rabo

There won't be any peace unless Thaksin thinks he is getting what he wants.

Would it be that difficult to send some special trained guys to end this guy's life now?

Speculation, but maybe that's why he moves around so much and has so many passports.

I think it may have been the yellow shirts. Since the police were targeted, who were known to have sided with the UDD in this conflict by not doing anything to clear them.

Why do you say this? You do not know this at all, you have no proof.

The redshirts are on the verge of getting what they want. It is more much likely that it is someone else who wants to disrupt the peacetrain.

Sawasdee Khrup, Khun UG,

Agree with you: it could have been some other group, but prudence suggests it would be wise, here, not to speculate on all the possible "third-hands" in the frame, behind the scenes, under the rug, in the attic, in the basement, in the closet, etc.

If this is the "peacetrain," we fear its engine runs on human blood, its destination is chaos, and the schedule does not exist because we never know when it either stops or starts. All we can know is that we are riding in the "caboose," and the train is so long, and going around such a long curve, that we can never even see the loco-motive.

sadly, ~o:37;

Well said!

Thais hate Thais but they need to live on the same land. There are no good Thais or bad Thais, there are only Thais who need A NEW POLITICAL system to live together peacefully.

This is the most illogical and ill informed statement I have ever heard. Just because <your nationality> hates <your nationality> and need <your chosen political system> to live together peacefully.

Well, Samak had to leave because of his cooking show. Seems only fair that the Democrats now face the same because of making billboards the wrong size.

By the way, the much bigger case against the Democrats is that they took 250+ million Baht in illegal donations during the last election. It's not about the billboards. They're just trying to distract the public from the real case against them.

The 249 million baht contribution may not be the "bigger" of two evils. There is some question as to whether it was illegal or not, possibly because it was made at a time when constitutional laws were not in effect. Also, the EC committee was not unanimous in their vote on this charge, so there was a lack of agreement even at the EC level.

If a party must be disbanded in Thailand, it seems more appropriate to do so because of sub-size billboards.

Otherwise, there will be those that ask "Samak was thrown out for cooking, why not Abhisit for illegible signs?".

Then one could also ask, who is responsible for the tiny flight schedule signs at Suvarniphumi. Could it be Mr T?

<snip>

As you see, red isn't so much different from yellow in the way they operate. So my question, why are one group allowed to run around freely while the other is being charged with terrorism?

How many times do you have to be told?

The yellows have been charged and are waiting for court proceedings.

That is exactly they same thing that will happen with most of the reds.

Since 2 years? And why were they not charged with terrorism? Abhisit has clearly said that the red shirts will be charged with terrorism because they entered government house for 30 minutes. The PAD were there for 8 months ...but no terrorism charges?

Because unlike the red-shirts, the yellows did not use grenades, plastic explosives, and RPG rockets to destroy the country's infrastructure, possess a trained militant wing led by a general, and publicly call for the burning of buildings and destruction of BTS stations.

The yellows entered the restricted zone in the airport, without boarding passes? (just guessing here).

So the reds are stalling ---- probably for amnesty for the bosses.

The majority of the country seems to be in favor of Abhisit's roadmap going forward. The PAD hates it (a selling point for the reds) and the PAD are not the red's problem. The Democrats are behind it. The coalition partners are behind it. No group loves it universally.

Isn't by definition a negotioation between hostile parties at it's best when every side can live with it and nobody loves it?

Obviously the reds are not "sincere".

Looking at some recent tidbits (all from the Nation News thread) it looks like back to square one.

April or May ????

May 6, Red-shirt rally core leader Weng Tojirakan has called on at least one-million red-shirt people from across the country to mobilize to the Ratchaprasong intersection to put pressure on Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to dissolve the parliament as soon as possible.

Trust?

May 5, (NNT) .. The Center for the Resolution of Emergency Situation (CRES) has deployed security officers to set up checkpoints to prevent weapons being smuggled out from the rally site of the United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) at Ratchaprasong Intersection.

May 6, At the Ratchaprasong intersection on May 6th, red-shirt force's security guards were stationed at all entrance to the protest site to prevent military and police officers from infiltrating them and hiding weapons and ammunition within the rally area.

And the roadblock on the roadmap?

May 5, Abhisit also said he was under constant pressure, especially from Thaksin, who kept calling coalition parties' executives to abandon the government. Therefore, he said, he had to find the best way out of this situation.

