Army Denies Coup Rumours

[Tony Clifton]

GUYS !!!!

is it me... or are you also having trouble accesing www.omgIamSOparranoid.com ?????

somthings got to wrong here !!!!!!!!!! I AM SCARED !!!!!!!!!!

gosch.... gimme a break

Many thanks for your informative and helpful reply, off-the-wall. The point was not one of paranoia, but rather to enquire whether others inside Thailand were having difficulties accessing nationmultimedia for whatever reason. I routinely access them for news and to follopw up on links posted here, and it has been frustrating not being able to access the site.

Internet services have been unstable because of the recent earthquake and it was announced that it would take up to three weeks for the repairs to be completed. I have access to everything WITHIN Thailand but sometimes have to try once more when a link is dead. Download speeds are also affected.

Edited January 5, 2007 by Tony Clifton

[Johpa]

Thaksin is probably very upset that Thailand just did not fold and wither when he was forced out of office. Everything he did when he was in office was by design to make the country dependant on him thus an attempt to make himself a necessary evil. Because that did not happen a coup is now more likely.

The happenings of the last several days may just be a test to see how the government will react to situations. The statements by the government to expect more bombs says they feel a significant force is behind them. The only significant force not in power is Thaksin.

To summarize I think a coup is likely but not today. I think it may be a week or more away. It depends on the posture of the military and troop deployment. If you see the military in the street again that should be read as the government is very concerned about a real threat. Reimposing martial law in Bangkok may be necessary.

If you feel that Thaksin was behind the bombings then the questions asked need to revolve around whether it is a good business deal for Thaksin to buy off enough of the military as well as buy off other key interested parties who would then back a counter-coup.

The current leaders have in effect offered the Shinawats a deal for about 30% of their last big business deal in the form of taxes that would of course be used to pay their own pet projects. After all, there are no questions of politics involved here despite the newest constitutional assembly in the never ending soap opera of constitutional reform in a country that defines crony capitalism. The newest constitutional assmebly is just some manna to placate the urban middle class just as the rural loan programs were used as manna to placate the rural folks. The purpose of the manna is simply to distract people from the pilfering of the State by the elite.

I would rather have the coup leaders come to a compromise with Thaksin and at least have him back inside Thai borders rather then have Thaksin spend too much more time spending politcal capital in Beijing. But then again, I am all in favor of the instability if it will deter tourists and thus bring down airfares.

[Jai Dee]

NSC Chairman denies reports of counter coup

The Chairman of the National Security Council denied reports of a counter coup to stabilize the nation.

The Commander in Chief of the Army Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkrin (สนธิ บุญยรัตกลิน), in his capacity as the Chairman of the National Security Council has come out to address reports of a second coup. Gen Sonthi denied the reports as unfounded rumors.

Meanwhile Lt Gen Sujet Watanasuk (สุเจตน์ วัฒนสุข), the Region 2 Army commander, also affirmed that no military forces have been mobilized from the Suranari (สุรนารี) base in Nakornrajasrima province into Bangkok. Lt Gen Sujet believed with 100% certainty that the reports are rumors circulated by malicious parties.

Gen Sonthi has instructed the Region 2 Army commander to visit local areas to create confidence among the public and insure citizens that the situation is under control.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 January 2007

[Jai Dee]

Military has not yet deployed troops in Bangkok city area

Conditions in downtown Bangkok remain under control, while the military has not yet established a significant presence in response to recent bombings.

Bangkok Metropolitan area officials report that the situation in downtown Bangkok remains stable. Sriayyudhya (ศรีอยุธยา) and Rajadamuen (ราชดำเนิน) roads remain clear, while important locations such as the Government House, and Parliament have yet to be reinforced with additional troops. Officials said that the military has not yet deployed heavy armor and ground troops in the city area.

Officials added that reports of a second coup attempt were merely rumors and the situation remains under control.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 January 2007

[Eatdog]

Thailand, the Hub of Coup's!

Coming soon to a Thailand near you: The Coup of Hubs!!

Thailand, the hub of Pong-Pong-Pong!

Edited January 5, 2007 by Eatdog

[thaigene2]

I have no doubt in my mind that a second coup would be much different from the last one. The last thing anyone would be doing in "Coup II" is getting their photos taken next to a tank.

But again - like I always say - the newspapers and TV channels are used by those in power for disinformation as well as information. So when you see something like this that raises your eyebrows, ask yourself: "Who gains through this?"

