Thai baht set to weaken

[simoh1490]

11 minutes ago, teddog said:

In a country that does not know what its doing in the next half hour or so , Id say these are brave predictions

 But yes is exporting country,rice rubber,bolt together cars from Japan,but I would say rice the staple export and more precisely the first off, perfumed rice, has the opulent smell of a  load of horseshit,that 1.9% unemployment figure will be more like 91% this harvest

   Yes is good at churning out figures that have utterly no meaning exepting at going up one notch in the "happiness league" I would add to that YaBa use must be definately on higher usage than first thought,and in a country that I personally would not trust my own shadow in ,it all comes together like a dogs dinner ...anyway as stated earlier I like a leg over now and again,nothing finer than here,has tried exporting the stuff too,but no success

 

  As for all those predictions of yours,one word..Trump will skittle the lot, China is in for a bad time raising capital in US,that will stop dead

Actually rice barely figures in the top 10:

 

1. Machinery including computers: US$37.2 billion (17.4% of total exports)
2. Electrical machinery, equipment: $29.7 billion (13.9%)
3. Vehicles : $27.2 billion (12.7%)
4. Gems, precious metals: $14.2 billion (6.6%)
5. Rubber, rubber articles: $12.2 billion (5.7%)
6. Plastics, plastic articles: $11.4 billion (5.3%)
7. Mineral fuels including oil: $6.3 billion (2.9%)
8. Meat/seafood preparations: $5.9 billion (2.8%)
9. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.3 billion (2.5%)
10. Cereals: $4.6 billion (2.1%)

 

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

 

As for the rest of your post, it's difficult to take any of it seriously to be honest and I'm guessing you are simply trolling.

[Naam]

2 minutes ago, teddog said:

I would take care Naam,that 1.2 billion baht triple  bypassed heart c/w heart and lung whatever,might put a graph up at life expectency on that lot

that comment makes more sense than "China raising capital in the U.S."

[teddog]

2 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Actually rice barely figures in the top 10:

 

1. Machinery including computers: US$37.2 billion (17.4% of total exports)
2. Electrical machinery, equipment: $29.7 billion (13.9%)
3. Vehicles : $27.2 billion (12.7%)
4. Gems, precious metals: $14.2 billion (6.6%)
5. Rubber, rubber articles: $12.2 billion (5.7%)
6. Plastics, plastic articles: $11.4 billion (5.3%)
7. Mineral fuels including oil: $6.3 billion (2.9%)
8. Meat/seafood preparations: $5.9 billion (2.8%)
9. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.3 billion (2.5%)
10. Cereals: $4.6 billion (2.1%)

 

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

 

As for the rest of your post, it's difficult to take any of it seriously to be honest and I'm guessing you are simply trolling.

With a ringing endorsement of the UN,human rights,EU commissioners and whoever involved.

 

  Again meanlingless figures. I am sure Trump and team have found that smoking gun,and more, behind the Trump levelled accusation of Thailands currency manipulation.  Could be 100% -200% tax slapped on Thai produce  ,or just turn that boat around

 

  Never found out about the Fox law suite (1.3 billion baht) against Bangkok banks sleight of hand,good move though to start it off in Singapore,am sure they would have been treated as fairly in Bangkok  LOL

Edited April 11, 2017 by teddog

[simoh1490]

8 minutes ago, teddog said:

With a ringing endorsement of the UN,human rights,EU commissioners and whoever involved.

 

  Again meanlingless figures. I am sure Trump and team have found that smoking gun,and more, behind the Trump levelled accusation of Thailands currency manipulation.  Could be 100% -200% tax slapped on Thai produce  ,or just turn that boat around

 

  Never found out about the Fox law suite (1.3 billion baht) against Bangkok banks sleight of hand,good move though to start it off in Singapore,am sure they would have been treated as fairly in Bangkok  LOL

Meaningless figures you say.  You think that rice is Thailand's key export since you reckon "close to 91% of the population will be unemployed at the next harvest"  (paraphrased) - some rough math suggests Thailand would require a growing area the size of Europe to be able to grow enough rice to equal the Dollar value of 90% of their total exports but that's something we'll save for the pub later perhaps! In the meantime, let's look at the currency manipulation issue for moment and try to bring some sanity back to this discussion.