The red demand for immediate dissolution would allow Thaksinites to control the next military, budget, and ultimately the next premiership. Why? So that some kind of amnesty can be granted and pave the way home for Mr. Thaksin.

Since a November election would not favor the Thaksinites, the only way for Thaksin is some kind of amnesty, now. No doubt, Thaksin would feel that forgiveness must touch him as well, after all the reds are his people.

Without Thaksin getting what he wants, the problems are unlikely to end in compromise, and the government must fight it out with pressure and attrition of the red's will.

Of course, none of this yet addresses the country's real problems, economic inequality in the light of economic development, reducing corruption and voter fraud to allow democracy to function, and ultimately what kind of democratic system is best for the country, culture, and people. This will all have to wait for the end of Thaksin's temper tantrum.

why do you think he's not part of the yellows? the Foreign Minister was on the airport stage supporting them - most of his people are yellow supporters - no question - they only start distancing now the yellows want him out too - bit of a joke really...

The Yellows support him because he's not red. He doesn't support the yellows.

Why would the yellows start their own party if the Dems were the yellow party?

Well the same could be said for the reds? anyway why appoint a yellow to Foreign Minister? you gloss over that - he is far more yellow than red put it that way and he must be feeling sick over his cornflakes in his Army home this morning.

Answer is very simple, actually. There were a whole lot of people, parties, and groups that were opposed to

the re-emergence of Thaksin's power, not just the yellows. The yellows are simply one political faction, probably not that big.

If you want to label all these people (anti-Thaksin power) you will need a new color.

Perhaps see-khee-ma.

There has been an ongoing investigation to the deaths that have occurred complete with Red shirts on the panel....

Yes I can state that the terrorists are working for Sae Daeng and that Sae Daeng is a red working for Thaksin.

whats yr evidence?

or is it just yr view?

Here's some good insights that directly addresses the Sae Daeng issue in this situation from a world-class media source:

Bangkok Faces Risks in November Vote Offer

Wall Street Journal

May 5, 2010

BANGKOK—Thailand's army leaders made an enemy when they assigned Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol to lead aerobics-dance classes in Bangkok's public markets a couple of years ago.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...ttoWhatsNewsTop

Amnesty for Seh Daeng, Army style.

Seh Daeng: Boss!

Anupong: Remember that grenade you tossed in my office the day after you left?

Seh Daeng: Um, just teaching dancing, that's what you ordered, right??

Anupong: You must return all the weapons.

Seh Daeng: But they confiscated the weapons from my house and my advisor's house, the ones I knew nothing about, remember?.

Anupong: Not those, the other weapons.

Seh Daeng: Can't. The C4 that didn't detonate on the power pylons was taken by police.

Anupong: How about all the grenades?

Seh Daeng: Not reading the news? Confiscated from the police by the police.

Anupong: Then, just return the rocket launchers.

Seh Daeng: OK, but might be short a few rockets. Who would ever think an RPG can't destroy a fuel storage tank?

Anupong: And I want all the other bombs

Seh Daeng: Well, I'm not sure where the guys hid them. Maybe I can borrow some GT200 bomb detectors?

Anupong: Please take them all, just return the bombs you find.

Seh Daeng: Right, sir!

Anupong: And another thing......

Seh Daeng: Anything, sir!

Anupong: When you come back, this time, you are going to teach aerobics.

Seh Daeng: <exits>

Friend: What's the deal?

Seh Daeng: Says I gotta teach aerobics. Ha! Only aerobics I'm going to teach is how to perforate people with a machine gun........

Historical background, After Seh Daeng visited Thaksin in Cambodia, Anupong

relieved him of his duties and instructed him to teach dancing class. Later,

Seh Daeng is quoted as saying the only lesson he will prepare is how to throw a

grenade. When Anupong finally dismissed Seh Daeng, a grenade was thrown into

Aunpong's office the next day, an act widely attributed to Seh Daeng.

Pornsasi ---

Thaksin was popular (that is fading). Your conclusion as to why are questionable though.

He bought his popularity in three ways ...

1) Populist polocies --- not altogether a bad thing

2) Gaining the loyalty (however) of people that controlled the local political machines. Newin amongst others have since abandoned him

3) creating a client/patron system with loans --- make loans available, make them due in 3 years, if he gets back in then they get extended. (that system is being taken down by Abhisit's programs.

jdinasia . Why cant you admit that the reports on Thaksin economic achievements in respected bodies like the World Bank are extremely positive .

Why cant you visit North and central Thailand and ask yourself the people there what they think of Thaksin .

