Thai treasury reserves down 85% since coup

[Thian]

6 hours ago, robblok said:

They could be right..(though i don't believe it) But holding a large amount of cash while you have loans is crazy, so in that respect they are right.

 

Just imagine you got 10.000 on your bank while you got a loan of 20.000 that your paying a lot on.. then lowering your bank account to 5000 and y our loan to 15.000 makes sense. So the explanation is ok. But to be sure of this you need to know how much the loans have mutated and the deficit of the countries budget. 

It all depends in what currency they have the loans and savings.

 

The baht will drop one day so it's smart to be prepared for that.

[Mook23]

8 hours ago, davehowden said:

"But, he said, that depletion of 420 billion baht from the coffers was a healthy adjustment and meant the government was relying less on loans."

 

Sorry, say that again for me !!!

FARANG NO UNDAHSUHTAND...

[carstenp]

1 hour ago, rreddin said:

It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of support. Now we know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were used to maintain the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable.

 

Between 30th June 2014 and 31st January 2017 the international value of the USD in percentage terms has increased as these US Dollar Indices show: DTWEXM (22.96%), DTWEXB (23.15%), and DTWEXO (23.20%). The average of these indices is 23.10%. Whereas, the THB to USD exchange rate rose by only 8.15% over exactly the same period, which is slightly more than a third of the amount that the international value of the USD actually increased. That means, at least theoretically, the THB to USD rate should be 40 or above.

I do agree with you on this one. Got this explanation from another place. They Guy is called JimboPSM

He writes the follow.

Quote

While I have a few reservations caused by a lack of detail in the article, the fall in the reserves comes as absolutely no surprise as it helps to explain the divergence between the nominal USD/THB exchange rate and the international value of the USD when expressed through the US Dollar Index.

This “latest” divergence became apparent at the beginning of July 2014 and continues today thus broadly fitting the timeline in the article.

It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of intervention and/or support - we now know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were squandered maintaining the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable.


While the following chart may appear overly complex, it clearly demonstrates the marked divergence between the nominal USD/THB exchange rate and the international value of the US Dollar.

It shows just how much in percentage terms that the international value of the USD has increased since 30th June 2014 through US Dollar Indexes - DTWEXM (22.96%), DTWEXB (23.15%) & DTWEXO (23.20%).

It also shows the relatively paltry 8.15% that the USD/THB exchange rate rose over exactly the same period – or only slightly more than a third of the amount that the international value of the USD actually increased.

 

 

[Deez]

Well, it costs money to fight corruption

[Lannig]

Naive question ahead: what's the point of artificially maintaining the THB exchange rate at a high level? Thailand has a positive export/import ratio, a lower THB would mean more exports and also more visitors.

National pride set aside...

[DrTuner]

5 minutes ago, Lannig said:

Naive question ahead: what's the point of artificially maintaining the THB exchange rate at a high level?

Gives more time to move cash abroad and then flee to greener pastures with the loot?

[maewang99]

Thailand's international reserves for December 2005... when teachers joined Sondhi.... concurrent with an effort.... yet again... to decentralize the schools and would have meant teachers losing their Civil Service status..... and benefits.....

Thailand's internal reserves were 2.136 billion US dollars.

today they are 6.272 billion US dollars.

EC_XT_031.
 

3 times bigger. 

why do you think a haircut here still costs about $2?

the Thai Bhat should be in the TEENS against a US dollar that post 1997 has and still has growing twin deficits.... even with Shale Gas!

the BOT is the only bidder for the Baht.... but doesn't bid on the Baht.. it bids on US debt instead. and still does.
   

 

Edited February 7, 2017 by maewang99

[Bluespunk]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

The Finance Minister insisted Monday the military government is not running out of money despite having burned through most of the reserves in place when it seized power.

Get a new finance minister then.

 

Even the white lie guy didn't make statements as crass as that.

[MorristheRunt]

8 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Gives more time to move cash abroad and then flee to greener pastures with the loot?

For every Thai's sake, lets hope that day comes soon, this country is going down the pan by the second.

 

There will be hell to pay for the ruling elite when it does, I am sure there are escape plans firmly in place.

 

I think I am correct in saying large parts of central London are Thai owned.

Edited February 7, 2017 by MorristheRunt

[Bluespunk]

8 hours ago, lemonjelly said:

It's like just discovering that the guy you lent your car to for the weekend turned out to be a joyrider.

As this car was stolen, I though the joy riding element was a given...

[Bluespunk]

7 hours ago, Naam said:

...and steam engines in Ferraris

A Steam Punk Ferrari...man I would just love to see that.

[PETERTHEEATER]

9 hours ago, davehowden said:

"But, he said, that depletion of 420 billion baht from the coffers was a healthy adjustment and meant the government was relying less on loans."

 

Sorry, say that again for me !!!

It means that we spend all that we have got then apply for a really big loan.....

[lemonjelly]

26 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

As this car was stolen, I though the joy riding element was a given...

Worst is, we're still in the bloody car whilst the driver is doing doughnuts outside the OHCHR

[LannaGuy]

9 hours ago, Naam said:

i can only shake my head when i read all these ignorant remarks from people who obviously mix up the country's reserves with the amount in government coffers.

 

eat your heart out Thai bashers!

 

well all of the rise was pre-junta and the dip started post-2014 and might be explained by exchange rates but the OP was talking about THB reserves

 

That number piqued the curiosity of an economics lecturer at Kasetsart University, Decharut Sukkumnoed, who pointed out that Sansern’s figure was 420 billion baht less than there was when the military seized power, according to the government’s Fiscal Policy Office.

