Thb vs. GBP/ USD redux

[meatboy]

On 27/12/2559 at 9:05 AM, meatboy said:

its the wrong time to gage the uk.pound with the bht.in over 36yrs.i have always known the gbp.to go down when the UK.ARE ON HOLLIDAYS.

this is scb.bank TT rate on 26th.dec. 43.69

                                                27th.dec. 43.66.

                                                28th.dec.43.73.someone pressed the wrong button.

                                                 29thdec.43.52.

                                                 30th.dec.43.43.

so the 5days leading up to the new,yrs.hollidays the baht. went down 26satang. moto DONT CHANGE BIG AMOUNTS DURING HOLL.TIMES AND WEEKENDS.

[Craig krup]

On 12/31/2016 at 1:04 PM, mogandave said:

 

Idi Amin was Thai? Who knew...

 

I can't speak for all companies, but we keep a zero balance account. 

 

Idi Amin was, as we all know, last king of the Scots. You do, though, take the point? Autocratic governments don't appreciate people constantly "taking money out of the country"?

[IMA_FARANG]

I have been here in the past when the Thai abht to the U.S. dollar rate was 25 Baht to a dollar.

In 2010 when i came to Thailand to retire, I recal the Bhat to dollar rate being around 30 Baht to a dollar.

I just got my pension today and the rate was 35.54 to a dollar.

 

I am not complaining therefore.

 

It always could be worse.

 

[Berkshire]

16 hours ago, IMA_FARANG said:

I have been here in the past when the Thai abht to the U.S. dollar rate was 25 Baht to a dollar.

In 2010 when i came to Thailand to retire, I recal the Bhat to dollar rate being around 30 Baht to a dollar.

I just got my pension today and the rate was 35.54 to a dollar.

 

I am not complaining therefore.

 

It always could be worse.

 

 

Yes, I remember them days not too long ago when the dollar dipped below 30 bt and many of us thought it was heading towards 25.  So at 35+, I'm quite content.

[meatboy]

On 2/1/2560 at 8:21 AM, meatboy said:

this is scb.bank TT rate on 26th.dec. 43.69

                                                27th.dec. 43.66.

                                                28th.dec.43.73.someone pressed the wrong button.

                                                 29thdec.43.52.

                                                 30th.dec.43.43.

so the 5days leading up to the new,yrs.hollidays the baht. went down 26satang. moto DONT CHANGE BIG AMOUNTS DURING HOLL.TIMES AND WEEKENDS.

hollidays are over,yesterday 43.41 today a little better so far,43.58. TT RATE.

[meatboy]

On 27/12/2559 at 9:05 AM, meatboy said:

its the wrong time to gage the uk.pound with the bht.in over 36yrs.i have always known the gbp.to go down when the UK.ARE ON HOLLIDAYS.

i see today the rate has jumped to 43.70 thats what it was before the thai hollidays.

now lets see what it is at close of play before the weekend starts.

[thaihome]

On 12/30/2016 at 10:42 PM, Craig krup said:

 

I don't know enough about it. Knowing that you don't know is a good place to be 

 

Thailand's tourist industry is a massive foreign exchange earner. So what happens to all that hard currency? How easy it is for Thais - and Thai corporations - to have non-Baht accounts? In Argentina, Zimbabwe and many other places you can price goods and services in dollars, and hold paper currency. You might not be able to open a dollar account - it might not be wise to (see Argentina and the seizure of dollar deposits) - but nobody actually stops you pricing in dollars and receiving payment in paper currency from the tourists.

 

I don't think that would fly in Thailand.  I'm guessing that everything's priced in Baht and they wouldn't tolerate anything else. The banks and currency exchanges hand over baht for dollars, euros and pounds. All that hard currency ends up as foreign reserves in the hands of the central bank.  The commercial banks (again I'm guessing) can't advance Baht and hold hard currency deposits on their own account, speculating on future falls in the Baht. So the volume of hard currency supporting the Baht is considerable. They've massive duties preventing - or disadvantaging - imports, and an "export" economy in tourism which sidesteps the retaliatory duties on goods imposed by other countries. 

 

Your understanding of economics is obviously very good,but you are making some incorrect assumptions about the Thai economy and currency controls that impact your conclusions. 

 

Thailand's biggest industry is not to tourism, but manufacturing for export  (and to a lessor degree domestic consumption). Currency controls do exist, but the THB is fully convertible to the point that foreign hard currency from tourism is meaningless. 

