Facing test of resolve, Trump pushes ahead with North Korea review

[webfact]

Facing test of resolve, Trump pushes ahead with North Korea review

By Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom

REUTERS

 

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a meeting with U.S. House Deputy Whip team at the East room of the White House in Washington, U.S. March 7, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Faced with a growing test of resolve for a new U.S. president who vowed while campaigning to get tough on North Korea, Donald Trump's aides are pressing to complete a strategy review on how to counter Pyongyang's missile and nuclear threats.

 

Pyongyang's latest missile launches and the assassination in Malaysia of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's estranged half-brother have added urgency, driving home the need for Washington to confront the security challenge.

 

All options are on the table, ranging from tighter sanctions aimed at pushing North Korea back into disarmament talks, to a return of U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea, and even pre-emptive air strikes on North Korean missile installations, senior U.S. administration officials said.

 

They added a consensus was forming around relying for now on increased economic and diplomatic pressure – especially by pressing China to do more to rein in North Korea - while deploying advanced anti-missile defences in South Korea and possibly in Japan, as well.

 

Among the other possibilities, one U.S. official said, was returning North Korea to the U.S. list of countries that support terrorism.

That would be a response to the suspected use of nerve gas to kill Kim's brother at a Malaysian airport last month. It would subject Pyongyang - already heavily sanctioned by the United Nations and individual states, so far to little effect - to additional financial sanctions that were removed when it was taken off the list in 2008.

 

For now, U.S. officials consider pre-emptive military action far too risky, given the danger of igniting a regional war and causing massive casualties in Japan and South Korea and among tens of thousands of U.S. troops based in both allied countries.

 

Such ideas could gain traction, however, if North Korea proceeds with a threatened test of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States. Just before he took office in January, Trump tweeted: "It won't happen!" when Kim said North Korea was close to testing an ICBM.

 

Trump also could opt for escalating cyber attacks and other covert actions aimed at undermining the North Korean leadership, a U.S. government source said.

    

REVIEW COULD BE COMPLETED THIS MONTH

 

The review is expected to be completed by the end of the month, officials said. Decisions could be held up, however, by the slow pace at which Trump has been filling national security jobs.

 

Trump is known to have little patience for detailed foreign policy discussions, but officials said he seemed to have heeded a warning from his White House predecessor, Barack Obama, that North Korea would be the most urgent international issue he would face - so much so that he requested intelligence briefings on the issue.

 

While officials have stressed the need to persuade China to do more to pressure North Korea, Trump's first concrete response to North Korea's missile tests has been to start installing an advanced anti-missile defence system in South Korea, which has incensed Beijing.

 

Diplomats said the move might reassure U.S. allies but could backfire by antagonizing China, which regards the system as a threat, and make it less willing to step up sanctions on its neighbour.

 

"You have to adjust and calibrate all the options based on the facts on the ground," said an administration official, who added that media reports highlighting military options were overblown.

 

"The ability to have sanctions that pack some punch and are more dynamic than we have had in the past is going to be dependent to some extent on Chinese cooperation," he said.

 

Chinese diplomats argue that Beijing is doing all it can.

 

Bonnie Glaser at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies said China could close banks that conduct illicit financial transactions with North Korea, prosecute front companies facilitating business, cut off oil exports and expel North Korean workers.

 

NO GOOD MILITARY OPTIONS

 

Glazer said she saw no good military option. While past talks have failed, she would not be surprised if Trump wanted to try diplomacy.

 

One idea could be to discuss a freeze in North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, which would fall short of current demands for nuclear disarmament.

 

"North Korea may insist on being recognised as a nuclear weapons state as a precondition, in which case the U.S. would have to decide whether to make that concession," she said.

 

Evans Revere, a former senior diplomat who dealt with Korea under President George W. Bush, said Washington should pressure North Korea with sanctions, military deployments and covert operations.

 

"Doing this would ... compel the regime to rethink its course and make it more likely to return to dialogue and denuclearisation, lest it risk collapse," he said.

 

Whether Trump will be willing to tolerate the level of risk needed to make such a strategy work remains unclear.

 

"This is an administration that is more inclined to be averse to regime change than previous administrations," the first administration official said. "That's from the top down."

 

"This administration intends to come up with options based on the cards we are dealt; not try to change the deck entirely, which is what regime change is."

 

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom, Matt Spetalnick, Steve Holland, John Walcott and Phil Stewart in Washington and Michelle Nichols at the United Nations; Editing by Peter Cooney)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-03-08

[mesquite]

Another mess President Trump inherited from Obama.

