Will The Euro / Usd And Gbp Keep Falling?

[Boater]

just seen the dollar is 29, GBP 47 and euro 39 to the THB

will it contunie to drop, will we see 25 USD to the THB and 40 GBP to the THB?

if it carries on like this people will not be able to afford to come here

[gotlost]

Bangkok Bank present. 30.74 USD 47.26 GBP 39.36 EUR down down down.

[taninthai]

I have been waiting months to change 8000 GBP to bht wish id done it 2 weeks ago when GBP hit 52 money low now changing up 200 gbp every time dont think we will see 52 again this year...........

[Eff1n2ret]

60 by year end thats a certainty.

There was a certain amount of optimism about a month ago as typified by the above, but it seems to have petered out.

[QED]

Plenty of 'experts' on this topic, don't really think another is required

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/386694-will-the-pound-go-higher/

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/394807-thai-baht-may-hit-13-year-high-on-fund-inflows/

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/393893-the-euro/

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/391725-for-the-baht-the-only-way-is-up/

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/391744-dollar-free-fall/

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/391523-what-is-going-on/

That was just the first few from my search, but I think it proves the point

[taninthai]

Plenty of 'experts' on this topic, don't really think another is required

http://www.thaivisa....ound-go-higher/

http://www.thaivisa....n-fund-inflows/

http://www.thaivisa....93893-the-euro/

http://www.thaivisa....only-way-is-up/

http://www.thaivisa....llar-free-fall/

http://www.thaivisa....at-is-going-on/

That was just the first few from my search, but I think it proves the point

i hate it when people do this what are you saying its all been talked about before we are not allowed to discuss it again......

[QED]

Plenty of 'experts' on this topic, don't really think another is required

http://www.thaivisa....ound-go-higher/

http://www.thaivisa....n-fund-inflows/

http://www.thaivisa....93893-the-euro/

http://www.thaivisa....only-way-is-up/

http://www.thaivisa....llar-free-fall/

http://www.thaivisa....at-is-going-on/

That was just the first few from my search, but I think it proves the point

i hate it when people do this what are you saying its all been talked about before we are not allowed to discuss it again......

No not at all, just that these are all ongoing threads, and they all say the same thing. It seems a bit pointless therefore to start a new thread so everyone can say the same thing, again, IMHO.

[Lancelot]

Will USD, Sterling and the Euro continue to fall? Beats me.

Just remember that rising currencies are not always so great for the newly affluent countries. Look at Japan-their economy has been going nowhere, even suffering from deflation for around 15 years. Same for their stock market, the Nikkei...

[ToffeEFCpower]

Just bring more money..........problem solved

[el jefe]

Will USD, Sterling and the Euro continue to fall? Beats me.

Just remember that rising currencies are not always so great for the newly affluent countries. Look at Japan-their economy has been going nowhere, even suffering from deflation for around 15 years. Same for their stock market, the Nikkei...

I have no idea what analogy you're trying to make. Japan is "newly affluent"? Just like Thailand?

Currencies will fluctuate but, as has been posted in all the previous threads, the simplistic answer is that the dollar/euro/gbp will continue to decline as long as they run huge budget deficits, as opposed to most Asian countries.

[Pib]

Will USD, Sterling and the Euro continue to fall? Beats me.

Just remember that rising currencies are not always so great for the newly affluent countries. Look at Japan-their economy has been going nowhere, even suffering from deflation for around 15 years. Same for their stock market, the Nikkei...

I have no idea what analogy you're trying to make. Japan is "newly affluent"? Just like Thailand?

Currencies will fluctuate but, as has been posted in all the previous threads, the simplistic answer is that the dollar/euro/gbp will continue to decline as long as they run huge budget deficits, as opposed to most Asian countries.

Usually true, but it depends on who buys the bonds that fund the deficits. Japan has a deficit percentage-wise to their GDP that makes the deficits in the US/GB/Eurozone look good. But the big difference is most of the Japanese deficit is funded from bonds "bought/held by Japanese" where most other deficit ridden countries have to sell most of their bonds to other countries. The Japanese yen has been appreciating to include against the baht. And when those other countries become concerned about the bonds/the economies of the bond issuing countries they can start dumping the bonds which usually drives done the currency of the bond issuing country like the US/GB/some Eurozone countries.

