Machines coming to take millions of Thai jobs: report

[manarak]

4 hours ago, jcsmith said:

It's definitely a fun discussion. 

 

Bangkok is probably a ways off from like self-driving vehicles imo simply because of lower prices of taxis in compared to the west, and higher prices of the vehicles. But eventually that would become cost-effective. I think that's really the limiter on a lot of this stuff, being cost-effective. In America the last numbers I read had more than 1% of jobs being driving jobs (truckers, taxi drivers, couriers, bus drivers, etc). 

 

When it's cheaper to replace people with machines, companies will do it. But it will reach that point at different stages in different locations and fields.

 

I think we're a long way from real self-programming code. But I'm impressed with the ability of machine learning to master video games for example (my field), AlphaGo, etc. As an amateur poker player I'm also really interesting to know that limit holdem has already been mastered my machines, and to read some of the approaches that the software developed which are completely outside of the box in modern poker tactics, yet extremely effective. Many poker players make the bulk of their money online these days, but as bots become stronger, it's going to destroy that industry. Moving ahead to the future, when BCIs or optical implants become viable you would likewise have similar issues in live poker. As medical technology improves sports are going to deal with these issues, as well.

Change is jarring but inevitable. There's of course a lot of good things that can come out of this all, as well.

 

by the way, what will happen when many workers will have been put out of work by machines and can't be employed for anything because they are too stupid?

for that many advance the idea of universal income, but I see the problem that robots will earn the money for their owners and the money will just accumulate, becoming worthless, while prices of real tangible wealth, such as real estate, commodities, etc. will skyrocket.

I even think at some point there will be a disconnect between what is given to to the inactive part of population for doing nothing (food stamps, a free dwelling and a consumption allowance to spend on clothes, consumer electronics, video games and media subscriptions ?), while "hard currency" will be required to acquire anything of real value.

then people will become ready to do ANYTHING to get a shot at having a little bit of real currency, lol. socialist paradise !

 

before you say no, that won't happen, just think about how paid inactives change the economic system. if a new currency isn't introduced, people will just start exchanging gold or foreign currencies of countries that didn't opt for universal income.

it reminds me a bit of the late 80ies where people in eastern europe would do anything to get their hands on dollars. same situation, really.

[Johpa]

 
I know gpu for computers are getting hot items but it's mainly for gamecomputers or cadcam-developers.  

I can't answer any of your hardware questions. But you do prove one of my points in that even people who are far more involved than I in the tech world are unaware of the recent strides made in machine learning, or AI. GPUs are no longer primarily for gaming or cadcam but for building neural nets. Look at the stock price of Nvidia over the past few years. The rise in the stock price has little to do with graphics.

You are probably already using these neural nets on a daily basis: Facebook face recognition, Google voice search, or Amazon recommendations. Welcome to the newest brave new world.

[gk10002000]

well I remember quite well back in the late 1970s as robot manufacturing and microprocessor things were scaring the Detroit USA auto workers.  Machines would replace all the workers.  That didn't quite happen.  There were some big changes for sure.

[fruitman]

1 hour ago, Johpa said:

 

I can't answer any of your hardware questions. But you do prove one of my points in that even people who are far more involved than I in the tech world are unaware of the recent strides made in machine learning, or AI. GPUs are no longer primarily for gaming or cadcam but for building neural nets. Look at the stock price of Nvidia over the past few years. The rise in the stock price has little to do with graphics.

You are probably already using these neural nets on a daily basis: Facebook face recognition, Google voice search, or Amazon recommendations. Welcome to the newest brave new world.

 

 

Well i can't keep up to date with the latest technology but i'm pretty sure i know it all . Even cheap chromebooks or laptops have face recognition and those don't have a dedicated gpu-processor or anything fast. So for that i don't believe your story.

 

And for 3d camera's they also don't need a dedicated nvidia gpu but they might work better with one onboard, i haven't tested it myself yet.

For top-end notebooks nvidia is the supplier for gpu-s, there's not much else around.And since even students have top-end notebooks recommended by their schools it's a big market from which nvidia makes a lot of profit. Those gpu's are so small they fit in notebooks these days and yup who doesn't want to have one onboard?

