France's Macron appears set for Elysee in runoff with Le Pen

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France's Macron appears set for Elysee in runoff with Le Pen

By Ingrid Melander and Pascale Antonie

REUTERS

 

Emmanuel Macron, head of the political movement En Marche !, or Onwards !, and candidate for the 2017 French presidential election, waves hand during in the first round of 2017 French presidential election at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France, April 23, 2017. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier

 

PARIS (Reuters) - Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen are set to face each other in a May 7 runoff for the French presidency after coming first and second in Sunday's first round of voting, according to multiple projections.

 

Though Macron, 39, is a comparative political novice who has never held elected office, opinion polls in the run-up to the ballot have consistently seen him easily winning the final clash against the 48-year-old Le Pen.

 

Sunday's outcome spells disaster for the two mainstream groupings that have dominated French politics for 60 years, and also reduces the prospect of an anti-establishment shock on the scale of Britain's vote last June to quit the EU and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president. (For a graphic on french presidential election, click http://tmsnrt.rs/2lPduBG)

 

The euro currency was quoted higher immediately after the first projections were issued, with banks quoting around $1.092 versus $1.072 on Friday evening, according to Reuters data.

 

In a race that was too close to call up to the last minute, Macron, a pro-European Union ex-banker and economy minister who founded his own party only a year ago, was projected to get 24 percent of the first-round vote by the pollster Harris, and 23.7 percent by Elabe.

 

Le Pen, leader of the anti-immigration and anti-EU National Front, was given 22 percent by both institutes. At least three further pollsters all projected broadly similar results.

 

Macron's supporters, gathered at a Paris conference centre burst into singing the national anthem, the Marseillaise, a few seconds after results came through. Many were under 25, reflecting some of the appeal of a man aiming to become France's youngest head of state since Napoleon.

 

Le Pen, who is herself bidding to make history as France's first female president, follows in the footsteps of her father, who founded the National Front and reached the second round of the presidential election in 2002.

 

Jean-Marie Le Pen was ultimately crushed when voters from right and left rallied around the conservative Jacques Chirac in order to keep out a party whose far-right, anti-immigrant views they considered unpalatably xenophobic.

 

His daughter has done much to soften her party's image, and found widespread support among young voters by pitching herself as an anti-establishment defender of French workers and French interests.

 

"RAMPANT GLOBALISATION"

 

"The great issue in this election is the rampant globalisation that is putting our civilisation at risk," she declared in her first word after results came through.

 

Nevertheless, Le Pen seems destined to suffer a similar fate to her father.

 

Defeated Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon, Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and defeated right-wing candidate Francois Fillon all urged voters to rally behind Macron in the second round.

 

Harris gave both Fillon, badly damaged by allegations that his wife had been paid from the public purse for work she did not do, and far-left contender Jean-Luc Melenchon 20 percent in the first round.

 

"This defeat is mine and it is for me and me alone to bear it," Fillon told a news conference, adding that he would now vote for Macron.

 

The result will mean a face-off between politicians with radically contrasting economic visions for a country whose economy lags that of its neighbours and where a quarter of young people are unemployed.

 

Macron favours gradual deregulation measures that will be welcomed by global financial markets, as well as cuts in state expenditure and the civil service. Le Pen wants to print money to finance expanded welfare payments and tax cuts, ditch the euro currency and possibly pull out of the EU.

 

Whatever the outcome on May 7, it will mean a redrawing of France's political landscape, which has been dominated for 60 years by mainstream groupings from the centre-left and centre-right, both of whose candidates faded.

 

Macron ally Gerard Collomb said the defeat of the mainstream centre-left Socialists and the centre-right Republicans showed a "deep malaise" in French society.

 

The final outcome on May 7 will influence France's standing in Europe and the world as a nuclear-armed, veto-wielding member of the U.N. Security Council and founding member of the organisation that transformed itself into the European Union.

