EU leaders unite on Brexit demands, for now

[rooster59]

EU leaders unite on Brexit demands, for now

By Alastair Macdonald

 

FILE PHOTO: EU and Union flags fly above Parliament Square in London, Britain March 25, 2017. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls/File Photo

 

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union leaders will endorse a stiff set of divorce terms for Britain at a summit on Saturday, rejoicing in a rare show of unity in adversity, but well aware that may start to fray once negotiations begin.

 

Meeting for the first time since British Prime Minister Theresa May formally triggered a two-year countdown to Brexit in late March, the 27 other EU leaders will lose little time over a lunch in Brussels in approving an 8-page set of negotiating guidelines hammered out by their diplomats over the past month.

 

Those will bind Michel Barnier, their chief negotiator, to seek a deal that secures the rights of 3 million EU expats living in Britain, ensure London pays tens of billions of euros Brussels thinks it will be owed and avoids destabilising peace by creating a hard EU-UK border across the island of Ireland.

They also rule out discussing the free trade deal May wants until they see progress on agreeing those key withdrawal terms.

 

In a mark of how last year's Brexit vote has called into question the unity of the United Kingdom itself, leaders will also offer Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny a pledge that if Northern Ireland, which voted against Brexit, ever unites with his country, it will automatically be in the EU.

 

The leaders may spend more time in discussions, including with Barnier, on what criteria they may use to judge, come the autumn, whether he has made sufficient progress to warrant a start on trade talks. They may also talk about how to manage a transition, after Britain leaves in 2019, to a new relationship likely to take many more years to finalise.

 

That decision on what is "sufficient" is the kind of debate that can poison relations as the 27 seek to protect national interests. Also contentious will be which countries scoop the prizes of hosting two EU agencies set to be moved from London.

 

With most of the 27 offering to house the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and several wanting the European Banking Authority (EBA), summit chair Donald Tusk and EU chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker will propose they agree in June on criteria for making the choices to avoid a repeat of previous bunfights.

 

"We are remarkably united," one national leader who will be at the table told Reuters this week. "But then it's always easy to be united on what you want before you start negotiating."

 

DIFFERENCES

 

Among possible differences, the priorities of poor, eastern states are to secure residency rights for their many workers in Britain and British money for the EU budget; Germany and others set store by a smooth transition to a new free trade agreement.

 

Unwonted unity has been forged by the shock of Brexit; it breaks a taboo and raises fears of further break-up at the hands of nationalists like French far-right leader Marine Le Pen. She will contest her country's presidential election run-off on May 7, though few expect her to beat centrist Emmanuel Macron.

 

The EU sees it as vital that Britain not be seen to profit from Brexit to avoid encouraging other states to follow suit.

 

However, some officials are also voicing concern that the process of weaving maximalist demands into the negotiating text could risk souring the atmosphere with May, who expects to start talks shortly after the UK election she has called for June 8.

 

Senior officials in Brussels believe the risk of a breakdown in talks that could see Britain simply walking out into chaotic legal limbo in March 2019 has diminished since May wrote to Tusk on March 29 in terms recognising she would have to compromise.

 

But German Chancellor Angela Merkel, facing her own election in September, warned Britain this week against lingering "illusions" of how much access it would retain to EU markets.

 

And some diplomats fear the tone of EU negotiating demands could sound too aggressive and create a popular backlash in Britain that might then make it hard for May to agree a deal.

 

"These are legally solid arguments," one said, noting for example a demand Britain not only lose the EMA and EBA but also pay the moving costs. "But we don't want to sound too punitive."

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-04-29

[ukrules]

They have zero chance of making a deal like this.

[animalmagic]

Not sure if done on purpose, but the Union Jack has been displayed flying upside down.  This is an internationally recognised distress signal and seems very appropriate when the EU flag is flown above it.

[steve187]

i think the most distressing thing about this thread is that the EU flag in the photo is on top of the union 'jack' which, unless its a reverse image or something, is incorrectly displayed, maybe hoisted up by a EU national.

