included in any trade deal. These services account for around £30 billion annually to the UK economy, a quarter of the entire NHS annual budget. omg.

  How is the UK going to make up the loss of trade from the EU by leaving the single market, the EU accounts for 20 % of global GDP compared to India's  1% for example?

Or is free trade with protectionist USA gonna save us?

5555 I don't think so.

[aright]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

What does the fact that Merkel is having to use up all her country's financial slack to buy a coalition government have to do with crystal ball-gazing?

Nothing, but if you can't talk about concrete follow the advice of ILM, C and S and talk about sand.  

[oldhippy]

1 hour ago, bannork said:

The joint trade the EU has with the UK is 3% of its combined GDP whereas the trade the UK has with the EU is equivalent  to 13% of its GDP- is that true?

The EU has told May that financial services are not included in any trade deal. These services account for around £30 billion annually to the UK economy, a quarter of the entire NHS annual budget. omg.

  How is the UK going to make up the loss of trade from the EU by leaving the single market, the EU accounts for 20 % of global GDP compared to India's  1% for example?

Or is free trade with protectionist USA gonna save us?

5555 I don't think so.

Bannork, you think too much.

Why not do the same as the brexiteers: Stop thinking, close your eyes and jump.

 

[ilostmypassword]

30 minutes ago, aright said:

Nothing, but if you can't talk about concrete follow the advice of ILM, C and S and talk about sand.  

And if you don't understand the difference between conditions now and conditions some undetermined date in the future, and are unable to do simple arithmetic, maybe you are better off playing in your own sandbox. 

[aright]

34 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

And if you don't understand the difference between conditions now and conditions some undetermined date in the future, and are unable to do simple arithmetic, maybe you are better off playing in your own sandbox. 

[Khun Han]

5 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Because the UK isn't out of the EU yet and who knows what deal will be worked out. What's more, your prediction that Germany won't have any funds left to pay for the EU is based on what exactly? Sometime in the future Germany may have to fork up a few billion more euros? A fraction of the budget? Have you some kind of advance information about the internal machinations of German politics sometime in the future?

 

There was an analysis a while back in one of the business journals of a proposed deal by Merkel's party to put a coalition government together. The analysis studied specific proposals to get the other parties onside,with detailed costings. Those costings maxed-out the budget, with no redress to raising more money due to strict laws regarding budget constraints. I did post a link to it at the time, but can't remember in which thread (probably one of the threads specific to the topic).

[SheungWan]

6 hours ago, bannork said:

The joint trade the EU has with the UK is 3% of its combined GDP whereas the trade the UK has with the EU is equivalent  to 13% of its GDP- is that true?

The EU has told May that financial services are not included in any trade deal. These services account for around £30 billion annually to the UK economy, a quarter of the entire NHS annual budget. omg.

  How is the UK going to make up the loss of trade from the EU by leaving the single market, the EU accounts for 20 % of global GDP compared to India's  1% for example?

Or is free trade with protectionist USA gonna save us?

5555 I don't think so.

 

5 hours ago, oldhippy said:

Bannork, you think too much.

Why not do the same as the brexiteers: Stop thinking, close your eyes and jump.

But don't forget your Blue Passport. This is critical.

[sandyf]

On 2/4/2018 at 5:35 PM, ilostmypassword said:

And the Brexiters' promise of 350 million quid per week for the NHS? Oddly enough, as soon as the referendum was in, they virtually all disavowed it.

This so called 'project fear' was nothing more than a brexitland myth created by those on the big red bus that found it difficult to differentiate between forecasting and reality.

We have known for decades the uncertainties involved with forecasting, as Michael Fish knows only too well. Why would anyone give a forecast any real credibility and even more so when the model parameters never materialised.

 

Only time will tell if the decision to leave the EU was in the best interests of the UK or not, at this point in time there is very little to indicate that it will be.

[ilostmypassword]

20 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

There was an analysis a while back in one of the business journals of a proposed deal by Merkel's party to put a coalition government together. The analysis studied specific proposals to get the other parties onside,with detailed costings. Those costings maxed-out the budget, with no redress to raising more money due to strict laws regarding budget constraints. I did post a link to it at the time, but can't remember in which thread (probably one of the threads specific to the topic).

