Baht depreciation expected

[craigt3365]

10 minutes ago, Grubster said:

No but I am sure at least that many unemployed and underemployed. underemployed is not gainful employment, like minimum wage and/or the 35 hour work week so many employers are using so they don't have to pay any benefits.   

                  Yes he may do the right thing, but putting equal tariffs on foreign goods would be a much bigger and better step, which he has also promised to do. But doing that would fly in the face of what congress and the foreign lobby do for a living, so I won't hold my breath.      I think he will probably be allowed to make a few small changes there but not enough to make it anything close to fair trade.  We will see soon.     The TPP is dead already and DT won't be able to take credit for that.

Trump is the one who has killed the TPP. 

 

The civilian labor force in the US is about 155 million.  The U6 unemployment rate is about 9.7%.  Thus, your number should be closer to 15 million.  A far cry from 100 million.

 

Tariffs would only hurt the US.  Everybody in power knows this. 

[Grubster]

3 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

Trump is the one who has killed the TPP. 

 

The civilian labor force in the US is about 155 million.  The U6 unemployment rate is about 9.7%.  Thus, your number should be closer to 15 million.  A far cry from 100 million.

 

Tariffs would only hurt the US.  Everybody in power knows this. 

I agree with your unemployed number,  can you give me your number of underemployed.  That is the people who are not gainfully employed, in other words, not able to save or better their lives,  I would say that number is near the other 85 mil I need, maybe not but it is much bigger than unemployed.  These people do not feel like they are part of the American dream.  How would tariffs hurt the US?

[craigt3365]

15 minutes ago, Grubster said:

I agree with your unemployed number,  can you give me your number of underemployed.  That is the people who are not gainfully employed, in other words, not able to save or better their lives,  I would say that number is near the other 85 mil I need, maybe not but it is much bigger than unemployed.  These people do not feel like they are part of the American dream.  How would tariffs hurt the US?

I did.  It's the U6 number.  Actually at 9.5% now.

[Grubster]

24 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

I did.  It's the U6 number.  Actually at 9.5% now.

What is there criteria to fit that group $10'000 income per year or less? In my world if you make under $30,000 you are not gainfully employed, you can barely maintain much less gain.  $ 50,000 if you live in places like NY, Chicago, S.F., or many others.

[YeahSiam]

On 11/26/2016 at 1:00 AM, craigt3365 said:

Perhaps inflation worries?

 

Yeah that's the prevailing narrative but it's pie in the sky.

The Fed can't raise rates without tanking the economy.

Chances are, the Fed will be cutting rates next year and launching another round of quantitative easing to soak up the huge debt issuance Trump's infrastructure stimulus needs

There's a buzzword currently in use that describes this phenomenon

Google "Helicopter money"

[SheungWan]

That was such a great prediction. US interest rate went up and USDTHB went 'er.........down.

Edited March 23, 2017 by SheungWan

[Ramen087]

The Thai economy benefits from a weaker baht; exporting is what it's all about in the Land of Smiles.  

[sendintheclowns]

except that the baht continues to ride high, compared with the majority of other currencies, in particular, of those countries it trades with the most - i.e. EU, Asean.

Bottom line, don't trust anything you read in the news and only 50% of what your mother tells you.

[IMA_FARANG]

What a bunch of crap

The U.S. economy is showing higher job growth, a good inflation rate, and sustainable growth for the first time in years.

That is precisely why the Fed is raising the Fed interest rate base.

The Dollar is undervalued against other major world currencies.

 

[Peterw42]

19 minutes ago, IMA_FARANG said:

What a bunch of crap

The U.S. economy is showing higher job growth, a good inflation rate, and sustainable growth for the first time in years.

That is precisely why the Fed is raising the Fed interest rate base.

The Dollar is undervalued against other major world currencies.

 

A booming economy results in people buying Korean cars and Chinese TVs, an oversupply of US currency. And the isolationist policies that stop trade with the rest of the world, results in no demand for US currency. Why is the dollar undervalued?, its value is how many people want it.