 

So i still don't know what to think of your claim that many more gpu-programmers are needed or coming. Yes 3d  is the future especially for faces but will guys like me program their own gpu within a few years?  We'll see.

 

For autonomous taxi's and vehicles sure loads of programmers are needed but i don't see them ever avoiding soidogs in Thailand. 

[jerojero]

Economically this is b's in Thailand. Labour costs are so low, why would companies spend billions on robots when they can spend mere millions using Thailand's ultra cheap labour.

 

 

[HOAX]

Jobs may be lost, but new jobs will also be created, just like it has done and continues to happen in the west... post offices, hospitals, car manufacturers, the food industry, packaging and now buses (self-driven), just to mention a few things. This is nothing new. It's just Thailand being behind on most things. I highly doubt automated machines will have any negative effect on Thai employment rates any time soon, but rather the opposite, as it opens up to more opportunities.


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[CLW]

Economically this is b's in Thailand. Labour costs are so low, why would companies spend billions on robots when they can spend mere millions using Thailand's ultra cheap labour.
 
 

Exactly, that is the point. How many people you can hire until the investment cost of a machine is repaid? Especially in the agricultural sector with small plots and niche plants.
My study friends parents have a farm in India, they pay around 2$ for a day of labour.
On the other hand, big sized farms in eastern Germany can handle 500ha excluding livestock, with 1 person.
Hiring contractors for harvest but the usual work is done by only 1 person

[CLW]

Thailand is #1 Cassava exporting nation yet there is no mechanical harvester available.
That says a lot. Anyone who has seen or done this work, it's really hard physical work and low productivity.

[Johpa]

5 hours ago, HOAX said:

Jobs may be lost, but new jobs will also be created, just like it has done and continues to happen in the west... post offices, hospitals, car manufacturers, the food industry, packaging and now buses (self-driven), just to mention a few things. This is nothing new. It's just Thailand being behind on most things. I highly doubt automated machines will have any negative effect on Thai employment rates any time soon, but rather the opposite, as it opens up to more opportunities.

 

Amazon had created thousands of jobs.  But it has also destroyed more jobs in the retail sector than it has created.  Same way that Walmart created many jobs but destroyed far more.  And Walmart not only destroyed jobs on mainstreet towns, but destroyed the towns themselves.  The main streets of these towns never came back, they are deserted.  The impact of this new emerging wave of AI technology is yet to be seen.

 

Due to low wages Thailand will probably be hit less hard initially than will the US and Europe. In those higher wage countries most truck drivers and taxi drivers will be out of a job within around 10 years.  And it will not be just the lower skilled jobs.  Radiologists are already being beat by AI algorithms although AI working together with radiologist currently comes out on top of the ratings.  Any new jobs created by these emerging technologies of machine learning will not be nearly sufficient to replace the lost jobs, and we are not even talking about providing for all the continuous new workers entering the workplace. Look at Google (or Alphabet these days), one of the technology leaders and one of the leaders, if not the leader, in AI.  They have a mere 61,000 employees with a $600 billion in market cap. Then compare to Ford with 200,000 employees with about $30 billion in market cap.  The idea that technology will save ourselves is the cargo cult of the 21st Century.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎04‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 4:37 AM, manarak said:

there is this hype about 3D printing.

 

3D printing is little more than children's plasticine formed by robot hands - well, the material used is a bit more resilient than plasticine, but not much.

 

the key in producing stuff are the materials. if you want a knife, you need high grade stainless steel and a "printer" capable of working with it... we are back at the good old metallurgy machines.

 

of course you could also "print" a knife made of plasticine. won't be of much use though.

Have you not seen plastic knives in the shops? Even Thai Air uses hi quality plastic cutlery for economy meals.

Sharp knives are made from plastic with a thin piece of steel for an edge. Easily assembled by robots and no AI needed.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎04‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 8:13 PM, Johpa said:

 

Amazon had created thousands of jobs.  But it has also destroyed more jobs in the retail sector than it has created.  Same way that Walmart created many jobs but destroyed far more.  And Walmart not only destroyed jobs on mainstreet towns, but destroyed the towns themselves.  The main streets of these towns never came back, they are deserted.  The impact of this new emerging wave of AI technology is yet to be seen.