Just like the New Year bombings...who gains? I don't think it was Thaksin. But I'm not going to speculate anymore. It's now getting dangerous, and is probably time to keep quiet again.

Forget your flags and anthems. Coups and corrupt politicians (is there a difference?) are about consolidating power and access to personal wealth - always were - and always will be.

[hammered]

Thaksin is probably very upset that Thailand just did not fold and wither when he was forced out of office. Everything he did when he was in office was by design to make the country dependant on him thus an attempt to make himself a necessary evil. Because that did not happen a coup is now more likely.

The happenings of the last several days may just be a test to see how the government will react to situations. The statements by the government to expect more bombs says they feel a significant force is behind them. The only significant force not in power is Thaksin.

To summarize I think a coup is likely but not today. I think it may be a week or more away. It depends on the posture of the military and troop deployment. If you see the military in the street again that should be read as the government is very concerned about a real threat. Reimposing martial law in Bangkok may be necessary.

If you feel that Thaksin was behind the bombings then the questions asked need to revolve around whether it is a good business deal for Thaksin to buy off enough of the military as well as buy off other key interested parties who would then back a counter-coup.

The current leaders have in effect offered the Shinawats a deal for about 30% of their last big business deal in the form of taxes that would of course be used to pay their own pet projects. After all, there are no questions of politics involved here despite the newest constitutional assembly in the never ending soap opera of constitutional reform in a country that defines crony capitalism. The newest constitutional assmebly is just some manna to placate the urban middle class just as the rural loan programs were used as manna to placate the rural folks. The purpose of the manna is simply to distract people from the pilfering of the State by the elite.

I would rather have the coup leaders come to a compromise with Thaksin and at least have him back inside Thai borders rather then have Thaksin spend too much more time spending politcal capital in Beijing. But then again, I am all in favor of the instability if it will deter tourists and thus bring down airfares.

Like you say a compromise is what is needed and will in all likelihood happen although I think it is not jsut about coup leaders and Mr. Thaksin but about old and new power as they are becoming to be known, and these groups contain a lot more of the elite figures than just the few we assume. There is a good opinion in the nation today on exactly this : http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/05...on_30023316.php

I guess the alternative will be total instability for a prolonged period.

Your comment on the offer of 30 for tax income is an interesting interpretation and you may be right. It seems that Mr. Thaksins counter offer is along the lines of OK do me and the wife and brother in law but leave the kids out of it. If there is enough stability to allow the cases to progress to completion we may find that a deal has been worked out. However, the stability depends on more than just the coup leaders and Mr. Thaksin although both could do more to insure it. There are also other powerful players who are nobody's puppets out there who have lost power, and at the end of the day that is what all this is about - power.

[LaoPo]

...Coups and corrupt politicians (is there a difference?) are about consolidating power and access to personal wealth - always were - and always will be.

Yes.

....Coups and cxxxpt army and politicians...the rest of your sentence is correct...

LP

[BigSnake]

If it is true, it really will screw the economy..........

Excuse me my friend this economy is already screwed up. STAY TUNE for the latest CHAPTER!!

[John K]

Johpa,

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing. My post is simply taking facts and applying them to constants to get an extrapolation of possible outcomes. If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

[Barney_the_Dinosaur]

Johpa,

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing. My post is simply taking facts and applying them to constants to get an extrapolation of possible outcomes. If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

<snip>

You don't know Thaksin, its all just what you've seen in the papers and then you improvise the rest.

You make it sound like you're an intelligence insider - yet most likely just another ex-US serviceman wanting an audience. Plenty of you down in Washington Square.

Edited January 5, 2007 by Jai Dee
Flame comment deleted

[bkkandrew]

Johpa,

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing. My post is simply taking facts and applying them to constants to get an extrapolation of possible outcomes. If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

Now that would be quite a development!!!

[Blake7]

If he is in China it is not to play golf.

Yes, no golf clubs open in Beijing in January!

However, it is no secret that he is very chummy with the Chinese leadership. The idea that they would intervene in a military way is an extremely foolish notion John.

Edited January 5, 2007 by Blake7

[John K]

Please read word for word, I said it would not put it past him to do that. Meaning it is not happening but Thaksin if desperate enough would suggest it. It could be as simple as asking the Chinese to provide weapons. Take a look at his track record at some of the absurd things he has done in power plays, it follows the constant.