[Moonlover]

25 minutes ago, steve187 said:

i think the most distressing thing about this thread is that the EU flag in the photo is on top of the union 'jack' which, unless its a reverse image or something, is incorrectly displayed, maybe hoisted up by a EU national.

This photo was taken on the 25th March. So it was most certainly carried during the very large 'remain' rally that was held. that day. So I guess it would be unfair to 'blame a foreigner' in this case. It is a common mistake though. We don't get the 'loyally to the flag' thing in our education anymore. (Maybe we never did!)

 

Not mentioned in this article, but what I think is a very important issue, will be the Ireland/N. I. border. An open border was one of the key elements in the Good Friday agreements back in 1998 and could, most certainly will become a very thorny issue once again.

Edited April 29, 2017 by Moonlover

[i claudius]

once negotiations start ,they will all start fighting amongst themselves , trying to get the best deal for their country ,just like the always do .

[sujoop]

 

 (irreverent humour courtesy of the endlessly rational thoughts @ https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood )

 

[Mousehound]

Ah well.  Anyone for a cuppa and a biscuit?

[ujayujay]

Dream on, little dreamer, dream on..

[Thongkorn]

19 begging Country's are going to vote against a rich one. Because they know the gravey train has just hit the buffers. 

[dick dasterdly]

One of the few, too rare articles that genuinely points out both sides of the 'argument'.

 

I particularly liked  the following:-

 

"However, some officials are also voicing concern that the process of weaving maximalist demands into the negotiating text could risk souring the atmosphere with May, who expects to start talks shortly after the UK election"

 

"some diplomats fear the tone of EU negotiating demands could sound too aggressive and create a popular backlash in Britain that might then make it hard for May to agree a deal"

 

"European Union leaders will endorse a stiff set of divorce terms for Britain at a summit on Saturday, rejoicing in a rare show of unity in adversity, but well aware that may start to fray once negotiations begin"

 

 

Edited April 29, 2017 by dick dasterdly

[gamini]

4 hours ago, Moonlover said:

This photo was taken on the 25th March. So it was most certainly carried during the very large 'remain' rally that was held. that day. So I guess it would be unfair to 'blame a foreigner' in this case. It is a common mistake though. We don't get the 'loyally to the flag' thing in our education anymore. (Maybe we never did!)

 

Not mentioned in this article, but what I think is a very important issue, will be the Ireland/N. I. border. An open border was one of the key elements in the Good Friday agreements back in 1998 and could, most certainly will become a very thorny issue once again.

I don't think there's any doubt that Northern Ireland will eventually Unite with the South.   The younger generation are far less interested in religion. So this contentious issue will fade away. Unfortunately a border between the two countries is essential, once Britain leaves the EU. It will not be popular with the North, so that also will induce them to join the South.

[robertson468]

5 hours ago, animalmagic said:

Not sure if done on purpose, but the Union Jack has been displayed flying upside down.  This is an internationally recognised distress signal and seems very appropriate when the EU flag is flown above it.

What you see is a "Union Flag" upside down, not as you say "Union Jack", which is only described as the latter when flown off one of HM Ships.  A common mistake.

[Moonlover]

21 minutes ago, robertson468 said:

What you see is a "Union Flag" upside down, not as you say "Union Jack", which is only described as the latter when flown off one of HM Ships.  A common mistake.

What I read here is the most common misconception that I know of, regarding Britain's national flag. And indeed I was myself, at one time, a believer of this falsehood.

 

And then came the internet!

 

Perhaps you may like to read this article by one: Cdr Bruce Nicolls OBE RN (Retd). I doubt if the is any greater authority on our nation's flag than the 'Flag Institute', The UK’s National Flag Charity.

 

https://www.flaginstitute.org/wp/british-flags/the-union-jack-or-the-union-flag/

[sanukjim]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

One of the few, too rare articles that genuinely points out both sides of the 'argument'.

