France's economy minister tells Britain - 'We want our money back'

[Khun Han]

2 minutes ago, Golgota said:

The hard reality for UK if they just leave the table :
 

According to initial estimates by the British government, leaving the advantages of EU membership behind and switching to use of WTO trade rules would cost the U.K.’s businesses about £65.5 billion per year (or around US$82 billion). Over a 15-year period, this would lower the country’s GDP by between 5.4% and 9.5%. In addition to lost trade, the U.K. may also be on the hook for paying about £20 billion in unpaid bills to the EU.

Analysts believe that the U.K. would find it difficult to replace the lost trade revenues from the EU, which has a consumer market of around 500 million people and a GDP around €12 trillion (US$13 trillion or £10 trillion). About 44% (or £220 billion of £510 billion) of the U.K.’s exports currently go to EU countries. Export trade with the EU is linked to about 12.5% of U.K.’s GDP, while the EU’s trade with the nation is linked to only about 3% of its GDP.

While the country might be able to expand trade unfettered around the world once out of the EU, it might also find it difficult to match the negotiating power of the EU. With more than 50 partners around the globe, the union has more free trade agreements than any other single nation or trading bloc. And in addition to its existing trade agreements, the EU is negotiating agreements with the U.S., Canada, Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand and others.

Pride may be a difficult thing to keep when the reality strikes....

 

All those countries and more have expressed a strong desire to set up trade deals with the UK asap. The USA has even stated that it's going to fast track one.

[Golgota]

1 minute ago, Khun Han said:

 

Firstly, the UK isn't running away, it's currently engaged in negotiations. Secondly, the EU is refusing to provide any details of it's financial demands. Thirdly, there will be no winners from restricted trade, though the EU as an entity will suffer most because of the balance of trade.

Numerous Analysis seem to disagree with you..analysis from UK

[Golgota]

Just now, Khun Han said:

 

All those countries and more have expressed a strong desire to set up trade deals with the UK asap. The USA has even stated that it's going to fast track one.

Ahhh hope VS reality..

We can count on the Orange Agent on the other side of the Atlantic to come with a perfect solution for sure

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, Golgota said:

The hard reality for UK if they just leave the table :
 

According to initial estimates by the British government, leaving the advantages of EU membership behind and switching to use of WTO trade rules would cost the U.K.’s businesses about £65.5 billion per year (or around US$82 billion). Over a 15-year period, this would lower the country’s GDP by between 5.4% and 9.5%. In addition to lost trade, the U.K. may also be on the hook for paying about £20 billion in unpaid bills to the EU.

Analysts believe that the U.K. would find it difficult to replace the lost trade revenues from the EU, which has a consumer market of around 500 million people and a GDP around €12 trillion (US$13 trillion or £10 trillion). About 44% (or £220 billion of £510 billion) of the U.K.’s exports currently go to EU countries. Export trade with the EU is linked to about 12.5% of U.K.’s GDP, while the EU’s trade with the nation is linked to only about 3% of its GDP.

While the country might be able to expand trade unfettered around the world once out of the EU, it might also find it difficult to match the negotiating power of the EU. With more than 50 partners around the globe, the union has more free trade agreements than any other single nation or trading bloc. And in addition to its existing trade agreements, the EU is negotiating agreements with the U.S., Canada, Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand and others.

Pride may be a difficult thing to keep when the reality strikes....

I wonder where on earth all this came from? No reference of course. Well I found it and it's from fxcm, a forex trading magazine! 

 

Nothing like some reliable info to cut and paste, eh?! If you had some pride you might come up with something original.

[Khun Han]

2 minutes ago, Golgota said:

Numerous Analysis seem to disagree with you..analysis from UK

 

Analysts agree that trade restrictions would be bad all round. Some have tried to quantify this, with varying results. The EU exports more to the UK than it imports.

[Khun Han]

4 minutes ago, Golgota said:

Ahhh hope VS reality..

We can count on the Orange Agent on the other side of the Atlantic to come with a perfect solution for sure

 

What gets me is why you Europeans come on these threads to scaremonger, and belittle the UK. If everything's so stacked in the EU's favour, what's bothering you?

[rockingrobin]

21 minutes ago, chrissables said:

We are leaving following the rules of article 50. Those rules state we can legally walk away without owing anything, or we can agree to pay an amount negotiated. We actually don't have to do so, and until the EU can quantify amounts asked for i see no reason to pay.

