Baht tipped to stay weak against US$

[webfact]

Baht tipped to stay weak against $
By  THE NATION

 

BANGKOK: -- CREDIT Suisse investment analysts predict that the US dollar will stay strong this year, while most Asian currencies remain weak, including the baht.

 

At the firm’s annual Market Outlook Seminar, attended by more than 200 Thai clients and guests, four Credit Suisse analysts provided a comprehensive outlook on global financial markets. 

 

They were John Woods, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific, Robert Parker, senior adviser on investment strategy and products, Heng Koon How, senior investment strategist for Asia Pacific (foreign exchange), and Dan Fineman, head of Thailand equities research. 

 

Financial markets are likely to remain challenging in 2017, they said. Growth in global gross domestic product is expected to accelerate slightly, from 3.1 per cent to 3.5 per cent, albeit with pronounced regional differences. 

 

In combination with a slight rise in inflation and some monetary tightening, most asset classes are expected to generate low returns. Fundamental economic and social tensions provide an uncertain backdrop for investors. Credit Suisse’s top three Asia-Pacific investment themes are as follows.

 

Theme 1: The global infrastructure equities outlook is strong under expansionary fiscal policy

 

Global infrastructure stocks are beneficiaries of a trend across both developed and developing countries towards infrastructure investments. Asean is expected to spend more than a trillion dollars through 2030. Infrastructure investment is a key driver for Asean governments to stimulate economic growth.

 

Theme 2: The outlook for China equities remains positive

 

In equities, the Credit Suisse experts favour China, where the domestic economy should surprise on the upside. They remain positive on China equities given attractive valuation, a relatively stable political environment and a better economic outlook as the producer price index, retail sales, industrial production, and exports reflect a healthy economic recovery.

 

Theme 3: Investing in an environment of rising interest rates: Declines in real yields drive re-pricing of central-bank expectations

The anticipated trajectory for interest-rate increases is likely to be reasonably shallow, which suggests that some fixed-income instruments will perform better than others. The experts think the senior loan space is likely to perform well given that it offers some protection against a further rise in bond yields thanks to its floating nature, a strategy that still looks appealing in US dollars. 

 

Separately, they expect Asian US-dollar investment-grade credit to post total returns of around 3-6 per cent in 2017 supported by ample demand for yield.

 

Heng said the company expected the US dollar to remain strong this year as the US Federal Reserve proceeds with its gradual interest-rate increases and the US administration pushes forth with its fiscal stimulus. In Asia, most Asian currencies are likely to remain weak, with renewed depreciation in the yuan likely. 

 

In Thailand, thanks to robust trade and current-account surpluses, the baht had a strong start to the year. However, renewed baht weakness is likely going forward, Heng said. Thailand’s economy has yet to recover meaningfully, export recovery appears uncertain and domestic consumption remains weak. Overall, in line with broader strength of the dollar, Credit Suisse believes the baht is likely to continue to weaken.

 

 Parker said global GDP growth should improve, with the US at 2.5 per cent, the euro zone at 1.7 per cent and Japan at more than 1 per cent, and the firm also sees that growth is improving in emerging economies. Against this backdrop, he and his colleagues think the key risks are interest-rate increases and a strong dollar in the US, political developments in Europe, an appreciating yen and capital flows for emerging markets. 

 

Taking into account risk and rewards, investment opportunities should focus on short-duration fixed income with a focus on credit risk, US-dollar currency exposure, emerging FX and fixed-income assets, domestic equity sectors in the US, exporters outside the US and such sectors as information technology, healthcare and infrastructure globally.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/business/EconomyAndTourism/30309078

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-03-15

[the guest]

Of course against EU currencies, it remains strong

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

In Asia, most Asian currencies are likely to remain weak, with renewed depreciation in the yuan likely. 

So goes the yuan, so goes Thailand.

1 hour ago, webfact said:

In Thailand, thanks to robust trade and current-account surpluses

Thai treasury reserves down 85% since coup. But Govt not worried about treasury reserves, confident of Finance Ministry management skills. Minister of Finance says cash reserves do not reflect the government's financial status.

So Go Fish on current-account surpluses.

[12DrinkMore]

1 hour ago, Srikcir said:

Thai treasury reserves down 85% since coup. But Govt not worried about treasury reserves, confident of Finance Ministry management skills. Minister of Finance says cash reserves do not reflect the government's financial status.

