Bt170-bn loan on track for high-speed rail link

[webfact]

Bt170-bn loan on track for high-speed rail link
By The Nation

 

 

FINANCE MINISTER SAYS FUNDING NOT A PROBLEM AND CHINESE FUNDS ACCEPTABLE

 

BANGKOK: -- THE FINANCE MINISTRY is ready to accept a massive loan of up to Bt170 billion to finance the Thai-Chinese high-speed train project pending the Transport Ministry’s final proposal on the controversial scheme, Finance Minister Apisak Tantiworawong says.

 

The first portion of Bt1.7 billion is already included in the 2018 budget for detailed designs and consultancy work on the Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima route. 

 

Apisak said terms and conditions will be based on the project’s financing plan and the government can borrow from both domestic and foreign sources.

 

The finance minister said if China |proposes a cheap loan, the government |will consider it, so funding is not a problem. At this stage, he said, the Finance Ministry is awaiting the Transport Ministry’s final version of the project.

 

Deputy premier Somkid Jatusripitak said Thailand would greatly benefit from China’s further extension of the high-speed train project, which will link the country with the rest of mainland Asean, even though the initial investment cost is |relatively high.

 

Somkid said the project exemplifies the Thai government’s long-term vision for cross-border development where China is spearheading a major foreign trade and investment drive that covers many countries around the world, including those in Africa and Latin America.

 

In Southeast Asia, Thailand is centrally located with neighbours such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, plus Malaysia in the south and China in the north, so its strategic location will allow the high-speed train system to connect with many other countries in the future.

 

However, Korn Chatikavanich, a former finance minister of the Abhisit government, said yesterday the Thai-Chinese train |project should be financed as a joint venture between Thailand and China. He said such a huge investment could lose money and the Thai government would have to set aside a budget to subsidise the service once it is operational.

 

Not economically worth it: Korn

 

In 2010, during the Abhisit government’s tenure, the project was set to be 51 per cent owned by the Thai government and 49 per cent by the Chinese government, as China would benefit more from selling its technology to Thailand. In Korn’s |opinion, it would not be economically worthwhile for Thailand to wholly invest in this project.

 

Korn said the high-speed train from Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima would not be profitable because there are other transport alternatives, such as the new double-rail service and a motorway project.

 

According to Somkid, the project will lead to many jobs for Thai people as Chinese experts will be hired only for technical and systems work. He said two previous governments could not get the project off the ground so the Prayut government would have to push for it to proceed.

 

Somkid admitted the project would not generate big returns to cover the entire cost, but there would be other economic benefits, such as development along the route from Bangkok to northeastern provinces.

 

He said Japan’s famous Shinkansen train system was initiated five decades ago and there were few passengers in the initial years, but it later proved to be more |popular.

 

In this context, he said, Thailand is already lagging far behind in terms of |railway development.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30319177

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-06-27

[Smarter Than You]

I wonder what has inspired all of these election boycotting former Democrat MP's to suddenly grow a set?

[Ricardo]

Perhaps the realisation that it's not only Yingluck & Thaksin, who can do a bad deal, when negotiating with our financially-astute northern-neighbours ?

 

In which case, good for Khun Korn for speaking up, as so many former PTP-MPs failed to do, when the no-oversight PTP-financing-loan was on-the-table.

 

" However, Korn Chatikavanich, a former finance minister of the Abhisit government, said yesterday the Thai-Chinese train |project should be financed as a joint venture between Thailand and China. He said such a huge investment could lose money and the Thai government would have to set aside a budget to subsidise the service once it is operational. "

 

In particular, he correctly identifies that it is important to give China a real (ie. financial) incentive to send enough freight down the new route, to help it achieve break-even & then profitability.  If Thailand presses-ahead on-its-own, with the Thai section of the project, then China are less-committed to using it.

 

All the fluff about it being justified by the improvement in domestic-travel to Isaan is of course merely to aid selling the investment to the Thai people.

[Dave67]

260k roughly of Viaducts, Land Viaduct, Tunnels,Track Formation, Signalling, power supply , Track , Drainage, stations , automatic platform doors. Not many interfaces there, i'm sure they'll be able to handle it

[Smarter Than You]

24 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

Perhaps the realisation that it's not only Yingluck & Thaksin, who can do a bad deal, when negotiating with our financially-astute northern-neighbours ?

 

In which case, good for Khun Korn for speaking up, as so many former PTP-MPs failed to do, when the no-oversight PTP-financing-loan was on-the-table.