Please explain , because I dont see where it states that any obligations become defunct

[CaptHaddock]

On 7/20/2017 at 6:54 AM, Dave67 said:

How about we take out the cost of liberating your country from the Nazis

The Nazis were defeated by the Soviets who faced 200 German divisions while the Americans and Brits were whiling away their time on their sideshow in Italy never facing more than 10 divisions. 

[sawadee1947]

1 hour ago, chrissables said:

The article 50 treaty says we are not obliged to pay if we don't reach an agreement. The EU are not helping their cause by not actually quantifying the amounts.

 

If i understand correctly this means if we don't reach an agreement of payments, we can leave and owe nothing. 

Hahahahaha, well, if stay on your island without trading with other countries, surrounded by flourishing continental countries and eating your lambs by yourself, then you are in the same situation as North Korea. No responsible govt. would act like that. So your question is a bit hypothetical. Contracts have to be fulfilled. And what will have to be paid, something between 50 and 100 Bill......who knows. Fact is, if you want to have advantages UK would have to offer something. At present it looks as if UK will go the hard way. With borders, VISA, no free trade and high taxes on imports. (what will happen to Northern Ireland/Republic?) Not good for Europe.

I don't know why some people here in this blog can't see the danger, not only for UK, but all Europe. But as I said before: most Brits here are outdated and too old to see the future. They are not representing UK, for me only the stubborn part.

[JAG]

 

All those countries and more have expressed a strong desire to set up trade deals with the UK asap. The USA has even stated that it's going to fast track one.

I read recently (it may even have been here) that the EU negotiations with Japan, for example, may take up to or more than 5 years. In that case, we will quite possibly have sorted out own deal with them, and the others, before the EU does. At least we won't have to worry about some Belgian regional politicians putting the mockers on things because they want a new swimming pool in Mons or something similar...

 

[nauseus]

I just found this again.

 

Everyone should at least watch it. 42 years ago but still very relevant today.

 

I'm guilty of not appreciating this for too long. Enjoy:

 

 

[chrissables]

12 hours ago, rockingrobin said:

Please explain , because I dont see where it states that any obligations become defunct

Have a read: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/britain-will-not-have-pay-penny-leave-european-union-say-peers/

[chrissables]

11 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

Hahahahaha, well, if stay on your island without trading with other countries, surrounded by flourishing continental countries and eating your lambs by yourself, then you are in the same situation as North Korea. No responsible govt. would act like that. So your question is a bit hypothetical. Contracts have to be fulfilled. And what will have to be paid, something between 50 and 100 Bill......who knows. Fact is, if you want to have advantages UK would have to offer something. At present it looks as if UK will go the hard way. With borders, VISA, no free trade and high taxes on imports. (what will happen to Northern Ireland/Republic?) Not good for Europe.

I don't know why some people here in this blog can't see the danger, not only for UK, but all Europe. But as I said before: most Brits here are outdated and too old to see the future. They are not representing UK, for me only the stubborn part.

Obviously you don't comprehend any comment i have made, i have been stating what as far as i know is fact. My opinion is that if the EU quantify the monetary demands we should discuss the other points.

We have no legal contract to fulfill. 

Visa? I can remember traveling all around Europe as a child, every country had a border post, it was no issue at all.

The referendum represented what Britain wants. Is that difficult for you to understand? 

[Grouse]

14 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

What gets me is why you Europeans come on these threads to scaremonger, and belittle the UK. If everything's so stacked in the EU's favour, what's bothering you?

I'm a European. What are you? (Apart from a misery?)

[sawadee1947]

2 hours ago, chrissables said:

Obviously you don't comprehend any comment i have made, i have been stating what as far as i know is fact. My opinion is that if the EU quantify the monetary demands we should discuss the other points.

We have no legal contract to fulfill. 

Visa? I can remember traveling all around Europe as a child, every country had a border post, it was no issue at all.

The referendum represented what Britain wants. Is that difficult for you to understand? 

most Brits here are outdated and too old to see the future

it seems to me you're one of those?

The referendum represented what Britain wants.

