In what ways would Thailand be affected economically if World War 3 starts?

midas · April 21, 2017

17 minutes ago, PeCeDe said:

Interesting question, and one most of us shy away from, if only because of the horrifying scenes that cross through all our minds... That is why it's often referred to as "the Apocalypse". I know from a practical point of view my income would come to a complete and immediate stop, and I don't believe any amount of current assets, even if held here in LOS would be of value for very long due to human nature, massive hyperinflation, gouging, shortages, public mayhem etc. etc. There's an interesting book written back in 1957, envisioning just such a collapse, it's called "On the Beach" and takes place in Australia immediately after just such a conflagration in the Northern Hemisphere. (WWIII), I remember being terrified reading the book when I was 10 or 11 years old, nothings changed.

If you're interested here's the Wiki on it, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(novel)

but 99% dont want it- so how on earth did humanity reach a stage where this will happen because of wishes of the 1% ?

KIWIBATCH · April 21, 2017

There will no effect on Thailand....within days of the nuke bombs being dropped..and the radio-active fallout heading to Thailand we will receive an assurance from "The Thai Dept of Don't Worry" that everything is under control

Thaidream · April 21, 2017

This is a most interesting question and I have to believe that should the Us and North Korea get into it- that China will stay neutral. China and the US are entwined economically to the point that the Chinese would stay out of the war. Why would China want to put everything at risk for a country like North Korea which is no advantage to it except as a buffer state from South Korea. Now it is possible that the Chinese could invade the North and control territory to ensure the buffer.

The worry I have is that Kim will continue to play with his nuclear arsenal and missiles and miscalculate. As of now, he has an untested missile that can reach the Western US. If he tests it and it fails- it shows his technology is lacking. If it goes off and heads for the Us- America will strike immediately and possibly end his regime. If I were him, I wouldn't test it at all.

What America needs to know from Kim is what he wants. And for that, America needs China to play the peacemaker or simply go to Kim and see if he will negotiate. To me, the most likely scenario is for China to take control of the North's nuclear program and for America to back away from a first strike and everyone lives another day.

If war did breakout-Thailand would be asked to allow American forces to stage in Thailand to use the airfields. I think Thailand's answer would involve consultation with China. Actually, America may get a better answer from Vietnam and Singapore for temporary basing. Thailand may want to stay neutral but give tacit support and some covert assistance to the Amereicans.

A war on the Korean Peninsula would be catastrophic as far as destruction and death. I really don't think Trump is qualified to make this decision. It will be the US military that makes the real decision on how to proceed. I would guess the US military to urge caution and not opt for war unless pushed beyond any other choice.

There will be some preliminary moves to watch for - such as deployment of US troops and planes to Asia prior to hostilities. These moves will be visible to both China and North Korea and scare the hell out of a lot of people.

PeCeDe · April 21, 2017

Good question Midas, just like why did nearly 50,000 Americans lose their lives in Vietnam, millions die in Cambodia, the Gulags, the first and second world war to name a few... seems to me it's pretty much always the greed of the few forced on the many.

blazes · April 21, 2017

Surely, one course of personal/private action would be to try to get on the earliest flight possible to New Zealand.

Thaidream · April 21, 2017

I completely agree- some of the decisions of the past 40 years have shown me that other forces are in play that drive politicians and the military to make huge mistakes in their decision making. War should be avoided at almost all costs but if Kim attacks first-the war will happen. I am totally against America using a first strike option.

PeCeDe · April 21, 2017

1 minute ago, blazes said:

Surely, one course of personal/private action would be to try to get on the earliest flight possible to New Zealand.

Nice thought, but what after that, move to the Antarctic?

midas · April 21, 2017

22 minutes ago, PeCeDe said:

Good question Midas, just like why did nearly 50,000 Americans lose their lives in Vietnam, millions die in Cambodia, the Gulags, the first and second world war to name a few... seems to me it's pretty much always the greed of the few forced on the many.

Or has the world's financial system reached the end of the road and do those in power think there is nowhere else to go but to start a war? In the last few weeks America certainly seems to be acting like it wants to start something somewhere? The likes of Gerald Celente who has an impressive record of trend forecasting have been forecasting the beginning of a world War since after the financial crisis in 2008

GERALD CELENTE REVEALS WHAT YOU’RE NOT BEING TOLD ABOUT THE RUSH TO WORLD WAR 3

Quote

Trends researcher Gerald Celente predicts war in the Middle East. He says, “It is out of control. What are people waiting for–an Archduke Ferdinand moment?” Celente thinks Israel bombing Syria means World War 3 is on its way. The cycle leading to war started with the crash of 2008. Celente says, “Crash, depression, currency wars . . . trade wars and then real wars. That’s what we’re seeing again.” Celente charges, “This is a proxy war against Iran because when Syria is choked off, then Iran is left alone surrounded by enemies. So, that’s what we’re really looking at. The end game is Iran.” What would happen if Iran and Israel went to war? Would the Strait of Hormuz close, gasoline explode to $10 a gallon, markets implode? Celente says, “All of the above.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Gerald Celente, Publisher of the Trends Journal.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/gerald-celente-reveals-what-youre-not-being-told-about-the-rush-to-world-war-3-2/

Edited April 21, 2017 by midas

PeCeDe · April 21, 2017

34 minutes ago, cyberfarang said:

On The Beach, was also made into a film that starred Gregory Peck. Remember watching that. In the event of a full scale war, no one will benefit.

