Factbox: What happens with Brexit if there's no clear winner of UK election?

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Factbox: What happens with Brexit if there's no clear winner of UK election?

By William James

 

Votes are being recounted at a counting centre during Britain's election in Kendal, June 9, 2017. REUTERS/Andrew Yates

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party failed to win a parliamentary majority in Britain's election on Friday, a shock result that plunges domestic politics into turmoil and could delay Brexit talks.

 

Reuters calculations based on partial election results showed May could no longer win an outright majority, leaving Britain with a 'hung parliament'.

 

Below are details of what happens next:

 

WHO GETS POWER?

For the election to produce a majority government, the biggest party theoretically must win at least 326 seats of the 650 United Kingdom constituencies. In practice, the threshold for a majority is around 323, because the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein party takes up no seats that it wins in Northern Ireland.

 

As incumbent, May has the right to make the first attempt to form a coalition, though her tough stance on Brexit is likely to make finding a suitable partner difficult.

 

Until a new government is formed, May and her team of ministers remain in charge and retain their full legal powers to act on behalf of the country, although by convention they would be expected to avoid taking major decisions.

 

MINORITY CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT

May signalled she could attempt to lead a government without commanding a majority, relying on her opponents for support in parliament on an issue-by-issue basis.

 

Speaking as results were still being counted, she said Britain needed a period of stability and that she would take responsibility for delivering it if, as forecast, she won the most seats.

 

This will test the cross-party support for her pre-election pledges.

 

While her hardline Brexit strategy is opposed by all other major parties, Britain has already started the clock ticking on leaving the bloc by triggering a two-year negotiation period with Brussels. It is unlikely she would agree to stopping the Brexit divorce.

 

Nevertheless, May's plans still rely heavily on being able to pass legislation through parliament. Firstly to convert EU law into British law, and then to form new post-Brexit policy on issues like immigration and tax.

 

Delays or outright blockages on this legislation would place doubts over how Britain would control its borders and trade with the EU after Brexit.

 

May's fiscal agenda, including plans to balance the budget by the middle of the next decade through a continuation of existing austerity policy, would also be opposed by rival parties.

 

Her domestic reforms on issues ranging from fox-hunting to cuts to social care and education funding would also meet substantial resistance and demands for change.

 

However, her plans to clamp down on executive pay, give workers a say on strategy and make it harder for foreign firms to take over British ones could win support in principle, although others would probably demand changes to the policies before agreeing to back them.

 

2010 REDUX: CONSERVATIVE-LED COALITION

The Conservatives formed a coalition in 2010 with the centrist, pro-EU Liberal Democrats as junior partner. They governed together until 2015.

 

The two parties are unlikely to be reunited in coalition without major compromises on the central principle of their election manifestos: Brexit.

 

The Conservatives are committed to a complete break with the EU regardless of whether a satisfactory exit deal can be reached. By contrast, the Liberal Democrats have promised voters a second referendum on whether to accept a deal with Brussels.

 

Electoral maths do not favour a second coalition. The Liberal Democrats were expected to hold around 16 seats, down from 57 in 2010. This limits their ability to take May's support above the require threshold.

 

The party is led by Tim Farron, 47, who began his campaign by telling Britons they should have the option of rejecting Brexit in a second referendum and remaining within the EU.

 

The Conservatives' other coalition options are limited. They can traditionally rely on the support of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, which holds 10 seats.

 

The Scottish National Party (SNP), which was forecast by media commentators to win 35 seats, are at ideological loggerheads with the Conservatives.

 

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has argued that Scotland, where a majority voted to remain in the EU last year, should not be bound by May's plan to withdraw from the EU single market, and have the right to hold an independence referendum at the end of the Brexit process.

 

LABOUR-LED COALITION

A hung parliament could play in Labour's favour even if it won less seats than the Conservatives because it is politically closer to smaller rivals on several issues. Labour has said it would try to form a minority government, and Corbyn has refused to discuss forming a coalition after June 8.

 

He is committed to heeding the results of Britain's EU membership referendum a year ago in which 52 percent voted Leave against 48 percent in favour of Remain.

 

However, Labour has fought to water down May's Brexit strategy which could make it easier to reach a compromise with either the Liberal Democrats, which has ruled out any coalition, or the pro-European SNP, which says it wants to stop another Conservative government.

 

Labour has said it will tear up May's Brexit negotiating priorities, instead focusing the talks on retaining the benefits of the EU single market and customs union. It has also promised to consult parliament more closely throughout the negotiations.

 

Corbyn, who would be in charge of negotiating any coalition deal, has said he will ensure there is a deal agreed with the EU before Britain leaves, and give parliament a "meaningful vote" on whether to accept the terms of a final deal.

 

Labour has not defined what constitutes a meaningful vote, and this would likely be one area where pro-EU parties would demand the power for parliament to send the government back to Brussels to get a better deal - or even to halt the Brexit process altogether.

