Thailand steadily slipping behind its neighbours

[Srikcir]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The country’s GDP is forecast to grow 3-3.5 per cent this year

Frighteningly bad news.

In January 2017 DPM Somkid projected a GDP growth rate over 4% versus the World Bank at 3.2% and now Kasikorn Research Center at 3.3%.

Compared to prior years, GDP growth rate for 2016 was 3.2%, for 2015 was 2.9% and for 2014 was 0.7% (thanks to Suthep shutdown of government and coup).

Thailand is on the verge of moving backwards. The term "growth" might need to be replaced by "contraction."

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, Lemonltr said:

They can't directly devalue it. It's a floating currency.

Can indirectly devalue the baht. The Bank of Thailand can cut interest rates that will undermine the value of the baht. Throughout 2016 it refused to do so and no plans currently to cut rates. Seems to be more of an ego decision than economic practicality.

[Srikcir]

6 hours ago, Just1Voice said:

With a GDP of only 3.5 for the past 3 years

Actual:

2016 - 3.2%

2015 - 2.9%

2014 - 0.7%

[Lemonltr]

19 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Can indirectly devalue the baht. The Bank of Thailand can cut interest rates that will undermine the value of the baht. Throughout 2016 it refused to do so and no plans currently to cut rates. Seems to be more of an ego decision than economic practicality.

Yes. I specifically said 'directly' as I was answering a question on devaluation not ' influencing the level'.

[Veeke]

Other countries overtaking Thailand in absolute figures of GDP is a problem?

More important maybe keeping people in villages and workers- who produce the wealth- happier

[Jonnapat]

Thai kids are taught at school that they are the kings of SE Asia and this complacency and stronger than necessary sense of extreme nationalism follows them into adult life. Some teaching a about the real world wouldn't go amiss. 

I agree with other members in that if things don't change drastically this country in in for a rude awakening in the not too distant future. 

[nausea]

5 hours ago, inThailand said:

Yup!  They will blame and take it out on expats. Life here is not going to get easier.

Well, if the baht collapses life will get a damn sight easier for me.

 

3 hours ago, Rancid said:

the current meme of propping up the wealthys inefficient monopolistic businesses

Interesting interpretation.

[maxpower]

10 minutes ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

Just where are the resident Shinawatra obsessives and junta apologists? 

 

Never see them when there's a thread about the economy, human rights etc. but they are all over any thread involving Yingluck or the red shirts like flies round excrement. 

 

Can't defend the indefensible I guess.

They are deep in Googleland frantically seeking cut and paste munitions.

[Ricardo]

2 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Actual:

2016 - 3.2%

2015 - 2.9%

2014 - 0.7%

  Thanks for injecting some facts !

 

Correct, with this year & next year forecast to be in the 3-4% range.

 

This is relatively-poor for South-East Asia, although I suppose the government might argue that places like Burma or Cambodia are growing from a relatively-lower starting-point, Thailand having done well sooner & become a developed-country as a result.  But then, they would say that !

 

Unfortunately supply-led growth (aka Thaksinomics) won't provide an easy fix this time, as global growth is also slower than back in the Good Old Days, and at some point the high-level of household-debt here will IMO cause serious pain. Just how many motorbikes & colour-TVs & mobile-phones will the masses buy, and borrow to buy, (leaving aside my wife !) they don't feel well-off anymore !

 

On the other hand, the UK will grow at 1.7% this year, and the USA at 2.3% (the latter according to the Economist World-in-2017), so Thailand is doing better than them, at least.  But it underlines the concerns, already mentioned by previous posters, about GDP-growth elsewhere, and the possibility of a wider correction.  China remains relatively-subdued, not that I'd necessarily rely heavily on the accuracy of their economic-statistics, but can Thailand hope to do well when China is growing less-quickly ?

 

The strong Baht continues to be a concern, OK there is a long-running trade-surplus supporting it, but it hurts exporters and sending-home cheap-labour to the surrounding countries doesn't help them.  I'm not sure why the Baht is so strong, but cutting interest-rates further (one classic response) might exacerbate the household-debt problem ?

 

I'm glad it's not my problem, that's for sure !  It would be good to see Thailand's better brains working on the problems.  But it could all be worse  ...  like the West !

 

 

Edited August 11, 2017 by Ricardo

[candide]

6 hours ago, fantom said:

List of Thai billionaires by net worth
 is most illuminating. On a well known pedia site.

And of course some people want to make us believe that only Thaksin is able to buy power in Thailand.....

The Thai people is ransomned by people with connections or privileges. And laws protecting their rents will never be allowed to change.

[Tilacme]

Struggling country wasting excessive cash on foreign military hardware.

[impulse]

1 hour ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

Just where are the resident Shinawatra obsessives and junta apologists? 

 

Never see them when there's a thread about the economy, human rights etc. but they are all over any thread involving Yingluck or the red shirts like flies round excrement. 