That's not correct. Only those you went to the polls decided. The majority of the youth did not. So the outdated decided about the future for the coming generation. And this next generation doesn't want to have borders nor visa restrictions. Actually what about of those who bought properties in Spain? Would they have to sell and go back home? I think those outdated have no right to destroy the youth's future. (e.g. to study where they want, to live where they want, to work where they want)

I think we should stop this silly conversation. Wait some months then you will see what you'll get. The good thing is: the next generation can enter EU again when this old generation has passed away in a few years. As a Limerick man I hope we'll not have again borders between our 2 parts of my beloved Ireland and the day of reunification will come soon with the next generation!

[rockingrobin]

2 hours ago, chrissables said:

Have a read: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/britain-will-not-have-pay-penny-leave-european-union-say-peers/

The article emphasis is on the UK doing a runner , because the enforceability of any such outstanding obligations will be dependant upon the international reaction 

[chrissables]

11 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

most Brits here are outdated and too old to see the future

it seems to me you're one of those?

The referendum represented what Britain wants.

That's not correct. Only those you went to the polls decided. The majority of the youth did not. So the outdated decided about the future for the coming generation. And this next generation doesn't want to have borders nor visa restrictions. Actually what about of those who bought properties in Spain? Would they have to sell and go back home? I think those outdated have no right to destroy the youth's future. (e.g. to study where they want, to live where they want, to work where they want)

I think we should stop this silly conversation. Wait some months then you will see what you'll get. The good thing is: the next generation can enter EU again when this old generation has passed away in a few years. As a Limerick man I hope we'll not have again borders between our 2 parts of my beloved Ireland and the day of reunification will come soon with the next generation!

Only those who went to polls decided? Well bugger me, thought that was what a referendum entailed, voting! You are making a fool of yourself with this crap you keep writing, pitiful actually.

What about those who have house in spain? They won't be thrown out anymore than the Brits will throw out anyone living in the UK legally.

Study abroad? Do you really think that will stop? They may have to apply first and complete some forms, but if they are intelligent enough to study abroad i would assume they could manage to fill a form in.

[chrissables]

11 minutes ago, rockingrobin said:

The article emphasis is on the UK doing a runner , because the enforceability of any such outstanding obligations will be dependant upon the international reaction 

We are not, at present doing a runner. I hope the EU can quantify the financial demands and we reach an amicable agreement. But this crazy pay up before we negotiate stance is not helping.

The international reaction to UK not paying a bill it legally does not have to pay? Who would care? If the EU with all it's resources and civil servants could not write a contract that accounts for future obligations, they obviously aren't qualified for the job. 

Edited July 25, 2017 by chrissables

[oldhippy]

Who should pay the MP  pension of that Farage clown? The European taxpayer?

 

Remember him?

The guy that complained about only foreign languages spoken when he took a suburban train.

As if a member of the EU paliament would ever travel by train - particularly this Trump hugger.

 

Next he was embarrassed in a radio show by a listener who asked him which of the 3 official Belgian languages he speaks, after living - lavishly - in Brussels for so many years.

 

 

 

 

[rockingrobin]

46 minutes ago, chrissables said:

We are not, at present doing a runner. I hope the EU can quantify the financial demands and we reach an amicable agreement. But this crazy pay up before we negotiate stance is not helping.

The international reaction to UK not paying a bill it legally does not have to pay? Who would care? If the EU with all it's resources and civil servants could not write a contract that accounts for future obligations, they obviously aren't qualified for the job. 

It as not been ascertained that there is no legal liaility for the UK

Since Art 50 does not mention the obligations/commitments, then does not Art 70 of the Vienna Convention apply

The EU is not asking the UK to pay up front before negotiatons, it is requesting that the method to ascertain the liabilities to be finalised before proceeding

 

[chrissables]

1 minute ago, rockingrobin said:

It as not been ascertained that there is no legal liaility for the UK

Since Art 50 does not mention the obligations/commitments, then does not Art 70 of the Vienna Convention apply

The EU is not asking the UK to pay up front before negotiatons, it is requesting that the method to ascertain the liabilities to be finalised before proceeding

 

I wrote wrong, i meant the EU wants us to agree up front before negotiations.

 

I am sure the EU will fight and try to find someway to force payment. But as there is no agreement in law, i can't see how. We are following the laws as were when we signed the Lisbon treaty.

[rockingrobin]

6 minutes ago, chrissables said:

I wrote wrong, i meant the EU wants us to agree up front before negotiations.

