UK in 2030: older, more unequal and blighted by Brexit, report predicts

[elliss]

 

    Predictions  for  2030, are impossible .     With  so  much  uncertainty in the  UK , and the wider World   looking back over the last twelve mounths , the present UK and World wide situation was not on the cards,

        Any  predictions  for  2017 ,

  A World war ,  Brexit actually happening ,  Corbyn  new PM .??

   

      

             

       

       

Edited December 31, 2016 by elliss

[SheungWan]

5 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

I love the way people repeatedly keep coming up with these doom and gloom scenarios for the UK when the future of the EU itself doesn't look particularly that greatthe EU won't make it until 2030

 

Why the EU Is Doomed

 

 

https://mises.org/blog/why-eu-doomed

 

 

Always good to see links provided to the second-rate websites on the internet that so enthuses some people and in this case one based in the leading academic intellectual hothouse of Alabama.

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, elliss said:

 

    Predictions  for  2030, are impossible .     With  so  much  uncertainty in the  UK , and the wider World   looking back over the last twelve mounths , the present UK and World wide situation was not on the cards,

        Any  predictions  for  2017 ,

  A World war ,  Brexit actually happening ,  Corbyn  new PM .??

 

Predictions are difficult but projections and plans do have to be made. 2030 is not so far away. 13 years is not such a big jump and well within planning requirements.

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

You need to direct this toward Grouse. He was (rather creatively) trying to argue that the FTSE has fallen. I was merely correcting him.

 

First of all there is the difference between real and nominal figures and secondly, for a more accurate reflection of company activity in the UK, the FTSE 250 is probably a better fit.

[Scott]

Please keep the discussion civil.  Condescending remarks are going to earn suspensions.  

 

You have been warned.  

[SaintLouisBlues]

6 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Predictions are difficult but projections and plans do have to be made. 2030 is not so far away. 13 years is not such a big jump and well within planning requirements.

Are you forgetting Harold Wilson's famous dictum "A week is a long time in politics"? If you want to see the accuracy of predictions from only a year ago a number of newspapers included a retrospective of 2016 predictions in their year-end editions. Here's the 2015 retrospective and 2016 predictions in the Financial Times - https://www.ft.com/content/c699fbcc-b0a3-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250

Predictions are usually extrapolations and take no account of disruptive events

[7by7]

19 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

You need to direct this toward Grouse. He was (rather creatively) trying to argue that the FTSE has fallen. I was merely correcting him.

 

Like Grouse, I was pointing out to you the reasons why the FTSE 100 has risen and that it is not due purely to Brexit but has a lot to do with the fall of Sterling against the USD and is also not necessarily a good thing!

Edited January 1, 2017 by 7by7

[jpinx]

9 hours ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Are you forgetting Harold Wilson's famous dictum "A week is a long time in politics"? If you want to see the accuracy of predictions from only a year ago a number of newspapers included a retrospective of 2016 predictions in their year-end editions. Here's the 2015 retrospective and 2016 predictions in the Financial Times - https://www.ft.com/content/c699fbcc-b0a3-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250

Predictions are usually extrapolations and take no account of disruptive events

I seem to remember him presiding over a devaluation and he assured everyone that it would not affect "the Pound in your Pocket".  And then there was the little matter of decimalisation effectively being a devaluation.  So -- hands up if you know who to believe?

[SaintLouisBlues]

8 minutes ago, jpinx said:

I seem to remember him presiding over a devaluation and he assured everyone that it would not affect "the Pound in your Pocket".  And then there was the little matter of decimalisation effectively being a devaluation.  So -- hands up if you know who to believe?

Belief takes too much effort - it's like having opinions that don't have hard facts to support them - ATFH

[7by7]

The main thing I remember about decimalisation was that overnight blackjacks went from 4 for 1d to four for 1p!

 

2.4 times as expensive!

Edited January 1, 2017 by 7by7
Correct typo

[Alan Deer]

It would seem by the replies on this thread that post Brexit UK is already in a complete mess.

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, Alan Deer said:

It would seem by the replies on this thread that post Brexit UK is already in a complete mess.

 

No Alan. The internet arguments about brexit are a complete mess. The UK is doing fine, and will continue to do fine. Of course, every time there is an economic fart, or the price of custard changes (thanks for that one jpinx), the internet arguments will become an even bigger mess .

[Alan Deer]

It's all very well as homming these reports but I've yet to see a single report that says or predicts the UK will do better from Brexit...either from the left or the right.

 

What is certain though is at present the UK is a shambles and it's  down to Brexit.