 

Due to low wages Thailand will probably be hit less hard initially than will the US and Europe. In those higher wage countries most truck drivers and taxi drivers will be out of a job within around 10 years.  And it will not be just the lower skilled jobs.  Radiologists are already being beat by AI algorithms although AI working together with radiologist currently comes out on top of the ratings.  Any new jobs created by these emerging technologies of machine learning will not be nearly sufficient to replace the lost jobs, and we are not even talking about providing for all the continuous new workers entering the workplace. Look at Google (or Alphabet these days), one of the technology leaders and one of the leaders, if not the leader, in AI.  They have a mere 61,000 employees with a $600 billion in market cap. Then compare to Ford with 200,000 employees with about $30 billion in market cap.  The idea that technology will save ourselves is the cargo cult of the 21st Century.

Talking about driverless trucks- the US army is building driverless trucks. How long till they build robot war machines ( drones are just the start ) and sci fi becomes reality. Wait till they hack the drones...................................

 

I still can't get over how a robot can talk to me on the telephone like a real human, but it's happening. We complain about talking to some Indian in call centers, but that will end soon as computers take over.

The latest Resident Evil movie is all CGI- no humans at all.

 

AI working together with radiologist currently comes out on top

For how long? Don't need to train AI or send them to school. It's all human replaceable. Remember WALL E movie? Bunch of fat humans being taken care of by robots. I guess everyone will need a robot to infuse them with insulin when their fat bodies become diabetic.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎04‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 3:06 PM, CLW said:

Exactly, that is the point. How many people you can hire until the investment cost of a machine is repaid? Especially in the agricultural sector with small plots and niche plants.
My study friends parents have a farm in India, they pay around 2$ for a day of labour.
On the other hand, big sized farms in eastern Germany can handle 500ha excluding livestock, with 1 person.
Hiring contractors for harvest but the usual work is done by only 1 person

I explained that already- when the machines are building the machines the cost per unit will come down. It always works that way. Cars were expensive before Henry Fords factories started.

Once big companies can undercut the local small businesses they will buy out the small plots and mechanise- millions of Indian labourers will be unemployed. Same in Thailand.

It's already happening in my wife's village. Corn harvesting is mechanized.

 

The time to discuss this is NOW, but the government is more concerned about CO2. Perhaps they are too scared to discuss it publicly, as the truth will scare the population excessively.

Whatever, the coming unemployment crisis is far more important than climate change.

Edited June 16, 2017 by thaibeachlovers

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎01‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 7:20 AM, grumbleweed said:

While the machines will all have to be adapted to accept brown envelopes, I can think of at least one industry that machines wont be replacing anytime soon

Japanese have had love dolls for years. Won't be long before they are mechanized. Be better than the real thing, I think.

Wait for the wowsers to try and ban them though.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎01‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 7:40 AM, maewang99 said:

yes. fewer of the boring jobs.
 

but more jobs for technologists and researchers... as we will ****all**** have a higher standard of living...

with robots, drones and AV's delivering basic everyday products.... bought online... without even a need to go to a market....

so cheap there is no need to even look for bargains.... everything becomes a commodity.... and priced by fully computerized markets...

 

which means time saved.... 

 

so we can focus on new and exciting horizons such as putting people on Mars by 2024 which we are on course to do beginning with supply ships being sent next year.

 

 

and what happens to all the people without jobs? You think they are just going to happily exist on whatever crumbs the so called elites throw their way?

Think 1789.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎01‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 8:50 AM, timber said:

If the government was on the ball there would be a lot of opportunities for work in forestry and creating recreation sites doing work that is currently not being done and has a payback.  Planting species like teak and the thinning, pruning and fertilization would increase the volume and have a payback.  If on government land could then sell the timber to small mills though auctions and employ more people.  Opportunities for crafts people to create wood products. I can show you how to make valuable products out of second growth rather than old growth. This would also be encouraged by taxing private lands and having reduced taxation for forested private lands.  The time to do something is now.  The money is there, all that is need for proper representation on the concept, and visualization on the part of the politicians.  There are nice places for recreation visits in places that are untidy, clogged with vegetation.  Opportunities for trail work to encourage visits.  This would create payback opportunities for adjacent communities.  Should be a lot more camping sites constructed so wouldn't have to stay in hotels.  Etc. etc. etc.