 

Beyond Brexit, Labour plans a radical change in Britain's fiscal policy: raising taxes on large firms and the wealthy to pay for higher public spending on education, healthcare and police - an agenda that would fit with the anti-austerity SNP.

 

Labour's finance spokesman and close Corbyn ally, John McDonnell, says he can achieve this while ensuring the national debt is reduced over the course of the next parliament.

 

However, Labour has also committed to creating a 250 billion pound fund for investment in infrastructure which will be spent over a 10-year period, indicating it will be funded by borrowing.

 

Economists expect a Labour-led government to substantially increase bond issuance, with the effect of increasing borrowing costs over the long term.

 

In what has been described as one of the most left-wing Labour manifestos for decades, Labour has also promised to take on multinational corporations and what Corbyn has called "wealth extractors".

 

Labour has pledged to raise corporation tax to 26 percent from 19 percent and impose higher taxes on the top 5 percent of earners.

 

(Additional reporting by Robin Gillham; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Elizabeth Piper)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-06-09

[jpinx]

What a mess!!  Politicians and party-political politics at it's worst!   

[sujoop]

With a vastly weakened mandate and hand, is it wise to rush along with Brexit?
 

Also for consideration:
'The author of Article 50 has already ridiculed claims that the treaty clause cannot be stopped once it has been invoked.  Lord Kerr told peers during a parliamentary session last month: “If, having looked into abyss, we changed our minds about withdrawal, we certainly could - and no-one in Brussels could stop us.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-article-50-xavier-bettel-i-love-you-theresa-may-a7621091.html

 

EU leaked document: Britain can reverse Article 50:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-brexit-resolution-article-50-can-be-revoked-2017-3

 

Edited June 9, 2017 by sujoop

[citybiker]

PMTM to go to Buckingham palace to request permission to form a government with the DUP (loosely) supporting her in an informal coalition.

Source: BBC news


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[baboon]

19 minutes ago, citybiker said:

PMTM to go to Buckingham palace to request permission to form a government with the DUP (loosely) supporting her in an informal coalition.

Source: BBC news


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Let's see how long that lasts...

[citybiker]

Let's see how long that lasts...

I give PMTM 18/24 months maximum, the 1922 committee will have the final say.

I just hope that Boris Johnson isn't the replacement.


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[Baerboxer]

2 hours ago, jpinx said:

What a mess!!  Politicians and party-political politics at it's worst!   

 

Indeed. But totally created by the Tories. Cameron's Brexit balls up followed by May's now.

 

Not exactly inspiring.

[evadgib]

I haven't a clue where this is going but in the long term PR is surely better than this!

[jpinx]

Just now, evadgib said:

I haven't a clue where this is going but in the long term PR is surely better than this!

That's been floated before but rejected because it cuts down on MP's individual influence.  They will not willingly give up one iota of power!!!!

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, baboon said:

Let's see how long that lasts...

 

The Tories will keep her in that seat now, but she'll be reined in and controlled more. She'll be there until they decide things have calmed down enough to hold a leadership contest.

 

I thought she was appalling as Home Secretary but surpassed that with her dismal PM performance. Worst campaigner ever. An expert at pissing people off. 

 

But who'll replace her? The loathsome Gove, charisma queen Rudd, or bookies' favorite Boris. 

 

Who said things can't get worse!

[evadgib]

Davis?

[fvw53]

1 hour ago, citybiker said:

 

I give PMTM 18/24 months maximum, the 1922 committee will have the final say.

I just hope that Boris Johnson isn't the replacement.


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after Trump at the helm in the US, Boris Johnson as PM would be his soulmate to illustrate the decline of Western democracies

[evadgib]

I saw something in the small print that another GE could follow in Oct if we're not careful.

 

Tories might also spring a leadership challenge after the German election & before the conference season in Oct.

 

Yer couldn't make it up either way ?

Edited June 9, 2017 by evadgib

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, jpinx said:

What a mess!!  Politicians and party-political politics at it's worst!   

And Best ?

[Grouse]

The EU are being very gentlemanly about it. They are standing back and waiting till Teresa gets up off her knees. They will wait until the UK are in a fit state to negotiate; about 5 years from now ?

Edited June 9, 2017 by Grouse

[champers]

Go Thai. Let's have a military coup; bloodless of course. Democracy is such a drag and something new would be interesting, if a tad controversial. Be nice to see some new political (well military, really) figures coming to the fore. The Queen could give her backing and then everything will be alright.

[citybiker]

after Trump at the helm in the US, Boris Johnson as PM would be his soulmate to illustrate the decline of Western democracies

I hope the 1922 committee will seriously consider David Davis.

Brexit will make or break that decision.


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[champers]

5 minutes ago, citybiker said:

 

I hope the 1922 committee will seriously consider David Davis.

Brexit will make or break that decision.


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40 plus Tory MPs have to write a letter to get the ball rolling if TM is to go. I thought she would resign. Her judgement has been shown to be seriously flawed. Her ego got the better of her and is still doing. 