 

Trumps alleged problem with Thailand is that their currency is too strong and that Thailand engages in unfair currency manipulation, so how do they do that? Well, Thailand makes "stuff", exports it and gets paid in USD (mainly) which the Thai central bank requires be sold to buy THB, at least that's what they used to do. The downside to that process is that every time exporters sell USD and buys THB, THB strengthens. The upside of course is that forcing that currency conversion helps ensure the local population doesn't get involved in anything to do with foreign currencies and avoids a potential repeat of the 1997 economic crisis (remember, Thailand is still a developing economy and its population not fully financially literate on par with global standards). That enforced sale of foreign currency also helps ensure the central bank maintains control of THB which in case you've forgotten, is a restricted currency that is not fully convertible, yet another measure designed to avoid foreign control of the currency and a repeat of the 1997 crisis.

 

But I wrote above that's what they used to do. In fairly recent times the Thai central bank has relaxed the extent to which Thai nationals can keep and invest foreign currencies both here and abroad, a move aimed at preventing THB from becoming overly strong.

 

Another aspect of all of this is overseas investors/brokers in search of yield have bought quite heavily into the SET and into Thai bonds. Why? Because the economy in Thailand has been in better shape than the economies of other countries and of course those purchases have involved Dollars being sold and financial products being purchased in THB, an action that once again causes THB to strengthen. The central bank did act a few years ago to prevent overseas investors from making quick profits and damaging THB by imposing a tax on those investments, a move that created an onshore and offshore currency market which many overseas banks/brokers cried was unfair!

 

So I'm just wondering now what problems Trump and his team are going to cite on this subject. It looks like they might find the economy of Thailand has been in historically better shape than many others and that Thailand's central bank has acted in accordance with World Bank recommendations to manage its currency, none of which seem unfair, unreasonable or unfair practise by Thailand! Perhaps the real problem for Trump to deal with is not that THB is so strong but that other foreign currencies are so weak by comparison.

[CharlieK]

On 09/04/2017 at 0:27 PM, Naam said:

only amateurs use Kasikorn rates instead of international exchange rates published by Thomson Reuters.

to be fair K Bank don't quote international mid price values. You are right though.

[Naam]

21 minutes ago, CharlieK said:

to be fair K Bank don't quote international mid price values. You are right though.

near real time bid/ask rates fed by ThomsonReuters are available from Oanda updated with a five second frequency. but for rates pertaining to transfers to Thailand the rates of the individual Thai bank counts of course. i mention that because dozens of times one hears people complaining "xe.com showed rate-Y but my bank credited me rate-Z".

 

http://www.oanda.com/currency/live-exchange-rates/ 

[Naam]

8 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

THB which in case you've forgotten, is a restricted currency that is not fully convertible, yet another measure designed to avoid foreign control of the currency and a repeat of the 1997 crisis.

i got this letter from my bank in SG years ago. the restrictions still apply:

Quote

Dear Client,

 

Thai Baht Currency Restrictions

 

Further to the Bank of Thailand’s Measure No. 33/2003 (Additional Measure to Prevent Thai Baht Speculation), which came into effect in October 2003, XYZ Bank, Singapore Branch is subject to restrictions affecting its holdings of Thai Baht currency.   These include the following:

Maintaining THB accounts in Thailand for settlement purposes only, where settlement means the settlement of securities transactions and cash payment transactions.   The exception is for deposits of a tenor of at least 6 months or more.

Forfeiture of credit interest on its accounts (other than deposits of a tenor of at least 6 months or more)

Ensuring that the aggregated end of day balances for cash accounts with all financial institutions in Thailand do not exceed THB 300 million (the “Daily THB Limit”)  

Imposition of deposit charge on THB account balances.

In relation to the Daily THB Limit, XYZ Bank, Singapore Branch will be required to adjust its Thai Baht balances in all its client accounts to be compliant with the permitted level as determined by the Thai authorities on a daily basis.  As such accounts may include balances in Thai Baht held on your behalf, it is critical that we are able to adjust client THB balances to ensure compliance.

