Govt plans press briefing to mark 3 years in power

[yellowboat]

52 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You have no idea on this point, absolutely none, regardless of what the VOA may or may not say. As many many longer term TVF members will attest, vote buying at the grass roots levels is endemic. VOA indeed, my goodness me, that's even worse than using wiki as proof of something!

Sorry, but without proof, hear say is just nothing.  Yingluck election was deemed clean by election officials at the time.  If the junta could prove that she bought votes, don't you think they would be delighted to try her and throw her in jail ?

Heard the allegations for years, but never saw the proof or the scope of the alleged vote buying.   It does not matter now anyway.  Thailand's future will be full of short cuts, omissions, denials, evasiveness, half truths and autocracy.  You guys win.

Edited May 14, 2017 by yellowboat

[gk10002000]

7 hours ago, halloween said:

"When there is no oversight, or accountability, corruption and injustice increases, and worse the intensity of such things do. " 

Agreed, we saw that quite clearly with the Yingluk government. Laws were not enforced, etc, etc. Before predicting these things might happen with a military government, face up to the fact they WERE happening in the last democratic government.  Remember the attempt to borrow THB2.2 trillion, to be used off-budget to prop up their excesses?

I never said they don't happen in other structures.  But there was nothing preventing things from being done properly.  The leaders were not enforcing lawlessness and autocracy. Sure they may influence or try to strongarm.  If people don't follow the legal process and if the legal process is not enforced by the civilian peoples, then vote them out and clean up.  Putting in a military doesn't solve a darn thing and it only makes things worse and never gets to the roots of the problem

Edited May 14, 2017 by gk10002000
update

[JAG]

Thaksin was corrupt that was well known, both he and his wife were found guilty by the courts - Yingluk was his proxy and that was also well known, she was subsequently found guilty of mismanagement......why wait for elections under those circumstances.
 
Just before we get too far down a road that wasn't intended nor needs to be travelled: my position at the outset is that democracy is not right for all populations of all countries, that is especially true of developing countries with emerging economies, no more, no less. And before somebody like Eric starts to take me to task on the reasons for the early coups, if the governments of their day were actually doing their jobs responsibly without elements of them seeking always to feather their own nests, the army wouldn't need to get involved, IN SOME CASES.

Well I suppose you have ( a first) given some sort of answer, by stating that you dont believe that democracy is appropriate for developing countries.

Actually no, on second thoughts it is not an answer, rather more an excuse you offer in justification for coups preventing an election. So I ask again, why were the elections forstalled by a coup?

By the way, it is a road that needs to be traveled. It is central to your original statement.

[simoh1490]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/01/02/opinion/thailand-and-the-coup-trap.html

 

Junta solely to be blamed for the depressing economy. Of course you will deny that this is fake news. 

Eric: your link is to an article that is titled, "opinion", not fact, opinion. It is also dated 2015!!! I know from your other posts that you like to post against the junta and everything they do which is your prerogative. But please, next time, do it with supportive evidence that is a little more convincing and supportive of your Thai bashing.

[simoh1490]

4 hours ago, wakeupplease said:

World Bank again an old chestnut

 

It is third world and always will be if it goes on like this, I for one are fed up with my taxes here being given to 3rd world country's so their leaders can be even more corrupt The UK is one of the biggest givers.

 

Just because the World Bank wants to use what they think is Politically Correct words, the rest of us do not have to follow.

 

Its a scam and look very closely and your see most of the country's in this neck of the woods are the biggest ones at it.

 

Not sure but think T does not get our money except from expats who get ripped off by visa's and visa runs and loosing there shirts when the wife goes.

 

No? my wife is here with me and says the same so maybe I am lucky

Stop! The term "third world" is redundant, it's a cold war term used to identify whether a country was aligned with the USA, Russia or neither, third world being neither.

 

I've already explained to you what terms the World Bank, UN WHO etc etc use to describe Thailand so please, enough of the blah blah blah!

[candide]

43 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Eric: your link is to an article that is titled, "opinion", not fact, opinion. It is also dated 2015!!! I know from your other posts that you like to post against the junta and everything they do which is your prerogative. But please, next time, do it with supportive evidence that is a little more convincing and supportive of your Thai bashing.

