tomacht8

15 minutes ago, nauseus said:

As good a thread as any Bill. This is the kind of important news that remainers like to ignore completely. I tried already. 

This is funny.
In Germany they are prepared to vote again,  if no agreement can be reached.
A concept that is not so common in the UK, I guess.

Enjoy the giraffes

On 20.11.2017 at 12:05 PM, Chomper Higgot said:

Leaders of Britain's aerospace industry are giving evidence to parliament on the impact of Brexit on their businesses. 

 

I take it we all accept that the leaders of this industry know more about the subject than anyone on this board. 

 

So let's listen to what they have to say.

Would be nice to learn something about the results.
The airlines plan their flight plans (start rights, landing rights, slots and paperwork) 1 year and more in advance.
I think that there are still some problems that are likely to kicking in soon.

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Exactly, regulatory equivalence is something that has yet to raise its head in the brexit debate.

Many of the large pharmaceuticals are located in the UK because of the EMA, they may well be looking to Amsterdam now its been decided.

That scares me more.
How quickly the EU has given up the UK.
1 year and 4 months before it is decided that the two EU institutions move without reserve.
As an European, i does not understand, that the idea of an united Europe (include the UK and with all other 27 member states) is given up so quickly.
Brexit so fast?
Why?
It simply lacks the time for necessary talks.

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Fruit is cheaper from places like South America than it is from France and Spain (once you take out the punitive EU tariffs). And you might have noticed that manufactured goods are exponentially cheaper from asia (particularly China) than they are from Europe. So much so, that most of the west's marquee companies pay asian factories to manufacture their goods, then ship them to western countries re-branded and priced accordingly. Which shows that paticular 'rule' of gravity economics to be the load of <deleted> that it is.

Well, I'm clapping my hands for joy.
Why do not you explain that to the UK farmers?
Why do not you explain that to the UK industry and everyone who works there and earns their living?
 

3 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Quite, I remember the days of Certificates of Origin and Certificates of Conformance, not something we should go back to.

 

 

To avoid this is certainly the goal of the negotiations.
I also remember the paperwork well. At that time, for a good friend, I bought children's jeans clothes in Bangkok and imported them to Germany for their small shop.
Have never seen before at the customs the thick book with the product groups and commodity numbers.
A nightmare. In the end, we paid a lot of customs and import sales tax.
The tariffs have also been different, depending on whether import quotas existed or not.
If there is no agreement or transitional period, it will come  that the trade is severely hampered.
That will be good for nobody.

9 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Estimate on the EMA relocation is likely to cost the UK 580 million Euros, but DD said it wouldn't happen. It is not just the loss of the agencies, the EMA is estimated at having over 35,000 visitors a year, all requiring food and accommodation.

 

The agencies’ previous location in the UK recognised Britain’s role as a financial and pharmaceutical industry superpower within the EU. In April, Brexit Secretary David Davis wrongly said the agencies would be able to stay in Britain after Brexit.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-netherlands-amsterdam-ema-benefit-eu-agencies-relocate-from-uk-london-european-council-a8066191.html

 

The bill Britain must pay for moving the European Medicines Agency (EMA) from London after Brexit has soared to a staggering £520m, it has emerged.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-european-medicines-agency-move-london-eu-cost-bill-520-million-nhs-europe-a7873226.html

 

Furthermore, the UK is probably forced to build its own pharmaceutical control center to avoid that people may not have to eat rat poison tablets from dubious sources. The whole thing is quite research and staff intensive and therefore quite expensive. Normally sharing these costs with many countries makes sense. 

19 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

You must have missed Tomacht's rather 'out there' post, where he claimed that, for the classic model of economics to work properly, people would have to travel to point-of-sale to purchase (such as traveling to Spain to buy the cheapest vibrators). Go back and read it and see if you can make any sense of it. If you can, do the forum a favour and translate it into English.

Oh dear,
you have no glue about theoretical, macroeconomic models.
You just do not know what a premise in an economic model is.
No problems with space and distance bridging is one from five premises.
And without realizing it, you certify the model from Minford, thus a rejection. Because exactly this example with Spain shows that his model is just a theoretical one.

11 minutes ago, Jack100 said:

Oh dear , this is some sort of nightmare - please wake me up ...................back when   the pound bought 52.90 bath !

The same applies to the euro.
38 - 39 Baht now.
Brexit meets us all.

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

By %/GDP countries higher debt than the UK are: Greece, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus, Belgium, Portugal, Spain and  France.

