Baht expected to strengthen to 21-month high

[Berkshire]

On 7/1/2017 at 8:57 AM, HHTel said:

I think you should look to yourself before making stupid comments.  The crash of '97 was in part due to the Thai government pegging the baht to the dollar.  The baht crashed after the foreign reserves had all been used up maintaining the exchange rate and they had to 'unpeg' the baht and let it float.  The result was a very  rapid crash.  The Yuan and Yen had already devalued and the US economy was booming.  Nobody was buying baht.  If they'd floated it then the crash would not have been so rapid and not as severe.

I the BOT are supporting the baht to the same extent, then it could lead to another crash.  But of course, the government, being Thai, will never admit to being part of anything negative.  "It's the fault of those nasty foreigner!"

Gamini is more correct than you are.  What happened in 1997 can't happen today.  The current exchange rates are more about market forces than any government intervention.  If anything, Thailand has been accused of not letting the baht rise even more....

 

[Central bank Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob has rejected other claims that Thailand is limiting the currency’s climb for an unfair trade advantage, saying it steps in only when inflows surge.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-29/thailand-copes-with-super-baht-20-years-after-currency-crashed

 

Also from the article, about 70% of Thailand's economy is export-driven.  That doesn't even include tourism, which is another 7-10%.  So if the Thai government wanted to manipulate the THB, they would logically try to make it weaker.  But that's not happening, is it?  You guys should refrain from making arguments that don't make any sense. 

 

[HHTel]

This debate could go on for ever.  My post was related specifically to the '97 crash.  One would hope the the Thai government has learned from that.  I agree that exchange rates are, in general, determined by market forces.  They do utilise a managed-float exchange policy.  That does allow the baht to react to market forces, a change from management historically.

 

Quote

The Bank of Thailand regularly intervenes in the market to prevent excessive volatility and achieve economic policy targets that include preventing the Baht from growing too strong or too weak against the currencies of Thailand’s major trading partners. 

 

 

 

[Momofarang]

On 4/18/2017 at 11:56 AM, gamini said:

pretty ignorant post. You obviously know nothing about exchange rates. They are controlled by market forces, not by the government.

Actually central banks control interest rates. Raising interest rates increases demand on the affected currency, hence its market value. Is the Head of the Federal reserve a friend of the loud idiot?

[Mad mick]

On 18/04/2017 at 2:56 PM, gamini said:

pretty ignorant post. You obviously know nothing about exchange rates. They are controlled by market forces, not by the government.

Know their not mate you just keep printing money , its only paper .

[Naam]

On 7/7/2017 at 4:28 PM, Momofarang said:

Actually central banks control interest rates. Raising interest rates increases demand on the affected currency, hence its market value. Is the Head of the Federal reserve a friend of the loud idiot?

the recent move of treasury yields are proof that not only the FED but also the market controls interest rates.

[Gumballl]

On 6/26/2017 at 6:39 AM, welovethailand said:

When ever you are told something is expected to rise, its probably ready to crash.

Look at the fake Dow Jones. No one is investing except "the Plunger protection group".  (the FED, with printed paper)

The Dow is higher than ever, but do you know ANYONE who has got a boost in their Retirement accounts?

No One. Its a bubble ready to burst.

prove me wrong.

 

 

I know myself quite well, thank you.

 

One of my retirement fund's value has risen 175%+ in the last 8 years, and if you look at the last 12 years, then it's 120%+.

 

I, and like most people, work and contribute to a 401K retirement program.  Even if the stock market were to remain flat, year after year, I would still earn 5% of my yearly income from my employer (and I have friends with other employers that pay even more than that).  In an effort to reduce this to layman's terms, if I contribute 5% of my income to my retirement fund, and my employer matches that, then in effect I am doubling my money.  Of course, if the market goes down, then my investments will follow.  But if I continue contributing, whether in the bad times or the good, in the end I will do alright.

 

Btw, as I near my desired retirement age, I will shift some of my investments from the highly volatile/profitable funds to something more secure (e.g. bonds), to guard myself against any downturns in the market.

 

You seem like a pessimist, that perhaps got left behind during the market upswing in the 2009-2010 time frame.  As it is well known, we can't all be winners.  As for the the current bubble, I'm sure it will pop someday.  But then another will take its place.  You merely have to be in a position to take advantage of the upswings in the market -- and to learn to manage (financial) risks.

 

Crying that the sky is falling, or that the FED or the current administration are to blame, it very shortsighted.  They will come and go; the market will always be there.

 

P.S.  I realize that my post, and the one I responding to, are waaaay off topic.  That being said, it was not too long ago (early 2017) that the US dollar was trading at 34.x Baht.  Now the Baht is in the upper 33.x range.  It seems to me that the Baht has already strengthened, albeit very little.

[Srikcir]

On 7/7/2017 at 4:28 PM, Momofarang said:

Is the Head of the Federal reserve a friend of the loud idiot?