There could be one benefit, and that is we'll all stop worrying about that noisy Soi dog down the street.

Xobtsiwt · April 21, 2017

You mean apart from becoming an even bigger whorehouse than it already is, servicing incrementally greater numbers of servicemen than was the case during the Vietnam war?

Ricardo · April 21, 2017

I suspect that the TAT would announce increased tourist-arrivals, at Swampy.

realenglish1 · April 21, 2017

On 4/20/2017 at 2:40 PM, Rob13 said:

Judging from WW2 and VN, my guess is they'd give aid and rights of port and air strips etc, to the country with the most influence on them.

Japan has built alot of public works projects in throughtout Thailand, the US still helps out militarily. My guess is the US and it's asian allies will take care of LOS.

The big question is how will the Chinese figure into it all.

My guess is that we will not be at war with Russia or China All have too much to lose Now having said that there are countries like Iran and N Korea that are causing problems. However they are no match for the 3 major powers and If I had to place money on which countries would come to assist the USA if there really was a major threat I would put my money on China in the end They where alias in the second world war so why not in there is another

Stevemercer · April 21, 2017

Thailand would try to stay 'neutral', but would seek to placate China. In the event of a real outbreak of hostilities, foreigners would need to evacuate Thailand (hopefully with the help of the various embassies).

The catalyst will be North Korea, but the country would be decimated if they used their limited nukes outside their territory. China would be forced to step in to restore order, stop refugees from swamping their borders and to ensure the strategic integrity of their borders. They will need to install a puppet regime, but, hopefully, won't repeat the mistake Russia made last time at the end of the Korean war.

canuckamuck · April 21, 2017

It depends entirely on who's playing.

As for being in a post or mid apocalyptic Thailand. I think I like my chances of survival up in my northern mountain village rather than Canada. Not many would survive the winter once the food ran out. But where I am, people living off the land is the normal condition.

IAMHERE · April 21, 2017

I think that WW3 will be over so quickly that Thailand will not have time to choose a side to be on.

elgordo38 · April 21, 2017

amulet sales and wrist ties would go through the roof.

eeyang wah · April 21, 2017

1 hour ago, KIWIBATCH said:

There will no effect on Thailand....within days of the nuke bombs being dropped..and the radio-active fallout heading to Thailand we will receive an assurance from "The Thai Dept of Don't Worry" that everything is under control

Spot on!

PeCeDe · April 21, 2017

1 minute ago, eeyang wah said:

Spot on!

I wonder how long it would take for me to row to New Zealand. No, on second thoughts for 350 Baht a day I could hire someone to do the rowing, and I'll navigate, drink copious Chang, probably drown, oh well, nice thought.

elgordo38 · April 21, 2017

59 minutes ago, PeCeDe said:

I wonder how long it would take for me to row to New Zealand. No, on second thoughts for 350 Baht a day I could hire someone to do the rowing, and I'll navigate, drink copious Chang, probably drown, oh well, nice thought.

If you can afford the boat I am sure you could hire a lot of panicky generals to do the rowing. They would however need a lot of room for suitcases. Who wants to start a life in another country empty handed.

1FinickyOne · April 21, 2017

On April 20, 2560 BE at 2:40 PM, Rob13 said:

Judging from WW2 and VN, my guess is they'd give aid and rights of port and air strips etc, to the country with the most influence on them.

Japan has built alot of public works projects in throughtout Thailand, the US still helps out militarily. My guess is the US and it's asian allies will take care of LOS.

The big question is how will the Chinese figure into it all.

The Chinese will send more tourists to wipe out the food supply via all you can eat buffets...

PeCeDe · April 21, 2017

To be blunt, should WWIII occur Thailands economy would be decimated beyond anyones wildest nightmares, and assuming, no direct close by nuclear strikes, nuclear winter and/or rampant spreading radiation, we would drive us back to agrarian style, hunting, and fishing methods of existence, not a pretty thought.

