Thailand pretty darned dangerous for Americans says wonky website

[Jingthing]

Not many Americans visit or live in Thailand compared to Mexico.

But on average, Thailand is much more dangerous for Americans than Mexico.

That and other wonky danger to Americans "facts" on offer here!

 

Quote

We found that Mexico, Mali, and Israel have been targeted by the most travel advisories in recent years, but that Americans are more likely to face life-threatening danger in Thailand, Pakistan, and Honduras. Indeed, warnings and deadly violence are correlated on the whole. And fortunately, some travelers - at least those headed to the Philippines or Egypt - seem to heed these advisories, as those countries see dropoffs in tourism following warnings.

 

https://priceonomics.com/ranking-the-most-dangerous-countries-for-american/

Edited March 18, 2017 by Jingthing

[55Jay]

If you're going to rub your knuckles over that, compared to what you actually know, then you might as well pack up and leave.  Where was it again?  Arizona?  Florida?

[tutsiwarrior]

I'd say that tourists of whatever nationality are a lot more intrepid than expat residents...we stay at home and make curried beans and flatbread and have regular bowel movements...

[impulse]

What's wonky about it?  All discussions of relative safety need to start with the numbers, and not some warm fuzzy feeling by someone who's been there, done that- and survived it X number of times.

 

"Dangerous" as all these places are, it's interesting that over 99.996% of US tourists survive all of them.  (If I'm reading the numbers correctly, and the numbers are accurate- neither of which am I vouching for)

 

Edited March 19, 2017 by impulse

[Thanyaburi Mac]

Check out the stats and reports here:

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/statistics/deaths.html

[impulse]

22 minutes ago, Thanyaburi Mac said:

Check out the stats and reports here:

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/statistics/deaths.html

 

Great link, Thanks!

 

I noticed that in the past 11 years, 106 Americans died in traffic accidents, 84 (reported) suicides, 21 homicides, 14 deaths were drug related, and 1 (count 'em, one) was from terrorist action in the South- 2006 in Hat Yai.  

 

(That's why I went back 11 years instead of 10- to capture that one terrorist death)

 

BTW, the beaches down there are pretty darn nice...

 

Edited March 19, 2017 by impulse

[steven100]

I would much sooner live in Thailand than Mexico ....

 

100%  .....    this wonky website is not correct.  

[impulse]

Just now, steven100 said:

I would much sooner live in Thailand than Mexico ....

 

100%  .....    this wonky website is not correct.   

 

Got any numbers to back that up?  Other than the warm fuzzy?

[steven100]

2 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

Got any numbers to back that up?  Other than the warm fuzzy?

lol ...  no ,   just the feeling  :)

but mexican food is #1

[impulse]

10 minutes ago, steven100 said:

lol ...  no ,   just the feeling  :)

but mexican food is #1

 

I'd prefer Thailand, too- if it weren't for that 60 hour round trip slog to go back and visit family who live a 2-3 hours' flight from Mexico.  But that 60 hours trumps any minuscule safety differential, even if it does go the other direction based on true and accurate numbers- which are not guaranteed here.

 

Besides, the numbers are very different for an old fart that doesn't drink, is in bed around dark- thirty, and doesn't chase women for sport.  But I doubt we'll ever see those stats published.  (Edit:  'cause there's not enough of us to count...)

Edited March 19, 2017 by impulse

[whatawonderfulday]

Not sure about American safety in Thailand but currently it is pretty damn dangerous for most people with the 2nd highest accident death toll in the world, and that is only fatalities that occur at the scene of an accident.  Those DOA or pass away from their injuries later don't get put into the statistics so it is probably the most dangerous place in the world.

[lopburi3]

3 hours ago, tutsiwarrior said:

I'd say that tourists of whatever nationality are a lot more intrepid than expat residents...we stay at home and make curried beans and flatbread and have regular bowel movements...

But you, of all people, know you are not safe in your home.  

[CaptHaddock]

The risk statistics from pricenomics study should be discounted by the residual risk of staying at home which, depending on where you live in the US, could be high.  Assuming that travel is a discretionary activity, what matters is the excess risk one assumes by going abroad.

 

For instance, is a black American who lives in Missouri and drives a car with one taillight out safer there or in Thailand?

[impulse]

18 minutes ago, CaptHaddock said:

The risk statistics from pricenomics study should be discounted by the residual risk of staying at home which, depending on where you live in the US, could be high.  Assuming that travel is a discretionary activity, what matters is the excess risk one assumes by going abroad.