 

Accordingly, at any time that you are holding a long position in THB, we reserve the right in our absolute discretion and without prior notice to you to convert your holding of THB, in whole or part, into United States dollars at the prevailing spot rate.

 

Yours truly,
                        
XYZ Bank, Singapore Branch

 

 

[CharlieK]

23 minutes ago, Naam said:

i mention that because dozens of times one hears people complaining "xe.com showed rate-Y but my bank credited me rate-Z".

That is because many think that is the actual exchange rate rather than the mid price between buy and sell. To which the banks add their own margin for making the transaction. Whence  the guy thinking K Bank rates were the same as international rates.  

[Naam]

32 minutes ago, CharlieK said:

That is because many think that is the actual exchange rate rather than the mid price between buy and sell. To which the banks add their own margin for making the transaction. Whence  the guy thinking K Bank rates were the same as international rates.  

defending the "guy" it's only fair to mention that the discussed difference in percentage is similar, i.e. it could be used as a comparison.

[janclaes47]

1 hour ago, CharlieK said:

That is because many think that is the actual exchange rate rather than the mid price between buy and sell. To which the banks add their own margin for making the transaction. Whence  the guy thinking K Bank rates were the same as international rates.  

The guy NEVER said Kbank rates are the same as international, he mentioned the spread, but that goes over your head I guess

 

I may not be an economic expert, but at least I'm not an illiterate smart Aleck.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2017 by janclaes47

[CharlieH]

Troll style post removed.

[champers]

News in yesterday's BP that large exporters are asking BOT to devalue the Baht.

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, champers said:

News in yesterday's BP that large exporters are asking BOT to devalue the Baht.

They were asking for devaluation at 29 and it didn't happen, it's therefore doubtful it will happen at 33.5. But there is scope for that to happen given the balance of trade is positive, higher cost of imported goods would follow (including oil) but tourism and capital inflows may benefit. I would have guessed that a cut in the bank rate might have been on the cards but apparently not.

[uptheos]

Thailand’s popularity among bond investors is creating a headache for policy makers counting on exports and tourism to drive growth.

 

Some $2.1 billion of foreign money has flowed into the nation’s debt this year, making it the top destination among Southeast Asia’s emerging markets. That’s buoying the baht, the region’s best developing-nation performer in 2017, and spurring speculation the currency will cope with rising U.S. interest rates better than its peers.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-05/thailand-s-asean-haven-status-giving-central-bank-baht-headache

[simoh1490]

Maybe a return to capital controls is the answer,  that 15% withholding tax on short term investments from overseas was effective, albeit it did create a two tier exchange rate. The basic question remains though, why should Thailand have to weaken its currency, just because other currencies are not as strong? A devalued Baht would make inward investment even more attractive, that and increased tourist receipts would mean the Baht would increase in value quite quickly I would have thought.

 

My earlier comment about an interest rate cut was clearly wrong by the way, that would have the effect of further stimulating the economy and do very little to weaken the Baht, although it could slow the rate of capital inflows but only to a lesser degree.

Edited April 11, 2017 by simoh1490

[wakeupplease]

On 09/04/2017 at 1:28 PM, simoh1490 said:

No I don't not see what you mean, nor do I understand why you are unable to answer the question!

 

Thailand is considered to be quite strong In economic terms, some of the reasons for this include:

 

Large available workforce;

Low external debt and low core inflation;

Minimal social welfare overheads;

Substantial foreign currency reserves;

Low tax burdens;

Multiple sources of income from exports and tourism.

 

 

 

you forgot to add

 

Massive Household Debt

Substantial foreign currency reserves ???

Multiple sources of income from exports and tourism > both in real terms falling

 

Teddog also points out a fact that is looked upon across the Free Trade World as a big problem as history has showed.

 

nor do I understand why you are unable to answer the question >>Just view TV rules as that is why I cannot say more.

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, wakeupplease said:

you forgot to add

 

Massive Household Debt

Substantial foreign currency reserves ???

Multiple sources of income from exports and tourism > both in real terms falling

 

Teddog also points out a fact that is looked upon across the Free Trade World as a big problem as history has showed.

 

nor do I understand why you are unable to answer the question >>Just view TV rules as that is why I cannot say more.

