Thb vs. GBP/ USD redux

[watcharacters]

 

 

 

What are you seeing now?    The forecasts suggest a weakening of the THB but I doubt that's how many on this forum see it.

 

 

What strength do you see the baht having?

[YeahSiam]

Not so much the baht strengthening as sterling weakening.

We could very realistically see 40 baht to the pound in 2017.

[lungbing]

Remoaner are we?

[lannarebirth]

Long term, when the line is turned up and USD:THB  price is above the line, it is weakening. The reverse is true when line is turned down and price is below it.

 

 

Quote

http://finance.yahoo.com/chart/USDTHB%3DX#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%3D

 

 

Chart is interactive.

 

 

Edited December 26, 2016 by lannarebirth

[chiang mai]

7 hours ago, lungbing said:

Remoaner are we?

 

He's simply stating FOREX fact:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/04/sterling-is-at-a-31-year-low---can-it-fall-further/

 

 

[Henryford]

5 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

He's simply stating FOREX fact:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/04/sterling-is-at-a-31-year-low---can-it-fall-further/

 

 

 

It's not a fact just an opinion. The Pound could just as easily go up as down. Anyone who says they know what will happen is lying.

Edited December 27, 2016 by Henryford

[chiang mai]

35 minutes ago, Henryford said:

 

It's not a fact just an opinion. The Pound could just as easily go up as down. Anyone who says they know what will happen is lying.

 

Nobody is stating what will happen in the future. What is being stated as fact is that the Pound has weakened in value, that is what the previous poster said, that is what the Telegraph article said, that is not opinion it's fact!

[meatboy]

its the wrong time to gage the uk.pound with the bht.in over 36yrs.i have always known the gbp.to go down when the UK.ARE ON HOLLIDAYS.

[chiang mai]

Here's the one year picture:

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1Y

[hugh2121]

20 minutes ago, meatboy said:

its the wrong time to gage the uk.pound with the bht.in over 36yrs.i have always known the gbp.to go down when the UK.ARE ON HOLLIDAYS.

Or vote to leave the EU.

[hugh2121]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

 

It's not a fact just an opinion. The Pound could just as easily go up as down. Anyone who says they know what will happen is lying.

The £ fell 18% when the UK voted to leave EU - FACT

UK imports more than it exports - FACT

The price of imports is rising due to the weakened £ - FACT

Inflation is rising and will continue to rise due to the weakened £ - FACT

Who will be first to start moaning when they can't afford their usual (imported) luxuries and blame the government?

[YeahSiam]

1 minute ago, hugh2121 said:

The £ fell 18% when the UK voted to leave EU - FACT

UK imports more than it exports - FACT

The price of imports is rising due to the weakened £ - FACT

Inflation is rising and will continue to rise due to the weakened £ - FACT

Who will be first to start moaning when they can't afford their usual (imported) luxuries and blame the government?

 

I found it amusing that so many cheered the weakening of the pound because it was good for our piddling "exports" but, just a few months later, those same people are now carping because the prices of imported goods (oil, cars, food) have risen.

The global currency "race to the bottom" will continue.

 

 

[Kwasaki]

[12DrinkMore]

41 minutes ago, hugh2121 said:

The £ fell 18% when the UK voted to leave EU - FACT

UK imports more than it exports - FACT

The price of imports is rising due to the weakened £ - FACT

Inflation is rising and will continue to rise due to the weakened £ - FACT

Who will be first to start moaning when they can't afford their usual (imported) luxuries and blame the government?

 

It will be all those on TV who can no longer afford a Chang draft in happy hour.

[Suradit69]

2 hours ago, meatboy said:

the gbp.to go down when the UK.ARE ON HOLLIDAYS.

 

Quite a long "holliday" [sic].

 

 

[almodeller]

What currency exchange rate in £ sterling does immigration use to calculate the required 65,000 Thai baht needed per month?

[YeahSiam]

1 hour ago, almodeller said:

What currency exchange rate in £ sterling does immigration use to calculate the required 65,000 Thai baht needed per month?

They don't.

They just stipulate 65,000.

It's up to the pensioner to work out how many pounds, dollars, euros etc he/she needs to buy that amount of baht.

[almodeller]

I will rephrase the question does anyone know what currency exchange website  the Thai Immigration services uses to calculate the correct currency to achieve the required amount such as xrates.com, bankerexchangerates.com, expedia.com etc ? 

[watcharacters]

12 minutes ago, almodeller said:

I will rephrase the question does anyone know what currency exchange website  the Thai Immigration services uses to calculate the correct currency to achieve the required amount such as xrates.com, bankerexchangerates.com, expedia.com etc ? 

 

 

That's certainly a fair and possibly important question but I'd dare say it likely  depends on the particular immigration office as  often they seem to establish individual rules and policies.