 

In the 15 or so years I have been here it seems to me the biggest impact to the THB exchange rate has been supply and demand fluctuations driven by foreign investment in the SET and other investment devices. When foreign investors are buying baht it strengthens (to invest in cash instruments), when they are selling, it weakens. The interest in Thai investments by foriegn funds is driven by forecasts of the Thai economy which is closely tied to the world economy and the demand for Thai exports. 

http://www.globicus.com/index.php/fx/1798-models/383-thai-baht-vs-thailand-s-set-50-index-equity-index

 

The THB weakness over the past two years I belive has been driven by the political instability that was forecasted to negatively  impact the SET after the coup. The SET has somewhat defied that forecast (after an initial negative impact). This means a foriegn investors that stuck it out after the coup has done well in SET over the last year and has not had to pay the price in what is the usual strengthening of the Baht.

 

My personal opinion is this will be recognized by foreign funds this year so expect some strengthening in the Baht this year, but not a lot. Will continue to trade in the 32 to 34 (USD) range this year. This excludes some major internal political development or some major worldwide situation that impacts demand for Thai exports or increases the price of oil.

TH 

 

 

[Craig krup]

3 hours ago, thaihome said:

 

Thailand's biggest industry is not to tourism, but manufacturing for export  (and to a lessor degree domestic consumption). Currency controls do exist, but the THB is fully convertible to the point that foreign hard currency from tourism is meaningless. 

 

 

Well, tourism could be 9% or 20%, depending on who you believe, and it's all hard currency. The exports of rice and fish are all pure hard currency earning, but a lot of other stuff included in the export total will have big inputs from abroad - I doubt Thailand's cars and electronics begin as Thai iron ore and oil.  

 

Of course the reason they're so keen on foreign direct investment is precisely because it's illiquid. Once you've built the plant there's no "flash crash" possible: you can't sell a car plant for Baht and turn the funds into dollars, or not easily at a price you'd want. 

Edited January 6, 2017 by Craig krup
Addition

[Cook my sock]

With the reported surprising economic results in uk, let's hope the £ gets a little stronger.
What's interesting about the Thai economy right now is the luxury market has pretty much crashed. Outlets are not paying their suppliers, and it's reaching crisis point - I know this from one of the biggest importers of luxury goods in Thailand

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Just now, thaihome said:

 

In the 15 or so years I have been here it seems to me the biggest impact to the THB exchange rate has been supply and demand fluctuations driven by foreign investment in the SET and other investment devices. When foreign investors are buying baht it strengthens (to invest in cash instruments), when they are selling, it weakens.

 

 

Yes that is correct, and, in the wake of the "big event" the Stock Exchange of Thailad SET has been going gangbusters.  In the first two days of trade this year it is hitting new highs just under 1600.

 

Bloombergs, Sachs, Blackrock and others have identified the Emerging Markets as on of the best plays for 2017.

 

You can watch real time price quotes for currency, Thai ETFs and Shares, and world markets on the following page:

 

Live Price Quotes

 

If you think that the SET is already way ahead of itself, you can learn how to short sell it here:

 

How to Short Sell the Thai Stock Market

 

 

 

 

[thaihome]

2 hours ago, Craig krup said:

 

Well, tourism could be 9% or 20%, depending on who you believe, and it's all hard currency. The exports of rice and fish are all pure hard currency earning, but a lot of other stuff included in the export total will have big inputs from abroad - I doubt Thailand's cars and electronics begin as Thai iron ore and oil.  

 

Of course the reason they're so keen on foreign direct investment is precisely because it's illiquid. Once you've built the plant there's no "flash crash" possible: you can't sell a car plant for Baht and turn the funds into dollars, or not easily at a price you'd want. 

I've been having this discussion with people like you who think Thailand's economy is entirely dependent on tourism and rice for a long time. I suggest you do some research on the the manufacturing sector and see what actually drives the economy here. It is automotive, electronic, and white goods manufacturing that leads the way. That dwarfs tourism and agriculture.

 

I was not refering to FDI,  I was discussing foriegn investment by international funds in  Thai liquid  investments such has the SET and various bonds issued by Thai multinationals such as PTT or CPP. Did you look at the link I posted that shows the historical  correlation between the SET and USD/THB fx rate?

 

Please explain what "hard currency" means in an fully convertible currency world we live in today.