“This does not include the fact the military government took a [744.2 billion] baht loan to compensate for deficits from September 2015 to December 2016,” Decharut wrote

Edited February 7, 2017 by LannaGuy

[Moonmoon]

Now we know why the junta stage the coup for. Dont give me the bs about returning happiness to the people. 

[elgordo38]

3 hours ago, chiang mai said:

Really, which conspiracy theory did you have in mind.

There are lots out there if he does not like one surely you can supply him with another. 

[elgordo38]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

You quoted something I didn't say, please remove it.

Sorry to offend you never had to remove something. Please send instructions. 

[DrTuner]

12 minutes ago, Moonmoon said:

Now we know why the junta stage the coup for. Dont give me the bs about returning happiness to the people. 

Well what would you do if you gain control and see a coffer full of gold in your loot? Plunder it, of course.

[OldSiamHand]

8 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Well what would you do if you gain control and see a coffer full of gold in your loot? Plunder it, of course.

Do you actually believe that?  If so, then why didn't the country go "bankrupt" during previous coups?  Lots to choose from, or is this one different?

 

Really, is Naam the only other poster here who understands some of these very basic financial stats?

[chiang mai]

36 minutes ago, elgordo38 said:

Sorry to offend you never had to remove something. Please send instructions. 

No problem, it's too late now anyway, post 90, that wasn't me - no big deal.

[elgordo38]

6 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

No problem, it's too late now anyway, post 90, that wasn't me - no big deal.

Sorry bro did not mean to upset up. Have a beer on me. 

[DrTuner]

26 minutes ago, OldSiamHand said:

Do you actually believe that?  If so, then why didn't the country go "bankrupt" during previous coups?  Lots to choose from, or is this one different?

Prior to 90's, nothing much to loot, and the 2006 one wasn't that long, although I'm sure lots of pillaging was going on.

[morrobay]

3 hours ago, rreddin said:

It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of support. Now we know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were used to maintain the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable.

 

Between 30th June 2014 and 31st January 2017 the international value of the USD in percentage terms has increased as these US Dollar Indices show: DTWEXM (22.96%), DTWEXB (23.15%), and DTWEXO (23.20%). The average of these indices is 23.10%. Whereas, the THB to USD exchange rate rose by only 8.15% over exactly the same period, which is slightly more than a third of the amount that the international value of the USD actually increased. That means, at least theoretically, the THB to USD rate should be 40 or above.

A few here have asked for conspiracy evidence/example of baht overvaluation. Is the above good enough for you? 

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, elgordo38 said:

He is making Yingluck look like a piker. He can spend as much as he wants to the law cannot touch him thanks to his own clemency act. 

Funny that the general public found out about the massive decline in the treasury reserves from a slip by Sansern. The reserves can be drawn by a mere cabinet decision. So you absolutely right to say that they can spend as much as they want and is perfectly legal. Banks loan asked too much questions. Junta government don't like questions. So make sense they spend from the treasury reserves. The junta better keep their fingers crossed that no major calamities happen that need emergency funding which is the purpose of the reserves and certainly not off-setting loans. 

[Naam]

3 hours ago, rreddin said:

It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of support. Now we know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were used to maintain the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable.

it is clearly apparent that you possess a wealth of no idea what the (essentially correct article) is about and that also applies to your claim "THB at a level that was not economically justifiable". 

[Naam]

5 minutes ago, morrobay said:

3 hours ago, rreddin said:

It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of support. Now we know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were used to maintain the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable.

 

Between 30th June 2014 and 31st January 2017 the international value of the USD in percentage terms has increased as these US Dollar Indices show: DTWEXM (22.96%), DTWEXB (23.15%), and DTWEXO (23.20%). The average of these indices is 23.10%. Whereas, the THB to USD exchange rate rose by only 8.15% over exactly the same period, which is slightly more than a third of the amount that the international value of the USD actually increased. That means, at least theoretically, the THB to USD rate should be 40 or above.

A few here have asked for conspiracy evidence/example of baht overvaluation. Is the above good enough for you? 

no, it is not!

[Naam]

5 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Funny that the general public found out about the massive decline in the treasury reserves from a slip by Sansern. The reserves can be drawn by a mere cabinet decision. So you absolutely right to say that they can spend as much as they want and is perfectly legal. Banks loan asked too much questions. Junta government don't like questions. So make sense they spend from the treasury reserves. The junta better keep their fingers crossed that no major calamities happen that need emergency funding which is the purpose of the reserves and certainly not off-setting loans. 

the junta is in power since end of may 2014. take a look at the graph and tell me how much of the reserves was spent since then. 

 

 

[chiang mai]

2 hours ago, carstenp said:

I do agree with you on this one. Got this explanation from another place. They Guy is called JimboPSM

He writes the follow.

 

IF what you claim is true, that foreign currency reserves have been used to keep THB artificially strong, that would involve BOT selling THB and buying USD, consequently a massive depletion of THB would be seen - please point to it.

 

AND, please also explain why, when exports are in decline, would BOT want a stronger currency which would further cripple exports.

[Eric Loh]

7 minutes ago, Naam said:

the junta is in power since end of may 2014. take a look at the graph and tell me how much of the reserves was spent since then. 

 

 

I am sure you know the difference between the treasury reserves and the foreign (forex) reserves that you posted. The former is managed by the government while the latter is by the BOT. 

[chainarong]

Me and Thailand might just have something in common after all , zilch in the bank...................................