 

" However, Korn Chatikavanich, a former finance minister of the Abhisit government, said yesterday the Thai-Chinese train |project should be financed as a joint venture between Thailand and China. He said such a huge investment could lose money and the Thai government would have to set aside a budget to subsidise the service once it is operational. "

 

In particular, he correctly identifies that it is important to give China a real (ie. financial) incentive to send enough freight down the new route, to help it achieve break-even & then profitability.  If Thailand presses-ahead on-its-own, with the Thai section of the project, then China are less-committed to using it.

 

All the fluff about it being justified by the improvement in domestic-travel to Isaan is of course merely to aid selling the investment to the Thai people.

I hardly believe a few Democrats growing a set has anything to do with altruism.

The old system was the military and/or courts throw out the elected government and hand the reigns to the Democrats.

This time the Generals aren't handing anything over, Korn and co seemed to have just realised this.

[HappyinNE]

The only way this will come close to being a viable piece is it they move the sinking Capital from Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima.

[Srikcir]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

THE FINANCE MINISTRY is ready to accept a massive loan of up to Bt170 billion to finance the Thai-Chinese high-speed train project

Round and round we go and where the "buck" stops we know.

 

• The Prime Minister has denied reports that the government would obtain a loan from China to implement the Thai-Chinese high-speed train project (21 June 2017)https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/988808-pm-no-loan-to-be-sought-from-china-for-high-speed-rail-project/?utm_source=newsletter-20170621-1218&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

• The project will be 100-per-cent funded by the Thai government (22 June 2017) http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30318843
• The project will be 100-per-cent funded by the Thai government (23 June 2017) http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30318836
• Chinese side agreeing to 40 percent of the investment and 60 percent by the Thai side. (26 June 2017) http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/ex-democrat-mp-doubts-transport-minister-tells-truth-thai-chinese-train-project/

Without Article 44 the dual rail project would strangle from all the twist and turns in what is the truth. What is left is a military looking out for its own preservation of power through Chinese relations.

 

 

[Ricardo]

2 hours ago, Smarter Than You said:

I hardly believe a few Democrats growing a set has anything to do with altruism.

The old system was the military and/or courts throw out the elected government and hand the reigns to the Democrats.

This time the Generals aren't handing anything over, Korn and co seemed to have just realised this.

 

You're welcome to believe what you want, personally I always viewed the monthly-stipend to PTP-MPs from their party as a fairly obvious bribe, to toe the party-line and vote through the opaque-financing package.

 

But the OP is about Korn, a respected former finance-minister, questioning the logic of the latest version of the Chinese-Thai medium-speed heavy-freight line, and I think he has a point.  So Good-for-Him, for putting his head above the parapet, and making it, I'd say !

 

Or do you think he's wrong in what he says, I don't think you do ?

 

The Abhisit-government proposal, for a 51%-49% split, was bad enough  ...  but perhaps driven by the pervading Thai idea that they can/need-to retain control of a major project, IMO a more reasonable split might be 20%-80% if one considers where the economic benefits of the completed-line will go.

 

Speaking of those economic benefits, I wonder whether the local trucking & bus-lobbies quite realise, what the impact of this line on them might be ? In another thread, someone was saying that this line will carry a lot of freight inward to Laos, in addition to the domestic-passengers and some Thai-freight moving north to China.  That will surely make for some unhappy Thai truckers !

 

 

[robblok]

4 hours ago, Smarter Than You said:

I wonder what has inspired all of these election boycotting former Democrat MP's to suddenly grow a set?

You see things too black and white.. the guy is good at economics.. just does not agree with this. Neither do I its a stupid program. 

Edited June 27, 2017 by robblok

[Smarter Than You]

4 minutes ago, robblok said:

You see things too black and white.. the guy is good at economics.. just does not agree with this. Neither do I its a stupid program. 

I like that the Democrats are speaking up.

I like that the public are putting up a fight to preserve universal healthcare.

I like that various experts and academics are questioning the rail deal.

 

All of this doesn't erase history though.

This guy and his party were major enablers of the situation Thailand currently finds itself in - always seeking a shortcut to power, good of the country be damned.

 

From The Japanese Times:

"But nothing will be served if the Democrats and other opponents continue their campaign to boycott elections. It can only lead to a choice of mob rule or an army takeover, either of which would be disastrous for Thailand.

Wise Democrats, if there are any, would talk to Yingluck and her allies to set terms for the election and for the behavior of the parliament that is elected. True democrats have to trust the people or there is no meaning in it."

[Cadbury]

The PM is a brave man proudly announcing the Thai government alone will be funding the mega millions for this HS train.

 

I am reminded of an old fable which could be seen as an analogy to this money consuming monster.