Being extremely cynical there is one brutal theory that we are just sophisticated carriers and inventions of our real Boss "DNA", in which case WWIII will merely be DNA's way of culling the herd so to speak, and which ever deity you subscribe to won't be of much help. Isn't that a terrible thought? Should we extinguish ourselves completely DNA will simply and cold heartedly go back to its drawing board and in a few millenia reinvent itself, and try again with another batch. That's one theory I definitely do not believe. Think I'll go back to listening to Coldplay and watching CNN.

midas · April 21, 2017

3 hours ago, realenglish1 said:

My guess is that we will not be at war with Russia or China All have too much to lose Now having said that there are countries like Iran and N Korea that are causing problems. However they are no match for the 3 major powers and If I had to place money on which countries would come to assist the USA if there really was a major threat I would put my money on China in the end They where alias in the second world war so why not in there is another

" I would put my money on China in the end "

I don't think so somehow

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/01/01/how-united-iran-russia-china-changing-world-better.html

midas · April 21, 2017

7 minutes ago, PeCeDe said:

To be blunt, should WWIII occur Thailands economy would be decimated beyond anyones wildest nightmares, and assuming, no direct close by nuclear strikes, nuclear winter and/or rampant spreading radiation, we would drive us back to agrarian style, hunting, and fishing methods of existence, not a pretty thought.

Being extremely cynical there is one brutal theory that we are just sophisticated carriers and inventions of our real Boss "DNA", in which case WWIII will merely be DNA's way of culling the herd so to speak, and which ever deity you subscribe to won't be of much help. Isn't that a terrible thought? Should we extinguish ourselves completely DNA will simply and cold heartedly go back to its drawing board and in a few millenia reinvent itself, and try again with another batch. That's one theory I definitely do not believe. Think I'll go back to listening to Coldplay and watching CNN.

................................and maybe with a little help from these people

http://themostimportantnews.com/archives/46-population-control-quotes-that-show-how-badly-the-elite-want-to-wipe-us-all-out

PeCeDe · April 21, 2017

8 minutes ago, midas said:

................................and maybe with a little help from these people

http://themostimportantnews.com/archives/46-population-control-quotes-that-show-how-badly-the-elite-want-to-wipe-us-all-out

I like Elon Musks ideas about getting the heck off this planet, and finally moving on to where we belong, The Stars.

F4UCorsair · April 22, 2017

19 hours ago, midas said:

................................and maybe with a little help from these people

http://themostimportantnews.com/archives/46-population-control-quotes-that-show-how-badly-the-elite-want-to-wipe-us-all-out

The elite want GROWTH to preserve their wealth and power. That the population is reduced/ wiped out within a century is of no consequence to them. They want wealth and power now, and that means growth, not death.

#26, Margaret Sanger is closest, and Al Gore wrong......as usual.

Edited April 22, 2017 by F4UCorsair

midas · April 22, 2017

2 hours ago, F4UCorsair said:

The elite want GROWTH to preserve their wealth and power. That the population is reduced/ wiped out within a century is of no consequence to them. They want wealth and power now, and that means growth, not death.

#26, Margaret Sanger is closest, and Al Gore wrong......as usual.

What growth? USA has had 10 straight years without 3% growth in GDP

the elites figure the robots will do anything humans can do plus more. A US employer interviewed 400 people for a position and only 180 passed a simple maths test.

The humans were only of use while they had the money to be consumers and that past ages ago which is why so many shopping malls are closing down.

Retiredandhappyhere · April 22, 2017

Surely, we all know by now that if World War 3 breaks out, it will have absolutely no effect whatsoever on "teflon" Thailand. In fact I am quite certain that the Thai P.M.has already written his speech saying so. Possibly followed by a new song congratulating the winning side.

F4UCorsair · April 23, 2017

On 4/22/2017 at 0:43 AM, PeCeDe said:

To be blunt, should WWIII occur Thailands economy would be decimated beyond anyones wildest nightmares, and assuming, no direct close by nuclear strikes, nuclear winter and/or rampant spreading radiation, we would drive us back to agrarian style, hunting, and fishing methods of existence, not a pretty thought.

Being extremely cynical there is one brutal theory that we are just sophisticated carriers and inventions of our real Boss "DNA", in which case WWIII will merely be DNA's way of culling the herd so to speak, and which ever deity you subscribe to won't be of much help. Isn't that a terrible thought? Should we extinguish ourselves completely DNA will simply and cold heartedly go back to its drawing board and in a few millenia reinvent itself, and try again with another batch. That's one theory I definitely do not believe. Think I'll go back to listening to Coldplay and watching CNN.

Anything negative to say??

F4UCorsair · April 23, 2017

On 4/22/2017 at 10:52 PM, midas said:

What growth? USA has had 10 straight years without 3% growth in GDP

the elites figure the robots will do anything humans can do plus more. A US employer interviewed 400 people for a position and only 180 passed a simple maths test.

The humans were only of use while they had the money to be consumers and that past ages ago which is why so many shopping malls are closing down.

This graph suggests otherwise, with 6/7 years above 3%, and three of those above 4%. Of course, the GFC impacted heavily, but when you look at the Dow, it was 14,000 pre GFC, and is 21,000 now, there is some growth in there.