Edited January 5, 2007 by John K

[bkkandrew]

Please read word for word, I said it would not put it past him to do that. Meaning it is not happening but Thaksin if desperate enough would suggest it. It could be as simple as asking the Chinese to provide weapons. Take a look at his track record at some of the absurd things he has done in power plays, it follows the constant.

More likely would be an attempt to get the Chinese not to recognise the Junta etc. etc. Would be a bit bizarre for the Chinese to stand up for democratically elected people over military types though..

[Barney_the_Dinosaur]

This is a serious topic, but it has been shanghai'ed by 'political insider and CIA-analyst manque' John to discuss his madcap theories of Chinese invasion.

Enough please John. This topic is for real breaking news that might affect us all, not your idle speculation and conspiracy theories.

and no we're not all going to read what you say 'word for word' . Sorry, we have better things to do than pander to this.

[Grover]

Please read word for word, I said it would not put it past him to do that. Meaning it is not happening but Thaksin if desperate enough would suggest it. It could be as simple as asking the Chinese to provide weapons. Take a look at his track record at some of the absurd things he has done in power plays, it follows the constant.

I cautiously and warily concede that it is a possibility.

Thaksin has lost face in a huge way; hero to zero. He is a proud man with a huge ego, a shameless pursuer of power, very little moral fiber, ruthless, and ultimately & most sadly little regard for the people of Thailand.

We all know what type of person he is and what he is capable of. He wields a huge financial power which can be translated into almost anything he wishes, as long as he proceeds carefully & indirectly. He lost face in a huge way & how will he react ? Taking into account his vain ego & his track record, IMO he wants payback.

IMO I think this is what the military are thinking.

Edited January 5, 2007 by Grover

[Ohms]

Typical of you people on Thai Visa everybodys a f***ing expert!!

"You make it sound like you're an intelligence insider - yet most likely just another ex-US serviceman wanting an audience"

Well done Barney at last someone with something worthwhile to say instead of all these armchair political commentators!

[Jai Dee]

Request to all members: please keep the speculation in the news forum to a minimum... or if you'd prefer to speculate, please start a new thread in the general forum.

[lukamar]

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing.

Not true John. TS is a major player in The Carlyle Group and The Carlyle Group is one of the world’s largest private equity firms, with more than $46.9 billion under management. He's in there with players like the Bushes, the bin Ladens, John Major, Liu Hong-Ru, Fidel Ramos and do you remember this guy Anand Panyarachun. If this group wanted to put Thailand's economy in the dumpster it wouldn't take long, and I'm sure that the junta knows this. Thaksin may have much more clout while outside the country than if he was inside it at the moment.

[AlexLah]

Is there a way of finding out what bizz interest the current leadership has?

Like a chamber of commerce site or something?

We could then make a map with who links to what and so on, and then try to find links between current events and come up with a conspiracy theory.

[Barney_the_Dinosaur]

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing.

TS is a major player in The Carlyle Group

Really, come on don't be coy "Major player" ? - spell it out. ...investor maybe?

(since you're obviously another member of the crypto-elite Bilderberger conspiracy theorists)

I am often at the offices of Carlyle Group in Hong Kong, and they're not nearly as sinister as you make out. Anyone can invest - .........not those on an English teachers salary mind.

[lukamar]

However, it is no secret that he is very chummy with the Chinese leadership. The idea that they would intervene in a military way is an extremely foolish notion John.

China is probably quite concerned about the situation in Thailand but not in the way people are thinking here. Under the Thaksin government there had been many very successful agreements between the two countries culminating in a FTA where 90% of the products traded are fruits and vegetables with a huge trading value. The new government, the CNS and the Palace are all pushing self sufficiency and the Chinese may well feel a bit betrayed. Maybe having Thaksin close at hand is a way for them to put pressure on the CNS etc

[John K]

Is there a way of finding out what bizz interest the current leadership has?

Like a chamber of commerce site or something?

We could then make a map with who links to what and so on, and then try to find links between current events and come up with a conspiracy theory.

Well I think the business relationships the Thais have with each other is very hidden as much falls under the category of tea money. Good thought Alex, worth a look anyway.

[hammered]

However, it is no secret that he is very chummy with the Chinese leadership. The idea that they would intervene in a military way is an extremely foolish notion John.