 

There was a man who built a beautiful house which had a huge woodburning stove. Feeding the stove finally consumed the house.

 

Edited June 27, 2017 by Cadbury

[candide]

"....the Thai-Chinese train |project should be financed as a joint venture between Thailand and China. He said such a huge investment could lose money...."

Maybe that's exactly the reason why the Chinese are reluctant to share risks....

[ratcatcher]

7 hours ago, Ricardo said:

Perhaps the realisation that it's not only Yingluck & Thaksin, who can do a bad deal, when negotiating with our financially-astute northern-neighbours ?

 

In which case, good for Khun Korn for speaking up, as so many former PTP-MPs failed to do, when the no-oversight PTP-financing-loan was on-the-table.

 

" However, Korn Chatikavanich, a former finance minister of the Abhisit government, said yesterday the Thai-Chinese train |project should be financed as a joint venture between Thailand and China. He said such a huge investment could lose money and the Thai government would have to set aside a budget to subsidise the service once it is operational. "

 

In particular, he correctly identifies that it is important to give China a real (ie. financial) incentive to send enough freight down the new route, to help it achieve break-even & then profitability.  If Thailand presses-ahead on-its-own, with the Thai section of the project, then China are less-committed to using it.

 

All the fluff about it being justified by the improvement in domestic-travel to Isaan is of course merely to aid selling the investment to the Thai people.

 

"In particular, he correctly identifies that it is important to give China a real (ie. financial) incentive to send enough freight down the new route, to help it achieve break-even & then profitability. "

 

"Freight"? Are we talking about HST (aka Shinkaansen, TGV, Chinese "bullet" trains)?

AFAIK, no country uses dedicated HST tracks to move freight trains. What Thailand really needs is a total upgrade of their system to enable freight to be moved from China to Singapore (If that's the plan.) Just how many people are really going to ride a  HST from Bang Sue to Korat? 

 

[Dave67]

4 minutes ago, ratcatcher said:

 

"In particular, he correctly identifies that it is important to give China a real (ie. financial) incentive to send enough freight down the new route, to help it achieve break-even & then profitability. "

 

"Freight"? Are we talking about HST (aka Shinkaansen, TGV, Chinese "bullet" trains)?

AFAIK, no country uses dedicated HST tracks to move freight trains. What Thailand really needs is a total upgrade of their system to enable freight to be moved from China to Singapore (If that's the plan.) Just how many people are really going to ride a  HST from Bang Sue to Korat? 

 

Correct they are know as PDLs , Passenger dedicated lines as in WGPDL Wuhan Guangzhou passenger dedicated line

Edited June 27, 2017 by Dave67

[Ricardo]

24 minutes ago, ratcatcher said:

 

"In particular, he correctly identifies that it is important to give China a real (ie. financial) incentive to send enough freight down the new route, to help it achieve break-even & then profitability. "

 

"Freight"? Are we talking about HST (aka Shinkaansen, TGV, Chinese "bullet" trains)?

AFAIK, no country uses dedicated HST tracks to move freight trains. What Thailand really needs is a total upgrade of their system to enable freight to be moved from China to Singapore (If that's the plan.) Just how many people are really going to ride a  HST from Bang Sue to Korat? 

 

 

No, we're really not talking about high-speed passenger-trains, although those pretty (Hornby ?) models do bear a certain superficial resemblance.  But it suits the Thai politicians to pretend that they are HST, for domestic consumption, as it makes them look good.

 

The Chinese-Thai line is for heavy-freight, primarily to move container-traffic to Laem Chabang, which is a World-top-20 container-port, as an alternative route out of China for their exports.  Which is why I myself believe that they should pay significantly towards the cost of the Thai-section of that route.

 

It can then also have secondary uses, such as domestic passenger-traffic to Isaan, or freight north to Laos & Thai-exports (manufactures or agricultural) to China, but the main justification is heavy-freight south from China.

 

Some of that might also then feed, via a proposed-interchange north of Bangkok, onto the slowly-expanding meter-gauge double-tracked Thai-network, with what effects on local manufacturers one can only imagine !  Anyone for competition ?

 

Or perhaps eventually down to Malaysia & Singapore, the SRT track-dualling is slowly creeping southwards, although that route is currently prone to seasonal-floods IME.

Edited June 27, 2017 by Ricardo

[ratcatcher]

6 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

 

No, we're really not talking about high-speed passenger-trains, although those pretty (Hornby ?) models do bear a certain superficial resemblance.  But it suits the Thai politicians to pretend that they are HST, for domestic consumption, as it makes them look good.