Edited March 31, 2017 by Peterw42

[SheungWan]

34 minutes ago, IMA_FARANG said:

What a bunch of crap

The U.S. economy is showing higher job growth, a good inflation rate, and sustainable growth for the first time in years.

That is precisely why the Fed is raising the Fed interest rate base.

The Dollar is undervalued against other major world currencies.

 

This would assume that the positive data and expectations listed above isn't already baked into the price of USD, which you might argue but may not state as a slam dunk.

[sendintheclowns]

2 hours ago, IMA_FARANG said:

What a bunch of crap

The U.S. economy is showing higher job growth, a good inflation rate, and sustainable growth for the first time in years.

That is precisely why the Fed is raising the Fed interest rate base.

The Dollar is undervalued against other major world currencies.

 

 

US Consumer confidence is at a 16 year ''high''. The stock markets are euphoric  ( ok, 'wonderful').

The WH thinks it can run the country ''like a company''.

What can go wrong?

If you look at a 15 year chart of the demographics of the Republican party, it shows that it is has been splitting up - from a large, Conservative core into extremist, or side line groups, like the Tea Party/Freedom Caucus, with the occasional liberal.

This was fine, when in opposition. However, now that the party is in power, this structure will cause it to fail to govern efficiently. Expect many battles between the WH , Congress and the Senate. Add Trump's strategists & financiers (Mercers, Kochs, Bannon, Kushner) behind the conman in the high tower, together with his unpredictability and you have a recipe for disaster. The only possible hope is the passing of legislation to simplify the tax code and eliminate much of the bureaucratic tape strangling the growth of small businesses.

Edited March 31, 2017 by sendintheclowns
misspelling

[Dumbastheycome]

On 11/26/2016 at 3:00 PM, elgordo38 said:

Lets pray that the tourists still have money to spend as the cost of covering their debt from previous vacations climbs. Higher rates can also take their toll on exports. At the first smell of trouble the consumer pulls in his horns and a snowball effect happens. The debt balancing act is a real challenge. Add higher rates to one side of the scale and you know what happens. All is not golden but on the other hand buy your gold now with a strong baht. Will it go lower hmm. If the Grinch of India decides to close down all gold sales look out below. Don't say never happen this guy like the Philippines is right off the charts. And then Trump joins the club. 

Thats  a large  basket of pessimism  you  have offered  up! At  78  why not  consider the  good  ride as  a premium  on what is to yet ? 

[elgordo38]

5 hours ago, Dumbastheycome said:

Thats  a large  basket of pessimism  you  have offered  up! At  78  why not  consider the  good  ride as  a premium  on what is to yet ? 

I guess I can be like a woman in some ways offer opinions and then go off in a different direction. These panty hose are killing me. 

[Grubster]

I think the US government is trying to figure out how to get its underpaid workers to spend more money that they don't have, their not having much luck. I hope the Baht falls some against all currencies.

[Momofarang]

On 11/26/2016 at 8:24 AM, fruitman said:

Good for Thai exports and tourism.

Good for me...

[fruitman]

2 hours ago, Momofarang said:

Good for me...

You can't say that. If you write it's good for their economy they might change it...if you write it's good for you it will never change.

[Grubster]

They report this every year just to be sure that if it ever does fall, they can say they called it.

[IMA_FARANG]

This is old news from 2016.

This is mid 2017 now, and the Baht is , in my opinion, benefiting from the decline in the dollar especially Donald  Dumbo Trump in the U.S.

A year ago the U.S. dollar was up above 35 Baht to a dollar.

Just got my U.S. pension for July 2017 and the  Dollar/baht rate was down blow 34 baht to a Dollar. (33.83)

The markets hate uncertainty and Donald Dumbo Trump scares them.

Frankly, he scares me also.