[Langsuan Man]

2 hours ago, mesquite said:

Another mess President Trump inherited from Obama.

Actually from Truman, but he is dead so there is no reason to bash him 

[Redline]

4 hours ago, mesquite said:

Another mess President Trump inherited from Obama.

Your grasp of history is apparently non-existent.  If you are going to be ignorant, keep your lack of information to yourself.

[mesquite]

Just now, Redline said:

Your grasp of history is apparently non-existent.  If you are going to be ignorant, keep your lack of information to yourself.

I will continue to post the truth no matter what you want.

[heybruce]

"They added a consensus was forming around relying for now on increased economic and diplomatic pressure – especially by pressing China to do more to rein in North Korea - while deploying advanced anti-missile defences in South Korea and possibly in Japan, as well."

 

In other words, the Obama approach.  Trump, who promotes himself as a great negotiator, hasn't the brains or patience for multilateral negotiations, which is why he trashed the TPP as soon as he took office.  However there are no good unilateral solutions to North Korea.  I have no hope Trump will improve on this situation.

 

[heybruce]

5 hours ago, mesquite said:

Another mess President Trump inherited from Obama.

You do know that North Korea acquired nuclear weapons during the George W Bush administration, don't you?

[mesquite]

Just now, heybruce said:

You do know that North Korea acquired nuclear weapons during the George W Bush administration, don't you?

You do know Obama was president for 8 years and did nothing to correct that?

[heybruce]

7 minutes ago, heybruce said:

You do know that North Korea acquired nuclear weapons during the George W Bush administration, don't you?

 

6 minutes ago, mesquite said:

You do know Obama was president for 8 years and did nothing to correct that?

That's because once a country has nuclear weapons it's very difficult to take them away.  Trump is learning that now (hopefully).  It would have been much easier to keep North Korea from acquiring these weapons, but that ship has sailed.

[thaihome]

5 minutes ago, mesquite said:

You do know Obama was president for 8 years and did nothing to correct that?

You might want to explain how one goes about "correcting" the fact a country has nuclear weapons and is developing the means to deliver them outside it's borders. 

 

Would be very good if the that process did not include a steadily escalating shooting war (such as the one that got us into this mess in the first place).

TH 

[mesquite]

We are going to find out.

[charmonman]

5 hours ago, mesquite said:

Another mess President Trump inherited from Obama.

Who inherited it from George W Bush, who inherited it from Bill Clinton, who inherited it from George H W Bush, who inherited it from Reagen etcetera etcetera.

 

Obama is gone, it's Trump's responsibility to manage now. So far he doesn't seem capable of much more than tweeting every thought that pops into his tiny brain.

[charmonman]

23 minutes ago, mesquite said:

I will continue to post the truth no matter what you want.

The truth? Ha ha, that's hilarious!

[mesquite]

Just now, charmonman said:

The truth? Ha ha, that's hilarious!

Yes, like "Trump will win the nomination" and "Trump will win the general election" which were also met with derision from TV "geniuses" like yourself.

[thaihome]

8 minutes ago, mesquite said:

We are going to find out.

The fact that you might actually sincerely  believe that is true is really sad.

TH 

 

[mesquite]

6 minutes ago, thaihome said:

The fact that you might actually sincerely  believe that is true is really sad.

TH 

 

LOL.  Not sad at all.  I'm a realist.

[heybruce]

39 minutes ago, mesquite said:

I will continue to post the truth no matter what you want.

 

14 minutes ago, mesquite said:

Yes, like "Trump will win the nomination" and "Trump will win the general election" which were also met with derision from TV "geniuses" like yourself.

I see, you don't know the difference between "truth" and "predictions". 

 

Tell us, oh wise predictor, how will Trump solve this mess?

[the guest]

It can't be too difficult to swot the little blighter ... he's the fat one, with the stupid haircut ! 

[IAMHERE]

55 minutes ago, heybruce said:

You do know that North Korea acquired nuclear weapons during the George W Bush administration, don't you?

Started work on them during the Clinton presidency, didn't they? Sure as heck didn't design and build then from 2000 to 2008, if so then there is no telling what those guys can come up with; better nuc'em now.