 

I particularly liked  the following:-

 

"However, some officials are also voicing concern that the process of weaving maximalist demands into the negotiating text could risk souring the atmosphere with May, who expects to start talks shortly after the UK election"

 

"some diplomats fear the tone of EU negotiating demands could sound too aggressive and create a popular backlash in Britain that might then make it hard for May to agree a deal"

 

"European Union leaders will endorse a stiff set of divorce terms for Britain at a summit on Saturday, rejoicing in a rare show of unity in adversity, but well aware that may start to fray once negotiations begin"

 

 

dick dasterdly,you seem like one of the few that reads and understands enough in order to give a  viable opinion,unlike others that spout only of their's dislikes.

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, sanukjim said:

dick dasterdly,you seem like one of the few that reads and understands enough in order to give a  viable opinion,unlike others that spout only of their's dislikes.

If only.....

 

I just recognise BS very quickly and agree with articles like this that point out the possible (likely?), reverse effect of the BS .

[terryw]

The article is wrong in so far as we are not divorcing the EU, we have simply democratically decided to leave.

 

If the UK government agrees a substantial alimony then UK taxpayers will argue that the money would be better spent on the NHS.

 

The UK government can simply refuse to pay. It can then focus on the next 23 months preparing our Customs procedures and systems to ensure that WHO rules can apply to EU trade.

 

This would mean that EU farm products would be subject to tarrifs as high as 56%. The EU would be back at the negociating table within a week when French farmers, Spanish fishermen and German carmakers begin protesting.

 

Finally, 80% of Euro trades go through London. Nobody in the EU has sufficient skilled staff to take away this business. And there are plenty of countries who will want to trade with us once we no longer have to impose high EU tarrifs.

[dunroaming]

The May Administration has already shown a willingness to give ground on finance, trade and immigration and we haven't even started the negotiations yet!  Still at least the ground rules are being agreed and put into law so that will be something positive.

[Baerboxer]

7 minutes ago, terryw said:

The article is wrong in so far as we are not divorcing the EU, we have simply democratically decided to leave.

 

If the UK government agrees a substantial alimony then UK taxpayers will argue that the money would be better spent on the NHS.

 

The UK government can simply refuse to pay. It can then focus on the next 23 months preparing our Customs procedures and systems to ensure that WHO rules can apply to EU trade.

 

This would mean that EU farm products would be subject to tarrifs as high as 56%. The EU would be back at the negociating table within a week when French farmers, Spanish fishermen and German carmakers begin protesting.

 

Finally, 80% of Euro trades go through London. Nobody in the EU has sufficient skilled staff to take away this business. And there are plenty of countries who will want to trade with us once we no longer have to impose high EU tarrifs.

 

Of course we are seeing posturing at the moment. Merkel and Hollande / Macron want to show their voters how tough they are before respective elections. Other leaders are glad of the rare chance to get some publicity. Be honest - how often does Malta's PM get interviewed by anyone outside Malta.

 

All about banging the table at the moment - we will remove certain agencies but you must pay the cost. Well the answer to that is **** off. 

 

Now, UK, when are you going to do some agitating on behalf of NATO with those EU NATO countries who owe large sums of defense spending and are trying to avoid their commitment?

[Baerboxer]

4 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

The May Administration has already shown a willingness to give ground on finance, trade and immigration and we haven't even started the negotiations yet!  Still at least the ground rules are being agreed and put into law so that will be something positive.

 

Despite what the gutter press in the UK say, and clowns like Sturgeon, May isn't a Thatcher, isn't a hard nosed negotiator and was in fact a Remainer.

 

But she knows that the more the EU seem to act like a bully the more the British people will resist and demand we push back.

 

Germany tried the ultimate bullying twice before, both times when they thought they were the dominant power in Europe and Britain was weak. Once again - funny how history repeats.

 

Putin and his allies would love to see the EU break up and Europe in disarray. And people forget Merkel's background and who she loyally served for many years.

[dick dasterdly]

At the end of the day, I think we can all agree that the EU has come up with their 'dream list', whilst also knowing that its just a 'dream list'.

[dick dasterdly]

24 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Of course we are seeing posturing at the moment. Merkel and Hollande / Macron want to show their voters how tough they are before respective elections. Other leaders are glad of the rare chance to get some publicity. Be honest - how often does Malta's PM get interviewed by anyone outside Malta.