 

Can't defend the indefensible I guess.

 

Every successful Asian economy started down that road with a Thaksin-esque strongman who kept order at the trough so there was enough left over to actually grow the economy.  Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and (one could argue) even China.

 

Whether Thaksin was that guy, or Prayut -or the guy has even been born yet- is subject to debate.  But until someone puts limits on the percentage siphoned off by the parasites in positions of power, elected or behind the scenes, there will never be enough reinvested to actually grow Thailand's economy.  Since 2006, it's been a free for all with everyone taking all they can get away with.

 

Edited August 11, 2017 by impulse

[Baerboxer]

"In fact, Thailand has been growing at a rate lower than the 4.8-per-cent annual average among all Asean economies over the past decade, largely due to structural and income inequality issues, as well as an unfavourable political climate."

 

Oh dear that won't sit well with some posters. They only want to believe it's the Junta's fault. Everything was perfect before 

[Baerboxer]

Just now, Father Fintan Stack said:

Lucky we have Thaksin's economic advisor, appointed by the junta, to make those important decisions. 

 

Did he advise on the Rice Scheme?

 

Weren't you previously lauding how glorious everything was under the various Thaksin regimes that have governed for most of this century?

[Baerboxer]

4 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Frighteningly bad news.

In January 2017 DPM Somkid projected a GDP growth rate over 4% versus the World Bank at 3.2% and now Kasikorn Research Center at 3.3%.

Compared to prior years, GDP growth rate for 2016 was 3.2%, for 2015 was 2.9% and for 2014 was 0.7% (thanks to Suthep shutdown of government and coup).

Thailand is on the verge of moving backwards. The term "growth" might need to be replaced by "contraction."

 

Did you miss the part in the OP that referred to these low rates for 10 years? This isn't just a Junta problem.

[Baerboxer]

2 hours ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

Just where are the resident Shinawatra obsessives and junta apologists? 

 

Never see them when there's a thread about the economy, human rights etc. but they are all over any thread involving Yingluck or the red shirts like flies round excrement. 

 

Can't defend the indefensible I guess.

 

No you can't defend the indefensible but some do keep trying to insist the Shins are innocent, of everything ever.

 

Regarding the economy - the OP suggests things have been poor for 10 years. Now just who has been in power for a lot of those years? The Junta haven't done much - too busy chasing Shins and buying nice new military hardware; PTP didn't do much - too busy emptying the trough, and focusing all their energies on getting Thaksin back whitewashed and free and consolidating their grip on power; Democrats didn't do anything albeit in a short time in office; previous Thaksin government's did little but look after themselves.

 

Human rights -  poor, but were never much better.

 

Education - nothing, not from any government, in the way of meaningful reforms. PTP shuffled ministers around with several changes in less than 3 years. Never here much on education form the junta. Yet all agree it's a key area. Oh wait, Yingluck did promise every child would receive an iPad, just like hers - didn't work out so well!

 

The reality is the Shins and their regimes are no better and just as self serving as all the others. None of them are interested in real reforms.

 

But some posters just keep pretending otherwise.

[Baerboxer]

Just now, Father Fintan Stack said:

There was a coup in 2006 or did that conveniently slip your mind?

 

So what has the performance been of the 3 Thaksin owned governments this century?

 

On economics, human rights, educational reform etc?

[Tilacme]

5 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

No you can't defend the indefensible but some do keep trying to insist the Shins are innocent, of everything ever.

 

Regarding the economy - the OP suggests things have been poor for 10 years. Now just who has been in power for a lot of those years? The Junta haven't done much - too busy chasing Shins and buying nice new military hardware; PTP didn't do much - too busy emptying the trough, and focusing all their energies on getting Thaksin back whitewashed and free and consolidating their grip on power; Democrats didn't do anything albeit in a short time in office; previous Thaksin government's did little but look after themselves.

 

Human rights -  poor, but were never much better.

 

Education - nothing, not from any government, in the way of meaningful reforms. PTP shuffled ministers around with several changes in less than 3 years. Never here much on education form the junta. Yet all agree it's a key area. Oh wait, Yingluck did promise every child would receive an iPad, just like hers - didn't work out so well!

 

The reality is the Shins and their regimes are no better and just as self serving as all the others. None of them are interested in real reforms.

 

But some posters just keep pretending otherwise.

Why don't you stop running down Thailand and cultivate a more positive outlook.

 

 

 

[zzaa09]

23 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Did he advise on the Rice Scheme?

 

Weren't you previously lauding how glorious everything was under the various Thaksin regimes that have governed for most of this century?

As opposed to lauding the wonderfully glorious regimes that ruled over Thailand of the last century?

[Baerboxer]

2 minutes ago, Tilacme said:

Why don't you stop running down Thailand and cultivate a more positive outlook.

 

 

 

 

What pretend everything is wonderful and rosy? Close your eyes and bury your head in the sand. Or you could read and educate yourself a bit.