 

(Additional reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta, Bate Felix, Michaela Cabrera, Michel Rose, Geert De Clercq, Mathieu Rosemain, John Irish, Andrew Callus, Sarah White in Paris, and Ilze Filks in Henin-Beaumont; Writing by Kevin Liffey; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-04-24

 

[dunroaming]

If Macron wins and it looks very likely he will, then it certainly stabilises the EU considerably.  This could in turn help with Brexit.  The EU has been understandably twitchy and determined to give no ground at all to the UK but if they feel more confident in their long term survival then they may be more inclined to cut us some slack.  On the other hand they may feel that bolstered by a Macron win they can actually harden their position against Brexit.

 

Of course we still have Germany to come and the result of that may throw things up in the air again!

[Andaman Al]

Make no mistake, this will not be a loss for Le Pen whatever the outcome. Just think about the Tsunami that has hit European politics for the extreme right to come a close second in a Presidential Election. Le Pen and her party have already carved out a huge victory with this first round trouncing of the other parties. Similar (but not quite as bad I think) as the USA we now have a completely polarised population in France who are pretty much 180 degrees out to each other. 75 years on from when the extreme right laid waste to Europe we now have a return of ultra nationalism, and just wait until the German elections start kicking off. If Macron wins and does not make a resounding success of the Presidency and the situation in France then at the next elections Le Pen and the extreme (by then more so) right will be in.

 

ISIS, Russia and anyone else with an axe to grind want Le Pen in. She represents maximum instability in Europe and the likely vaporisation of the European Union and the single currency. Think of the opportunities in that political and economic disarray for Putin and also for fundamental Islam for a moment. With Europe in turmoil and Trump and his failing, self serving lack lustre administration across the pond, Russia will be well on it's way to winning this game of chess and for ISIS the opportunity for Jihad will never be better. Maybe we will see Gold at $2K by the end of this year.

[dick dasterdly]

20 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

If Macron wins and it looks very likely he will, then it certainly stabilises the EU considerably.  This could in turn help with Brexit.  The EU has been understandably twitchy and determined to give no ground at all to the UK but if they feel more confident in their long term survival then they may be more inclined to cut us some slack.  On the other hand they may feel that bolstered by a Macron win they can actually harden their position against Brexit.

 

Of course we still have Germany to come and the result of that may throw things up in the air again!

It would be so much more advantageous to everyone concerned if the EU would recognise voters' grievances - and address them....

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

It would be so much more advantageous to everyone concerned if the EU would recognise voters' grievances - and address them....

That is happening in many EU countries at the moment. Immigration policies has been changed to tougher ones. There is just not much yelling about it as the extreme left has also noted that there is a problem, which needs to be addressed. 

[ilostmypassword]

9 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

It would be so much more advantageous to everyone concerned if the EU would recognise voters' grievances - and address them....

Which voters?

[Prbkk]

11 minutes ago, Andaman Al said:

Make no mistake, this will not be a loss for Le Pen whatever the outcome. Just think about the Tsunami that has hit European politics for the extreme right to come a close second in a Presidential Election. Le Pen and her party have already carved out a huge victory with this first round trouncing of the other parties. Similar (but not quite as bad I think) as the USA we now have a completely polarised population in France who are pretty much 180 degrees out to each other. 75 years on from when the extreme right laid waste to Europe we now have a return of ultra nationalism, and just wait until the German elections start kicking off. If Macron wins and does not make a resounding success of the Presidency and the situation in France then at the next elections Le Pen and the extreme (by then more so) right will be in.

 

ISIS, Russia and anyone else with an axe to grind want Le Pen in. She represents maximum instability in Europe and the likely vaporisation of the European Union and the single currency. Think of the opportunities in that political and economic disarray for Putin and also for fundamental Islam for a moment. With Europe in turmoil and Trump and his failing, self serving lack lustre administration across the pond, Russia will be well on it's way to winning this game of chess and for ISIS the opportunity for Jihad will never be better. Maybe we will see Gold at $2K by the end of this year.

No, no, no, no. Non.

She is not going to come within a bull's roar of the Presidency. More likely the widest margin loss in history. She is going to be trounced. 

This system means that nothing is left "on the table" in first round voting: those who support Le Pen ( an impressive 22% to be fair) have had their say. The remaining 78% effectively voted against her and will rally around Macron in Round 2.

The final margin in her defeat will be overwhelming.