There are several papers in the Economist.

http://www.economist.com/topics/thailand-1

You are prompt at asking other posters to provide sources and at bashing the sources they provide, but you never provide any!

Please feel welcome to provide reliable sources for your arguments! I am sure plenty of TVF members would like to read them!

 

Edited May 14, 2017 by candide

[simoh1490]

14 minutes ago, candide said:

There are several papers in the Economist.

http://www.economist.com/topics/thailand-1

You are prompt at asking other posters to provide sources and at bashing the sources they provide, but you never provide any!

Please feel welcome to provide reliable sources for your arguments! I am sure plenty of TVF members would like to read them!

 

Provide sources for my arguments about what, my belief that democracy is not right for all populations and countries, you're the ones trying to tell me I'm wrong? It's you guys who are intent it seems on trying to tell everyone that military dictatorships are bad for everything from the economy to growth and personal development and there isn't much evdience to substantiate those claims, you're the ones who need to supply supportive links to prove that's the case.

 

BTW your piece from the economist gives an overview of lots of things, it's a hundred miles high, what is the  message you're trying to give, that growth has been slower in Thailand under the junta than many other ASEAN countries? Already covered that point.

Edited May 14, 2017 by simoh1490

[baboon]

7 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Provide sources for my arguments about what, my belief that democracy is not right for all populations and countries, you're the ones trying to tell me I'm wrong? 

Now hold on a minute. You make an assertion that democracy is not right for all populations and countries. Now others are asking you to back it up in the case of Thailand, which you have not done. Instead, you require them to disprove it which is a nonsense. 

Should a person arrested for theft, say, be required to prove his or her innocence when the police can provide no actual evidence? 'Well, your honour, you can't deny he certainly looks the type...'

 

Actually given the nature of some posters on here, I am rather afraid to ask that question...

 

[candide]

55 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Provide sources for my arguments about what, my belief that democracy is not right for all populations and countries, you're the ones trying to tell me I'm wrong? It's you guys who are intent it seems on trying to tell everyone that military dictatorships are bad for everything from the economy to growth and personal development and there isn't much evdience to substantiate those claims, you're the ones who need to supply supportive links to prove that's the case.

 

BTW your piece from the economist gives an overview of lots of things, it's a hundred miles high, what is the  message you're trying to give, that growth has been slower in Thailand under the junta than many other ASEAN countries? Already covered that point.

Come on! Show us any reliable and recognised source praising the achievements of the Junta (by reliable, I mean not like Pornpimol in the Nation).!

Edited May 14, 2017 by candide

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, candide said:

Come on! Show us any reliable and recognised source praising the achievements of the Junta (by reliable, I mean not like Pornpimol in the Nation).!

Don't be silly, go back and rad the thread again and this time, understand what was written.

[simoh1490]

3 hours ago, baboon said:

Now hold on a minute. You make an assertion that democracy is not right for all populations and countries. Now others are asking you to back it up in the case of Thailand, which you have not done. Instead, you require them to disprove it which is a nonsense. 

Should a person arrested for theft, say, be required to prove his or her innocence when the police can provide no actual evidence? 'Well, your honour, you can't deny he certainly looks the type...'

 

Actually given the nature of some posters on here, I am rather afraid to ask that question...

 

 

Please review the History of Democracy, especially the Transition to an Empire, taking note of the occasions when military generals overthrew the elected governments - please also note how a "rex" or king was made, often as a reward by the troops to a favourite general. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_democracy

None of that reflects the modern system of democracy that posters here are getting excited about, you know, campaigning, political parties, ballot boxes and manifesto's!

 

Whether it is Thailand or the Roman Empire, development towards a modern western style democracy is not instant amongst emerging and developing countries, it's a passage that takes time. The UK is considered to be the epitome of a democracy yet voter turnout in recent years has fallen to such low levels as to suggest that the country has worn out the concept and is ready to go full circle  - that suggests that democracy is not necessarily permanent and once earned it can also be lost. As said earlier, China governs without democracy and doesn't think for one moment it would even work there, that's Thailand's near neighbour by the way. Vietnam, a single party state, The Party decides who the candidates will be: http://time.com/4344416/vietnam-elections-independent-communist/.