China is probably quite concerned about the situation in Thailand but not in the way people are thinking here. Under the Thaksin government there had been many very successful agreements between the two countries culminating in a FTA where 90% of the products traded are fruits and vegetables with a huge trading value. The new government, the CNS and the Palace are all pushing self sufficiency and the Chinese may well feel a bit betrayed. Maybe having Thaksin close at hand is a way for them to put pressure on the CNS etc

Unlike Western countries China has a policy of non-intervention in the internal affairs (unless anyone starts going on about Taiwan) of countries and this pretty much insures they get on with whoever is in power in any country. They have signed deals with many countries that have seen political changes and turbulance far beyond what is happening here. I seriously doubt that China will get involved in a power dispute among the Thai elite. They also have bigger issues on the world stage.

As a more genearla comment on this thread: This is seriously getting not only off topic but also into tin foil land in certain places relating to CIA and China.

Edited January 5, 2007 by hammered

[lukamar]

Really, come on don't be coy "Major player" ? - spell it out. ...investor maybe?

I am often at the offices of Carlyle Group in Hong Kong, and they're not nearly as sinister as you make out. Anyone can invest - .........not those on an English teachers salary mind.

I'll spell it out for you... Thaksin resigned from the board of directors of Carlyle Group in 2001 when he became PM of Thailand. Most people would class that as a "major player" and I'm sure he's also an investor. Anyone can invest but anyone can not become a director, now if you are both an investor and on the BOD then I'll be glad to hear your side of it..

Edited January 5, 2007 by lukamar

[Blake7]

Really, come on don't be coy "Major player" ? - spell it out. ...investor maybe?

I am often at the offices of Carlyle Group in Hong Kong, and they're not nearly as sinister as you make out. Anyone can invest - .........not those on an English teachers salary mind.

I'll spell it out for you... Thaksin resigned from the board of directors of Carlyle Group in 2001 when he became PM of Thailand. Most people would class that as a "major player" and I'm sure he's also an investor. Anyone can invest but anyone can not become a director, now if you are both an investor and on the BOD then I'll be glad to hear your side of it..

Well since John Major is also in Carlyle then perhaps "major player" menas he plays with John Major?

Really though, the Carlyle Group employs many ex-state leaders and I would not be surprised if Taksin goes back there.

[AlexLah]

BANGKOK - Former Thai foreign minister Prasong Soonsiri was often asked over the past year \

why he didn't go into full retirement and give up his behind-the-scenes political activities.

In response, the former head of the National Security Council and US Central Intelligence Agency-trained old military intelligence (yes trained by the CIA)

Source: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HL22Ae01.html

http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=56144 (telecom)

http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=55383

http://english.people.com.cn/200610/24/eng...024_314732.html

http://www.asiamediaforum.org/node/564

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=35117

Why are there not full names here:http://www.thaiechamber.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.page.Page_Eng_Contact_Us

Please all do some more research into this whole coup thing, we might be able to connect some dots.

[Jai Dee]

Coup rumours could be linked to Dec 31 bomb attacks

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said the country should be on alert as more chaos is expected within one or two months.

Surayud was speaking at a press conference after meeting with top Council of National Security members, including Gen Sonthi Bunyaratglin, Gen Winai Phattiyakul and Boonrawd Somtas at the Government House for about an hour.

"The situation could not be trusted for now. Within one or two months there could possibly be more chaos. The public should be on alert," he said without further elaboration.

Moreover he quoted Gen Sonthi as saying that the CNS will inform the public beforehand about its mobilisation and rotations of troopers so that the public would not be misinformed or panic.

More dissemination of the army activities will help prevent ill-wished people from distorting the information and disseminating rumours, Surayud said.

"Gen Sonthi promises that the public would be informed of the mobilisation and rotation of troopers so that they would not get panic or believe rumours from ill-intention people," he said.

Rumours swept the capital and the country on Thursday night after many people saw army military trucks loaded with troopers admist unconfirmed reports that some powerful and influential groups of people tried to stage coup.

The rumours forced people to go home early. Many offices told their employees to leave the office and directly go home.

The panic and rumours came as series of fatal bombings hit the capital in the New Year's Eve, killing three and injuring some 40 others.

Surayud said the rumours could be linked to the bomb attacks on December 31, 2006.

Source: The Nation - 5 January 2007

[Crushdepth]

Typical of you people on Thai Visa everybodys a f***ing expert!!

"You make it sound like you're an intelligence insider - yet most likely just another ex-US serviceman wanting an audience"

Well done Barney at last someone with something worthwhile to say instead of all these armchair political commentators! sleepy.gif

Armchair political commentators are the lifeblood of this forum :-)