[Jingthing]

I don't see how the fascist La Pen can win this, short of some kind of very major Macron scandal. The last thing French people will want to do is to do copy the "populist" idiocy of Americans in their last election. trump softly endorsing La Pen and seeing her movement as allied with his is not going to help her. This might have been a different story for France if their election happened before the U.S. one. 

Happy (hopefully not prematurely) that France is moving in the direction of SANITY. 

Edited April 24, 2017 by Jingthing

[Andaman Al]

3 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

No, no, no, no. Non.

She is not going to come within a bull's roar of the Presidency. More likely the widest margin loss in history. She is going to be trounced. 

This system means that nothing is left "on the table" in first round voting: those who support Le Pen ( an impressive 22% to be fair) have had their say. The remaining 78% effectively voted against her and will rally around Macron in Round 2.

The final margin in her defeat will be overwhelming.

I get it, BUT at worst, she has come second already and 50% of the voters did not vote for her but also did not vote for Marcon. Second place for a Fascist senior politician. That is very troubling. 

[Prbkk]

3 minutes ago, Andaman Al said:

I get it, BUT at worst, she has come second already and 50% of the voters did not vote for her but also did not vote for Marcon. Second place for a Fascist senior politician. That is very troubling. 

Yes, true. There must be a lot of hand-wringing and soul-searching going on in Paris in the headquarters of the 2 traditional powerhouse parties. 6 % for the socialists....has a ring of Labour under Corbyn about it.

[ilostmypassword]

 

13 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

No, no, no, no. Non.

She is not going to come within a bull's roar of the Presidency. More likely the widest margin loss in history. She is going to be trounced. 

This system means that nothing is left "on the table" in first round voting: those who support Le Pen ( an impressive 22% to be fair) have had their say. The remaining 78% effectively voted against her and will rally around Macron in Round 2.

The final margin in her defeat will be overwhelming.

Actually, polls currently show that in a macron le pen contest he would get about 64 percent and she would get about 36 percent. I believe that you're applying your estimates based on how American voters would split in such a case. The French think differently.

[Baerboxer]

7 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I don't see how the fascist La Pen can win this, short of some kind of very major Macron scandal. The last thing French people will want to do is to do copy the "populist" idiocy of Americans in their last election. trump softly endorsing La Pen and seeing her movement as allied with his is not going to help her. This might have been a different story for France if their election happened before the U.S. one. 

Happy (hopefully not prematurely) that France is moving in the direction of SANITY. 

 

Le Pen and her supporters aren't insane just because they have a different political view to you. The idea of declaring political opponents insane is a phenomenon of the extreme left.

 

The 22% who voted for her are likely to do so again. The 24% who voted for Macron, who portrays himself a "centerist" but really means center-left, will likely pick up a portion of voters who voted for other candidates but want to keep Le Pen out. A portion will likely abstain in the second round too. That's a French political science professor's prediction, on the BBC, not mine.

 

The only chance Le Pen has is if many who didn't vote in the first round do in the second, and support her; a portion of those who voted for Fillon swap to her and many who voted for left candidates abstain rather than vote for Macron. Very slim chance.

 

However, the professor also made a strong point that Macron, if elected, must be successful and deliver what the French people want. Otherwise he predicted Le Pen would win that one.

 

[Baerboxer]

5 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

 

Actually, polls currently show that in a macron le pen contest he would get about 64 percent and she would get about 36 percent. I believe that you're applying your estimates based on how American voters would split in such a case. The French think differently.

 

French experts were discussing this on TV last night. Some suggesting Le Pen could get as high as 40%. 

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I don't see how the fascist La Pen can win this, short of some kind of very major Macron scandal.

Major scandal in France? What could that be?

 

Month long celibacy? Saying no to wine? Eating English breakfast? :)

 

 

[dunroaming]

17 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I don't see how the fascist La Pen can win this, short of some kind of very major Macron scandal. The last thing French people will want to do is to do copy the "populist" idiocy of Americans in their last election. trump softly endorsing La Pen and seeing her movement as allied with his is not going to help her. This might have been a different story for France if their election happened before the U.S. one. 

Happy (hopefully not prematurely) that France is moving in the direction of SANITY. 