 

Ditto Laos and until very very recently ditto Myanmar. So here we have this huge block of four or five countries in the region that are NOT governed by western style democracy yet somehow posters here think that Thailand, a country of 19 coups, is overdue.....I mean really!

 

[JAG]

I mean really - has it not occurred that after 19 coups perhaps Thailand is overdue?

 

Myanmar is emerging from umpteen years of a military kleptocracy, which has impoverished and repressed it's people. Here the military are trying to put just such a system in place, with the de facto support of those westerners, who in their home countries enjoy political freedom and democracy yet here think it is inappropriate. Hypocrisy on an epic, Himalaya scale!

Laos, Vietnam and China are indeed one party states. First, that doesn't justify the same thing here, and secondthose parties do at least base their existence ( and to some extent do) serve all the people's of their states.

 

 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, JAG said:

I mean really - has it not occurred that after 19 coups perhaps Thailand is overdue?

Myanmar is emerging from umpteen years of a military kleptocracy, which has impoverished and repressed it's people. Hear the military are trying to put just such a system in place.
Laos, Vietnam and China are indeed one party states. That doesn't justify the same thing here, and those parties do at least claim ( and to some extent do) serve all the people's of their states.

Maybe, maybe not. But the one party state and dear leader arguments in those countries, squashes the argument about poor economic growth in such places and the lack of opportunity in them - remind me how many billionaires,......., oh never mind.

 

BTW Myanmar is not only emerging, it is also classified as an emerging economy.

[cmsally]

The Neil Heywood case gives a useful insight into Chinese billionaires, most of whom are well connected to the Communist Party. This is another very well written article.

NY Times article

 

For anyone spending any time in China in the late eighties this article is indeed common sense and true to fact.

 

In some of the SE Asian countries there have been certain periods when the economy has survived in spite of the government. But there have been times when the government has tried to exert a stronger hold (normally times of coup and military rule). Don't forget that many of the economies have been kick started by fleeing Chinese who were escaping their own autocratic regime. They would in general have a distrust of govt and make dealings within their own clans/groups.

This is basically what created BKK to be what it is. Now we have the situation where the Chinese are much more assimilated and small businesses not the engine in the ship. We have an era which in a lot of ways looks like it could turn into something with similarities to an old Chinese model. History suggests this is not sustainable.

[simoh1490]

The evidence seems to be that the Thai economy is improving quite substantially, and with the exception of slow moving capital projects, the factors all appear to be external:

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/previewthai-q1-gdp-growth-seen-at-fastest-pace-in-4-years-as-exports-rebound-20170512-00048

[SABloke]

Sadly the "achievements" of the last three years will be reflected in non achievements in the next 20 years.   A truly representative government will not flourish.  Impartiality in law will never happen.    Thailand's future is uncertain. 

Thailand's future is not uncertain: it's certain to be crap, that's all

[cmsally]

I must say that I would need to see some very detailed reports and statistics before I believed the economy was improving. Everything on the ground suggests that is not the case. Where are all those exports concentrated for example.If you have exports driven by a few top companies I would doubt the benefits would filter down very far. This is the danger for Thailand, you have a government trying to balance out the cup cakes that are only eaten by the top tier of the population.

Thailand's economy

 

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of the exports. It's obvious that household spending can't dig us out unless its further into debt. Maybe a govt deficit but then I guess they need to borrow some money, so maybe they have chugged up exports, but the question is, how have they done it ?

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, cmsally said:

I must say that I would need to see some very detailed reports and statistics before I believed the economy was improving. Everything on the ground suggests that is not the case. Where are all those exports concentrated for example.If you have exports driven by a few top companies I would doubt the benefits would filter down very far. This is the danger for Thailand, you have a government trying to balance out the cup cakes that are only eaten by the top tier of the population.

Thailand's economy

 

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of the exports. It's obvious that household spending can't dig us out unless its further into debt. Maybe a govt deficit but then I guess they need to borrow some money, so maybe they have chugged up exports, but the question is, how have they done it ?