TH

  

[Craig krup]

6 minutes ago, thaihome said:

I've been having this discussion with people like you who think Thailand's economy is entirely dependent on tourism and rice for a long time. I suggest you do some research on the the manufacturing sector and see what actually drives the economy here. It is automotive, electronic, and white goods manufacturing that leads the way. That dwarfs tourism and agriculture.

 

I was not refering to FDI,  I was discussing foriegn investment by international funds in  Thai liquid  investments such has the SET and various bonds issued by Thai multinationals such as PTT or CPP. Did you look at the link I posted that shows the historical  correlation between the SET and USD/THB fx rate?

 

Please explain what "hard currency" means in an fully convertible currency world we live in today.

TH

  

 

I did have a look at the graph. You take my point that the total value of exports isn't the total foreign currency earning for Thailand - Japanese engines and gearboxes are included in the selling price of cars exported out of Thailand, but that isn't foreign currency earnings for the kingdom. I'm sure demand for Baht is driven by the desire to purchase (or sell) shares, bonds and baht-denominated financial instruments, particularly because a lot of the demand chugs along year on year and the difference - the marginal buyer or seller - is the hot money investor. That fact/problem is, as I say, precisely the reason they want foreign direct investment

 

As to "hard currency", the Baht isn't fully convertible, it isn't a reserve currency for any central bank, it isn't used by the IMF as a store of value for interventions, it does require higher interest rates and bond yields to support it...and so on, and so on, and so on. The Ringgit and Baht ain't the Swiss Franc and Dollar. 

[meatboy]

19 hours ago, meatboy said:

i see today the rate has jumped to 43.70 thats what it was before the thai hollidays.

now lets see what it is at close of play before the weekend starts.

all my info is from SCB BANK TT rates.from 8am.to 5pm.all info the same 43.70. close of play yes down to 43.67.

[chiang mai]

The OP asks, what is the likely direction of THB against USD:

The basic premise: sell USD and buy THB and the Thai Baht strengthens; sell THB against any currency and THB weakens. So who/what are the key entities who buy/sell THB?

THOSE WHO BUY THB (make it stronger):

Tourism (which historically has experienced a year on year increase but is now faltering)

Overseas investors (think SET and capital inflows (see below))

Exporters (over 80% of exports are paid for in USD and capital controls require(d) it be exchanged into THB – twenty years ago this conversion represented  almost 95% of all foreign currency receipts, today it is about 60%).  http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=614&language=eng

BOT (think managed float and substantial foreign currency reserves)

 

THOSE  WHO SELL THB (make it weaker):

Thai holders of overseas denominated debt

Importers (who must buy foreign currency to settle import bills) http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=833&language=ENG

Overseas investors (think SET and capital outflows (below))

BOT (think managed float)

Capital Inflows/Outflows

In a perfect economic world Thai capital inflows and outflows would be evenly matched, currently they are not. For the past few years capital inflows have surged as overseas investors chased yield, today inflows are reverting to outflows as the US Fed increases interest rates and a new administration promises higher rates of growth.

During periods of high capital inflows the value of THB surges because the currency is in demand, historically BOT has controlled this surge by 1) selling THB and buying foreign currency using foreign currency reserves, and,  2) relaxation of capital controls which allow Thai companies and nationals to sell THB against foreign currencies. The very clear trend is for BOT to relax currency controls as a tool to manage THB value, over and above the use of foreign currency reserves.

 

BOT and ASEAN

BOT is required to manage THB, amongst other things, against a basket of ASEAN currencies.

 

From the above:

Tourist numbers have weakened slightly; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals.

Capital outflows have increased; http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/thai-baht-plunges-6-year-low-capital-market-outflow-dollar-strength-1511130

Capital controls have been relaxed; http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/thai-central-bank-relaxes-curbs-on-capital-flows-to-weaken-strong-baht

Exports continue to out value imports but not massively; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade.

ASEAN currencies have weakened against USD.http://www.wsj.com/articles/asia-currencies-fall-against-the-u-s-dollar-1479090860

 

Conclusion: THB will continue to fall against USD, whether it falls against The Pound will depend on Brexit negotiations and outcome, in the short term GBP is expected to weaken against THB. One modelled view of THB/USD is here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency/forecast

[meatboy]

On 6/1/2560 at 10:24 AM, meatboy said:

i see today the rate has jumped to 43.70 thats what it was before the thai hollidays.

now lets see what it is at close of play before the weekend starts.

all my info is from SCB BANK TT rates.from 8am.to 5pm.all info the same 43.70. close of play yes down to 43.67.

as i have put on hold changing gbp.till it recovers a bit, can you CM explain what is brexit.

my pensions ect.is sitting in a uk.bank making nowt,i can manage for a few yrs.on interest made in thailand without touching capitol so is the baht goner go up or the interest rates get better.

who got that crystal ball?