First off, right now Germany is running a surplus in its budget. Maybe in future years Germans might decide to go a few billion Euros in the red to fund the difference. Or to authorize a miniscule rise in taxes to fund it. Or the UK might end up with a deal much like Norway's where it contributes to the EU.  Your confiednet assertions about what Germany will do in the future are just empty.  I repeat: Even if Germany were to fund all the slack left by a UK hard brexit, it would still be a miniscule amount in relation to the German budget.

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

First off, right now Germany is running a surplus in its budget. Maybe in future years Germans might decide to go a few billion Euros in the red to fund the difference. Or to authorize a miniscule rise in taxes to fund it. Or the UK might end up with a deal much like Norway's where it contributes to the EU.  Your confiednet assertions about what Germany will do in the future are just empty.  I repeat: Even if Germany were to fund all the slack left by a UK hard brexit, it would still be a miniscule amount in relation to the German budget.

 

We shall see.

[aright]

Don't pay an exit fee and walk away now!

 

Brexit: EU to have power to punish UK at will during transition

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/brexit-eu-power-punish-uk-174900983.html

[Laughing Gravy]

This is why leaving the EU is vital. Walk away Mrs. May.

 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-will-use-sanctions-to-punish-you-during-brexit-transition-says-brussels-

vfwcfswdc

 

Brussels is demanding that Theresa May submit to powers allowing the European Union to ground flights, suspend single market access and impose trade tariffs on the UK during the Brexit transition period.

Under the proposals, the EU would have unprecedented legal powers — without the oversight of European courts — to punish Britain unilaterally if it breached the terms of the transition.

The prime minister has also been warned by Brussels that she must make a legal commitment to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland within weeks or the EU will “stall” Brexit trade and transition talks. Both issues are expected to be discussed by ministers today when the cabinet’s Brexit sub-committee meets to try to reach agreement on the next stage of negotiations.

A five-page legal text drafted by the European Commission and seen by The Times yesterday will infuriate Tory backbenchers who regard transition arrangements as reducing Britain to a “vassal state” after Brexit. The text calls for “a mechanism allowing the union to suspend certain benefits deriving for the UK from participation in the internal market where it considers that referring the matter to Court of Justice of the EU would not bring in appropriate time the necessary remedies”.

The proposal for draconian enforcement powers, which would risk causing a trade war between the EU and Britain, illustrates the mistrust between the government and European states.

[oldhippy]

11 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

This is why leaving the EU is vital. Walk away Mrs. May.

 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-will-use-sanctions-to-punish-you-during-brexit-transition-says-brussels-

vfwcfswdc

 

Brussels is demanding that Theresa May submit to powers allowing the European Union to ground flights, suspend single market access and impose trade tariffs on the UK during the Brexit transition period.

Under the proposals, the EU would have unprecedented legal powers — without the oversight of European courts — to punish Britain unilaterally if it breached the terms of the transition.

The prime minister has also been warned by Brussels that she must make a legal commitment to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland within weeks or the EU will “stall” Brexit trade and transition talks. Both issues are expected to be discussed by ministers today when the cabinet’s Brexit sub-committee meets to try to reach agreement on the next stage of negotiations.

A five-page legal text drafted by the European Commission and seen by The Times yesterday will infuriate Tory backbenchers who regard transition arrangements as reducing Britain to a “vassal state” after Brexit. The text calls for “a mechanism allowing the union to suspend certain benefits deriving for the UK from participation in the internal market where it considers that referring the matter to Court of Justice of the EU would not bring in appropriate time the necessary remedies”.

The proposal for draconian enforcement powers, which would risk causing a trade war between the EU and Britain, illustrates the mistrust between the government and European states.

QUOTE: Under the proposals, the EU would have unprecedented legal powers — without the oversight of European courts — to punish Britain unilaterally if it breached the terms of the transition.

 

Simple solution: Do not breach the terms of the transition, keep your promises.

Complication: The inner fighting within the brexit team will of course continue during the transition period, resulting in the total unreliability of the UK.

[RuamRudy]

2 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

QUOTE: Under the proposals, the EU would have unprecedented legal powers — without the oversight of European courts — to punish Britain unilaterally if it breached the terms of the transition.

 

Simple solution: Do not breach the terms of the transition, keep your promises.

Complication: The inner fighting within the brexit team will of course continue during the transition period, resulting in the total unreliability of the UK.

Exactly - what is the point in negotiating a transition if there are no repercussions upon either party to transgress?