No.

She's too smart.

During Trump's campaign he wanted to replace Chairman Janet Yellen when her term ends in 2018. Now he says as POTUS he's open to her serving another term.

http://fortune.com/2017/04/13/donald-trump-janet-yellen-3/

Time will tell but with Trump time can be measured in minutes.

[sawadeeken]

I heard reports back when Taksin was the main 'ringleader' that he had tight connections with the 'right' people in offices that control (or oversaw) the rise and fall of the Baht and that he would trade currencies at the proper times to make money for his own pocket each time the Baht went up and peaked and when it went down to the bottom............

Not surprising if the present regime has learned a bit from him and doing the same............

[Naam]

35 minutes ago, sawadeeken said:

I heard reports back when Taksin was the main 'ringleader' that he had tight connections with the 'right' people in offices that control (or oversaw) the rise and fall of the Baht and that he would trade currencies at the proper times to make money for his own pocket each time the Baht went up and peaked and when it went down to the bottom............

Not surprising if the present regime has learned a bit from him and doing the same............

[Ramen087]

On 7/3/2017 at 2:40 PM, Berkshire said:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-29/thailand-copes-with-super-baht-20-years-after-currency-crashed

 

Also from the article, about 70% of Thailand's economy is export-driven.  That doesn't even include tourism, which is another 7-10%.  So if the Thai government wanted to manipulate the THB, they would logically try to make it weaker.  But that's not happening, is it?  You guys should refrain from making arguments that don't make any sense. 

 

Export driven economies always prefer their currency to reside on the weaker side of the scale. It makes their products more attractive to their pool of buyers, also knows as export destinations or trade partners. 

[talahtnut]

On 18/04/2017 at 8:35 AM, chilli42 said:

Market forces in response to political and central bank words and actions

We are a significant market force...Tourism. 

[SheungWan]

On 8/23/2017 at 2:53 PM, Ramen087 said:

Export driven economies always prefer their currency to reside on the weaker side of the scale. It makes their products more attractive to their pool of buyers, also knows as export destinations or trade partners. 

Not necessarily and not if it is regularly applied to make up for poor productivity and inferior product.

[SheungWan]

On 7/8/2017 at 1:59 PM, Srikcir said:

No.

She's too smart.

During Trump's campaign he wanted to replace Chairman Janet Yellen when her term ends in 2018. Now he says as POTUS he's open to her serving another term.

http://fortune.com/2017/04/13/donald-trump-janet-yellen-3/

Time will tell but with Trump time can be measured in minutes.

Indications are that he is interviewing others right now. The Donald likes his appointments to be 'loyal'. Odds currently running against her, but it is a risk he is taking to maybe picking a lightweight.

Edited September 30, 2017 by SheungWan

[owl sees all]

When the petrodollar crashes in December 2018 most of the world's currencies will go with it. All that stored rice will come in handy for barter.

 

The FED keeps the rate low so the banks can continue to proffit.

[talahtnut]

25 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

When the petrodollar crashes in December 2018 most of the world's currencies will go with it. All that stored rice will come in handy for barter.

 

The FED keeps the rate low so the banks can continue to proffit.

How can you be so precise as December,  the petrodollar must be the worlds biggest fiddle..the Americans will do everything in their power to preserve it.

[SheungWan]

36 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

How can you be so precise as December,  the petrodollar must be the worlds biggest fiddle..the Americans will do everything in their power to preserve it.

Why would anybody want to ask a Conspiracy nut anything whatsoever?

[Senechal]

34 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

How can you be so precise as December,  the petrodollar must be the worlds biggest fiddle..the Americans will do everything in their power to preserve it.

 

The petrodollar can't last forever. Just as fossil fuels won't last forever.

 

But I agree with you: Military superpowers don't go silently into the night.

 

..and the US has a long and very proven track record of going to war to protect the petrodollar relationship. 

 

 

[talahtnut]

14 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Why would anybody want to ask a Conspiracy nut anything whatsoever?

It appears that conspiracy theories often turn out to be the truth. 

[owl sees all]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

How can you be so precise as December,  the petrodollar must be the worlds biggest fiddle..the Americans will do everything in their power to preserve it.

 

They are doing 'everything in their power' to preserve it but time is running out; fast.

 

Russia and China are doing deals that by-passes the dollar. Oil is being sold by Iran to both Russia and China for GOLD! The FED is churning out dollars like there is no tomorrow. They are printing money to buy back their own bonds. Saudi Arabia has 3 trillion of US bonds based on the petrodollar (one of two reasons why the US is ass kissing one of the world's worst regeims). The US would not want those dumped on the market.

 

China will - within the next 8 months - issue a GlobalYuan based on gold. If not fully then partially. Who will want to trade in dollars then?

 

The infrastructure of the US is in a dire mess. The billions and billions that were invested in fracking is in negative dollar. The US has no gold. What is stored in Fort Knox belongs to the FED which is owned by 21 individuals and banks. Bitcoin is worrying the hell out of Wall street.