Yes hopefully France will have learnt from Americas enormous mistake of voting for Trump and Macron will walk it.

[Prbkk]

1 minute ago, Baerboxer said:

 

French experts were discussing this on TV last night. Some suggesting Le Pen could get as high as 40%. 

40 % is IMPOSSIBLE and no credible observer has suggested anything like that. 30% is her upper limit and that would make it the biggest defeat in history. 

Of course she has done some good in the campaign by forcing the others to pay greater attention to some of the lunacy emanating from Brussels ( but in most respects she is rejected by voters).

[joecoolfrog]

8 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Le Pen and her supporters aren't insane just because they have a different political view to you. The idea of declaring political opponents insane is a phenomenon of the extreme left.

 

The 22% who voted for her are likely to do so again. The 24% who voted for Macron, who portrays himself a "centerist" but really means center-left, will likely pick up a portion of voters who voted for other candidates but want to keep Le Pen out. A portion will likely abstain in the second round too. That's a French political science professor's prediction, on the BBC, not mine.

 

The only chance Le Pen has is if many who didn't vote in the first round do in the second, and support her; a portion of those who voted for Fillon swap to her and many who voted for left candidates abstain rather than vote for Macron. Very slim chance.

 

However, the professor also made a strong point that Macron, if elected, must be successful and deliver what the French people want. Otherwise he predicted Le Pen would win that one.

 

If they haven't learned the lessons of the 1930's , that popularist fascism turns nasty real fast , then yes I think insane is a fair judgement.

[Grouse]

Macron looks ideal to me

 

provincial education, pro EU, banking background and a real polymath.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/emmanuel_macron

 

To me, he's a liberal democrat. Son of Tony Blair? He's no socialist.

 

Apparantly pro Obama and uses social media as a tool to gauge policies.

 

Now let Germany fall into line for a hat trick!

[Prbkk]

15 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

 

Actually, polls currently show that in a macron le pen contest he would get about 64 percent and she would get about 36 percent. I believe that you're applying your estimates based on how American voters would split in such a case. The French think differently.

The French are united in opposition to Marine, even more than they were against her father. She has done well in galvanising her supporters but the reality is that traditional enemies in French politics are united in opposition to her. She will not get more than 30% of votes cast.

[dunroaming]

Le Pen has achieved a great deal and has never before garnered so much support. However this support comes from the ill-educated and to a great extent frightened French citizens who only hear one thing.  That is deport and ban immigrants and after the recent events in France it is understandable that le Pen thrives on the fear.

[Baerboxer]

Just now, Prbkk said:

40 % is IMPOSSIBLE and no credible observer has suggested anything like that. 30% is her upper limit and that would make it the biggest defeat in history. 

Of course she has done some good in the campaign by forcing the others to pay greater attention to some of the lunacy emanating from Brussels ( but in most respects she is rejected by voters).

 

Really - well guess the respected French University political professor, quiet an elderly gentleman whose observed many French elections, and made that comment,  and the European expert who agreed with him on the BBC French election program last night just aren't as credible as you then.

 

She isn't rejected by the 22% or whatever the final figure is that voted for her in the first round. The question is will more do so in the second? 

 

The experts suggested a number of possibilities with various pools of voters switching to new candidates or abstaining. The professor said she would likely end up better than her dad did, but that 40% was the most she could achieve.

 

Did you watch it? Perhaps you thought none of their scenarios were credible? Maybe not them either, or the BBC?

 

Please remind us again, where did you get your degree in French political science? How many years have you lived in France?

 

 

[Baerboxer]

1 minute ago, dunroaming said:

Le Pen has achieved a great deal and has never before garnered so much support. However this support comes from the ill-educated and to a great extent frightened French citizens who only hear one thing.  That is deport and ban immigrants and after the recent events in France it is understandable that le Pen thrives on the fear.

 

That's right any whose views don't agree with your's must be ill educated, ill informed, scared by rumor mongering and / or insane right?

 

After all, intelligent, well informed, balanced people would always make the same choice as you?

 

Le Pen and similar in other countries thrive because the left have repeatedly failed to deliver (except for themselves), the right have repeatedly failed to deliver (except for themselves, their business and banker friends) and people are getting so pissed off they want a change. There's no credible alternative so they're drawn to a not so credible one, even though that path leads to some very great dangers.