Who should i believe , you or the World bank ? you or the Isaan people ?

You lack objectivity due to your obvious political leaning .

By the way i am not against Abhisit

Edit Typo

Not saying all Thaksin policies for the poor were not helpful but I have to wonder about this one ...

First of all, the data regarding poverty was not info from the World Bank but info they published which was provided by Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board

Secondly, the numbers are based on a REVISED poverty level put in place in 2005

Thirdly one must wonder, since the the vast majority of those getting out of poverty during this period are in the Issan region, if it was the loans Thaksin provided to these folks that took them out of poverty and now has them so in debt since everyone knew they would not be able to pay them back and that there was no requirements on how these loans were to be invested. The only people who now seemed to have benefited from these loans are the village leaders.

See World Bank Report 2005: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTTHAI...full-report.pdf

A nice piece of data. Also according to the report, much of the increased income came from increased agricultural income (40%). A quick search for rice production for the same period suggests that much of the increase can be attributed to increases in rice production and yield.

The big shocker though is the huge increase in the commodities price of rice since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, more than doubling (100%).

It would be interesting to see the drop in poverty during Abhisit's time in office.

I don't disagree! for a start the Military and 'other' influences should stay out of politics

The problem i suppose is a lack of powerful system of check and balance in Thailand .

How do you make sure that the PM does not abuse his power ?

That points once again to corruption

How long do you think a corrupt PM , or one that orders extrajudiciary killings

would last in a western democracy ? Not very long . He would be kicked out in no time

by the courts (supreme court say in USA )

In Thailand they have an answer for that , and its the army . But I 100% agree

with you that the army should not get involved in politics

This then begs the question, under the rules of the constitutional monarchy, what is the official role of the military? I had always assumed that protection of the monarchy, who is the head of state, would be one such responsibility, though I don't know for sure.

If you could read and watch Thai news, not just TheNation and the like, you would know that they are indeed "truck drivers", not "bus drivers".

Prove it then. Show me a credible source that says that the video shows 'bus drivers' being paid and not supporters.

The proof is in your video, which is why your proof is so ridiculous. Open your ears and listen (if you understand Thai).

With your excellent Thai skills can you please tell me at what point in the video the announcer is talking about bus drivers?

Lots of youthful female bus drivers there snoop, but why did they give up their ID cards? Can't drive a bus without one.

Oh the red shirts! Show them something that isn't in their favor, the say it's fake. Show them a movie of their 'supporters' getting paid off, they say they're all 'bus drivers'. Such amusing people!

If you could read and watch Thai news, not just TheNation and the like, you would know that they are indeed "truck drivers", not "bus drivers".

Dead, think fast, what is ratchathamanoon? You have 60 seconds.

better red than dead!

better red, then dead

I think the yellow shirt leaders are just as concerned with amnesty as the red shirt leaders. If the red shirt leaders don't get amnesty, that means that the yellow shirt leaders won't get amnesty either. And especially, people will ask for the yellow shirt trials to be finished before the red shirt trials ...and they're 2 years ahead on those. Do any of you see Sondhi Limthongkul, basically the yellow shirt founder and Thai media empire billionaire going to prison? No way. He'll be supporting amnesty for the red shirt leaders just to save his own bottom.

Any Red leader who had parliamentary immunity will not need an amnesty, the same applies to anyone who took part in the PAD rallies who also had immunity. EVERYONE else will have to take their chances - and frankly I don't give the Reds much hope of getting off the hook here. Apart from invading a hospital blocking the BTS, setting up their own roadblocks they have been found repeatedly to be violent, I would guess overwhelmingly more violent than the yellows to a ratio of say 20 to 1, all backed up and incited by the hate spewing from the mouths of red shirt leaders. To think that the red leaders will be let off the hook in order to let yellow leaders off the hook is simply delusional when you examine the relative seriousness of the violence and intimidation they were responsible for.

I agree. The desire of some to equate closing the airport as equal to an organized attempt to overthrow the government by violent means, would not hold much legal water.

However, both should be prosecuted for what they are.

An honest question. Did any of the yellow shirt leaders actually call for the closure of the airport? Or, was it a mass action of the protesters once they arrived there?

so when will PAD people be prosecuted for occupying govt house for over 100 days, and the airport for 7 days ?

Or are double-standards still to apply ?

Don't hold your breath, dude...how would the elite feel if double standards were reduced/eliminated? They'd suddenly start feeling less superior to those damned red shirted Isaan buffalos if they had to obey the same laws....it cannot be allowed to happen...