 

It's all but over!!

Edited October 3, 2017 by owl sees all

[owl sees all]

40 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Why would anybody want to ask a Conspiracy nut anything whatsoever?

 

If the conspiracy nut is me then so be it.

 

Just look at the evidence!! I'm almost mainstream!!

Edited October 3, 2017 by owl sees all

[Naam]

1 hour ago, owl sees all said:

When the petrodollar crashes in December 2018 most of the world's currencies will go with it. All that stored rice will come in handy for barter.

 

The FED keeps the rate low so the banks can continue to proffit.

[Senechal]

21 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

 

China will - within the next 8 months - issue a GlobalYuan based on gold. If not fully then partially. Who will want to trade in dollars then?

 

 

This is a clear sign that someone has been reading too many loony goldbug blogs.

 

No China will absolutely not do anything of the sort. The world's biggest export economy has literally zero desire to have anything resembling a reserve currency. That would be economic suicide for China.

 

China's currency is currently pegged to the dollar for one and only one reason: Because they *don't* want the RMB/dollar spread to increase more than the set range and negatively affect exports.

 

Remember: Any country that has a reserve currency must mathematically have a negative balance of trade. (Triffin's paradox and all that). 

 

China likes things exactly the way they are. 

 

There are indeed very real threats to the dollar. China seizing  reserve currency status isn't one of them.

 

If China wants anything it's for the dollar to give way to the SDR or some other extra-national currency that limits US power. But China wanting their own reserve currency? Why in the *** would they want anything of the sort? That would be terrible for them.

 

 

Edited October 3, 2017 by Senechal

[Naam]

14 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Saudi Arabia has 3 trillion of US bonds based on the petrodollar (one of two reasons why the US is ass kissing one of the world's worst regeims). The US would not want those dumped on the market.

please Sir... stop torturing me with horror stories that causes roaring laughter and endangers the function og my keyboard. Saudi Arabia's total forex reserves as of december 2016 were valued at ~$ 580 billion.

[Naam]

6 minutes ago, Senechal said:

This is a clear sign that someone has been reading too many loony goldbug blogs.

[owl sees all]

Every time a major international deal is done. Weapon sales, oil, metals etc. it is done in dollars (petrodollars). The US gets a cut and it keeps the perceived importance of the dollar active. Changes are happening now!

 

Why was Sadam sorted and Libia invaded? The petrodollar! They were selling direct and bypassing the US. Iran is the biggest thorn in US's at the mo'. They will not toe the line over oil and currency and have nuclear weapons. Hence the distasteful but  cosy relationship between the US (and UK) with the Saudis. 

Edited October 3, 2017 by owl sees all

[Senechal]

17 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Every time a major international deal is done. Weapon sales, oil, metals etc. it is done in dollars (petrodollars). The US gets a cut and it keeps the perceived importance of the dollar active. Changes are happening now!

 

Why was Sadam sorted and Libia invaded? The petrodollar! They were selling direct and bypassing the US. Iran is the biggest thorn in US's at the mo'. They will not tow the line over oil and currency and have nuclear weapons. Hence the distasteful but  cosy relationship between the US )and UK) with the Saudis. 

 

It's almost like you just discovered the petrodollar relationship and you think it's major news that everyone doesn't already know.

 

... And you're moving the goalposts from your crazy bit about China's new gold supercurrency. 

 

But I agree with you on one note: The history of US military involvement in the mideast is indeed the history of enforcing the petrodollar relationship. The USD is backed by the largest military in history which in turn defends its transactional peg to oil. Pretty basic GeoPol 101 stuff there.

 

The only "changes happening now" that threaten that relationship are technological developments leading to lower fossil fuel consumption. But those aren't imminent.  

 

There are no military threats to the US that threaten the petrodollar. China has no interest in supplanting it with their own currency.

 

And no, the US doesn't get a "cut" of international dollar based deals. LOL.

 

 

Edited October 3, 2017 by Senechal

[owl sees all]

Just follow the money!! All this demonising of Iran, Russia and China is being orchestrated by the FED.

[owl sees all]

29 minutes ago, Senechal said:

If China wants anything it's for the dollar to give way to the SDR or some other extra-national currency that limits US power. But China wanting their own reserve currency? Why in the *** would they want anything of the sort? That would be terrible for them.

 

China is moving quietly but purposfully towards the day when it can do deals across the world in it's own currency. It is already but to just a few.

[Senechal]

Just now, owl sees all said:

 

China is moving quietly but purposfully towards the day when it can do deals across the world in it's own currency. It is already but to just a few.

 

That's just completely ignorant. 

[Senechal]

2 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

 

China is moving quietly but purposfully towards the day when it can do deals across the world in it's own currency. It is already but to just a few.

 

LOL. Okay, I'm out. It's been fun playing.