 

All about banging the table at the moment - we will remove certain agencies but you must pay the cost. Well the answer to that is **** off. 

 

Now, UK, when are you going to do some agitating on behalf of NATO with those EU NATO countries who owe large sums of defense spending and are trying to avoid their commitment?

Let's not get distracted from the EU coming up with its list of how negotiations will proceed - and why that should not be entertained for one second.

 

But I agree that it is pure posturing by the EU.

 

The OP article points out the 'worrying' side to their posturing .

[dunroaming]

It's going to go back and forth for two years and at the moment we are all looking for clues as to which way it will swing.  One thing that has been agreed is that no deals can be signed off until after we leave so until then....

[dick dasterdly]

12 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

It's going to go back and forth for two years and at the moment we are all looking for clues as to which way it will swing.  One thing that has been agreed is that no deals can be signed off until after we leave so until then....

Unless the EU continues with its ridiculous posturing, and forces the UK into leaving immediately with no deal - and of course, no payment to the EU.

 

Unlikely I admit as UK politicians are also only looking out for their own (personal) interests.  But its always a possibility if the EU doesn't back down from its 'negotiations list' - as per the OP.

 

Does anyone think UK voters are stupid enough not to realise that the  'divorce settlement' and future trading agreements are intertwined?

 

Having said  this, perhaps politicians on both sides are stupid enough to think that the electorate will fall for this tactic .

Edited April 29, 2017 by dick dasterdly

[dick dasterdly]

And before anyone says there would be endless ramifications for leaving the EU without any deal, there are already endless ramifications for both the UK and EU when the UK leaves.

[dunroaming]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

And before anyone says there would be endless ramifications for leaving the EU without any deal, there are already endless ramifications for both the UK and EU when the UK leaves.

That is true and it's actually all about damage limitation. 

[ilostmypassword]

4 hours ago, terryw said:

The article is wrong in so far as we are not divorcing the EU, we have simply democratically decided to leave.

 

I

"Honey, I'm not divorcing you.I'm simply leaving and dissolving the legal bonds that bind us. Really, what what's going on here isn't divorce but rather 'conscious uncoupling'   Love, Gwyneth.".

[mommysboy]

I don't think there are any concessions the EU can reasonably make.  It is obvious UK can't leave the EU and still retain membership rights.

 

And as soon as soon as the UK softens its stance, it makes a mockery of Brexit.

 

Therefore, negotiations are really quite pointless.  If UK is to leave, then it has to leave on WHO trading terms.

 

The only thing that can be done is to ensure a smooth transition because there are going to be some major ramifications for the UK, but not just for the UK.  The whole of the EU would be severely effected if UK, the EU's banker, decides to make things difficult and why would it not?  This is the one area where EU has a soft underbelly.

 

The EU has made a terrible start by the stance it is taking, which is obstructive, and can only result in the UK simply dropping out.

 

I wouldn't rule out cancellation, due to public demand.  Increasingly, Brexit is being dubbed by Brits as a 'bad idea'.

[mommysboy]

26 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

"Honey, I'm not divorcing you.I'm simply leaving and dissolving the legal bonds that bind us. Really, what what's going on here isn't divorce but rather 'conscious uncoupling'   Love, Gwyneth.".

The 'marriage' analogy is a very poor one.  We're leaving a financial club with 27 members.

[ilostmypassword]

4 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Of course we are seeing posturing at the moment. Merkel and Hollande / Macron want to show their voters how tough they are before respective elections. Other leaders are glad of the rare chance to get some publicity. Be honest - how often does Malta's PM get interviewed by anyone outside Malta.

 

All about banging the table at the moment - we will remove certain agencies but you must pay the cost. Well the answer to that is **** off. 

 

Now, UK, when are you going to do some agitating on behalf of NATO with those EU NATO countries who owe large sums of defense spending and are trying to avoid their commitment?

Nato, really? None of them owe anything. They are supposed to bring up their share of military spending to 2 percent of  of GDP but they don't owe it to anybody. Germany agreed to do it by 2024 and has been increasing its military expenditures.