Double standards for all!

That weird Aussie dude, Conor David Purcell, should have no amnesty either.

I think we all can agree on this.

What he did?

I think he was a farang who had the audacity to support the red shirts and go on their stage...supporting redshirts is a hanging offense according to the yellow blind crowd here on TVF....

His offense was joining and publicly supporting the armed overthrow of the government and institutions of Thailand......

.....without a visa.

Max fine 20,000 baht + hanging

Hmmmmm....

Wasn't any mention of that "OTHER" English language newspaper Banned from this Board?????

No, using their articles and linking to their articles online is.

I think ThaiVisa is "banned" from allowing links to and direct copies of that other newspaper's content, probably for commerical reasons.

Thaksin response to Abhist road map?

Nice one. You want me to translate this too?

I thought this was pretty dam_n funny but Thais with little understanding of editing videos have cried laughing when they see this.

My wife has demanded I put a copy of this on her computer (no internet). Does anyone know a downloadable version of the clip or how to store it from flashplayer?

Thanks.

If they accept Abhisit's compromise, the Red Shirts will have succeeded through civil disobedience in making redress of their grievances a national priority and accelerated elections by 6 months. They can declare victory and use the momentum generated to reshape Parliament through the ballot box. IMO they ought to accept the compromise subject to further clarification of the details.

And I'm sure they will claim some kind of victory, but the tide has turned and few will care.\

In Thailand, a lie need only be good enough that others can pretend to believe it without losing face.

Abhisit has really shown himself to be a stand up guy who has done a lot for Thailand and the poor in the short time since being elected PM. He has done this while having to deal with former Thaksin supporters who have constantly tried to derail any positive growth in Thailand. But he has prevailed and not only has the economy got back on track, he has not taken away any of the policies Thaksin put in place for the poor but in fact has added more real ones and bettered some of Thaksin's failed ones. He has also taken this country in the right direction despite many in the army and police being Thaksin supporters.

Abhisit is incredibly well educated both in Thai ways as well as internationally. He also comes from a very well off family and has little motivation to be corrupt. His words and actions seem to go hand in hand to the best of his ability and there is no reason to believe he cannot be trusted beyond his being a politician. He even was against the coup that ousted the corrupt Thaksin as he knew this was not the democratic way.

Abhisit has shown a true love of Thailand, its people as well as the monarchy.

He asked everyone to be patient and he has now finally delivered a plan as promised to end the current lawless red mob seizure of BKK and hostage taking of Thailand. Clearly the patience has allowed the red mob to be marginalized while giving them enough rope to hang themselves. His road map is not about giving the reds what they want (pretty much the same offer he gave at the start of this) but instead is about getting Thailand back on track and moving in a truly modern democratic way.

If the red leaders don't accept this offer, there numbers in the red mob will be very very small leaving only the hardcore people bent on hurting Thailand at any cost to bring back Thaksin. He has said all along he didn't want to break up the lawless mob until he could do it without harming a great number of civilians in the crowd.

The red mob has no move left but either resorting to an all out terrorist campaign or turn themselves in and/or go home. The red leaders goal of having the authorities move in and face the mob who would react violently is now not an option. Sure they can still do this but they are not going to gain any of the sympathy they want from it and it certainly will not make the PM or gov't look evil. In fact, the gov't would benefit now if they can use force to remove the last remnants and most hardcore of the reds from their illegal seizure of an area in BKK.

The reds had a chance to walk away with credibility and as winner when the PM agreed to sit down with them and the PM's first offer in the negotiation was pretty much what he is offering now. The red mob loses either way now and their only hope it to agree to go home and step up rhetoric of how they won and pretend their movement wasn't incredibly harmful to Thailand and their own movement.

I really disagree with this - without the reds action Abhisit would never have brought forward the election - a very biased view of this outcome (which I hope the reds will accept) - a victory for the reds - if only they can see it and grasp it! they have won now go home and prepare for government.

Although I agree this would not have happened without the red protests, I have trouble thinking of it as a red victory. Many (some) of the red leaders are going be be locked up, Thaksin lost what little face he may have had, and Mr. Abhisit and his followers are now in an immensely stronger position. Abhisit is problaby happy to hold the elections in November rather than wait another year.

