More support needed to drive SET above the 1,600-point mark

[webfact]

More support needed to drive SET above the 1,600-point mark
By Therdsak Thaveeteeratham
Executive Vice President/Research
Asia Plus Securities

 

BANGKOK: -- The SET Index, from the last week of 2016 to last week, has seen a record high at 1,580 points, close to ASPS Research’s 2017 target of 1,600 points (based on estimated earnings-per-share growth in 2017 of 7.58 per cent or Bt100 per share and targeted PER of 16 times).

 

Based on the current environment, if the SET Index climbs to 1,600 points or higher, consistent and sufficient support is required. 

 

It’s believed that there is little capital flowing into the system from local institutional investors. To the contrary, it’s more likely to see capital flowing out as a result of sales of long-term equity funds (average weighted cost of purchases made by LTFs, in 2013, was at the SET Index of 1,501 points). 

 

Last week, local institutional investors became net sellers. 

 

Full story: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/business/EconomyAndTourism/30304179

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-01-16

[fletchsmile]

One day I hope the Nation gets its act together on its business section. It's terrible. 

 

1580 is not a record high on the SET. Perhaps a record within the short time frame their reporters have been learning about stock markets 

Edited January 16, 2017 by fletchsmile

[Oxx]

In one year it's returned a bit over 30%.  Surely a dramatic fall is now more likely than a further significant rise (particularly now that there'll shortly be a tangerine-skinned psychopath in the White House).

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

there is little capital flowing into the system from local institutional investors.

Last year foreign investors fled the country.

What is the source of capital that is still driving the SET upwards?

My guess is the richest private entity in the country worth trillions of baht and the military (albeit with unfettered access to the Thai treasury).

[elgordo38]

3 hours ago, Oxx said:

In one year it's returned a bit over 30%.  Surely a dramatic fall is now more likely than a further significant rise (particularly now that there'll shortly be a tangerine-skinned psychopath in the White House).

Depends a lot on the Fed. Now that the election is over it may pedal to the metal time for interest rates which I feel would be a big mistake. The Fed spiels off what they want you to hear like unemployment at multi year lows blah blah blah. What they don't tell you is that only a little over 62% are participating in the work force of mostly low paying jobs. Yes low interest credit is fueling the so called consumer spending spree as they know cheap money will not last forever (could be wrong on this one) More small businesses are going bankrupt than starting up, robotics is eating into the job market at all levels, generous welfare payments is stopping people from seeking employment but I have a feeling this will change under the Republicans. Debt is at an all time time regardless of which stone you turn over. Higher rates would mean a higher dollar as a safe haven play which in turn would hurt multi national businesses and so on its a tangled web.

[DividendGuy]

I agree with fletchsmile on his comment regarding the Nation newspaper's business/economics section...it is terrible. I also add that the Bangkok Post is in the same position. I have written to them in the past asking these newspapers to enlarge their Thai business/economics section, especially the Thai business companies posted on the SET. The Post said they would respond, but never did. Who cares what is happening in other parts of the world while these two newspapers should be focusing on the Thai stock market first.

[Oxx]

23 minutes ago, DividendGuy said:

these two newspapers should be focusing on the Thai stock market first.

 

Why? The SET is a minnow in the world of investing.  Barely worthy of any attention.