 

The Chinese-Thai line is for heavy-freight, primarily to move container-traffic to Laem Chabang, which is a World-top-20 container-port, as an alternative route out of China for their exports.  Which is why I myself believe that they should pay significantly towards the cost of the Thai-section of that route.

 

It can then also have secondary uses, such as domestic passenger-traffic to Isaan, or freight north to Laos & Thai-exports (anufactured or agricultural) to China, but the main justification is heavy-freight south from China.

 

Some of that might also then feed, via a proposed-interchange north of Bangkok, onto the slowly-expanding meter-gauge double-tracked Thai-network, with what effects on local manufacturers one can only imagine !  Anyone for competition ?

 

Or perhaps eventually down to Malaysia & Singapore, the SRT track-dualling is slowly creeping southwards, although that route is currently prone to seasonal-floods IME.

Interesting. However, why ship freight to Laem Chabang port on the Gulf of Thailand to be loaded on ships that then head south to Singapore, then negotiate the Singapore Strait and the Malacca Strait, heading for the Indian Ocean. Surely the Myanmar Ports  on the Gulf of Martaban/Andaman Sea side would be more efficient and quicker for ship heading for Suez and Europe or down to Southern Africa? I am aware of the China/Thai equation and all its ramifications.

[Dave67]

6 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

 

No, we're really not talking about high-speed passenger-trains, although those pretty (Hornby ?) models do bear a certain superficial resemblance.  But it suits the Thai politicians to pretend that they are HST, for domestic consumption, as it makes them look good.

 

The Chinese-Thai line is for heavy-freight, primarily to move container-traffic to Laem Chabang, which is a World-top-20 container-port, as an alternative route out of China for their exports.  Which is why I myself believe that they should pay significantly towards the cost of the Thai-section of that route.

 

It can then also have secondary uses, such as domestic passenger-traffic to Isaan, or freight north to Laos & Thai-exports (manufactures or agricultural) to China, but the main justification is heavy-freight south from China.

 

Some of that might also then feed, via a proposed-interchange north of Bangkok, onto the slowly-expanding meter-gauge double-tracked Thai-network, with what effects on local manufacturers one can only imagine !  Anyone for competition ?

 

Or perhaps eventually down to Malaysia & Singapore, the SRT track-dualling is slowly creeping southwards, although that route is currently prone to seasonal-floods IME.

Well as you say it cannot be High Speed then , Freight and High speed railways are built to different designs to accomodate axel load , You cannot mix them , Something like 200k and freight is not unknown

[Ricardo]

1 minute ago, ratcatcher said:

Interesting. However, why ship freight to Laem Chabang port on the Gulf of Thailand to be loaded on ships that then head south to Singapore, then negotiate the Singapore Strait and the Malacca Strait, heading for the Indian Ocean. Surely the Myanmar Ports  on the Gulf of Martaban/Andaman Sea side would be more efficient and quicker for ship heading for Suez and Europe or down to Southern Africa? I am aware of the China/Thai equation and all its ramifications.

 

Remember that the main Chinese ports, at the height of their export-boom (when this project was being pushed harder), were getting very busy.  So Laem Chabang, which (as I pointed out) is already an extremely busy container-port, would perhaps help relieve the pressure ?

 

IIRC the route to Thailand would save a day or two, compared to shipping directly out of China.  Shipping by-rail all-the-way down to Singapore was certainly one option during the early-days of the project, which has been mooted off-and-on since the days of the British & French Empires.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunming–Singapore_railway

 

The Chinese are also trying to ramp-up shipment-by-train direct-to-Europe (including the UK !), as another alternative.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38654176

 

The problem with the Andaman-ports as I see it is that they're currently low-volume & congested, with smaller/less-economic ships serving them, but you're quite correct that this may change in the future.   Remember for example the Dawei project a decade ago  ...

 

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21582554-planned-thai-mega-project-myanmar-runs-difficulty-build-it-and-they-might-come

 

But plans for a railway from Kunming to Yangon look to be less-well-advanced and low-speed, possibly due to the terrain ?

 

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/china-trains/myanmar/

 

Perhaps the Chinese will build a freight-route through Myanmar, and ports big enough to handle their traffic, I'm sure the option will have been considered.  China IMO is very good at long-term planning.

[Redline]

First, shouldn't they know by now if China was going to provide a loan?  Second, Japan and Thailand are VERY different countries, and should not be compared.  They will be lucky to recoup 10 percent of the investment before the weeds are growing on the tracks.  I hope I'm wrong...

How is that high speed ferry going by the way?  I've heard nothing