[chiang mai]

34 minutes ago, meatboy said:

all my info is from SCB BANK TT rates.from 8am.to 5pm.all info the same 43.70. close of play yes down to 43.67.

as i have put on hold changing gbp.till it recovers a bit, can you CM explain what is brexit.

my pensions ect.is sitting in a uk.bank making nowt,i can manage for a few yrs.on interest made in thailand without touching capitol so is the baht goner go up or the interest rates get better.

who got that crystal ball?

 

The negotiations between the UK and the EU regarding how the UK will exit the EU and what the UK trading position will look like in the future - a hard Brexit (meaning the UK gives up all access to the single market and retains full rights to border and immigration controls) is forecast, by some, to lead to a weaker Pound, in the short term at least.

[meatboy]

6 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

The negotiations between the UK and the EU regarding how the UK will exit the EU and what the UK trading position will look like in the future - a hard Brexit (meaning the UK gives up all access to the single market and retains full rights to border and immigration controls) is forecast, by some, to lead to a weaker Pound, in the short term at least.

just what i am thinking and trying to convince the wife,last 2yrs.i have received 49.5.and last may just short of 51.

so changing a wack at say 44 is a hard pill to swallow.but to ease the loss it can go into a fixed no tax deducted acc.paying 1.80%

so i got 4weeks to decide. as i have said before my budget on spending was set at 42bht.to the gbp.all above is a bonus.

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, meatboy said:

just what i am thinking and trying to convince the wife,last 2yrs.i have received 49.5.and last may just short of 51.

so changing a wack at say 44 is a hard pill to swallow.but to ease the loss it can go into a fixed no tax deducted acc.paying 1.80%

so i got 4weeks to decide. as i have said before my budget on spending was set at 42bht.to the gbp.all above is a bonus.

 

If you can afford to do it then putting that money into USD might be a safer bet, GBP strength over the next twelve months looks very uncertain. But putting it into THB at 1.8% is better than nothing, at least it will help you keep somewhat up with inflation although not completely. If it helps any I've got stagnant Pounds sat in the UK that have been earning zero for quite some time hence you're not alone.

[meatboy]

19 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

If you can afford to do it then putting that money into USD might be a safer bet, GBP strength over the next twelve months looks very uncertain. But putting it into THB at 1.8% is better than nothing, at least it will help you keep somewhat up with inflation although not completely. If it helps any I've got stagnant Pounds sat in the UK that have been earning zero for quite some time hence you're not alone.

thanks CM i got to CON - VINCE THE WIFE now into my thinking which is not easy.

might have to take her to the gold shop.

[alfieconn]

20 hours ago, meatboy said:

just what i am thinking and trying to convince the wife,last 2yrs.i have received 49.5.and last may just short of 51.

so changing a wack at say 44 is a hard pill to swallow.but to ease the loss it can go into a fixed no tax deducted acc.paying 1.80%

so i got 4weeks to decide. as i have said before my budget on spending was set at 42bht.to the gbp.all above is a bonus.

 

If doing it now is not going to hurt you, why are you hanging around ? get it done, then you can stop worrying about it and get on with your life, just because it was at 50 a while ago is no reason not to do it at 43 ish.

 

As for people asking people on here, i wouldn't listen too much as no one really knows what is go to happen in the future not even the so called experts in the City,the same people who sit around 8 hrs a day long looking at screens etc etc and who's livelihood is from making money on the foreign exchange markets.

Edited January 8, 2017 by alfieconn

[thaihome]

On 1/7/2017 at 9:12 AM, chiang mai said:

The OP asks, what is the likely direction of THB against USD:

 

The basic premise: sell USD and buy THB and the Thai Baht strengthens; sell THB against any currency and THB weakens. So who/what are the key entities who buy/sell THB?