[Richard7]

Surely it's extremely hard to guess.... depends on lots of things

Thailand wants tourism so I guess it's in there interests to make it affordable - otherwise all the farangs will go home saying 'forget thailand, the good old days are gone'.

[taninthai]

Surely it's extremely hard to guess.... depends on lots of things

Thailand wants tourism so I guess it's in there interests to make it affordable - otherwise all the farangs will go home saying 'forget thailand, the good old days are gone'.

thailand wants tourism correct but over the last few years they are aiming at the high class fivestar brigade so i doubt it is in their interests to make it affordable ........

[ESB7]

60 by year end thats a certainty.

There was a certain amount of optimism about a month ago as typified by the above, but it seems to have petered out.

Still stand by that, in fact Sterling has actually strengthened agains the $ and Euro the past few months. Sterling lost 30% within a few months, just remember it can gain the same amount just as quickly.

[Pib]

60 by year end thats a certainty.

There was a certain amount of optimism about a month ago as typified by the above, but it seems to have petered out.

Still stand by that, in fact Sterling has actually strengthened agains the $ and Euro the past few months. Sterling lost 30% within a few months, just remember it can gain the same amount just as quickly.

Seems like the only thing that happens quickly with western currencies and stocks is they go down fast and then recover slowly....and the recoverly period can be l.....o.......n.......g. Additionally, the recovery period for the currency to previous values may be decades down-the-road to never in today's world due to western deficits and high GDP growth in third world nations which help drive appreciation of many third world/emerging market nation currencies.

[neil324]

Surely it's extremely hard to guess.... depends on lots of things

Thailand wants tourism so I guess it's in there interests to make it affordable - otherwise all the farangs will go home saying 'forget thailand, the good old days are gone'.

thailand wants tourism correct but over the last few years they are aiming at the high class fivestar brigade so i doubt it is in their interests to make it affordable ........

Really where's that then, i read they was going to continue targeting Iran, lots of 5 star money there is'nt there.

Thailand 2 biggest tourist market are......???? drum roll.....Backpackers & sex tourist, you can't polish a turd. Thailand is what it is. A consequence of a strong currency will be a drop in tourists. Nothing anyone can do about it. Just the same as people on here moaning their currency is worth jack <deleted>.

[cardholder]

Nothing anyone can do about it. Just the same as people on here moaning their currency is worth jack <deleted>.

My currency is (relatively) worth Jack <deleted>.

Fortunately, if GBP/THB goes to 30 I can still afford to be here.

However, the issue is that I won't - other places will become more appealing and represent better value for money.

I still don't get where the strong Baht is a great help to Thailand The main export (rice) is traded in Dollars.

[neil324]

Nothing anyone can do about it. Just the same as people on here moaning their currency is worth jack <deleted>.

My currency is (relatively) worth Jack <deleted>.

Fortunately, if GBP/THB goes to 30 I can still afford to be here.

However, the issue is that I won't - other places will become more appealing and represent better value for money.

I still don't get where the strong Baht is a great help to Thailand The main export (rice) is traded in Dollars.

Of course your correct who wants to pay inflated prices people will stay away, they already are. Its not the fact its a great help its just a by product of their success. Food will always be sold regardless of price its called an over populated planet.

[Naam]

Surely it's extremely hard to guess.... depends on lots of things

Thailand wants tourism so I guess it's in there interests to make it affordable - otherwise all the farangs will go home saying 'forget thailand, the good old days are gone'.

i wonder why PM Abhisit is hesitating! a phone call would solve the problem. all what he has to do is order Ms Tarisa Watanagase or (from 1. oct onwards) her successor Prasarn Trairatvorakul at the Bank of Thailand to flip the THB-exchange rate switch from "not affordable" to "affordable". as simple as that... or do i miss something?

[LaoPo]

Surely it's extremely hard to guess.... depends on lots of things

Thailand wants tourism so I guess it's in there interests to make it affordable - otherwise all the farangs will go home saying 'forget thailand, the good old days are gone'.

i wonder why PM Abhisit is hesitating! a phone call would solve the problem. all what he has to do is order Ms Tarisa Watanagase or (from 1. oct onwards) her successor Prasarn Trairatvorakul at the Bank of Thailand to flip the THB-exchange rate switch from "not affordable" to "affordable". as simple as that... or do i miss something?