 

I am sure the EU will fight and try to find someway to force payment. But as there is no agreement in law, i can't see how. We are following the laws as were when we signed the Lisbon treaty.

The treaties are the agreement in law

[chrissables]

1 minute ago, rockingrobin said:

The treaties are the agreement in law

In that case we have no legal requirement to pay anything, moral, maybe.

[rockingrobin]

4 minutes ago, chrissables said:

In that case we have no legal requirement to pay anything, moral, maybe.

I am having difficulty understanding this

The UK have made future commitments via the treaties in good faith, but have no moral duty to fulfill them ?

[Grouse]

We should "do the right thing".

 

We used to have a terrific reputation. We should remember that!

 

All this talk of legal enforceability is nonsense. We should take the high ground and state clearly that we will pay all our liabilities without equivocation.

 

Yet again we see why refrerendums are a bad idea. Representative democracy is the correct way to run things. Sadly our system of whips undermines it somewhat.

 

Whenever I hear the brexiteer on the street voice an opinion, I just cringe with embarrassment! 

[chrissables]

3 minutes ago, rockingrobin said:

I am having difficulty understanding this

The UK have made future commitments via the treaties in good faith, but have no moral duty to fulfill them ?

I wrote morally maybe, not non. Legally non

 

The commitments that have been made last a year after the leave date, as i understand it. I am sure once the EU quantifies its demands the UK will agree to some payment, but some of the amounts being stated in the press are ridiculous. 

[chrissables]

10 minutes ago, Grouse said:

We should "do the right thing".

 

We used to have a terrific reputation. We should remember that!

 

All this talk of legal enforceability is nonsense. We should take the high ground and state clearly that we will pay all our liabilities without equivocation.

 

Yet again we see why refrerendums are a bad idea. Representative democracy is the correct way to run things. Sadly our system of whips undermines it somewhat.

 

Whenever I hear the brexiteer on the street voice an opinion, I just cringe with embarrassment! 

All this talk of legal enforceability is nonsense. We should take the high ground and state clearly that we will pay all our liabilities without equivocation.

 

I can't agree with that, especially as they to date have not quantified the amount.

 

You are right, regarding our reputation and we should do what we can to be fair, as should the EU

 

Referendums seem to work well for Switzerland. 

[sawadee1947]

1 hour ago, chrissables said:

Only those who went to polls decided? Well bugger me, thought that was what a referendum entailed, voting! You are making a fool of yourself with this crap you keep writing, pitiful actually.

What about those who have house in spain? They won't be thrown out anymore than the Brits will throw out anyone living in the UK legally.

Study abroad? Do you really think that will stop? They may have to apply first and complete some forms, but if they are intelligent enough to study abroad i would assume they could manage to fill a form in.

I think we should stop this silly conversation. Wait some months then you will see what you'll get. People would say you might be a bit narrow minded? Take the next beer. Be happy as long you can. We here in Thailand would not change anything in UK. So why make yourself so upset?

[chrissables]

Just now, sawadee1947 said:

I think we should stop this silly conversation. Wait some months then you will see what you'll get. People would say you might be a bit narrow minded? Take the next beer. Be happy as long you can. We here in Thailand would not change anything in UK. So why make yourself so upset?

I am not upset at all. :) 

 

Narrow minded? I am talking issues of what are law more than my opinion. 

 

Beer O'clock comes later.

[sawadee1947]

10 minutes ago, chrissables said:

I am not upset at all. :) 

 

Narrow minded? I am talking issues of what are law more than my opinion. 

 

Beer O'clock comes later.

what are law more than my opinion. 

Look here: you and I we are living in Thailand. We will definitely not change anything concerning those negotiations between UK and EU. And all what is written in this thread comes out of the blue. There are hopes from both sides that there will be a good end for both parties. In this thread I could feel soooo many animosities which I was hoping they would be buried for all times. We are a community of democratic and free countries. And what I also feel is a rising nationalism. Borders and separation is not a solution. There is a fact that there will come more refugees or migrants from many countries. They are on the way already. And it is our duty to prevent them coming to us, means to give them a vision of future in their countries. It's our duty to develop them in the way they want it. Not according our standards. And not again exploiting. In this we should stand together and whatever will happen with your isolation or not it's your obligation to support every state leaders to fight poverty in these countries. Not fighting each other but supporting and help actively.

so, and now please enjoy your beer.