That's fine in the present situation, but look at the big picture. Millions of poor workers replaced by machines will create social chaos. Who's going to want to go to nature parks if they face being attacked by poverty stricken hordes outside their gated compounds.

 

This isn't a minor blip in human evolution- it's potentially the replacement of human work and commerce by AI and robots.

However, it's only beginning to be talked about officially and far too late. Anyone with children should be more concerned than they are.

 

People need to WAKE UP.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎01‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 8:19 AM, luk AJ said:

We can't stop evolution and your assumption that 50% of the population will be left behind will create a very dangerous situation. If these 50% have nothing to do, they are capable of destroying everything..



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IMO more like 90% of the population will have nothing meaningful to do. Look at the chaos caused by a mere 5 or so % unemployed and extrapolate that.

Anyone fancy that the 1% will be helping out voluntarily? 

[thaibeachlovers]

It's not all bad though. Given the latest CGI films are so realistic, it won't be long before we don't have to be offended by such as Di Caprio lecturing us about climate change as he flies around the world on his jet plane. He and all his ilk will also be unemployed.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎01‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 10:10 AM, xerostar said:

The future holds plenty of jobs for Thai people !
e.g. Cleaning up the garbage ..
That should keep a few million workers busy for the next 50 years.

No, WALL E will be doing that.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎01‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 10:42 AM, thhMan said:

Did cars ruin the economy?

Or Airplanes?

Or Radio?

 

Cars ruined the environment, airplanes are causing climate change ( so they say ) and radio hasn't been the same since the 60s.

Moderation in all things is good, but there are just too many people now for the planet to support without damage.

 

Plastic has killed the oceans already.

Pesticides have poisoned the earth.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎01‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 10:49 AM, Moti24 said:

"He also warned women are more likely to be adversely affected by automation than men..."

 

Pattaya's Soi 6 should survive, then.

That's wrong. Women are concentrated in non physical jobs such as lawyers and secretarial that will be the last to be automated. They will also try and stop sex androids so they keep getting suckers ( speaking as an ex sucker ) to marry them.

[luk AJ]

IMO more like 90% of the population will have nothing meaningful to do. Look at the chaos caused by a mere 5 or so % unemployed and extrapolate that.
Anyone fancy that the 1% will be helping out voluntarily? 

It is worrisome, 90% is probably in reach to be replaced by machines. This part of the population has no use anymore for further evolution of mankind. In time they will just cease to exist. So there will be not much demand left for consumer goods. Our species is nearing the ultimate goal of evolution. To become even more advanced in all possible ways we will create androids with multiple times our own capacities which in turn will make us useless. Why continue with mortal and desease prone simple humans when a new robotic race with super intelligence is created. They won't need us anymore even not as slaves. THE END


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[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎02‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 0:31 AM, ericthai said:

those are the guys that will be needed to fix the robots.  Hope they dont run those robots on Windows. 

Actually I dont believe all this robot take over crap.  They still cant have a robot independently climb a set of steps or open a door without being pre-programmed to so just that task.  We were suppose to have flying cars by now.. 

 

 

 

The robots will fix robots- no humans required.

They still cant have a robot independently climb a set of steps or open a door without being pre-programmed to so just that task.

That was true before AI, not in the near future.

Robotics without AI is just machinery, robots with AI are human replacements.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎03‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 0:20 AM, Ruffian Dick said:

Okay, let's unpack this little morsel of alarmism. First, in the video, we see employees in a factory, which looks like Pegatron, FoxConn or some other iphone plant in China. The fact is people are buying cell phones, they are building and selling iphones, nobody's losing their jobs due to this. Definitely not farm jobs!

 

Alarmist journalism aside, "AI" technology, let alone robotics, has a LONG way to go before machines can take over any of the industries and positions mentioned.