 

THOSE WHO BUY THB (make it stronger):

 

Tourism (which historically has experienced a year on year increase but is now faltering)

 

Overseas investors (think SET and capital inflows (see below))

 

Exporters (over 80% of exports are paid for in USD and capital controls require(d) it be exchanged into THB – twenty years ago this conversion represented  almost 95% of all foreign currency receipts, today it is about 60%).  http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=614&language=eng

 

BOT (think managed float and substantial foreign currency reserves)

 

 

THOSE  WHO SELL THB (make it weaker):

 

Thai holders of overseas denominated debt

 

Importers (who must buy foreign currency to settle import bills) http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=833&language=ENG

 

Overseas investors (think SET and capital outflows (below))

 

BOT (think managed float)

 

 

Capital Inflows/Outflows

 

 

In a perfect economic world Thai capital inflows and outflows would be evenly matched, currently they are not. For the past few years capital inflows have surged as overseas investors chased yield, today inflows are reverting to outflows as the US Fed increases interest rates and a new administration promises higher rates of growth.

 

During periods of high capital inflows the value of THB surges because the currency is in demand, historically BOT has controlled this surge by 1) selling THB and buying foreign currency using foreign currency reserves, and,  2) relaxation of capital controls which allow Thai companies and nationals to sell THB against foreign currencies. The very clear trend is for BOT to relax currency controls as a tool to manage THB value, over and above the use of foreign currency reserves.

 

 

BOT and ASEAN

 

BOT is required to manage THB, amongst other things, against a basket of ASEAN currencies.

 

 

From the above:

 

Tourist numbers have weakened slightly; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals.

 

Capital outflows have increased; http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/thai-baht-plunges-6-year-low-capital-market-outflow-dollar-strength-1511130

 

Capital controls have been relaxed; http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/thai-central-bank-relaxes-curbs-on-capital-flows-to-weaken-strong-baht

 

Exports continue to out value imports but not massively; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade.

 

ASEAN currencies have weakened against USD.http://www.wsj.com/articles/asia-currencies-fall-against-the-u-s-dollar-1479090860

 

 

Conclusion: THB will continue to fall against USD, whether it falls against The Pound will depend on Brexit negotiations and outcome, in the short term GBP is expected to weaken against THB. One modelled view of THB/USD is here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency/forecast

 

I agree with your analysis of what are the various drivers for THB fx fluctuations.  I do disagree with your conclusion that it will weaken this year. One major reason for that is your IBTimes article on record setting capital outflows is dated July 2015 when the SET was in the middle of a serious negative correction due to perceived political instability due to the coup.  The impact of that capital outflow is almost 2 years past now.

 

Note from my link in earlier post the SET had a pretty good 2016 but there has not been the corresponding rise in Baht.  I think this lag is due to lack of foriegn participation in the SET rise and the corresponding demand for baht. I think that will be corrected in 2017. It's a real opportunity to be able to buy into a rising stock market with a potentially undervalued currency.

 

 Again, it really all depends on the world economy and the demand for Thai exports and the continuing bullish SET. The THB does not exist in a vacuum.

TH 

[chiang mai]

37 minutes ago, thaihome said:

I agree with your analysis of what are the various drivers for THB fx fluctuations.  I do disagree with your conclusion that it will weaken this year. One major reason for that is your IBTimes article on record setting capital outflows is dated July 2015 when the SET was in the middle of a serious negative correction due to perceived political instability due to the coup.  The impact of that capital outflow is almost 2 years past now.

 

Note from my link in earlier post the SET had a pretty good 2016 but there has not been the corresponding rise in Baht.  I think this lag is due to lack of foriegn participation in the SET rise and the corresponding demand for baht. I think that will be corrected in 2017. It's a real opportunity to be able to buy into a rising stock market with a potentially undervalued currency.

 

 Again, it really all depends on the world economy and the demand for Thai exports and the continuing bullish SET. The THB does not exist in a vacuum.

TH 

 

I couldn't find much that was recent on Thai capital outflows and indeed the link I posted is dated, so I'm perfectly happy to accept an alternate scenario. Having said that I note that the 90 day trend shows a very clear weakening of THB against USD and I can't think of what we might see during 1H17 that might cause that to reverse, not with a new isolationist POTUS coming on board and a Fed that is increasing interest rates, if you have ideas on this I'll be keen to hear them. And yes, the SET has had a good run but there again so have many other exchanges but that's not going to last forever, the point is though that there's fewer reasons today why overseas investors should look to the SET for equity investments over and above say the FTSE, a tsunami of capital inflows therefore doesn't seem to be on the horizon.

 

It's perhaps also worth pointing out that China has spent some USD 40 billion of its vast store of foreign currency reserves  on supporting the Yuan and that they, like Thailand, have now moved to a policy of relaxing currency controls over spending hard earned cash to protect their currency. 