Consumer debt (CD) is up but it's not high by comparative standards, Thailand CD is around 81% of GDP compared to European and Scandinavian countries that begin around 150% of GDP and rise to 250%. https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-debt.htm. Looked at another way, debt to income ratio is still quite low by comparative standards.

 

Substantial foreign currency reserves: BOT is sitting on USD 180 billion of them, higher than most western countries.

 

Exports and tourism falling in real terms: I've yet to see proof from a reliable and recognised source showing this is true. In the event it is true it's worth reminding that the past six years or more has seen a global slowdown that has impacted most countries and seen base rates fall to near zero and turn negative in some cases. The fact that Thailand has managed that storm well does not mean its economy has been totally undamaged but with a base rate of 1.75% they are doing very well by any measure. Rather than try and view Thailand in isolation perhaps a comparison with other countries data would provide a clearer picture for you.

 

Sorry but I still don't understand the last comment, it's not beyond the abilities of many people to phrase an answer discreetly without worrying if laws are being broken! Are you referring to human rights?

 

 

 

 

Edited April 12, 2017 by simoh1490

[teddog]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Exports and tourism falling in real terms: I've yet to see proof from a reliable and recognised source

 

 

 

 

 

..& you never will,Thailand uses devious and dark means to achieve its ambitions,straight down from the justice system right down to its toenails facts and fgures mean nothing,just believe what you are told,the small chinks of whatever are shut down in no small measure by censure,reporters now requiring licences to report,soon whole sections of daily newspapers in the kingdom carrying white blanked out sections.  Thailand enters another dark period where military intervention is the norm

  The last thing Thailand wants and needs is a strong currency,money no longer changes hands as fequently or trickles down to the people who need it the most,

   Open the door of the "truth and honesty" ministry, all you will get to see in all probability is 3 used condoms and a torn pair of knickers

 

[12DrinkMore]

3 hours ago, teddog said:

  Open the door of the "truth and honesty" ministry, all you will get to see in all probability is 3 used condoms and a torn pair of knickers

 

Before chucking the stones around, the west has not been wearing spotless underpants.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/10/head-civil-service-sir-jeremy-heywood-dragged-libor-scandal/

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39548313

 

6,000,000,000 quid in fines, an employee hung out to dry in jail, lying to parliament, manipulation from the top BoE and UK Treasury.

 

YMMV, but I reckon Thailand is doing OK on the smoke and mirrors finance compared to the UK where, not only do the banks try and screw the individual customers and provide a terrible service, but they are also out there screwing everybody else too.

 

 

[12DrinkMore]

4 hours ago, teddog said:

Thailand enters another dark period where military intervention is the norm

 

Thailand has a long history of the millitary stepping in when the politicians overstepped their mark. How many coups have they had in the last 80 years?

 

It is difficult to change the momentum of the past, but IMO the current incumbants are making considerable progress. I am way more optimistic about Thailand growing and being successful in the future than the basket case of the Euroflop, and the self-immolation of the UK.

 

 

[Bastos60]

On 3/8/2017 at 10:03 AM, lyskamm said:

Looking forward to seeing 40 to the Euro !!:)

Looking forward to it ever getting back up to 42.

But I see it go down to 32-33 before it will get better.

[simoh1490]

A national newspaper reports today that BOT has curtailed early the sale of Baht 80 bill. of short term bonds, in order to prevent baht speculation which has been seen in the Thai bond market recently - forum rules prevent displaying the link.

[BigKahuna]

On 08/03/2017 at 7:30 PM, aslimversgwm said:

Obviously you're not living here on a small pension like tens of thousands throughout the world so I won't 'pipe down' And it isn't 'done and dusted' as you seem to imagine. Way to go my ill-informed friend.

Go work

[overherebc]

On 08/03/2017 at 3:02 PM, brain150 said:

Let's just wait and see what happens after the 15th of March !!!

Still waiting.

[Xonax]

As we all know now, this unfortunately didn´t happen.

[LammyTS1]

Got a shock on Tuesday when it changed from 42.9 to 43.9 to the pound. 