 

For instance, is a black American who lives in Missouri and drives a car with one taillight out safer there or in Thailand?

 

True.  But that’s a tough one to calculate because of the difference in the demographics between those who are healthy and affluent enough to take such a holiday, and the average.

 

For example, these stats say that 3.2 US tourists out of 100,000 died on holiday in Thailand.  If you assume an average 2 week holiday, you’d multiply that by 26 to get 83 out of 100,000 tourists died per 52 weeks (1 year) in country.

 

Given a 75 year average lifespan, you’d expect 100,000/75 = 1,330 out of 100,000 to die at home each year.  (Okay, that math isn’t 100% valid, but it’s close enough)  That would mean that the death rate for Americans at home is 16X higher than the death rate for Americans touring Thailand.

 

So it looks like the best thing for Americans to do to increase longevity is to get the heck out of the USA.  And that was true even before Trump...

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

This is not correct. I followed the original statistics used in the original article and it is not correct. Eleven Americans died in Thailand compared to 78 in the Phillipines. But the per capita deaths was much higher  in Thailand because the people doing the stats got it wrong. According to them 3 million Americans visit the Phillipines and only 300 k Thailand. The correct figure is around a million to each country. This changes the per capita figure. I didnt check it for every country but this mistake cast doubt over the article. 

[Blackheart1916]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

 

True.  But that’s a tough one to calculate because of the difference in the demographics between those who are healthy and affluent enough to take such a holiday, and the average.

 

For example, these stats say that 3.2 US tourists out of 100,000 died on holiday in Thailand.  If you assume an average 2 week holiday, you’d multiply that by 26 to get 83 out of 100,000 tourists died per 52 weeks (1 year) in country.

 

 

 

Given a 75 year average lifespan, you’d expect 100,000/75 = 1,330 out of 100,000 to die at home each year.  (Okay, that math isn’t 100% valid, but it’s close enough)  That would mean that the death rate for Americans at home is 16X higher than the death rate for Americans touring Thailand.

 

 

 

So it looks like the best thing for Americans to do to increase longevity is to get the heck out of the USA.  And that was true even before Trump...

 

I don't know if all that is correct, but man it looks impressive, well done !!

[Kabula]

Is this fake news?

 

Hey, the drug cartels are not cutting off heads and placing them in the resort cities in Thailand like Mexico!  And I've never seen people hanging by the neck from freeway overpasses like in Mexico.

 

Having lived in Arizona for 30 years and in my Insurance Adjustment business I was  in Mexico recovering stolen and wrecked vehicles on a regular basis. I worked with the Mexican Police Chiefs and  prosecutors for many years.  I still stay in touch with old friends who's ceased going to Mexico many years ago.

 

I dated a Mexican woman for sometime years ago and  I ran into her in Costa Rica. She has a home in Hermisillo, Mexico and she told me she won't even go back there to rent it out because it's so dangerous on the roads.

 

 I have lived in Thailand for 11 years and there is absolutely no comparison of the crime in Mexico versus Thailand.   For your information, there's been a Civil War in Mexico for many years.  Many people are hungry with no jobs or low paying jobs and that is why they risk their lives crossing the border and walking for many miles across a hot desert.

[reallybigken]

2 hours ago, impulse said:

 

Got any numbers to back that up?  Other than the warm fuzzy?

Well from the same web site (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/statistics/deaths.html) there were 3343 deaths of Americans in Mexico and there were 391 in Thailand from October 2002 to December 2016 ...... this doesn't take into count the number of Americans traveling to Mexico or Thailand.

 

[impulse]

13 minutes ago, reallybigken said:

Well from the same web site (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/statistics/deaths.html) there were 3343 deaths of Americans in Mexico and there were 391 in Thailand from October 2002 to December 2016 ...... this doesn't take into count the number of Americans traveling to Mexico or Thailand.

 

According to the article linked in the OP, there were 208 X as many Americans visiting Mexico as Thailand. (71,608,500 in Mexico vs 343,500 in Thailand).  You're saying that there were 8.5 X as many Americans killed in Mexico as in Thailand.

 

Passing judgment on none of those numbers myself, if they are true- I'd go with Mexico being safer for American tourists.

[FritsSikkink]

3 hours ago, impulse said:

 

Got any numbers to back that up?  Other than the warm fuzzy?