[wakeupplease]

34 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The EU are being very gentlemanly about it. They are standing back and waiting till Teresa gets up off her knees. They will wait until the UK are in a fit state to negotiate; about 5 years from now ?

The EU you mean those in Germany taking over Europe by the back door

 

The UK fights best when its on its knees as you call it.

 

The EU is a waste of time and money, a superclub of sheep and idiots

[sujoop]

1 hour ago, fvw53 said:

after Trump at the helm in the US, Boris Johnson as PM would be his soulmate to illustrate the decline of Western democracies

 

 

Ironic as BoJo clearly sought to abrogate any personal leadership/responsibility until after someone else drank from the poisoned Brexit chalice -and expired as a result... Perhaps he'll step up in say 12 months, or another more opportune time? (after the heavy lifting is done and casualties cleared away, of course)

[terryw]

The DUP will insist that there is an open border with the Republic.

 

Simplest solution is for the UK to retain membership of the EEA and negotiate with the EU with us still in the Customs Union.

 

Any discussion about a Hard or Soft Brexit then becomes irrelevant. We can leave the EEA with 1 years notice.

[William C F Pierce]

May's majority by the support of the DUP, may not last long. An overall  majority of 4 seats is so small she can be brought down and another General Election held before the end of the year.

[citybiker]

May's majority by the support of the DUP, may not last long. An overall  majority of 4 seats is so small she can be brought down and another General Election held before the end of the year.

 

The electorate will not want nor appreciate another GE whilst Brexit talks are ongoing.

 

It's in the DUP's best interests to ensure they support May, in turn NI will get well looked after.

 

 

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[pitrevie]

5 hours ago, citybiker said:

 

The electorate will not want nor appreciate another GE whilst Brexit talks are ongoing.

 

It's in the DUP's best interests to ensure they support May, in turn NI will get well looked after.

 

 

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Just like they didn't appreciate May going to the country and asking for a larger majority when she already had a working majority in Parliament and when that Parliament still had 3 years life left. Just like Cameron she appealed to the country and just like Cameron that appeal failed. The difference being that Cameron accepted that decision and despite still having a majority in Parliament, resigned. TM should now do the same and allow someone else to take up the leadership of the Tory party.

[evadgib]

4 hours ago, pitrevie said:

Just like they didn't appreciate May going to the country and asking for a larger majority when she already had a working majority in Parliament and when that Parliament still had 3 years life left. Just like Cameron she appealed to the country and just like Cameron that appeal failed. The difference being that Cameron accepted that decision and despite still having a majority in Parliament, resigned. TM should now do the same and allow someone else to take up the leadership of the Tory party.

She'll be gone by October.

 

We'll be gone too by 31 Mar 19 ?

[pitrevie]

2 minutes ago, evadgib said:

She'll be gone by October.

 

We'll be gone too by 31 Mar 19 ?

"As far as the Commission is concerned we can open negotiations tomorrow morning at half past nine,"  

The EU's foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, said it was uncertain when Britain would have a clear Brexit strategy.
"One year after their referendum, we still don't know the British position in the negotiations on Brexit and it seems difficult to predict when we will, 

 

We know when it started and as Tusk observed and as you state we know when it all ends but I think its the in between that appears to be the problem on the British side.

[evadgib]

Hislop & Co had a field day last night ?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08tp54m/have-i-got-news-for-you-series-53-8-election-special

[jpinx]

7 hours ago, pitrevie said:

Just like they didn't appreciate May going to the country and asking for a larger majority when she already had a working majority in Parliament and when that Parliament still had 3 years life left. Just like Cameron she appealed to the country and just like Cameron that appeal failed. The difference being that Cameron accepted that decision and despite still having a majority in Parliament, resigned. TM should now do the same and allow someone else to take up the leadership of the Tory party.

Agreed -- but Who???   There's not a competent politician of any hue on the horizon.....     

[pitrevie]

1 hour ago, jpinx said:

Agreed -- but Who???   There's not a competent politician of any hue on the horizon.....     

Do you mean to tell me that a party that has over 300 MPs many of whom have served in the cabinet and the highest levels of government cannot produce just one candidate for PM. If that is the case then time to shut up shop. I never thought May was PM material after her disastrous stint at the Home Office but for some reason she thought she was and so did her party. All she ever showed was ambition but very little conviction.

[citybiker]

"As far as the Commission is concerned we can open negotiations tomorrow morning at half past nine,"  
The EU's foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, said it was uncertain when Britain would have a clear Brexit strategy.
"One year after their referendum, we still don't know the British position in the negotiations on Brexit and it seems difficult to predict when we will, 
 
We know when it started and as Tusk observed and as you state we know when it all ends but I think its the in between that appears to be the problem on the British side.

You do know it's wise not to publicise what the Brexit strategy is yes?

It will be very complicated, tough and tight time frame.




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