dinsdale

'Prediction markets are places where people have money on the line, skin in the game. People don't lie with their money.' Kalshi, Polymarket and other such platforms have quickly emerged as a way to put money on elections legally and gauge who's ahead, after cycles in which when pollster forecasts crashed and burned. The opinion polls, which involve asking people how they plan to vote, said then-candidate Hillary Clinton would easily defeat Trump in 2016. In the end, it was close and the Democrat lost — the polls could not have been more wrong. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/us-politics/article-14011085/man-2024-election-betting-odds-predictor-polls-tarek-mansour.html

Ok. It's time for you to put your money where your mouth is. Where's your evidence that says Polymarket isn't a predictor and the prediction market is somehow not a predictor? So far all you have done is say it isn't and show an NBC poll and talk about a French guy. Not exactly a pass mark when debating a point.

Sorry but you seem to have misunderstood me. I never argued about there not being three seasons. If you say I do I would like you to show me where. All I'm saying is the true wet normally starts in July.

Here's a few of quotes from an academic paper submitted to the University of Arizona titled PREDICTION MARKETS VS. POLITICAL POLLS: FORECASTING ELECTION OUTCOMES "Overall, both prediction market contract prices and polling scores both sources accurately predicted the winner of the nomination within the last few days of the race. But the prediction market contract price data more quickly responded to key milestones during the race for the nomination which allowed the market to predict a winner with larger margins when compared to the polling scores." "New research has shown that prediction markets are effective at predicting future events because of their timeliness and ability to adapt to new information more quickly than other forecasting and polling methods (Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz, 2012)." "There is evidence that changes in the candidates’ prediction market contract prices are positively correlated with candidates associated polling scores. Since contract prices and polling scores are positively correlated it can be inferred that if there is an increase/decrease in a candidate contract price the associated polling score will also increase/decrease." https://repository.arizona.edu/bitstream/handle/10150/666656/azu_etd_hr_2021_0133_sip1_m.pdf?sequence=1 I'm sure you'll find a way to argue that Polymarket isn't a predictor even with what I have posted to support my argument shows it is.

Maybe you should read this "Polymarket is an American financial exchange and the world's largest prediction market," https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket is an American financial,City and offering event contracts. or this https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2024/10/23/prediction-markets-how-reliable-are-they-really-part-1/ or this (this is behind a paywall but there is one sentence visible) "Polymarket offers a useful gauge for predicting the upcoming election...." https://fortune.com/2024/10/22/trump-musk-harris-election-presidency-polymarket-crypto/ Polymarket is part of the prediction market so it must follow that Polymarket is indeed seen as a predictor. I suggest you do some homework before commenting on something you clearly state as NOT being a predictor.

Did I say it was? No I didn't. I clearly stated that the above vid is based on Polymarket betting odds and make of it what you will. I will obviously need to simplify my language so as to not cause any future misunderstandings.

Mate again I'll say and for the last time I always say this is the tropics and has 3 seasons. Why else would I say there's no such thing as winter in the tropics and this was the 1st comment on this thread? I will also stand by my comments that the true rainy season, the true wet, usually starts late July.

Here's something to think about. Trump wins Presidency in Electoral College. Trump wins popular vote. Republicans win the Senate. Republicans win the House. This IS a possibility.

So you didn't watch it. If you had you would know this is about state by state betting and betting trends. As for $30 million in crypto overall this is small change.

This is mainly based on the Polymarket betting odds and the AI txt to speech isn't great so make of it what you will.

Having read through this ChatGPT word salad my conclusion is nothing will change. Just the usual messaging about I'll do this and I'll do that but as long as industry keeps spewing out pollutants and crop stubble burn offs continue not only in Thailand but neighbouring countries serious pm2.5 problems will continue.

Is Trump claiming this or is he reacting to the claim?

Oops. Sorry. Someone did. Can't be bothered looking back to check right now. My apologies.

I think he's saying that the disparity between early voting will close with Republicans traditionally coming out to vote on voting day in this state. He's called it too close to call. By the way you earlier said that Texas will go blue indicating a landslide to the Democrats. Do you still stand by this?

This is thorough and scholarly. Take the blinkers off and have a look unless you're worried that this might not suit you're outlook. If you disagree that's fine but snide comments of disagreement and shouts of bias won't wash. Back up your comments. with facts and figures. Not legacy media headlines or unsubstantiated opinion. As I said this is thorough and scholarly. It's also well presented, logical and "reasonably" easy to follow. Never know you might learn something.

Great to see another worthy and intellectual comment added to the discussion. Cheers. Keep up the good work.

Great to see another worthy and intellectual comment added to the discussion. Cheers. Keep up the good work.

Here is possibly the next Commander in Chief of the most powerful military force on earth. I'm sure all the fanboys, fangirls and fan 100+ different genders will all be wetting themselves. I got about 6 min in and that's all I could do. The comments are pretty good though. To all the hundreds of different gendered, um ........ , people, is people still an acceptable term, because I don't won't to offend the therians identifying as wolves, cats, bears, dogs etc., enjoy. Here is who you think will be the next President of the United States. For the rest I urge caution, large amounts of alcohol. maybe a spliff or a bong or two and you might get 10 minutes in.

Oh I would very much like to see your information on this one, Please. With citations. Can you do this for us and support your comment? I'm sorry but data from MSNBC won't quite wash so you will have to do better than that. p.s. eagerly awaiting your data.

I am well aware there are three seasons in this part of the tropics hence my OP. "I don't care if it's going to be colder. I want it to be longer. By the way there is no such thing as winter in the tropics." Oddly enough the TMD said the cold season starts today and it's been very much on the warm side. The change of season is coming soon though (not today) but how long it lasts is another thing. Next year maybe another scorching April.

Absolutely disgusting conduct. Still this is the level the radical left have sunk to because they have nothing else.

I have a question. Does this make any sense or am I just rambling? The children of the community are the children of the community.

20 years is not enough? Have a look on the net for when the wet season starts. Some go with May and others July. Sure it rains in May even April but then it drops off but this period is the build up to the true wet season. I've heard May called the false start to the wet. Although this data is a bit old it shows what I'm saying and clearly shows the peak wet season. Rains almost everyday often at or around the same time and sometimes several times a day. This is for Bangkok 1981-2010. Can't be bothered looking for more recent data. https://tmd.go.th/en/weather/province/last30years-1981-2010/pattaya/61/459203

The polls are within margin of error. As for PA Polymarket has it at 62% for Trump but this is a tight one. It won't matter though as Trump will pick up enough battleground states to get to the 270 electoral college votes.

Last year the true wet started late August early Sept. This year the same and as I say the traditional wet season stars around Khao Phansa. which usually falls in July depending on the phases of the moon. Last year Khao Phansa was in August. Since you mention the Met Office UK this is what they say. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/travel/holiday-weather/asia/thailand#:~:text=The rainy or 'monsoon' season,lasts from March to June. The rainy or 'monsoon' season in Thailand occurs between July and October. The rains in the first few months are heavy but inconsistent (lasting just a few hours), whereas towards the end they become more persistent.