[YeahSiam]

3 hours ago, watcharacters said:

 

 

That's certainly a fair and possibly important question but I'd dare say it likely  depends on the particular immigration office as  often they seem to establish individual rules and policies.

 

It very well may be an important question but as exchange rates are continually fluctuating, they can't be expected to keep on top of it day to day or they'd be forever publishing amended guides, wouldn't they?

It's not their business how many units of foreign currency are necessary to meet the criteria for a retirement visa.

[watcharacters]

5 hours ago, YeahSiam said:

They don't.

They just stipulate 65,000.

It's up to the pensioner to work out how many pounds, dollars, euros etc he/she needs to buy that amount of baht.

 

So are you saying the pensioner can just put down any figure he wants to achieve the required 65K THB per month?    

 

Doesn't immigration ask for some kind  of validation?

 

I think what the poster was  wondering is  do they tend to use a particular website   for  converting foreign currency into THB.     I've never dealt with the income thing.

[YeahSiam]

1 minute ago, watcharacters said:

 

So are you saying the pensioner can just put down any figure he wants to achieve the required 65K THB per month?    

 

Doesn't immigration ask for some kind  of validation?

 

I think what the poster was  wondering is  do they tend to use a particular website   for  converting foreign currency into THB.     I've never dealt with the income thing.

 

OK I see but, nevertheless, if the difference between Bangkok Bank's and, say, Kasikorn Bank's official exchange rate on the day is the difference between someone qualifying or not qualifying for an extension, he should really be re-evaluating his situation.

[chiang mai]

A bank letter is required to confirm the balances and that must be dated within (usually) 24 hours of the application, the bank letter states the account(s) balance(s), totals them and displays them in THB and USD equivalents using that banks exchange rate for said currency, on that date.

Where US self certification is used, all numbers are fluid and discretionary.

Edited December 27, 2016 by chiang mai

[watcharacters]

5 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

 

OK I see but, nevertheless, if the difference between Bangkok Bank's and, say, Kasikorn Bank's official exchange rate on the day is the difference between someone qualifying or not qualifying for an extension, he should really be re-evaluating his situation.

 

I couldn't agree more, YeahSiam.     I wouldn't be able to  sleep at night if I lived so closely to the edge.    But again, to each his own.

[Baerboxer]

9 hours ago, hugh2121 said:

The £ fell 18% when the UK voted to leave EU - FACT

UK imports more than it exports - FACT

The price of imports is rising due to the weakened £ - FACT

Inflation is rising and will continue to rise due to the weakened £ - FACT

Who will be first to start moaning when they can't afford their usual (imported) luxuries and blame the government?

 

Can you please provide details of the 18% fall? 

 

AFAIR the initial drop was around 12% against the dollar. Reducing in further steps to the 120 - 125 where it sits now.

 

The affects have not really filtered through to the economy fully yet. Yep, things will get worse - imports costing more, rising inflation, weakening pound. Especially as the Tory government seems clueless, without a real plan and divided on what the objectives are. With no real opposition with an intelligent input things don't bode well.

 

And all because some clowns stoked up racist emotions and lied about figures with false promises.

 

 

 

 

[chiang mai]

8 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Can you please provide details of the 18% fall? 

 

AFAIR the initial drop was around 12% against the dollar. Reducing in further steps to the 120 - 125 where it sits now.

 

The affects have not really filtered through to the economy fully yet. Yep, things will get worse - imports costing more, rising inflation, weakening pound. Especially as the Tory government seems clueless, without a real plan and divided on what the objectives are. With no real opposition with an intelligent input things don't bode well.

 

And all because some clowns stoked up racist emotions and lied about figures with false promises.

 

 

 

 

 

Can you please quantify in percentage terms  those further reducing steps?

[mogandave]

Would not it be more appropriate to track the pound agains the euro?

 

I

[GOLDBUGGY]

The THB held Interest Rates Unchanged, which is support for the Thai Baht. What you might want to keep and eye on though is the price of Oil. Thailand is a major Importer of Oil and thus a high price hurts the Economy. Although this helps Rubber Prices and the AUD and CAD Dollars.

 

The USD is strong and it will remain strong for the time being. I expect it to remain unchanged. 

 

With the GBP, I believe that the planned exit from the EU caused an overkill of this currency. The fear of the unknown, which markets don't like. I expect to hold and even go up some against the THB and other major currencies.  

[mogandave]

I expect  the GBP to hold against the USD, and the EUR & THB to head south.

 

But if I knew what the market was going to do I would be rich, and certainly would not be telling anyone...

[chiang mai]

My guess:

 

GBP to weaken, THB to remain flat, GBP/USD circa 1.20 - mid 2017, GBP value to depend on soft or hard Brexit news, if hard, further weakening to be expected, circa 1.17 dooable.

 

Five years hence, GBP/THB sub 40.

Edited December 27, 2016 by chiang mai