candide

Let's be honest. 1. Apparently RCP shows an approval rating of 42 for the ABC/Wapo/Ipsos Poll, while Ipsos shows a 39% rating. I don't know why. A mistake or they have not included the latest poll? RCP and CNN don't have exactly the same panel of polls and probably not the same aggregation method. Practically RCP aggregation is more right-leaning while CNN is more left-leaning. 538 was the more reliable but they have closed their website. Anyway, Trump approval ratings seem to evolve rather quickly, so let's see next week what the numbers are. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/americans-have-negative-economic-outlook-even-many-feel-their-personal-economic-situation-hasnt 2. In the OP, I have linked Trump's tweet, also linked in the article cited. If you click on "show more", you will see that he used the word FRAUD as well as other insults such as criminals, fake polls, cheating, lying, etc... There's no doubt about the meaning of his message. Here's the full text of his message: Great Pollster John McLaughlin, one of the most highly respected in the industry, has just stated that The Failing New York Times Poll, and the ABC/Washington Post Poll, about a person named DONALD J. TRUMP, ME, are FAKE POLLS FROM FAKE NEWS ORGANIZATIONS. The New York Times has only 37% Trump 2024 voters, and the ABC/Washington Post Poll has only 34% Trump Voters, unheard of numbers unless looking for a negative result, which they are. These people should be investigated for ELECTION FRAUD, and add in the FoxNews Pollster while you’re at it. They are Negative Criminals who apologize to their subscribers and readers after I WIN ELECTIONS BIG, much bigger than their polls showed I would win, loose a lot of credibility, and then go on cheating and lying for the next cycle, only worse. They suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome, and there is nothing that anyone, or anything, can do about it. THEY ARE SICK, almost only write negative stories about me no matter how well I am doing (99.9% at the Border, BEST NUMBER EVER!), AND ARE TRULY THE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE! I wish them well, but will continue to fight to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! From Donald Trump Truth Social 04/28/25 05:24 AM

Trumponomics! https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-advance-estimate

Well, it's a bit early!

Deflect deflect deflect!

More lame deflection from you. Deflect, deflect deflect!

Then it's not surprising he makes dishonest claims!

It's ranked 7th! https://www.statista.com/statistics/267648/top-market-research-companies-by-revenue/

Absolutely not I have shown proof that your claim was ridiculous! Lol! You don't even know about sample data weighting! if you don't like ipsos, choose your pick All recent polls show a low Trump approval rating https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating#google_vignette

All pollsters do that! It's a standard procedure. It's a ridiculous accusation. Ipsos is one of the world leaders in surveys. If he's an expert, then he's willingly dishonest. If you want to educate yourself, here's a simple explanation. https://survalyzer.com/weighting-survey-data/

I quoted the poll report. I remember that you claimed to be familiar with statistics, so you certainly know about data weighting.

Lame attempt at deflection. Your ignorant claim has been debunked!

B.S. reply from you!

Complete B.S. for the ignorant! The so-called expert is not an expert or is dishonest. He should know that all polsters apply weigh to data in order to correct such issues! Ex about the Ipsos poll The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, 2024 presidential vote choice, and party identification. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/abc-news-washington-post-ipsos-april-2025

More whining, as usual! "They say Trump only has a 44% approval rating," he said. "Well, that's actually not bad. But when you figure that if it were a legit poll, it would be in the 60s or 70s, is – these people are a bunch of crooked people." https://www.npr.org/2025/04/29/nx-s1-5380216/trump-100-days-michigan-rally

As you were adressing the issue of attrition war, I was obviously talking about the recent advances since about one year, not the big territory it conquered at the beginning of the war. It has been very costly in terms of material and human resources, for a rather modest outcome.

Russia may be winning, but only by a small margin. Russia has been throwing all it can in anticipation of "peace" negotiations, for a rather modest outcome, given the price paid. It took nine months to get back the Kursk region, and the progress in Donbass has been quite limited. Moreover, its economic situation is dependent on the price of energy and the anticipated trend is a price decrease.

B.S. denial! The Wikipedia article shows several sources for this information.

As he did about elections, Trump is whining and making up fraud accusations when numbers are not good. Now it's about polls! 🤣 Trump's poll numbers are so abysmal he's crying "fraud" https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-poll-numbers-abysmal-hes-131930785.html Also attached the latest poll numbers https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Yet no missiles have been put closer to Russia after Eastern Europe countries joined NATO. They have been left where they were when the Soviet Union collapsed. On top of it, considering the missiles' range, it would make no difference if they were placed in Poland rather than in Ukraine.

You are right that European countries don't have the logistical means to conduct a war without U.S. capabilities, at least on short term. As to the EU, it wouldn't be able to do that in any case, as defense is not a prerogative of the EU. The only thing it can do is support initiatives by member States.

By truncating my post you altered its meaning, which was to reflect on a ridiculous conspiracy theory. The text of my full post was: "The reason you did not get any intelligent reply is likely that this conspiracy theory is irrealistic. Starting with the fact that, as I outlined in my post, European countries were completely unprepared to support Ukraine, as evidenced by the improvisation that characterised their initial response. No strategic stock of weapons, no sufficient weapon production capacity, and no established doctrine on how to support Ukraine. Not to mention the profitable economic ties with Russia. I talk about "European countries", because the EU has no defense prerogative and is not the institution in which military plans were discussed. The relevant institution is NATO. As to the U.S., it had the capacity to support Ukraine, but no clear doctrine about Ukraine, and also improvised. Actually, it was rather focused on Asia rather than Russia, since Obama's tenure. It was the neocons under Bush Jr. who were still focused on Russia."

The reason you did not get any intelligent reply is likely that this conspiracy theory is irrealistic. Starting with the fact that, as I outlined in my post, European countries were completely unprepared to support Ukraine, as evidenced by the improvisation that characterised their initial response. No strategic stock of weapons, no sufficient weapon production capacity, and no established doctrine on how to support Ukraine. Not to mention the profitable economic ties with Russia. I talk about "European countries", because the EU has no defense prerogative and is not the institution in which military plans were discussed. The relevant institution is NATO. As to the U.S., it had the capacity to support Ukraine, but no clear doctrine about Ukraine, and also improvised. Actually, it was rather focused on Asia rather than Russia, since Obama's tenure. It was the neocons under Bush Jr. who were still focused on Russia.

So much mismanagement by Biden! 🙂 Best economic recovery among developped countries with 2 to 3 times higher GDP growth rate than other G7 countries, lower unemployment, higher energy production and exports, and inflation finally controlled after the 2022 surge. Trump inherited a good economy from Biden and is now tanking it! 😆

The NATO threat argument is ridiculous! European NATO countries had been reducing their military budget for decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The EU was concentrating on what it's doing best: peace. The U.S. military presence in Europe also significantly decreased. Missiles and nukes have remained where they were before and have not been moved closer to Russia. There was no threat to Russia!

Good Russian propaganda! 🤣