[Alan Deer]

It would seem a lot of Brexiters are taking a head in the sand attitude to the effects of Brexit. The immediate effects are already manifest, but 2017 will see more chaos...if Brexit is allowed to go through....and I think it looks less likely  as time passes...... The results for UK will be more and more profound as time passes...and they will be beyond doubt negative for the people of Britain ... England in particular.

No amount of buck passing or blaming exterior forces can detract from the fact that for the next couple if decades Brexit will have a negative effect on all aspects of the UK...economic, social, labour, constitutional, the Union, fiscal, foreign influence..you name it, the effect will be negative. On the bright  side it is unlikely the MoR electorate will stand for this.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Alan Deer

[billd766]

2 hours ago, Alan Deer said:

It would seem a lot of Brexiters are taking a head in the sand attitude to the effects of Brexit. The immediate effects are already manifest, but 2017 will see more chaos...if Brexit is allowed to go through....and I think it looks less likely  as time passes...... The results for UK will be more and more profound as time passes...and they will be beyond doubt negative for the people of Britain ... England in particular.

No amount of buck passing or blaming exterior forces can detract from the fact that for the next couple if decades Brexit will have a negative effect on all aspects of the UK...economic, social, labour, constitutional, the Union, fiscal, foreign influence..you name it, the effect will be negative. On the bright  side it is unlikely the MoR electorate will stand for this.

 

Part of the problem is that is just speculation and nothing else.

 

Nobody can really predict what will happen in 2017 no matter what the "experts" say and they have been proven wrong before many times.

 

The prime example was the Brexit referendum itself. 90% of the experts said that it will fail and will never happen.

 

If they couldn't even get that right how can anyone believe that they can predict 13 years into the future?

 

Will 2017 be better or worse than 2016? For some people yes, and for others, no.

 

In 2020 with the EU be the same as it is now, stronger, weaker, better. worse or will it even still exist then or perhaps renamed Eurostan?

 

Correct answers to be typed in capitals on the head of a pin and sent to [email protected].

[Khun Han]

20 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

Like Grouse, I was pointing out to you the reasons why the FTSE 100 has risen and that it is not due purely to Brexit but has a lot to do with the fall of Sterling against the USD and is also not necessarily a good thing!

 

Grouse was trying to argua that the FTSE 100 has fallen. It hasn't.

 

From your quote taken from the Indy article:

:

"Furthermore, to get a better indication of the UK economy, it is helpful to look at the FTSE 250, or the 250 biggest companies in the UK, which is more dependent on the UK economy than the multinational companies represented in the FTSE 100.

The FTSE 250 fell 13 per cent in two days after the vote came in. It has recovered a little since then, but not on the scale of the FTSE 100"

 

Here is a link to a greaph of FTSE 250 performance over recent years:

 

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices.html?index=MCX

 

As can be clearly seen, it spent the first half of 2015 rising, then fell steadily up until the referendum, when it fell sharply. Within a month, it was back to it's pre-referendum levels.It's now back to near it's May 2015 high, briefly passing that high in October.

 

So the Indy article is quite misleading (no surprise there) in trying to paint a picture of the FTSE 250 not performing well (and thus the economy not doing so well), when the FTSE 250 is actually doing fine (and so is the economy).

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

5 hours ago, Alan Deer said:

It would seem a lot of Brexiters are taking a head in the sand attitude to the effects of Brexit. The immediate effects are already manifest, but 2017 will see more chaos...if Brexit is allowed to go through....and I think it looks less likely  as time passes...... The results for UK will be more and more profound as time passes...and they will be beyond doubt negative for the people of Britain ... England in particular.

No amount of buck passing or blaming exterior forces can detract from the fact that for the next couple if decades Brexit will have a negative effect on all aspects of the UK...economic, social, labour, constitutional, the Union, fiscal, foreign influence..you name it, the effect will be negative. On the bright  side it is unlikely the MoR electorate will stand for this.

 

Part of the problem is that is just speculation and nothing else.

 

Nobody can really predict what will happen in 2017 no matter what the "experts" say and they have been proven wrong before many times.

 

The prime example was the Brexit referendum itself. 90% of the experts said that it will fail and will never happen.

 

If they couldn't even get that right how can anyone believe that they can predict 13 years into the future?

 

Will 2017 be better or worse than 2016? For some people yes, and for others, no.

 

In 2020 with the EU be the same as it is now, stronger, weaker, better. worse or will it even still exist then or perhaps renamed Eurostan?