Absolutely right.
The representation of per capita debt is a good measure to understand the debt plastically.
It is not that the UK is here in the forefront of debt-free states in Europe.
BTW
The UK contribution to the EU membership costs exactly 0.48% of the UK GDP

Report from a German freight forwarder
The trucks drive back empty
About the Brexit is still negotiating. But the economy is already anticipating many consequences.

Achim Junker has already revised the plans of his drivers, recalculated their working hours, calculated their new routes. While representatives of the British government in Brussels are still negotiating how the exit of Great Britain from the EU is to take place, the forwarder from Blankenbach in Lower Franconia already provides facts. He sends fewer and fewer trucks towards the island. It used to be ten 40-tonners every week, the entrepreneur says, but now there are only four or five. "Some colleagues have already completely withdrawn from the market," says the entrepreneur.

No one yet knows what Brexit will look like at the end of the negotiations in March 2019, yet it is already casting its shadow ahead. Too vague are the ideas of Theresa May, as the Brexit and its proposed in Florence transitional solution should look like. Too unsure what kind of free trade agreement the EU will eventually reach with the British. The economy is reacting, trade between Germany and the United Kingdom is suffering. Exports from Germany to Great Britain, which had risen sharply after 2012, have been decreasing slightly since June 2016. At that time, the British voted for the exit. Conversely, exports from the UK to Germany have been particularly striking, from 1.65 million tonnes in June 2016 to 1.48 million in June 2017. And this despite the fact that the British pound has clearly lost value during this period - that would have actually need to boost British exports.

In Blankenheim, Achim Junker knows exactly why. The forwarder just has to think about his customers. In the past, his drivers drove to automotive suppliers in Aschaffenburg and Frankfurt, where they loaded parts such as fenders or other materials. From there, the trucks drove the semi-finished products hundreds of miles west, through Belgium, through France, to England. There, they delivered the products to companies that made car seats out of the materials or painted the fenders. The trade was so busy that the drivers fully loaded also returned to Germany. Junker's lorries lined up in a stream of three million trucks a year, shuttling between Britain and continental Europe to deliver goods. They are all part of tightly knit supply chains and production processes, which are difficult to re-allocate, but an example of what is possible when there are no customs duties and goods can be traded freely between countries - as in the EU's internal market.

But now? "The business is not running anymore," says Junker. One customer, a German company, switched immediately after the referendum on Brexit in the UK. "He was looking for producers in Eastern Europe at the next trade fair," says Junker, "so the business was gone for us." The entrepreneur observes that more and more companies in Germany are switching without hanging on to the big bell. The forwarder sees it on the websites of freight exchanges that he can access. At present, on the return trips from the UK to continental Europe, 67 percent of the cargo hold of the trucks are empty and only 33 percent are loaded with cargo, sometimes only 25 percent, he has observed. "The price for the outward journey can not be so good as to go back empty-handed," says Junker.

The economy, as experienced by the freight forwarder, anticipates the Brexit. There are still no tariffs, nor are there trade restrictions, nor is there a bureaucracy at the border. But because the German companies expect it, they are already looking for new customers and suppliers. Companies do not even want to risk having to shut down their machines just because a truck with components stuck in customs at the border.

Figures from the Federal Statistical Office show Junker's impressions: German exports to the United Kingdom fell by three percent in the first half of this year compared to the same period of the previous year. At the same time, exports to other EU countries increased by six percent. Trade in Europe is flourishing - business with Great Britain is stagnating.

And nothing happens that could provide confidence. Prime Minister May has not been able to point out a clear line in her speech in Florence; her cabinet is too divided.

If the UK leaves the European Economic Area and the Customs Union, exporters and importers have to complete extensive formalities, there will have to be border controls, trade agreements or not. That means additional costs and, depending on trade agreements, tariffs. A digital customs system, as the British imagine for the future, would be a novelty, nowhere in the world, has never been tested. In parliamentary committees, representatives of the ministries condescendingly admit to parliamentarians that they have no idea how such a system should be implemented at all.

Germany: Goldman Sachs plans with two major European offshoots after the Brexit
November 20, 2017, 11:50 am Source: afp

Paris (AFP) Goldman Sachs CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, has confirmed the plans of the US investment bank in Europe for the period after Brexit. Goldman Sachs will have "two European headquarters", one in Frankfurt am Main and one in Paris, said Blankfein to the French newspaper "Le Figaro" on Monday. Brexit forces the bank to "decentralize" its business. Frankfurt and Paris have been selected because Germany and France are the largest European economies.

