Shoeless Joe Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 "Thai Visa Team" 1) From the sidebar - "Baht Depreciation Expected" 2) From the lower bar - "Baht expected to strengthen to 21 month high" So I suppose that, as the baht hasn't moved much over the last 6 months it's an indicator that both stories are right (and wrong!) Regards Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robblok Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonray Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, robblok said: The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. Markets respond to certainty and show confidence with strength and skepticism with weakness. Guess which one the markets are showing ? even with interest rates on the rise, Trump's follies are scaring the hell out of markets. Edited July 28, 2017 by tonray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rotweiler Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 There is a school of thought who believe the Baht is being kept artificially high until the foreign debts are paid off - especially the military ones. When that is done, the baht will be allowed to fall again to help make Thai businesses export competitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkles Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 There was an article in the main Bangkok media some weeks ago that exports were up and the future for exporters was looking very healthy. Not wishing to be cynical but its very hard to believe these articles.,also the nonsense put out by TAT that tourists are flocking in greater numbers to Thailand giving the countries economy a huge boost All the indicators are with such a strong baht that it would be the opposite or at best status quo. For example what is happening with the rice exports,Thailand's prime product, we are not hearing if stockpiles are cleared or volume of current expected sales. The truth and reality to me are total strangers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonwilly Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Three restaurant owners have told me that business is down. That's both farangs and Thai. john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill97 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Joe :Baht against what currency? They are not all the same and do not all move the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonzo the Face Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 3 are mentioned in above post # 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrules Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 4 hours ago, jonwilly said: Three restaurant owners have told me that business is down. That's both farangs and Thai. john A lot more foreigners are using the street food vendors around here (I'm in Hua Hin), I'm not talking about the vendors in the main tourist areas in town either, these are regular local vendors where Thai people buy their food from. I know one woman who has one of these little stalls, she sells some kind of meaty BBQ stick each day until she runs out of them. 18 Months ago during the high season on 2016 - pretty much 0 foreign customers 6 Months ago during this years high season - lots of foreign customers, every day and they come back for more. There has been a big and noticeable change over the last couple of years and I believe a lot of it is due to the change in the Baht from Jan 2016 until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill97 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 3 are mentioned in above post # 2 This seems to rapidly be developing into another of those threads where nobody is on topic because there was no clear topic in the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhonKaenKowboy Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 8 hours ago, tonray said: Markets respond to certainty and show confidence with strength and skepticism with weakness. Guess which one the markets are showing ? even with interest rates on the rise, Trump's follies are scaring the hell out of markets. Really? 10% YTD return on the S&P 500. Could you tell us one sector you would short over the next 90-180 days amidst all these scary times? THB is up 7% this year vs. the Dollar...just another blown oportunity by the liar letter crowd. They didn't bring it over at 36, and wouldn't at 56. Just like the life long renters...prices dropped 75% and they are still renting. The positives from small currency fluctuations outweigh the negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shoeless Joe Posted July 28, 2017 Author Share Posted July 28, 2017 7 hours ago, Bill97 said: Joe : Baht against what currency? They are not all the same and do not all move the same way. Bill97 - Re for both of your comments (and as you clearly misunderstood what I was getting at). I wasn't highlighting the baht appreciating or depreciating against any currency. The topic was / is merely that there are 2 stories on the same subject but with contrasting headlines which can be seen on the sidebar and lower bar of the same TV page. So, which one to believe? Regards, Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhonKaenKowboy Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 One will be a lot more recent than the other. Would probably have two opposite threads about gas prices, too, but since we have price controls to protect us...they stay high all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill97 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Bill97 - Re for both of your comments (and as you clearly misunderstood what I was getting at). I wasn't highlighting the baht appreciating or depreciating against any currency. The topic was / is merely that there are 2 stories on the same subject but with contrasting headlines which can be seen on the sidebar and lower bar of the same TV page. So, which one to believe? Regards, Joe I still do not get what you are suggesting and since almost all the replies are about currency valuations or economic data, Does anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruffian Dick Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Articles that hype economical fears are always good click-bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orang37 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 (edited) 7 hours ago, Bill97 said: This seems to rapidly be developing into another of those threads where nobody is on topic because there was no clear topic in the OP. I'll take a stab at guessing the real topic: ... "why is the Baht relatively stronger now against the US$ ?" To put that in perspective, I think you have to ask the question: ... "is the US$ weaker against a wide range of other world-economy significant currencies?" Take a look at OANDA's currency heat-map (check the Baht entry, and China, and other Asian currencies) [1] : heat map link The large number of currencies showing increased relative strength over