 

Here is something a little more accurate. You and I and everybody you know will be long gone before this happens, if there isn't a Luddite revolution first.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607970/experts-predict-when-artificial-intelligence-will-exceed-human-performance/

You and I and everybody you know will be long gone before this happens,

Agreed, except for the kids I know.

That is why anyone with children should be concerned.

 

People will only buy i phones if they have money to spare. People on foodstamps probably don't.

[luk AJ]

We still look at things relative to time because we are mortal..100y, 1000y eventually these robots will be 1000 times more advanced.


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[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎03‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 10:46 PM, oldcarguy said:

Where do you learn  about CNC machining , 3D printing and other things that use G-Code  ?

 

and is the same idea as G-code used in Robotics ?

 

Anything simple on You Tube to start ?

 

as far as AI in agriculture ,  I can see it used for planting , watering etc

but will it be able to pick ripe fruit and leave the rest ?

 

 

 

 

Machine agriculture wastes a lot of food, but it makes so much that some loss is acceptable from a commercial point of view. Fruit pickers ( they are developing a Kiwifruit picker in New Zealand ) will pick everything and the unwanted fruit will be discarded at the packing plants, just as happens now. I never inspected each individual Kiwifruit when I picked the things- no one that I know does.

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎03‎.‎06‎.‎2017 at 11:05 PM, jcsmith said:

Self-driving vehicles for example, how long is it before they replace the majority of taxis and 18 wheel shipping? How much safer will they be? How much more capable will they be at diagnosing and recognizing engine problems than your average driver? 
 

Once medical technology is available in everyone's phones (another great tool) it will give people less reason to visit the doctor's office. Less demand for positions will naturally mean less jobs.

 

Programmers, artists, PR people, etc may not be in any danger any time soon. But eventually they too will eventually feel the effects of this. 
 

I just don't think any of this stuff is avoidable. It's also not necessarily a bad thing, provided that people can live reasonable lives. I'm one who thinks that things like Brain-Computer Interfaces are a positive part of the future. But certainly within the next 10-20 years there's going to be a lot of changes, a lot of jobs lost, while the population continues to grow.  It's something that will need to be addressed and that people need to be (and are) thinking about.

Modern cars self diagnose. The mech just plugs the car into the shop computer and are told what to replace.

 

Dr's replaced- great. I have had a lot of problems from misdiagnosis and wrong treatment.

Good to take down some of those that think they are god.

 

Artists already do a lot using computers- easily replaced by AI.

Film actors all in danger from CGI eg the latest Resident Evil film. Wonder when the first computer is going to be given a star outside the Chinese theatre?

 

The zillion $ question. WILL people be able to live reasonable lives if they are not already rich?

[MalandLee]

I have not read the entire thread, hence I apologise if this has been mentioned!

 

This is one more way the super rich become richer, BUT, we can slow them down - they care little for humanity.

 

TAX their robots - yes each robot taking a human job should be allocated an hourly rate OR "piecework" rate, based on the "displaced" human. The same income tax should then be applied as if they were human. 

 

I realise it is not so simplistic, however, we will increasingly be displaced by AI (Artificial Intelligence). Our working weeks could be reduced and "creative" leisure time could replace working hours. The rich adapted to "leisure" they are no better than you or I, simply based on their wealth.

 

It is unlikely we will halt the progress of AI or displacement by machine - but we can learn to benefit from it,

 

Don't you think??

 

 

[jvs]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Cars ruined the environment, airplanes are causing climate change ( so they say ) and radio hasn't been the same since the 60s.

Moderation in all things is good, but there are just too many people now for the planet to support without damage.

 

Plastic has killed the oceans already.

Pesticides have poisoned the earth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iwuy4hHO3YQ

[dcnx]

On 5/31/2017 at 2:06 PM, Cuchulainn said:

Thais v Machines

 

Looking forward to some good replies on this one!!  

Jobs will decrease, crime will increase.

 

This is a no brainer.

[manarak]

22 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Have you not seen plastic knives in the shops? Even Thai Air uses hi quality plastic cutlery for economy meals.

Sharp knives are made from plastic with a thin piece of steel for an edge. Easily assembled by robots and no AI needed.

your mind is still busy with this machines stuff, eh ?