If you miss something?

I wonder...does the Thai Government next to the BoT understand International Economics and the related currencies' policies?

Surely, exports* will (further) drop dramatically once the full impact of the high Baht will be felt abroad (of Thailand) and next to that it is a serious blow to the real estate market for (the few left) foreigners who were thinking of buying property in LOS.

The real estate markets, worldwide, are already in deep <deleted> but this is extra bad news for Thailand.

Someone, planning to buy a piece of real estate of let's say 5M Baht has to bring a lot more money with him than a year ago. For Europeans it's already +20% versus a year ago.

And, I don;t think there are many Asians standing in line to buy Thai real estate, are there ?

* rice exports dropped already -30% in the first 6 months in 2010. That's HUGE!

Well.....does anyone care?

LaoPo

[Naam]

I wonder...does the Thai Government next to the BoT understand International Economics and the related currencies' policies?

i think they do.

[Naam]

Surely, exports* will (further) drop dramatically once the full impact of the high Baht will be felt abroad...

Thailand Exports Rose the Most in More Than 18 Years in June on ...

21 Jul 2010 ... Thailand's exports rose the most in more than 18 years to surpass the record value set before the global financial crisis, ...

www.bloomberg.com/.../2010.../thailand-exports-rose-the-most-in-more-than -18-years-in-june-on-auto-parts.html - Cached

Thailand: Exports Boom Despite Tourism Collapse - BusinessWeek

19 May 2010 ... Recovery July 8, 2010, 11:01AM EST ... Thai exports are likely to grow 25 percent to 30 percent this year, according to Rao. ...

www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/.../b4187014973099.htm - Cached

Bangkok Post : Thai exports forecast to grow by 17-24% in 2010

12 Apr 2010 ... Kasikorn Research Center expects Thai exports to overcome the strong baht and domestic political turmoil to grow by 17-24% in dollar value ...

www.bangkokpost.com/.../thai-exports-forecast-to-grow-by-17-24-in-2010

[Naam]

next to that it is a serious blow to the real estate market for (the few left) foreigners who were thinking of buying property in LOS.

property prices fell percentage wise more and offset the appreciation of THB.

[chiang mai]

I continue to target USD 1.40 and THB 40 and despite occasional blips and mini-surges see no reason to change my view.

[Naam]

I continue to target USD 1.40 and THB 40 and despite occasional blips and mini-surges see no reason to change my view.

you refer to GBP i assume.

[taninthai]

Surely it's extremely hard to guess.... depends on lots of things

Thailand wants tourism so I guess it's in there interests to make it affordable - otherwise all the farangs will go home saying 'forget thailand, the good old days are gone'.

thailand wants tourism correct but over the last few years they are aiming at the high class fivestar brigade so i doubt it is in their interests to make it affordable ........

Really where's that then, i read they was going to continue targeting Iran, lots of 5 star money there is'nt there.

Thailand 2 biggest tourist market are......???? drum roll.....Backpackers & sex tourist, you can't polish a turd. Thailand is what it is. A consequence of a strong currency will be a drop in tourists. Nothing anyone can do about it. Just the same as people on here moaning their currency is worth jack <deleted>.

maybe 10 years ago but not now a backpacker will look to spend 500 bht anight for accomodation five star 5000 bht and up per night think about it , the 5 star tourist will spend more in 1 night than a backpacker or sex tourist will spend in a week. i think your find the sex tourist makes up well less the 25 % off the total tourists coming thailand

Edited September 4, 2010 by taninthai

[chiang mai]

I continue to target USD 1.40 and THB 40 and despite occasional blips and mini-surges see no reason to change my view.

you refer to GBP i assume.

Indeed, my apologies for not being specific.

[12DrinkMore]

maybe 10 years ago but not now a backpacker will look to spend 500 bht anight for accomodation five star 5000 bht and up per night think about it , the 5 star tourist will spend more in 1 night than a backpacker or sex tourist will spend in a week. i think your find the sex tourist makes up well less the 25 % off the total tourists coming thailand

I don't think the hedo-tourist will be having a lot of fun on 500 Baht/night.