Those are public sector finances. A developing country like Thailand does not need to build up treasury reserves, they should be spent into the economy. A build up of treasury reserves means the government has been taxing too much or issuing too much government debt. Both of which extract money from the private sector. 

 

1 hour ago, Srikcir said:

So Go Fish on current-account surpluses.

That is a net private sector surplus of exports minus imports. It results in a net inflow of foreign reserves which could end up in several places, but are hopefully spent on investment and wages, boosting the economy.

[12DrinkMore]

3 hours ago, the guest said:

Of course against EU currencies, it remains strong

Of course, have you taken a look at the economies of the EU and the UK?

 

The chickens have taken a long time to come home to roost, but the flock has arrived.

 

Maladministration, hubris and the poor decision to move Europe to a single currency have screwed it up. You can firmly put the blame on stupidity and self-interest amongt the politicians and clueless economists, who are doing their best to get economies to work according to how their models say they should.

[Kabula]

Probably not for long if the insanity continues.

 

I don't know where Trump will find all the money to do all his projects, especially if he plans on decreasing taxes.

 

It seems the new jobs he is creating will take time, while millions are losing jobs with many of the brand stores closing, personal, small business bankruptcies accelerating, and fuel taxes declining.

 

If Obama Care is not discontinued and a better plan put in place fast, there will be more bankruptcies from seniors who have not been able to save for many years with low interest rates.

 

If interest rates are increased, stock holders will be running for the doors, real estate and new car sales will retreat. And, many of those who borrowed cheap money will not be able to make monthly payments if rates are increased. Especially, if they moved the money to foreign countries where the currency they have to use to pay off the loans has retreated substantially.

 

In my opinion, if Americans don't get on the same page, everything will collapse and soon with what is happening now.

 

I wish Trump the best, but if you study the economics, it seems to be a major uphill battle and you can only print money for so long before hyperinflation works against all of it. History has shown us all paper currencies fail if back by nothing over time.

 

And when they do, and world economies fail, they take us to war! 

 

[Mousehound]

Actually, I doubt that the European  economists are clueless.  I would expect them to be as good as any other  economists. So that begs the question as to why things go wrong.  They go wrong because either economics just can't get it right or politicians ignore the economists advice or both. 

[Nice Boyd]

38 minutes ago, Kabula said:

Probably not for long if the insanity continues.

 

I don't know where Trump will find all the money to do all his projects, especially if he plans on decreasing taxes.

 

It seems the new jobs he is creating will take time, while millions are losing jobs with many of the brand stores closing, personal, small business bankruptcies accelerating, and fuel taxes declining.

 

If Obama Care is not discontinued and a better plan put in place fast, there will be more bankruptcies from seniors who have not been able to save for many years with low interest rates.

 

If interest rates are increased, stock holders will be running for the doors, real estate and new car sales will retreat. And, many of those who borrowed cheap money will not be able to make monthly payments if rates are increased. Especially, if they moved the money to foreign countries where the currency they have to use to pay off the loans has retreated substantially.

 

In my opinion, if Americans don't get on the same page, everything will collapse and soon with what is happening now.

 

I wish Trump the best, but if you study the economics, it seems to be a major uphill battle and you can only print money for so long before hyperinflation works against all of it. History has shown us all paper currencies fail if back by nothing over time.

 

And when they do, and world economies fail, they take us to war! 

 

How can you wish a Moron , The Best

[fvw53]

38 minutes ago, Mousehound said:

Actually, I doubt that the European  economists are clueless.  I would expect them to be as good as any other  economists. So that begs the question as to why things go wrong.  They go wrong because either economics just can't get it right or politicians ignore the economists advice or both. 

Economy is NOT a science :  indeed the human factor is more than 50%...for instance if to-morrow the Saudi monarchy is overthrown all economic models will be out of the window.

- the great and arrogant rating agencies such as Moody's, Fitch, Standard & Poor's had no clue of a coming great economic crash of 2008 until the day Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. The great "oracle" which was Alan Greenspan studied the precedents of the 1929 crash but during his days at the Fed he said to believe the financial sector would regulate itself. 

- Nobel Price for Economy laureates went bankrupt after they applied their theories in a company :  http://harvardmagazine.com/2001/01/risk-without-reward.html

- a good economy is when people believe the economy is good / a bad economy is when people believe the economy is bad  :  but when does the "click of change" happen? 