 

Correct answers to be typed in capitals on the head of a pin and sent to [email protected].

 

And don't forget, Bill, that these 'experts' predicted that the UK economy would spiral into oblivion immediately after a brexit vote. And they continued with their negative predictions for several months, until they realised that they had egg all over their faces, and had to admit that they'd been wrong.

[Khun Han]

5 hours ago, Alan Deer said:

It would seem a lot of Brexiters are taking a head in the sand attitude to the effects of Brexit. The immediate effects are already manifest, but 2017 will see more chaos...if Brexit is allowed to go through....and I think it looks less likely  as time passes...... The results for UK will be more and more profound as time passes...and they will be beyond doubt negative for the people of Britain ... England in particular.

No amount of buck passing or blaming exterior forces can detract from the fact that for the next couple if decades Brexit will have a negative effect on all aspects of the UK...economic, social, labour, constitutional, the Union, fiscal, foreign influence..you name it, the effect will be negative. On the bright  side it is unlikely the MoR electorate will stand for this.

 

The picture you paint is nothing more than a remainer fantasy, and bears little resemblance to reality.

[JHolmesJr]

Anything is better than the blight of unwanted and uncontrolled immigration.

[Grouse]

39 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Grouse was trying to argua that the FTSE 100 has fallen. It hasn't.

 

From your quote taken from the Indy article:

:

"Furthermore, to get a better indication of the UK economy, it is helpful to look at the FTSE 250, or the 250 biggest companies in the UK, which is more dependent on the UK economy than the multinational companies represented in the FTSE 100.

The FTSE 250 fell 13 per cent in two days after the vote came in. It has recovered a little since then, but not on the scale of the FTSE 100"

 

Here is a link to a greaph of FTSE 250 performance over recent years:

 

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices.html?index=MCX

 

As can be clearly seen, it spent the first half of 2015 rising, then fell steadily up until the referendum, when it fell sharply. Within a month, it was back to it's pre-referendum levels.It's now back to near it's May 2015 high, briefly passing that high in October.

 

So the Indy article is quite misleading (no surprise there) in trying to paint a picture of the FTSE 250 not performing well (and thus the economy not doing so well), when the FTSE 250 is actually doing fine (and so is the economy).

 

You seem to have real difficulty understanding all this...

 

You keep stating (falsely IMHO) that UK Ltd is doing well.  My view is that we're treading water at best and a lot of tough times are to come.

 

Looking at company valuations, PE ratios, dividend cover is meaningless in the face of a huge devaluation of Sterling.

 

Have you noticed that domestic M&A are at a two decade low? Foreign M&A is being driven by bargain basement prices.

 

None of this gives me any pleasure. I was very happy to see the steel (and aluminium) industry getting sorted out. No surprises that American knowledge based outfits are investing; our pointy heads are 20% cheaper than a year ago. BUT, India will always beat us at that game.

[jpinx]

41 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

And don't forget, Bill, that these 'experts' predicted that the UK economy would spiral into oblivion immediately after a brexit vote. And they continued with their negative predictions for several months, until they realised that they had egg all over their faces, and had to admit that they'd been wrong.

The general consensus is that the predictors could not have got things more wrong on so many occasions.  The referendum result was a classic and highlighted the problem of the prediction methods being used nowadays.  The continuing reliance of the same methodology in the finance world is creating most of the negative outlook now, but it is no more reliable than a wet finger in the wind.  History is littered with bad predictions and now is no exception.  The thing that is consistent is the desire of get out of the EU.  Repeated polls have confirmed peoples agreement with the referendum result.  Instead of wasting efforts at diverting the future down the plug-hole, remainers would do well to get their shoulder to the wheel and ensure that TM's hands are not tied in negotiations with a belligerent bunch of EU beaurocrats. 

[Khun Han]

10 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

You seem to have real difficulty understanding all this...

 

You keep stating (falsely IMHO) that UK Ltd is doing well.  My view is that we're treading water at best and a lot of tough times are to come.

 

Looking at company valuations, PE ratios, dividend cover is meaningless in the face of a huge devaluation of Sterling.

 

Have you noticed that domestic M&A are at a two decade low? Foreign M&A is being driven by bargain basement prices.

 

None of this gives me any pleasure. I was very happy to see the steel (and aluminium) industry getting sorted out. No surprises that American knowledge based outfits are investing; our pointy heads are 20% cheaper than a year ago. BUT, India will always beat us at that game.

 

Do you have a thesaurus which scecialises in different ways to call people stupid? Your condescension is as dull as dishwater .