34 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I'm sure that the EU will get what they fairly due, which is not 40B unless it includes extra for this "transition" period.

 

The EU slight growth is very recent and it won't last - still far too much debt and high risk of debt default in the EU. 

 

 

Yes, many European countries have high debts.
The UK currently has 1,89 trillion £ debt.
Is 29.672 £ per head (Debt per capita), Or  33.404 € (Debt per capita).
The UK has slightly less debt per capita than Greece (35.958 €) and slightly more than Austria (31.612 €).

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

Because we're being messed about by remainers and Project Fear. The celebrations will come, quite literally, the minute we actually leave.

Oops, these 48% remainers, what a nasty group.

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

The model does not work as you say. Try reading it in detail. And it is a model which is perfectly suitable to today's world.

Ok, i try to make Minfords theoretical model simple:

The 5 premises of the perfect market are:
1. unlimited reaction speed of the market to price changes
If a dealer of toilet paper at London Heathrow lowers its price for this good, all the demand for toilet paper will immediately fall to him, because he is the cheapest provider.

2. no personal preferences in the trade
If you buy your bread for breakfast, and you have the choice to make a purchase from a 22-year-old saleswoman with sexy long legs or an old unfriendly man. Where would you buy your bread? If the old mans bread would be 3 pence cheaper, nobody would buy bread from the girl.

3. no problems with geographical bridging.
If the cheapest provider for a commodity (let's say a lady vibrator) sits in Spain, all the British would go shopping there.

4. All market participants have the same information.
So, if the dealer for toilet paper in London Heathrow lowers his price, all Londoners would know that at the same time.

5. All goods are homogeneous.
Every natural product (lets say a banana) would then have to be identical,
in shape, color, material and decoration.
 

That's just a theoretical model.
The substantiated explanation for real trade can not and will not be provided by this model.
Minford always reflects his theoretical model on the practice against the background of the perfect market.
Believe it or not, Minford's publications are hardly quoted in serious economics science.
But in the SUN and Express you can read a lot about him.
But if the assumptions of the perfect market are valid, then Minford would be right.
All the British would buy there toilet paper in London Heathrow, would buy there bread from an old man, would buy there vibrators in Spain and would eat identical bananas.

Do not follow a blind man, if you have 86 men with each one eye around you.

 

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

The model does not work as you say. Try reading it in detail. And it is a model which is perfectly suitable to today's world.

Do not worry, have studied theoretical micro, macro and national economics accounts for years.
I had studied monetary policy and monetary theory with Otmar Issing.
Minford's theories are known to me.

38 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

https://theconversation.com/how-the-uk-can-benefit-from-a-free-trade-future-after-brexit-even-outside-the-single-market-84171

 

The article begins by explaining the history of the European customs union (German protectionism). It promotes the view that a Britain free of that protectionism and bureaucracy can flourish in free trade with the rest of the world.

 

The article then goes on to point out that economic forecasters got their post-referendum forecasts badly wrong, and posits that they got it wrong because they adhere to the 'gravity model' of economics, in which it's considered to be best practice to be as physically and culturally close to your favoured trading partners as possible. It's suggested that this is a fallacy, as shown by history: All of Britain's major trading partners in the nineteenth century were on the other side of the world (ok, different world now, I know), and Britain's exports to the EU have actually fallen in percentage in recent years.

 

The article then expands on the theory that a 'classical model' of Britain trading globally, free of assorted EU shackles and financial commitments, can see a 7% increase in GDP. For those who are genuinely interested in this, not just scoring points on internet fora, the economist Patrick Minford goes into great detail here:

 

http://brexitcentral.com/brexit-free-trade-critics-wrong-dismiss-classical-model/

Minford's assumptions are based on the perfect market model.

The 5 premises of the perfect market are:
1. unlimited reaction speed of the market to price changes
2. no personal preferences in the trade
3. no problems with geographical bridging.
4. All market participants have the same information.
5. All goods are homogeneous.

This is a 200 year old theoretical model.
But has nothing to do with the practice of the real economies on this planet.
 

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

You say harm. I say wellness. The harm was deviously inflicted 44 years ago.