That's not a simple picture to paint but here's some data - BTW, your article is dated 2014 hence I'm not sure how relevant it is to events in 2017:

 

The high level view:

Exports up 9.2% last month. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

China replaces US as main export market: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-by-country

Tourist arrivals are up: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

Top 10 Exports 2016: http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

World Bank Trade stats: http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/THA

 

Difficult to get a detailed accurate view that is current, without spending more time on it than I want to spend, others should feel free to go for it however.

 

 

[cmsally]

To see a clearer picture you would need to look at how the larger companies affect the statistics. Cereal and seafood could easily dominated by CP. Electronics and motor by the Japanese companies. All very well if you get good statistics driven up by the very top sectors, most of this does not filter down.

[cmsally]

31 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

That's not a simple picture to paint but here's some data - BTW, your article is dated 2014 hence I'm not sure how relevant it is to events in 2017:

 

The high level view:

Exports up 9.2% last month. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

China replaces US as main export market: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-by-country

Tourist arrivals are up: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

Top 10 Exports 2016: http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

World Bank Trade stats: http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/THA

 

Difficult to get a detailed accurate view that is current, without spending more time on it than I want to spend, others should feel free to go for it however.

 

 

The article seems to be quite relevant as it basically states there are 3 ways a "govt" can dig its way out after a military coup. Public spending, govt deficit/spending and export growth. I think they have tried on getting the public to spend more and just ended up with more household debt, the govt deficit (building and infrastructure) seemed to rely on Chinese loans, that seemed to get problematic and now we are on export growth. That either seems to have been easier or you can fudge the figures

[mtls2005]

Are the trains running on time?

 

(high speed, double-track or otherwise?)

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

That's not a simple picture to paint but here's some data - BTW, your article is dated 2014 hence I'm not sure how relevant it is to events in 2017:

 

The high level view:

Exports up 9.2% last month. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

China replaces US as main export market: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-by-country

Tourist arrivals are up: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

Top 10 Exports 2016: http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

World Bank Trade stats: http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/THA

 

Difficult to get a detailed accurate view that is current, without spending more time on it than I want to spend, others should feel free to go for it however.

 

 

Allow me to summarize my opinion of your links.

 

The 9.2% increase in export is measured from previous month of -2.8%. The export figure of USD20.87 B is the average export figure before the coup.

 

All ASEAN countries benefited from tourist influx from growing affluence in China, Indonesia and India.

 

The 2016 GDP is 1.161 T which falls much behind the 2013 GDP of 1.4 T.

 

All the information mentioned are in public domain if you wish to check. However the biggest fallout of the coup is the FDI which fell out of investors radar and will affect the economy long after the junta government hand over the office to an elected government. I fear that the depletion of the financial coffers will also handicap next elected government. The 7.3% increase in defence budget should be better spent and better monitored for grafts. 

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Allow me to summarize my opinion of your links.

 

The 9.2% increase in export is measured from previous month of -2.8%. The export figure of USD20.87 B is the average export figure before the coup.

 

All ASEAN countries benefited from tourist influx from growing affluence in China, Indonesia and India.

 

The 2016 GDP is 1.161 T which falls much behind the 2013 GDP of 1.4 T.

 

All the information mentioned are in public domain if you wish to check. However the biggest fallout of the coup is the FDI which fell out of investors radar and will affect the economy long after the junta government hand over the office to an elected government. I fear that the depletion of the financial coffers will also handicap next elected government. The 7.3% increase in defence budget should be better spent and better monitored for grafts. 

Allow me to add some neutrality to your opinion and remove the bias!

 

FDI would have fallen regardless of who was running the country hence that fall is not attributable to the junta, the fall resulted from the recovery of the US economy and the increase in base rate by the Fed. Reserve.

 

Also, the 7.3% increase in military spending brought the total to well under the 2% of GDP spent by all of Thailand's neighbours.

[Eric Loh]

17 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Allow me to add some neutrality to your opinion and remove the bias!

 

FDI would have fallen regardless of who was running the country hence that fall is not attributable to the junta, the fall resulted from the recovery of the US economy and the increase in base rate by the Fed. Reserve.