 

I keep stating that the economy is doing fine because it is doing fine. The problem with the arguments of people like you is that you will jump on anything that is not quite hunky dory (or, as so hilariously put by jpinx: the price of custard). to 'prove' that things are going badly wrong. And I love the shallow attempts at even-handedness which are always self-dismissed as flashes in the pan. Some people are desperate for brexit to fail.

[Grouse]

14 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Do you have a thesaurus which scecialises in different ways to call people stupid? Your condescension is as dull as dishwater .

 

I keep stating that the economy is doing fine because it is doing fine. The problem with the arguments of people like you is that you will jump on anything that is not quite hunky dory (or, as so hilariously put by jpinx: the price of custard). to 'prove' that things are going badly wrong. And I love the shallow attempts at even-handedness which are always self-dismissed as flashes in the pan. Some people are desperate for brexit to fail.

 

I have no desire to belittle you or make you look foolish. 

 

I will quit labouring the point about the effects of devaluation

[7by7]

1 hour ago, JHolmesJr said:

Anything is better than the blight of unwanted and uncontrolled immigration.

 

Uncontrolled?

 

Wrong.

 

Immigration by non EEA or Swiss nationals is controlled by the UK's own immigration rules which are set by the UK parliament; unless they are a qualifying family member of an EEA or Swiss national.

 

Immigration by EEA and Swiss nationals and their non EEA national family, if any, and emigration by UK nationals to other EEA states and Switzerland is controlled by the Freedom of Movement Directive. It is not uncontrolled, there are conditions which the migrant has to meet.

 

It is highly unlikely that the other 27 EU members will agree to any post Brexit deal with the UK which does not include the UK agreeing to continue to be bound by the Freedom of Movement Directive; just as every other European country, the EFTA states and Switzerland, have had to do in their deals.

[Alan Deer]

Brexit needs to be stopped...for the good of the nation and the world.....and this is how it should, nay will start

 

"It would be good if the majority of members of parliament could recall and act upon Edmund Burke’s 1774 address to the electors of Bristol: they should summon up the courage to act as representatives, not delegates of constituencies " W. Keegan.

[billd766]

6 minutes ago, Alan Deer said:

Brexit needs to be stopped...for the good of the nation and the world.....and this is how it should, nay will start

 

"It would be good if the majority of members of parliament could recall and act upon Edmund Burke’s 1774 address to the electors of Bristol: they should summon up the courage to act as representatives, not delegates of constituencies " W. Keegan.

 

Over 17 MILLION people in the UK disagreed with you yet you still believe that your opinions are better than theirs and far more important too.

 

Bad news for you. They are not.

 

 

[elliss]

14 hours ago, Alan Deer said:

It would seem a lot of Brexiters are taking a head in the sand attitude to the effects of Brexit. The immediate effects are already manifest, but 2017 will see more chaos...if Brexit is allowed to go through....and I think it looks less likely  as time passes......

 

   That  is  the  plan. May was and still is anti Brexit.

    Remember her  speech to the  City bankers .

 Since being  PM ,  she has  changed her views ,

 temporarily .   A vote of NO confidence in 2017 .

      

Edited January 2, 2017 by elliss

[Laughing Gravy]

10 hours ago, Alan Deer said:

Brexit needs to be stopped...for the good of the nation and the world.....and this is how it should, nay will start

 

"It would be good if the majority of members of parliament could recall and act upon Edmund Burke’s 1774 address to the electors of Bristol: they should summon up the courage to act as representatives, not delegates of constituencies " W. Keegan.

Oh Deer (Pun intended) someone just joins TV or more likely an old remoaner banging the same rhetoric on this thread and probably others. It is time that you A Deer woke up, start supporting the will of the people and stop complaining about a democratic process. If you start at the beginning of this thread you will see that even the hardline remoaners have now started to finally accept Brexit and are moving on, although slightly. Going over the same argument is futile and quite frankly tedious.

The old argument of having a second referendum has dwindled to letting parliament decide, from the remainers perspective. If you are unhappy with the referendum then you have a democratic choice at the next election. Good luck

[SheungWan]

14 hours ago, Grouse said:

I will quit labouring the point about the effects of devaluation

 

I wouldn't quit quite yet:

[Grouse]

12 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

Over 17 MILLION people in the UK disagreed with you yet you still believe that your opinions are better than theirs and far more important too.

 

Bad news for you. They are not.

 

 

 

Please try and understand what representative democracy means. Burke is absolutely correct on this point. In the end, it is for members of parliament to decide. Maybe you should lead a peasant's revolt ?