Understand your view,
but i wonder why millions do not dance on the street with joy, fireworks everywhere, Brexit parties on mass, the sound of champagne glasses klicking, the spirit of a new departure everywhere?
I tend to see the opposite, everyone is moaning.
Even the 52% Brexiters are not all satisfied. Could it be that is there a lot of hassles right now?

9 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

https://theconversation.com/how-the-uk-can-benefit-from-a-free-trade-future-after-brexit-even-outside-the-single-market-84171

 

The article begins by explaining the history of the European customs union (German protectionism). It promotes the view that a Britain free of that protectionism and bureaucracy can flourish in free trade with the rest of the world.

 

The article then goes on to point out that economic forecasters got their post-referendum forecasts badly wrong, and posits that they got it wrong because they adhere to the 'gravity model' of economics, in which it's considered to be best practice to be as physically and culturally close to your favoured trading partners as possible. It's suggested that this is a fallacy, as shown by history: All of Britain's major trading partners in the nineteenth century were on the other side of the world (ok, different world now, I know), and Britain's exports to the EU have actually fallen in percentage in recent years.

 

The article then expands on the theory that a 'classical model' of Britain trading globally, free of assorted EU shackles and financial commitments, can see a 7% increase in GDP. For those who are genuinely interested in this, not just scoring points on internet fora, the economist Patrick Minford goes into great detail here:

 

http://brexitcentral.com/brexit-free-trade-critics-wrong-dismiss-classical-model/

Patrick Minford!
You can read about his scientific reputation everywhere.

https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21727078-patrick-minford-thinks-gdp-could-increase-68-most-economists-say-brexit-will-hurt

9 minutes ago, nauseus said:

You should be 

I am. It is not nice to joke about the harm of others,
even if the damage is self inflicted.

1 hour ago, aright said:

Neither is democracy.......its much more important than that and can't be left in the hands of recalcitrant Remainers.

26 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

 

It was a "close run result" when Mohamhed Ali beat Henry Cooper, it was a "close run thing" when England beat Germany 4-2 in 1966 and Blackpool won 4-3 in the 1953 FA Cup Final.

 

 

I didn't see Cooper, Germany or Bolton bleating like spoilt children saying if "only 635,000 people had voted the other way..."  IF, IF , IF !!

 

IF my Aunty had balls she would have been my uncle.

 

 

<deleted>, get a grip........... I am surprised to find someone as old as you who is so undemocratic.

Brexit is not a sports game.

From all your examples, are there any dangers or drastic changes for your life? Or do sports results change your life in a straight and long term, maybe over decades?
If so, Brexit vote was one Year a go, time for a rematch?
 

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

So much for brexit squeezing UK inc's public budget:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42034392

Do not worry there is enough money.
If the UK ever started taxing all its super-rich, taxrefugees , tax evaders, and offshore letterbox residents properly, the UK would be swimming in money and there would be more left over for the public.

Look at the GINI coefficient, the unequal distribution between poor and rich,
The unequal distribution of income.
That would certainly be the lever.
But this topic, many Brexit politicians does not like it at all.

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

And exponentially the biggest reason for the mess is remain refusing to accept the decision to leave, and undermining the government on it at every turn.

A real step forward.
The first time that the EU is not portrayed as a responsible culprit.
Now slowly the word BREXIT gets a content.
And this content is rich in facets like a kaleidoscope.
This extends from: throwing all foreigners out of the country, own border controls, paying no divorce costs, over a transition period, having a new trade deal, to remaining in the common market, continue to maintain good relations with the EU, paste and copy EU laws, but, ......
And all this coupled with a time pressure and time limit, within reasonable solutions can not be realized.
Have already posted in another thread how long normally new trade agreements take until they are signed.
The UK negotiators seem to forget that they are negotiating with 27 states at the same time and that's system conditionally, time-consuming.
The whole thing is a bit like Nena's song: 99 Balloons.
And every balloon is a new idea that is released daily by the UK politicians.
Even the Brexiters do not agree on what kind of brexit they really want.

25 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

If they veto the deal that's on the table, then we have no deal.  What then?

 

Maybe you think the EU (all 27 members) would allow us to reverse Article 50 and remain in the EU under the same terms we had before. I highly doubt that. Unless of course they all realise the EU will collapse without the UK's funding...

 

Technically we all know referendums are advisory, but we all know the result is binding in this case. That was made absolutely clear before, during and after the referendum.

no worries. the best strategic eu bureaucrats are still counting. a brexit could also mean a profit for the EU. but would contradict the philosophy of an united Europe. somehow it has to go on.