[Happyman58]

On 3/8/2017 at 2:26 PM, spidermike007 said:

 

Taking into account how relatively poorly the economy is doing, the rising unemployment numbers (despite the protestations from official channels), the decline in quality tourism (most zero baht Chinese tourists do not count, as they contribute so little to the local economy), and capital outflows, one would have expected it to fall to 38-40 to the dollar by now. Something is propping it up. 

The strip clubs in Bangok you think

[GOLDBUGGY]

On ‎4‎/‎1‎/‎2017 at 2:49 PM, CharlieK said:

That is plainly wrong! The value of gold would have had to increase by 20%. You would never make 20% on a currency by buying gold on currency fluctuations. 

 

 

What is obvious to me is that you have never lived through a period of Hyper Inflation and like I have. I recall in Canada (no less) when my Mortgage Interest Payment was 13.8%, and that was a good one compared to others who later were paying 18% and upwards.

 

As for the price of Gold during this time it peaked at over $800 an onz. Adjusting for Inflation for that time period in todays dollars that would be over $2,000 an onz. if you were to buy that same Gold today. Believe me, people were lined up at Banks to buy this Gold then to.

 

I recall being in Poland during the late 1980's. The Inflation Rate in Poland then for that year was over 1,000%. Imagine That! Getting paid at the start of that month knowing that by the end of that month your money will only be worth half as much. So most people bought what they needed for that month as soon as they got paid, as they knew that by the end of that month they could only buy half as much.

 

But what did the smart people do who did have some extra money left over? No point in putting it is a Bank Savings Account as even with high interest payments there money would be worth less than what it was when they first put it into the bank.

 

Buying US Dollars was a good idea but hard to come by. You couldn't just walk into a bank and buy that. You had to buy it on the street and thus pay the Black Market Price. So in many cases you had to pay double the normal price and what the US Dollar was actually trading at.

 

The other method for people who had a lot of extra money, and this wasn't too many, was to buy anything with Gold in it. Again you just couldn't walk into a bank and buy Pure Gold Ounzes. But you could buy Gold Jewelry. Which many Polish People did.

 

No My Friend, I am afraid it is you who is wrong on both accounts. Currencies do fluxuate over 20% in a year and you don't buy Gold expecting it to go up over 20% that year. You buy Gold to protect your present value of your week currency, This is why Gold is consdered a Safe Haven.

 

There are several instances throughout hstory that proves this. The Hyper Inflation in America in the 80's. The Asian Crises in the 90's. The more recent Russian Ruble crises and now the BREX. I am not suggesting to buy Gold as the time to buy it is in bad times and not when there us a strong US Dollar. But then it never hurts to hold at least some. Especially if you do have a lot of money to put away,  

[Naam]

 

the "hyperinflation" of the 80s when investors raked in 13-16% interest on AAA rated US-Treasuries and gold dropped from $800/ounce to $295/ounce = minus 65%

 

next gold fairy tale please

 

Edited April 22, 2017 by Naam

[GOLDBUGGY]

4 hours ago, Naam said:

 

the "hyperinflation" of the 80s when investors raked in 13-16% interest on AAA rated US-Treasuries and gold dropped from $800/ounce to $295/ounce = minus 65%

 

next gold fairy tale please

 

I just love when somebody tears one page out of a book and from that tries to tell the whole story. So let me try by using one of your own words. "Hyperinflation"

 

Sure! You can make it sound great by saying that during this period you were making 13-16% investing in a US Treasury Bill. But what you failed to show is the Inflation Rate for this period so let me spell it out to you. If you were making 16% on a US Treasury, but the inflation rate for this period was 18%, then you are actually losing money. You money earned a Negative 2% for that year!

 

Yes! Us Treasuries were paying a high interest then and even 16%. But if you bank mortgage was 18-21%, where do you think the smart money should go? I recall getting a pay increase for this 2 year period of 14% for the first year, and 13% the next year. That all sounds great now, But if inflation was running higher than that then you were actually losing money.

 

Personally I never claimed that buying Gold is a good investment. But for people having a currency that is hyerinflated, it is far better to hold Gold then there own local currency. In Poland during this time they couldn't buy US Treaury Bills. They couldn't even leagally buy US Dollars. The only ones that could were working outside of the country. So all that I am saying is the Gold was a better option for them then nothing at all.