I'd take my hat off to Abhisit any day ...as soon as he explains on national television as to why he took a 259 million Baht illegal donation during the last election, and approved it as the chairman of the Democrats. Sure, you can try and smear the opposition party as corrupt, but at least you've got to acknowledge you're just as corrupt. Hands caught in the cookie jar

you are grasping at the very few straws left on the table

dissolution will never happen by this route

its a trumped up charge, passed over quickly by the EC commission under death threat by Arisaman and his rent a mob.

when its investigated it will be seen to have been passed upstairs under duress and to be an eroneous charge manufactured by Phua Thai to muddy the waters of the Democrats

it will be seen for what it is and officially dropped when the Red head haze has died down

Korn and Abhissit are both financial wizards, Korn is the 2010 Asian banker of the year

do you really think they couldn't have laundered this in a way so that it would not be discovered by the ex rice pickers/bean counters at the EC?

please grow up........

Don't have silly hopes. The evidence is clear. 2 cases, in one the EC voted 4:1 and in the other 5:0.

It is a save bet to say that the democrats will be dissolved and Abhisit banned from politics.

Korn will go afterwards to New Politics Party and not join the new 'ex-democrats' party.

Dead....., sorry to disappoint , according to my almost a lawyer niece, the 250m baht contribution was made, legally, after the 1997 constitution was revoked and before the 2007 constitution was put in place. It is going to be hard for the courts to find a constitutional law that was violated.

Both illegal contribution charges are less serious charges than election fraud, and could have been decided by the head of the EC alone. He was sitting on the charges until Arisman stormed to EC and the vote was made the next day, by the whole (but not required) committee. This is called buck passing under pressure.

The dems also have the best legal teams in the country.

Mr Kasit reportedly told them that the Thai government always adheres to the code for respecting human rights under the democratic system and has been avoiding the use of force although the Cabinet on Sunday agreed to allow the government to use force in containing the protesters, but the agreement is "only an option while the government doesn't intend to use it".

From post 1: Am I the only one that thinks this paragraph (in quotation) is absurd in so many ways it beggers belief.

Fair dinkum, I am having a great deal of trouble understanding what is being said!

This is a preemptive double-layer face saving lookback. Common in Thailand.

A couple of weeks or so ago the courts did one when it ruled that force could not be used against the protesters. When questioned, they qualified that by saying the ruling applied unless force was required.

If anything were to really happen, they would probably explain it was OK, if required, but not if actually used. Just quessing.

Tends to keep all sides happy.

If the international community (and therefor also the US) wanted to arrest Thaksin, they would have done so a long time ago. Meanwhile he's been in the UK, Russia, Germany, UAE, Saudi Arabia, among other countries. All of them have extradition treaties with Thailand but none of them have any interest of joining Thailand's politically-motivated "Banana Circus".

Sure they do. He has been banned from major countries, I believe he will be arrested in Germany, and other countries have banned him from pursuing political activities from within their borders.

Extradition is a complex legal process and hard to pursue as long as T is jet hopping between "less honorable" states looking for passports, which is probably why he is doing that???

If the Thai government revokes his Thai passport, and he returns, he will have to do border runs like the rest of the farang and pay the exorbitant visa fees he himself implemented.

Reply to OP only:

Good article and it gives a sound basic explanation for a western audience that doesn't know Thailand from Taiwan.

I disagree with ICG and think Abhisit is giving the Reds enough rope to hang themselves. And it's working. It's the Reds who are stuck on a path to unpopularity in messy and imperfect democracy. The upcoming elections need to be focused on.

Elected civilian control of the military is prime and I hope the courts think the same.

I hope you are wrong.

The elected officials are not responsible enough to have direct control of the military. Thaksin trying to do this is what kicked off this whole mess. There is nothing wrong with the current system. If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it.

Thailand needs a somewhat independent military as a guiding hand for when the corrupt civilian government gets too far out of line. The military is corrupt also, but doesn't have any desire to try and rule the day to day activities of the Kingdom thus making them a little more responsible. You may not like this particular balance of power, but it is working. The military is slowly giving up its monopoly hold on various industries to the civilian establishment. This trend will continue. Give it time. I hope this whole ugly mess simply fades into the background and things go back to the status quo.

In several decades after the education system has been improved and people have learned how to think independently and learned the meaning of responsibility, maybe we can try it your way. For now, Thais are like children and the military is the only parent we've got. I hate to think what this country would become if you took that discipline away.

I don't want to run that experiment.

This is the whole idea behind the concept of the constitutional monarchy. It is the stepping stone from a benevolent kingdom to a modern democracy. So far, the population has not received very good grades and Thaksin flunked out.