 

 

 

[Ace of Pop]

The Thai Bht having any value will always be part of Amazing Thailand. Tourists , Rice Exports and Forign Owned Car Makers are not a good portfolio with an over valued Currency. Only benefits Thai Runaways overseas.!..and my Wife's very important Handbags from Hong Kong..?[emoji383]


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[SheungWan]

On 26/11/2016 at 4:11 AM, IAMHERE said:

Janet Yellin is a political creature that would like nothing more than to see POTUS Trump saddled with a recession before the next election cycle. Janet has a job until 2018 and is going to see what economics she can create to get Democrats elected to the House and Senate in 2018. I expect a raise in rates for December of 2016 and 3 more in 2017 (Feb,April, July).

One wonders from what planet some of these out of thin air confections masquerading as informed comment hails from.

[Grubster]

On 7/7/2017 at 9:03 AM, Ace of Pop said:

The Thai Bht having any value will always be part of Amazing Thailand. Tourists , Rice Exports and Forign Owned Car Makers are not a good portfolio with an over valued Currency. Only benefits Thai Runaways overseas.!..and my Wife's very important Handbags from Hong Kong..?


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

Very true and all those Hi-So's investing in foreign land, companies, currencies etc.

[chilli42]

The US dollar is weak now and many foreign currencies are benefiting.  Wait six months and watch the rest of the world see their currencies decline.  The US tends to be on the sharp end of fighting economic problems that usually find their way elsewhere in time.

[craigt3365]

5 minutes ago, chilli42 said:

The US dollar is weak now and many foreign currencies are benefiting.  Wait six months and watch the rest of the world see their currencies decline.  The US tends to be on the sharp end of fighting economic problems that usually find their way elsewhere in time.

The US is one of the bight spots in the global economy right now.  Problems yes, but not nearly as severe as most other countries.  Job growth is doing great, though wages aren't rising as fast as some would like.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/07/us-nonfarm-payrolls-june-2017.html

Quote

The U.S. job market roared back to life in June, with a better-than-expected 222,000 new positions created in June while the unemployment rate held at 4.4 percent, according to a government report Friday.

 

[AloisAmrein]

On 26.11.2016 at 7:02 AM, OJAS said:

Sounds to me more like a case of the USD rising against all other currencies rather than an across-the-board fall in the THB's value.

 

Regardless of whether or not the Fed decide to increase US interest rates, the jolly old GBP will doubtless still continue on its downward plunge towards parity with the THB in the run-up to Brexit.

The USD is falling against the Swiss Franc CHF. Actual exchange rate 1 USD = 0.96 CHF. It has been even lower a year ago.

[craigt3365]

Thailand just announced they some serious actions to prop up the Baht last week.  It was in the Bangkok Post.

[oldhippy]

After giving it a lot of thought, I came to the following conclusion:

The baht may remain as it is, it might become stronger, or possibly it will weaken.

 

Just wait for it to happen, next read the explanation by the experts.

[Ricardo]

On 08/07/2017 at 10:44 PM, SheungWan said:

One wonders from what planet some of these out of thin air confections masquerading as informed comment hails from.

 

Pehaps Faux News ?

 

While I would agree with IAMHERE   that there are likely to be further base-rate increases this year & next, I wonder what is his source for the apparent-belief that it's all politically-led, rather than just Yellen doing her job as she feels she should, when interest-rates have been deliberately held low for so very long ?

 

Scrapping NAFTA might be a shot-self-in-the-foot action, for example ?

 

But politicians have always liked to blame the technocrats, for not pursuing their own political-agendas, it just goes with the territory.

[Momofarang]

1 hour ago, oldhippy said:

After giving it a lot of thought, I came to the following conclusion:

The baht may remain as it is, it might become stronger, or possibly it will weaken.

 

Just wait for it to happen, next read the explanation by the experts.

So my UN pension might go up... or down?....

 

Unless of course I opt for the "two track" system with a THB/USD floor rate of THB 32. But then I must get my signature certified, every year, by some local AH.

 

You are right man. Do nothing!. 

[janclaes47]

2 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

Thailand just announced they some serious actions to prop up the Baht last week.  It was in the Bangkok Post.

 

I think they announced exactly the opposite.

 

BoT 'suppressed baht' to bolster exports: KBank