 

Reality isn't running down. Read how many Thais comment on the lack of progress in such areas. 

Edited August 11, 2017 by Baerboxer

[Eric Loh]

14 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Did you miss the part in the OP that referred to these low rates for 10 years? This isn't just a Junta problem.

2 coups in 10 years and both times the GDP plunged. Markets don't like instability and they don't like uncertainty. It is a junta problem. When is election BB? 

[Baerboxer]

2 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

As opposed to lauding the wonderfully glorious regimes that ruled over Thailand of the last century?

 

Why, who has done that? Can you reference it?

[Tilacme]

1 minute ago, Baerboxer said:

 

What pretend everything is wonderful and rosy? Close your eyes and bury your head in the sand. Or you could read and educate yourself a bit.

Or you could buy a ticket and go back to whence you came.

 

In the mean time, I will stay here and respect the country which provides me shelter.

[zzaa09]

1 minute ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Why, who has done that? Can you reference it?

....and you were just commenting towards understanding real contemporary Thai history?

Though, don't seem to comprehend whatsoever as it applies, and relates, to current times.

 

Some remain in a slumbered state.

[Baerboxer]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

2 coups in 10 years and both times the GDP plunged. Markets don't like instability and they don't like uncertainty. It is a junta problem. When is election BB? 

 

No, it's not. Read the article. The GDP rate of growth  was below the rate of their neighbors regardless of the coups. That meant even without the coups they were being caught up because successive governments weren't having the effects. The coups made the problem worse with their initial impacts.

 

Simply returning to a democratically elected government, regardless of who runs that government, won't automatically change that. Only the right policies effectively implemented will. Whenever there is another election it would be nice to see some real manifestos outlining some real change. Not just we want Thaksin whitewashed and back home or we want new submarines, tanks and air craft.

 

 

[Baerboxer]

4 minutes ago, Tilacme said:

Or you could buy a ticket and go back to whence you came.

 

In the mean time, I will stay here and respect the country which provides me shelter.

 

I respect Thailand and Thai people. That doesn't mean I have to be a mindless sheep with no opinion about anything. That's your choice but don't try and tell others to follow your example.

 

Provides you shelter - you a refugee then?

[Baerboxer]

6 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

....and you were just commenting towards understanding real contemporary Thai history?

Though, don't seem to comprehend whatsoever as it applies, and relates, to current times.

 

Some remain in a slumbered state.

 

What are you on about? Seriously, you waffle on about history over 100 years, and claim someone is lauding the various governments over that period???

 

If you have a point then make it. Or continue with your obtuse vagueness if it so pleases. 

[JAG]

Why don't you stop running down Thailand and cultivate a more positive outlook.
 
 
 

Oh I think it is a balanced post - a chip on both shoulders...

[maewang99]

let the Baht rise higher. then everyone is wealthier and the cost of living goes down across the board. energy is a bigger part of equations than it is given credit for..... and more consumption is how China is progressing and a stronger Baht would support that.

and the writer still avoids pointing a finger at the Big Social Contract..... the one even the current government did not even try to break. you can't manage schools from Bangkok no matter how many local organizations you set up.. if they are all beholden to Bangkok. you're losing seriously on a horrific 'education' system.. absolutely horrific. great for training medical doctors and spelling bees contestants that can memorize stuff.... but a big zero on even trying to stay current in all sorts of technology advances. a backwater. why? no sign of literacy.. even in those attending or teaching at school.... let alone in the general population. without that.. how can you connect? watching videos and hiring folks who for some reason decide to stay in Thailand for a little while.... yet you have to issue your own "teachers licenses" for them... because they ain't got real credentials. that's a really sad thing.



 

Edited August 11, 2017 by maewang99

[Eric Loh]

14 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

No, it's not. Read the article. The GDP rate of growth  was below the rate of their neighbors regardless of the coups. That meant even without the coups they were being caught up because successive governments weren't having the effects. The coups made the problem worse with their initial impacts.

 

Simply returning to a democratically elected government, regardless of who runs that government, won't automatically change that. Only the right policies effectively implemented will. Whenever there is another election it would be nice to see some real manifestos outlining some real change. Not just we want Thaksin whitewashed and back home or we want new submarines, tanks and air craft.

 

 

That's what the article said when they highlighted unfavourable political climate as reason for the average 4% GDP growth. During elected governments, we were growing around 5%+ on the average. In Thaksin tenure, we even have a 7.2% GDP growth. Now we are happy to have 3.5% growth. Look around the region where growth have been consistent and trending better. Why? Simply because there are no coups and there are political stability which is the key condition that investors look for. Indonesia and Philippines are perfect examples of what they can achieved when they have political stability. If Thailand is to move out of the middle income trap and become a developed country, it will need at least a 5-6% GDP growth for next 10 years. Coups are the spoilers and is a key problem for Thailand economic well being.