 

Mostly though I wanted to just put up a straw man for posters to modify or contribute to rather than continue reading the banal theoretical and airy fairy points that were being raised. I also posted the piece in the hope that some others would read it perhaps gain a better understanding of what is involved in currency movements.

[William Osborne]

Unfortunately, on my last contract I was paid in UK pounds...normally get paid in USD .. i would have used them to fund my living expenses here for this year as i think workfront is going to be very quiet(O&G).. but exchange is just too bad atm...even using a baseline of 50.... so for now, as required, I'm cashing in fixed deposit/mutual funds that I have here in Thailand and have invested all my pounds into FTSE index fund/ blue-chips back in Europe... hoping that it will bounce back along with some capital gains...

[chiang mai]

On 30/12/2016 at 10:42 PM, Craig krup said:

 

I don't know enough about it. Knowing that you don't know is a good place to be 

 

Thailand's tourist industry is a massive foreign exchange earner. So what happens to all that hard currency? How easy it is for Thais - and Thai corporations - to have non-Baht accounts? In Argentina, Zimbabwe and many other places you can price goods and services in dollars, and hold paper currency. You might not be able to open a dollar account - it might not be wise to (see Argentina and the seizure of dollar deposits) - but nobody actually stops you pricing in dollars and receiving payment in paper currency from the tourists.

 

I don't think that would fly in Thailand.  I'm guessing that everything's priced in Baht and they wouldn't tolerate anything else. The banks and currency exchanges hand over baht for dollars, euros and pounds. All that hard currency ends up as foreign reserves in the hands of the central bank.  The commercial banks (again I'm guessing) can't advance Baht and hold hard currency deposits on their own account, speculating on future falls in the Baht. So the volume of hard currency supporting the Baht is considerable. They've massive duties preventing - or disadvantaging - imports, and an "export" economy in tourism which sidesteps the retaliatory duties on goods imposed by other countries. 

 

Every major bank in Thailand offers multi-currency accounts, they are widely available and there are hardly any restrictions on opening such accounts - the ability of Thai nationals to invest overseas is foreign currencies is also increasing as BOT relaxes foreign currency controls.

 

 

[YeahSiam]

Looks like Theresa May's comments on Britain's inability to take the bits of the EU it likes while chucking the bits it doesn't like is getting sterling smoked all over again.

$1.21400 as I type and it's heading lower.

People are going to have to start accepting, once and for all, that Britain isn't going to get a deal like the Danes.

Out is out

Edited January 9, 2017 by YeahSiam

[chiang mai]

23 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

Looks like Theresa May's comments on Britain's inability to take the bits of the EU it likes while chucking the bits it doesn't like is getting sterling smoked all over again.

$1.21400 as I type and it's heading lower.

People are going to have to start accepting, once and for all, that Britain isn't going to get a deal like the Danes.

Out is out

 

Yup, and GBP/THB will be following the vapour trail very shortly, UOB just pencilled in 42.

[chiang mai]

An interesting piece here with a different perspective than just the Big Mac Index which argues the Pound is overvalued by 25 to 30%. No, that wasn't a typo!

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-08/going-beyond-big-mac-index-shows-nyc-latte-lovers-short-changed

[meatboy]

15 hours ago, chiang mai said:

An interesting piece here with a different perspective than just the Big Mac Index which argues the Pound is overvalued by 25 to 30%. No, that wasn't a typo!

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-08/going-beyond-big-mac-index-shows-nyc-latte-lovers-short-changed

looks like the B.O.T.has read this,the pound is down 50satang on the first round. TT RATE 42.76.yesterdays close 43.26.

[alfieconn]

2 hours ago, meatboy said:

looks like the B.O.T.has read this,the pound is down 50satang on the first round. TT RATE 42.76.yesterdays close 43.26.

 

How could it have closed at that price when chiang mai had it at 

Quote

UOB just pencilled in 42.

 

[KhunBENQ]

The bank TT rates as of this morning are between 42.77 to 43.02.

Why argue about data that is easy available.

https://daytodaydata.net/

 

18 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

Yup, and GBP/THB will be following the vapour trail very shortly, UOB just pencilled in 42.

When giving numbers specify as exactly where (which bank) and when you found it and WHAT TYPE of rate you mean (cash/notes or TT, CC rates etc.).

 

42.00? is not a TT rate of yesterday or today in Thailand.

Cash rates of certain banks are exceptionally bad.

UOB, SCB and Kasikorn among the worst.

See link above.