[dick dasterdly]

1 minute ago, joecoolfrog said:

If they haven't learned the lessons of the 1930's , that popularist fascism turns nasty real fast , then yes I think insane is a fair judgement.

Good point.

 

On the other hand, current policies are slowly increasing the rich/poor divide - which is why (I think) so many are turning to candidates for whom they'd have previously shunned entirely.

 

Meanwhile, the EU continues, seemingly oblivious to the mounting discontent.

[Baerboxer]

11 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

If they haven't learned the lessons of the 1930's , that popularist fascism turns nasty real fast , then yes I think insane is a fair judgement.

 

Would you also agree that people should learn the lessons that the extreme left is just as nasty? And those that don't be declared insane?

[Grouse]

This is a reasonable potted history of the last time fascism was in the accendent in France 77 years ago. Be warned!

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vichy_France

 

Of course, people forget the history! Some of the Marine supporters should consider the excesses of Vichy France and watch Secret Army instead of 'allo 'allo.

 

FN views on EU and Euro are one thing; fascism however is unthinkable.

[Baerboxer]

11 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Macron looks ideal to me

 

provincial education, pro EU, banking background and a real polymath.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/emmanuel_macron

 

To me, he's a liberal democrat. Son of Tony Blair? He's no socialist.

 

Apparantly pro Obama and uses social media as a tool to gauge policies.

 

Now let Germany fall into line for a hat trick!

 

Son of Blair and a banker - gawd help the average French citizen then.

[dick dasterdly]

21 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Le Pen and her supporters aren't insane just because they have a different political view to you. The idea of declaring political opponents insane is a phenomenon of the extreme left.

 

The 22% who voted for her are likely to do so again. The 24% who voted for Macron, who portrays himself a "centerist" but really means center-left, will likely pick up a portion of voters who voted for other candidates but want to keep Le Pen out. A portion will likely abstain in the second round too. That's a French political science professor's prediction, on the BBC, not mine.

 

The only chance Le Pen has is if many who didn't vote in the first round do in the second, and support her; a portion of those who voted for Fillon swap to her and many who voted for left candidates abstain rather than vote for Macron. Very slim chance.

 

However, the professor also made a strong point that Macron, if elected, must be successful and deliver what the French people want. Otherwise he predicted Le Pen would win that one.

 

If there's one thing we should have learned from this mess - its that left/right/communist 'tags don't apply anymore - and haven't applied for a long time.

 

And yet so many still insist on putting labels on people with a different point of view....

[dick dasterdly]

12 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Le Pen has achieved a great deal and has never before garnered so much support. However this support comes from the ill-educated and to a great extent frightened French citizens who only hear one thing.  That is deport and ban immigrants and after the recent events in France it is understandable that le Pen thrives on the fear.

More likely, citizens who have seen their salaries remain static/reduce as a result of immigration from poor countries.

 

Not to mention the terrorist attacks/increased violence they're reading about - committed by 'refugees'.

[Baerboxer]

11 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

The French are united in opposition to Marine, even more than they were against her father. She has done well in galvanising her supporters but the reality is that traditional enemies in French politics are united in opposition to her. She will not get more than 30% of votes cast.

 

Wrong again. French who support Le Pen, about 22% of them are not "united in opposition to her". That's a big chunk and she is popular among young people.

 

Many who voted for the also ran candidates may well switch to Macron to keep her out. Some may decide to abstain rather than vote for either and some, possibly, might switch to her. 

 

Many people never thought Britain would vote for Brexit, or the US would elect Trump, But they did. 

 

Unlikely the French will go the same way because that's not in their character and past actions suggest otherwise. It was said people vote with their hearts in the first round and their heads in the second.  So we will see soon enough.

 

However, the point was made, that should Macron win and fail to deliver, the FN would be a very major threat next time. Not the socialists.

[dunroaming]

11 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

That's right any whose views don't agree with your's must be ill educated, ill informed, scared by rumor mongering and / or insane right?

 

After all, intelligent, well informed, balanced people would always make the same choice as you?

Spot on, I am glad that I made myself clear