American arrivals from 2016-2009:

974,632

867,520

763,520

823,486

768,638

681,748

611,792   627,074

according to wonky website only 343,500

[impulse]

1 minute ago, FritsSikkink said:

American arrivals from 2016-2009:

974,632

867,520

763,520

823,486

768,638

681,748

611,792   627,074

according to wonky website only 343,500

 

Good point, but I arrived 4 times in 2016... And I'm an expat, not flying in from the USA.  Perhaps they're only counting tourists?

 

It would be interesting to see a drill down of the data, but that's always been an exercise in futility when tourist $$$ are at stake.  

 

Still, I'd lean toward believing the discrepancies were consistent, if not accurate. 

[bushdoctor]

I've lived in both Mexico and Thailand. Of course one needs to take common sense precautions anywhere, but I felt safe enough in both. That said, I definitely feel safer in Thailand. 

[elgordo38]

7 hours ago, tutsiwarrior said:

I'd say that tourists of whatever nationality are a lot more intrepid than expat residents...we stay at home and make curried beans and flatbread and have regular bowel movements...

I seemed to have struck out on all three. 

[elgordo38]

21 minutes ago, bushdoctor said:

I've lived in both Mexico and Thailand. Of course one needs to take common sense precautions anywhere, but I felt safe enough in both. That said, I definitely feel safer in Thailand. 

Quote button working again but the site is registering 2 copies of every post. I have lived in both to and concur with your statement and yes I feel safer here. 

[bushdoctor]

Also the data may be correct, but is only as good as the questions asked. I would like to know out if those killed (may they Rest In Peace) how many put themselves in a dangerous situation? That is key info that's missing. If acting abusive, wearing jewelry, overly drunk, your odds of something bad happening increase exponentially. 

[Thaidream]

It is my opinion that a lot depends upon age; time of the day or night that one travels; mode of travel and many other factors.  If I was to venture a guess- Mexico would be the most dangerous; America next; and Thailand having little danger. According to the State Department- from 2002 through 2016-  391 American died in Thailand from all causes.  In Germany during the same period 287 Americans died from all causes.  In mexico, 3,318 Americans died from all causes.

I am never afraid in Thailand anywhere- the key is to avoid confrontations; control your drinking ; and drive slowly when operating a vehicle. Do not drive the same way the Thais do.

[hdkane]

4 hours ago, CaptHaddock said:

The risk statistics from pricenomics study should be discounted by the residual risk of staying at home which, depending on where you live in the US, could be high.  Assuming that travel is a discretionary activity, what matters is the excess risk one assumes by going abroad.

 

For instance, is a black American who lives in Missouri and drives a car with one taillight out safer there or in Thailand?

Please...let the Black guy in Thailand act as he does in the USA, and then make a judgment...a White person is about 20 times more likely to be killed by a Black person, than vice versa...

[bushdoctor]

13 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

It is my opinion that a lot depends upon age; time of the day or night that one travels; mode of travel and many other factors.  If I was to venture a guess- Mexico would be the most dangerous; America next; and Thailand having little danger. According to the State Department- from 2002 through 2016-  391 American died in Thailand from all causes.  In Germany during the same period 287 Americans died from all causes.  In mexico, 3,318 Americans died from all causes.

I am never afraid in Thailand anywhere- the key is to avoid confrontations; control your drinking ; and drive slowly when operating a vehicle. Do not drive the same way the Thais do.

Died from "all causes" Traffic deaths? If those are included in the data forget it...555. Traffic deaths in Thailand on motorbikes and in general are probably amoung the highest in the world. 

[cardinalblue]

Impulse...you don't compare tourist stats to where they reside...tourists are usually healthy and don't have the medical problems if one lives long enough will eventually become a statistic...

 

pick tourists from from a foreign country and compare their death rate in America against American tourists in thailand...a good % of senior Americans are chronically sick and invalid unable to travel - should not be included in your tourist comparison...

 

compare apples to apples...

Edited March 19, 2017 by cardinalblue

[Thaidream]

Regarding race death statistics- Black victims are mostly killed by blacks;  they seldom kill white people; Whites kill whites and seldom kill black people. Don't believe the stereotypes that are always wrong.  Check it out via the FBI murder rate stats.

There are few African Americans that come to Thailand thus their death rate in Thailand would be very low.

It would be interesting to know what Nationality that visits or lives in Thailand has the highest number of deaths by all causes (excluding Thais of course).