the US$ (red) suggests to me the Baht's strength is not a significant determinant of the US$ strength ... at this moment. Quote no clear topic in the OP I wonder if in the context of this forum "clear topic" is an oxymoron :)\ [1] Your choice of which countries you compare to is, of course, significant. ~o:37; Edited July 28, 2017 by orang37 fix format error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shoeless Joe Posted July 29, 2017 Author Share Posted July 29, 2017 Jeez, was my post that difficult to understand? I was merely pointing out that there were 2 TV stories with diametrically opposing views (which are still there) and asking the question, which one was right?: 1) That the baht is strengthening 2) That the baht is weakening With the exception of the response from KonKhaenCowboy (thank you, I hadn't thought of different timescales...duh!) most of the other answers are way too over-complicated. Regards, Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill97 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Jeez, was my post that difficult to understand? ....which one was right?: 1) That the baht is strengthening 2) That the baht is weakening They are both wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uptheos Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 I believe that in the next year the baht will depreciated but not too much. As major rice and tourist competitors get stronger, Thailand will probably need to keep the currency a bit weaker. Having said that my granddaughter and her friend have just returned from 6 months in Thailand and they thought it was dirt cheap, so its doesn't seem to be hurting tourism, but exports might suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnmcc6 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 On 7/28/2017 at 8:58 AM, robblok said: The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. Trump wanted the dollar to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uptheos Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, johnmcc6 said: Trump wanted the dollar to fall. Jobs Jobs Jobs, Exports Exports Exports, Go Donald go you know it makes sense. Trump is fixated with China's currency manipulation and probably aware of other countries too, including Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suradit69 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 On 7/28/2017 at 9:05 AM, tonray said: even with interest rates on the rise, Trump's follies are scaring the hell out of markets. Interest rates haven't moved up much in the US despite the Fed's actions and the two-year/10-year rate spread is less than 100 basis points, but I agree that Trump and the dysfunctional Congress are what makes the baht, Euro and pound appear to be strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron19 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Flame post removed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony125 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 On 7/28/2017 at 8:58 AM, robblok said: The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. Google Dow (stock market US) price as of Nov 1, 2016 It was a little over 18,000 points 3 weeks before the election. After Trump was elected it has risen to almost 22,000 points as of July 28, 2017 . That's a rise of almost 4,000 points in a little over 6 months and is higher now than it has ever been. Guess Trump was the right choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suradit69 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 2 hours ago, uptheos said: Trump is fixated with China's currency manipulation and probably aware of other countries too, including Thailand. You can't seriously think Trump has any intended or tactical influence on the exchange rates or that he has a clue what's happening in Thailand. The recent more dramatic drops in the dollar index followed his new milestones of failure to get any of his legislative agenda to move forward despite holding a majority in Congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robblok Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Tony125 said: Google Dow (stock market US) price as of Nov 1, 2016 It was a little over 18,000 points 3 weeks before the election. After Trump was elected it has risen to almost 22,000 points as of July 28, 2017 . That's a rise of almost 4,000 points in a little over 6 months and is higher now than it has ever been. Guess Trump was the right choice. That depends who you are.. if you had money in the stock market.. sure.. if your an expat living here on U$ savings not in the stock-market.. not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suradit69 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 2 hours ago, johnmcc6 said: Trump wanted the dollar to fall. And he wanted to repeal ObamaCare, ban all Muslims, reduce the corporate tax rates, build a wall on the Mexican border ... What's happening has very little to do with what he wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammieuk1 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 The sidebar is resting on the lower bar which is currently applying great pressure to my throat that is connected to my hands that are holding brexit pounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1FinickyOne Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 8 hours ago, Shoeless Joe said: Jeez, was my post that difficult to understand? I was merely pointing out that there were 2 TV stories with diametrically opposing views (which are still there) and asking the question, which one was right?: 1) That the baht is strengthening 2) That the baht is weakening With the exception of the response from KonKhaenCowboy (thank you, I hadn't thought of different timescales...duh!) most of the other answers are way too over-complicated. Regards, Joe Hi Shoeless Joe from kokomo To answer your question... if you are accustomed to reading financial guidance papers and such, on any given day you will find many experts who think the market is going up and many who think it is going down - some see a huge increase and others a drastic crash... and you can never really be sure of their motivation. Truth is nobody can be 100% sure. The interesting concept behind these markets, be it stocks or currency etc is that at any given moment, the price represents a point where buyer meets seller and that determines the value. If more money is wanting to either buy or sell, then the market will tip in that direction. It is not in the least unusual that so called experts will disagree on the future direction. hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
observer90210 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Ask the financial forecasts from 2 different financial gurus and you will have 3 different predictions!! Welcome to the russian roulette world of finance predictions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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