[neil324]

Surely it's extremely hard to guess.... depends on lots of things

Thailand wants tourism so I guess it's in there interests to make it affordable - otherwise all the farangs will go home saying 'forget thailand, the good old days are gone'.

thailand wants tourism correct but over the last few years they are aiming at the high class fivestar brigade so i doubt it is in their interests to make it affordable ........

Really where's that then, i read they was going to continue targeting Iran, lots of 5 star money there is'nt there.

Thailand 2 biggest tourist market are......???? drum roll.....Backpackers & sex tourist, you can't polish a turd. Thailand is what it is. A consequence of a strong currency will be a drop in tourists. Nothing anyone can do about it. Just the same as people on here moaning their currency is worth jack <deleted>.

maybe 10 years ago but not now a backpacker will look to spend 500 bht anight for accomodation five star 5000 bht and up per night think about it , the 5 star tourist will spend more in 1 night than a backpacker or sex tourist will spend in a week. i think your find the sex tourist makes up well less the 25 % off the total tourists coming thailand

25% you ever going to find a fiqure in writing anywhere, no. Except you have a whole city that is built on it, various parts of the capital, etc. Many of these also keep coming 3 or 4 times a year going home only to save to return as soon as possible it's addictive to them. 5000 a night? thats 5 star, you ever heard the term '2 week millionaires'. Well sex tourists dont come with 5 satang you known. Many come with serious money on the hip to party, sure many don't care the baht will hit 25 $ but many will and thats serious money taken away from the poorest of the country.

What about the old men who have retired, time for many of them go home when the baht hits 25 $.

I agree that the 5 star spend more but if thats their intention long term, then they have an over supply of hotel's, they better start knocking a few down. Their business model of the last 30 years was'nt aimed towards that market. Pattaya in particular in the last 10 years has doubled in size and monies coming in, all built on a weak curruncy. contraction time i suppose. Although they could start building more shopping malls and hard rocks down there i suppose.

Edited September 4, 2010 by neil324

[taninthai]

[

thailand wants tourism correct but over the last few years they are aiming at the high class fivestar brigade so i doubt it is in their interests to make it affordable ........

Really where's that then, i read they was going to continue targeting Iran, lots of 5 star money there is'nt there.

Thailand 2 biggest tourist market are......???? drum roll.....Backpackers & sex tourist, you can't polish a turd. Thailand is what it is. A consequence of a strong currency will be a drop in tourists. Nothing anyone can do about it. Just the same as people on here moaning their currency is worth jack <deleted>.

maybe 10 years ago but not now a backpacker will look to spend 500 bht anight for accomodation five star 5000 bht and up per night think about it , the 5 star tourist will spend more in 1 night than a backpacker or sex tourist will spend in a week. i think your find the sex tourist makes up well less the 25 % off the total tourists coming thailand

25% you ever going to find a fiqure in writing anywhere, no. Except you have a whole city that is built on it, various parts of the capital, etc. Many of these also keep coming 3 or 4 times a year going home only to save to return as soon as possible it's addictive to them. 5000 a night? thats 5 star, you ever heard the term '2 week millionaires'. Well sex tourists dont come with 5 satang you known. Many come with serious money on the hip to party, sure many don't care the baht will hit 25 $ but many will and thats serious money taken away from the poorest of the country.

What about the old men who have retired, time for many of them go home when the baht hits 25 $.

I agree that the 5 star spend more but if thats their intention long term, then they have an over supply of hotel's, they better start knocking a few down. Their business model of the last 30 years was'nt aimed towards that market. Pattaya in particular in the last 10 years has doubled in size and monies coming in, all built on a weak curruncy. contraction time i suppose. Although they could start building more shopping malls and hard rocks down there i suppose.

seems you are basing your views on one part of thailand pattaya ,not every where in thailand is like pattaya (thank budda) .

it is their intention long term and yes they already do have an over supply of hotels but it doesnt stop them building more,example any bit of beach front land that comes available you can be sure they will build a 4/5 star hotel now thats not aimed at backpackers ,10 years ago thailand was full of backpackers now laos,vietnam and cambodia has opened up as another option.

any way this is way of topic here i have started a thread in general topics type of tourist coming thailand your comments welcome..........

Edited September 5, 2010 by taninthai