Investors are like a pack of young dogs : if one dogs discovers a good tree to pee then all dogs will run to that tree...until one dog starts to bark and panic sets in.

Edited March 15, 2017 by fvw53

[morrobay]

50 minutes ago, Kabula said:

Probably not for long if the insanity continues.

 

I don't know where Trump will find all the money to do all his projects, especially if he plans on decreasing taxes.

 

It seems the new jobs he is creating will take time, while millions are losing jobs with many of the brand stores closing, personal, small business bankruptcies accelerating, and fuel taxes declining.

 

If Obama Care is not discontinued and a better plan put in place fast, there will be more bankruptcies from seniors who have not been able to save for many years with low interest rates.

 

If interest rates are increased, stock holders will be running for the doors, real estate and new car sales will retreat. And, many of those who borrowed cheap money will not be able to make monthly payments if rates are increased. Especially, if they moved the money to foreign countries where the currency they have to use to pay off the loans has retreated substantially.

 

In my opinion, if Americans don't get on the same page, everything will collapse and soon with what is happening now.

 

I wish Trump the best, but if you study the economics, it seems to be a major uphill battle and you can only print money for so long before hyperinflation works against all of it. History has shown us all paper currencies fail if back by nothing over time.

 

And when they do, and world economies fail, they take us to war! 

 

Re: money for projects. There are plans to streamline federal departments, ie eliminate massive duplicate expenses.

Millions losing jobs ??.Latest jobs report added about 235 000 + bring manufacturing jobs back to U.S.

Interest rates : Trying to have it both ways ^ Trumps fiscal policies : Infrastructure investment in ports,  rails, bridges , roads, 3rd world airports  will create jobs and attract business investment. Interest rate increases will increase inflows.

The.years of sugar cool aid  money printing monetary   policy for the sole benefit of the stock market are finally over.

It was Bush .who  took the U.S. to  the wasted and disasterous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan , then Obama with the Libya disaster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[Lingba]

weak???...its no where close to weak now

[elgordo38]

2 hours ago, 12DrinkMore said:

You can firmly put the blame on stupidity and self-interest amongt the politicians and clueless economists,

More than enough of this to go around. 

[morrobay]

4 hours ago, Kabula said:

Probably not for long if the insanity continues.

 

In my opinion, if Americans don't get on the same page, everything will collapse and soon with what is happening now.

 

 

 

If Americans dont get on same page :  

Are you referring to the tens of thousands of Obama political appointees ( hacks) who are embedded  in the executive branch. And on a mission to sabotage Trump,Including leaking classified material

Or are you referring to the hundreds of thousands of anarchists and saps having a hissy fit that Clinton lost.

Solution : Get rid of the hacks in executive branch.

Re the anarchists out in streets. Thats what martial law is for.

[Kabula]

5 hours ago, Nice Boyd said:

How can you wish a Moron , The Best

What is your bias?

 

Are you a  communist? 

[Nice Boyd]

What is your bias?
 
Are you a  communist? 

Don't be a Fool, he's brought nothing to the table, Trumpanzee


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[elgordo38]

2 hours ago, morrobay said:

If Americans dont get on same page :  

Are you referring to the tens of thousands of Obama political appointees ( hacks) who are embedded  in the executive branch. And on a mission to sabotage Trump,Including leaking classified material

Or are you referring to the hundreds of thousands of anarchists and saps having a hissy fit that Clinton lost.

Solution : Get rid of the hacks in executive branch.

Re the anarchists out in streets. Thats what martial law is for.

Oh yea who are without blame cast the first stone. 

[wakeupplease]

Met up with a friend over from LOS last night she runs a big company there, Hows business I said? She replied bad and getting worse, Now she sells women's things which never go out of fashion or stop selling as our lovely women need it so they think.

Its getting tight then must be the answer?

[Kabula]

16 hours ago, Nice Boyd said:

Don't be a Fool, he's brought nothing to the table, Trumpanzee


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

Your a fool and ignorant of the factual evidence.

 

He has brought more to the table and fulfilled many of his promises in the first 50 days than any sitting President in the past.

 

Wake up!

 

In my opinion you do no political research or you are a Troll!

 

Your short responses give you away.

[timendres]

On 3/14/2017 at 11:58 PM, Nice Boyd said:

How can you wish a Moron , The Best

 

It is not a wish for Trump so much as a wish for the USA.

Even if you do not like a leader, you can hope he does well for the sake of his country.