 

Also, the 7.3% increase in military spending brought the total to well under the 2% of GDP spent by all of Thailand's neighbours.

Keep off the junta kool-aid.

 

ASEAN keep attracting FDI but not junta Thailand. Even BOT admitted that FDI fell by 90% in value and the lowest in over a decade. He cited political instability as one of the reason. Good try on the US economy recovery and rate increase which has little to do with FDI which is still strong flowing into ASEAN.

 

You forgot to mention that all Thailand neighbours have higher GDP. Simply put, 2% spending on low GDP  is irresponsible and corrupt. 

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Keep off the junta kool-aid.

 

ASEAN keep attracting FDI but not junta Thailand. Even BOT admitted that FDI fell by 90% in value and the lowest in over a decade. He cited political instability as one of the reason. Good try on the US economy recovery and rate increase which has little to do with FDI which is still strong flowing into ASEAN.

 

You forgot to mention that all Thailand neighbours have higher GDP. Simply put, 2% spending on low GDP  is irresponsible and corrupt. 

Provide stats and links to confirm what you've just written about FDI flows, comparing those flows against Thailand, otherwise it aint so. Fact is it aint so!

 

What also definitely  "aint so" in your post is that every country in ASEAN has a higher GDP than Thailand, Thailand's GDP is number 2 in the region, not number 10 and that seems to negate your point about 2% military spending: http://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_ASEAN_countries_by_GDP

Edited May 15, 2017 by simoh1490

[candide]

37 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Provide stats and links to confirm what you've just written about FDI flows, comparing those flows against Thailand, otherwise it aint so. Fact is it aint so!

 

What also definitely  "aint so" in your post is that every country in ASEAN has a higher GDP than Thailand, Thailand's GDP is number 2 in the region, not number 10 and that seems to negate your point about 2% military spending: http://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_ASEAN_countries_by_GDP

Here are the figures for ASEAN countries:

http://asean.org/?static_post=foreign-direct-investment-statistics

Table-25_oct2016.pdf

[mtls2005]

If they are going to review all of their accomplishments then this may be the shortest press briefing in history.

[simoh1490]

15 minutes ago, candide said:

Here are the figures for ASEAN countries:

http://asean.org/?static_post=foreign-direct-investment-statistics

Table-25_oct2016.pdf

I only see 2015 as the latest year, do you have anything more current?

 

From what you've supplied it looks as though Thailand fell from 3rd place to 5th place within ASEAN in terms of FDI rankings. I don't immediately have an answer for that (but I know you do), maybe it was determined by the coup, it'll be interesting to see the 2016 and 2017 YTD numbers to see if things have improved even further. If your point was to prove that FDI fell as a result of the coup I can accept that may be the case if you can accept that it is now recovering.
 

Also, FDI flows, especially hot money was seen to be flowing in and out of Thailand in dramatic fashion both before and after the the Fed meetings this year, it is this that I referred to earlier.

Edited May 15, 2017 by simoh1490

[elgordo38]

On 5/14/2017 at 6:24 AM, darksidedog said:

Everyone knows what they have done over the last three years, so no one wants to hear them try and spin some rubbish that suggests otherwise.

I think the only thing that most people want to hear about is when will there be elections and when will the junta be gone.

I think we are being governed by Junta "heavy" at the present after the election it will be Junta "lite" with a dash of bitters. 

[Eric Loh]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Provide stats and links to confirm what you've just written about FDI flows, comparing those flows against Thailand, otherwise it aint so. Fact is it aint so!

 

What also definitely  "aint so" in your post is that every country in ASEAN has a higher GDP than Thailand, Thailand's GDP is number 2 in the region, not number 10 and that seems to negate your point about 2% military spending: http://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_ASEAN_countries_by_GDP

Seem we are talking different things.

 

I am talking bricks and mortars FDI while you talk about funds inflow for bonds and stock.

 

I talk about the lowest GDP growth and not GDP which by virtue of Thailand economy depth, size and population is rank 2 after Indonesia which is ASEAN largest populated country.

 

Our views will never meet if we see matters differently.