It Was Twenty Years Ago Today....

[allane]

Or, at lest 20 years ago this week; the start of the Asian financial crisis.. Any reflections ? I may offer my own after I receive some input here.

Edited July 4, 2017 by allane

[midas]

" Any reflections ? "

 

I can't pass up such an invitation

This article is from 4 years ago and just because what he says hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not going to happen at all?

I mean you can hardly say things have got better since 2013

 

Thailand's Bubble Economy Is Heading For A 1997-Style Crash
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/#361f17ac1d9b

[craigt3365]

11 hours ago, midas said:

" Any reflections ? "

 

I can't pass up such an invitation

This article is from 4 years ago and just because what he says hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not going to happen at all?

I mean you can hardly say things have got better since 2013

 

Thailand's Bubble Economy Is Heading For A 1997-Style Crash
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/#361f17ac1d9b

Very good article.  From that article:

Quote

The interest alone on this new debt will cost another 3 trillion baht over the next 50 years.

That's for all the new infrastructure projects going on.  The gist of the article is Thailand's economy will pop when China pops.  There are dozens of articles out there about China and their "bubbles".  This is a pretty good one. 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a3564812-363c-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3?mhq5j=e2

 

Quote

 

Is China’s economy turning Japanese?

Three decades after Tokyo’s property bubble burst causing severe damage there are fears that Beijing faces a similar fate

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/26/china-risks-another-downgrade-if-debt-bubble-not-fixed-says-moodys

 

Quote

 

China risks another downgrade if debt bubble not fixed, says Moody's

The ratings agency is likely to attract further criticism from Beijing after doubling down on its view that the economy is headed for trouble

 

 

[Chip Allen]

Some very favorable exchange rates, as I recall.

[freebyrd]

What sticks in my mind is the then PM Chavalit when asked how he would solve the economic woes "Open more Thai restaurants abroad and promote Thai boxing", so I would say things haven't changed much. Thankfully Chavalit exited stage left and Chuan Leekpai led the cavalry charge to clear up the s*it.

 

I exited TL 17 years ago, so can now enjoy the place for brief visits which are (more than) enough. The country now is selfish and materialistic at every turn and shallow as a puddle, but then so is the UK, USA...... and as always, one man's meat.......

 

 

[connda]

15 hours ago, midas said:

" Any reflections ? "

 

I can't pass up such an invitation

This article is from 4 years ago and just because what he says hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not going to happen at all?

I mean you can hardly say things have got better since 2013

 

Thailand's Bubble Economy Is Heading For A 1997-Style Crash
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/#361f17ac1d9b

The world economies are in financial bubbles.  And most of the 'prosperity' in developed nations, and in developing nations such as Thailand, is based on debt and not on individual wealth creation.  Perfect example is the Bank of Thailand's recent move to tighten lending requirements.  It was a move that was met by a fall in bank stocks on the SET.  Investors know that the illusion of prosperity is built on bank debt.  But they are short-sighted: the debt bubble is unsustainable.  At some point the consumers and businesses that build their illusory wealth on debt eventually over-extend and can not service that debt.  When they start using debt to service their debt, the end is near.  Banks have not been responsible and extend loans and credit to those who can not pay it back.  And everyone is in on this Ponzi scheme.  It's not IF the debt bubble and other financial bubbles are gong to pop, but when...
Of course, this could only play out at the regional level, but my guess is that the next time around, the whole house of cards falls.  

Edited July 5, 2017 by connda

[1FinickyOne]

When the dollar closed in on 55 baht to the dollar - everyone told me not to buy baht because it was going to 60... I don't think it ever made it that high... 

[jacobus]

Old John D. Rockefeller used to say, "Competition is a sin."

 

Soros, at the bidding of his masters (int'l banking / mega-corporations cartel -- Rothschilds, Rockefellers, Warburgs and other crony families), did his job very efficiently and crashed the Thai Baht.  

 

As they have done for more than a century, they have continued playing their financial games globally (LIBOR scandal, precious metals manipulation -- just to name a couple).  

 

I agree with Connda, it's a house of cards now and is likely to end in a very big global mess in the near future.  

 

[whatawonderfulday]

4 hours ago, freebyrd said:

What sticks in my mind is the then PM Chavalit when asked how he would solve the economic woes "Open more Thai restaurants abroad and promote Thai boxing", so I would say things haven't changed much. Thankfully Chavalit exited stage left and Chuan Leekpai led the cavalry charge to clear up the s*it.

 

I exited TL 17 years ago, so can now enjoy the place for brief visits which are (more than) enough. The country now is selfish and materialistic at every turn and shallow as a puddle, but then so is the UK, USA...... and as always, one man's meat.......

 

 

you leave my meat out of this 

[freebyrd]

19 minutes ago, whatawonderfulday said:

you leave my meat out of this 

You probably made Sgt Pepper laugh and as you joined TVF on my birthday, you're forgiven

[off road pat]

4 hours ago, connda said:

The world economies are in financial bubbles.  And most of the 'prosperity' in developed nations, and in developing nations such as Thailand, is based on debt and not on individual wealth creation.  Perfect example is the Bank of Thailand's recent move to tighten lending requirements.  It was a move that was met by a fall in bank stocks on the SET.  Investors know that the illusion of prosperity is built on bank debt.  But they are short-sighted: the debt bubble is unsustainable.  At some point the consumers and businesses that build their illusory wealth on debt eventually over-extend and can not service that debt.  When they start using debt to service their debt, the end is near.  Banks have not been responsible and extend loans and credit to those who can not pay it back.  And everyone is in on this Ponzi scheme.  It's not IF the debt bubble and other financial bubbles are gong to pop, but when...
Of course, this could only play out at the regional level, but my guess is that the next time around, the whole house of cards falls.  

Good insight !!!

[Ridler]

It was a good time if you had currency 100 Baht to there GB pound 

[Chivas]

9 hours ago, Ridler said:

It was a good time if you had currency 100 Baht to there GB pound 

Often hear this 100 baht figure but I was here bang on at this time 20 years ago.....best I got think it was Siam Bank was 89.75.....we were all trawling the banks on foot to see who had best rates

[allane]

So, the posts to date seem to fall broadly into two categories:

   a) those who were, and maybe still are, in tourist mode, and remember the favourable exchange rates on foreign currencies;

and, 

b ) those who think the next crash is coming relatively soon.

I wasn't a tourist in or after 1997 and am not now. What I remember most was the profound stupidity of  the Thai people. Well-educated people in high positions (even those who had been at least partially educated outside of Thailand) were blaming the rest of the world for their problems instead of looking in the mirror.  And, I remember having to prove that I was not a criminal every time I tried to send money out of the country, or bring some in. for several years afterward.  

I think that if we all live long enough, Thailand may have another crash, though its odds aren't any greater than those of a lot of other countries,  Foreign financial experts (read "mostly Americans") have been predicting the end for Japan since the early 1990's. While most never put an exact date on their predictions, I sensed at the time that they were talking five to ten years. it has now been 26 years since the great Japanese stock market crash.

[colinneil]

4 hours ago, Chivas said:

Often hear this 100 baht figure but I was here bang on at this time 20 years ago.....best I got think it was Siam Bank was 89.75.....we were all trawling the banks on foot to see who had best rates

Best i got 20 years ago, 92.40 baht to the pound.

Thai farmers bank 2nd road Pattaya.

[Skeptic7]

Best Of Times! Been waiting ever since for history to repeat itself!