[daveAustin]

There'd be some mess in Seoul, no doubt, but I say get in there and pop his big behind asap. Screw what China think; they could have sorted all this decades ago but they continually let them do their thing. They either want a quietened NK on their border, or a US-backed unified Korea, up to them. I say get in there and put some of those expensive nukes to use. NK does not have the capability to shoot them back... yet. After it is done, Donald then says to Iran, watch your rhetoric or you're next.

[farcanell]

It's true... axis of evil.... so true... bigly true

[heybruce]

34 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

Started work on them during the Clinton presidency, didn't they? Sure as heck didn't design and build then from 2000 to 2008, if so then there is no telling what those guys can come up with; better nuc'em now.

Yes, they started working on them during the Clinton years, if not earlier.  Using carrot and stick negotiations the Clinton administration kept development in check.  The Bush administration abandoned this approach and replace it with...nothing.  The result speaks for itself.

[joecoolfrog]

3 hours ago, mesquite said:

I will continue to post the truth no matter what you want.

Your ' truth ' I think you meant.

[elgordo38]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

even pre-emptive air strikes on North Korean missile installations, senior U.S. administration officials said.

 

I am not a war monger but Donald this seems to be about he only option on the table. It would also serve as a wake up call to China as well. This guy Kim Dung will never be talked down he only understands force. If you wait to long it could be to  late. 

[quadperfect]

Seems like things could go only a few different ways.

We could all wake up to a nuclear nightmare.

When japan had its melt down my friends took pills here in phuket to help with the fall out.

I guess i should find out more about that.

Jet stream and prevailing winds too.

Feels like cuban misdile crisis but its in asia .

Maybe thats why thailand wants subs.

[farcanell]

16 minutes ago, elgordo38 said:

I am not a war monger but Donald this seems to be about he only option on the table. It would also serve as a wake up call to China as well. This guy Kim Dung will never be talked down he only understands force. If you wait to long it could be to  late. 

When I first saw the news article, I thought to myself "this would be a good opportunity to practice with anti middle defense systems"

 

then they deployed anti missle defense systems.

 

if anyone knows anyone with pull, im available as a consultant.

[heybruce]

War is a poor option.  North Korea has enough conventional artillery near the border to level much of Seoul.  It also has a massive stockpile of chemical weapons.  No matter how massive and well executed a first strike would be, it would be impossible to eliminate all the retaliatory capability with any confidence. 

 

It's also impossible to know how many nukes N. Korea has, where they are, and how they might be used.  A high altitude air burst over the Korean peninsula (send the bomb straight up and set it off) would create an EMP that could wreak havoc upon advanced economies over that part of the world--S. Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan--and do devastating damage to the world economy.

 

There is also the problem of China not wanting a US ally, unified Korea, on it's border.  They might get involved, as they did over 60 years ago.

 

These are just a few of the downsides that occur to me off the top of my head.  Hopefully someone is explaining them to Trump in simple terms that he can understand.

 

Some kind of crisis in North Korean government, possibly manufactured, that would give China a pretext to move in to "assist" and set up a puppet state might work.  However that would be tricky to pull off, and so far China seems content with the status quo.

[boomerangutang]

9 hours ago, mesquite said:

Another mess President Trump inherited from Obama.

 

4 hours ago, mesquite said:

You do know Obama was president for 8 years and did nothing to correct that?

           The problem in the Koreas is similar to the problems around Israel, in the sense the problems have been churning since WWII.  To blame Obama is lame.  If anything, we can praise Obama for the fact that no major bad incidents have come out of N.Korea between '08 and '17.  

          Now the US has the loosest of loose cannons at the helm. A man who gets his news from flipped-out nutzoid conspiracy screw-ups.  If I believed in God, I'd say 'God help us.'   Trump's fan base of gun-hugging rednecks didn't even think about int'l affairs when they were gleefully shouting 'lock her up!' at their Nazi-like rallies.   I blame Trump voters more than Trump himself for the troubles which will hobble the US in coming months/years.   Trump was merely a huckster.  It was his voters who got fooled.

[Dumbastheycome]

5 hours ago, mesquite said:

You do know Obama was president for 8 years and did nothing to correct that?

If  the   acquisition  was  real  how  would  you expect  Obama  to  take them  away?l

[elgordo38]

2 hours ago, quadperfect said:

I guess i should find out more about that.

Yes you definitely should. Check the NOAA weather charts for air and water you will find it disturbing. Second hand information from a friend people in the USA are buying the small hand held detectors and finding high readings on their vegetables. The readings close to the contamination site are right off the charts. The robots they send down malfunction from the radioactivity. The danger is being contained as well.