way2muchcoffee

But if a negotiated "truce" is agreed, and the reds go home, is there any guarantee that the other side will go home, or does the clock start ticking on the next protest the minute the reds finish theirs?

Any negotiated settlement must be acceptable to all not just the government and reds or it will come to what you say. An election this year but when. I dsont think it will be in 3 months. It must also be clear for all to campaign freely. Maybe a few government visits to the ISaan and North should be arranged first and a couple of PTP ones down south. 6 months is the logical deal or the best deal to getr as many as possible to agree to. What will also happen about all the crimes committed? An amnesty will likely be proposed but that just invites it all again

Lots of bumps along the way

I reckon if there is any amnesty involved for red shirt leaders there will have to be amnesty for the PAD leaders as well. That might help cool them down a bit.

Come on Abhisit, accept this great offer and lets have Democracy in Thailand once again.

You know it makes sense, accept this offer Abhisit.

Peace to all.

Will you say the same to the red shirt leaders if Abhisit counters with 6 months for dissolution and elections in 9 months?

Good offer from the Reds.

Dissolve House in 30 days. Followed by 60 days of campaigns before election.

Meaning elections in 90 days from now.

Excellent, lets hope Abhisit and his cronies do not now spit in the face of the people and refuse this offer. It will look very bad on them if they do.

LOL .. you really are funny --- Abhisit made a good offer -- elections 1 year early. The reds spit on it and escalated violence. Abhisit should make the same offer again.

Lets go back then, the Yellow side spat in the face of all Thai's when they held a coup in 2006.

They then spat in the face of the people by putting in place a constitution by force and threat.

They then spat again by holding elections under what was in effect martial law in places.

They then spat again by dissolving the PPP and letting the Democrats get off for similar charges (PPP paying small parties to run in 2006, Democrats paying small parties not to run in 2005). Same offense, one dissolved and one let off.

They then spat again in the face by arranging a "behind the scenes" parliamentary coup and getting the small parties to run with the "hated" Democrats in a coalition government.

Or you want to forget all that........ ?

A good offer, it came after foreign Diplomats visited the Reds area and discussed with them.

Obviously the diplomats did not see any terrorists, perhaps lots of old people and children but not anything else ??

Well done the Reds for listening to the Diplomats and making a good offer.

Now its up to Abhisit to accept it, or spit in the face of the people once more.

The offer of 30 days is an insult to all of the backers of this government, which by the way represents over 50% of the population of Thailand. Abhisit has about 20 months remaining in his term. I think the red shirts will need to do better than 30 days. Nevertheless, it is encouraging that they now want to talk. One can only speculate as to their reasons.

Have they been nailed on the terrorist charge, now that innocent civilians have been targeted?

Have they been convinced by the foreign diplomats?

Have they had a phone call from Mr. T telling them to call it off after some backroom deal has been negotiated?

Are the leaders fearing for their own skins?

Are they simply tired and don't want to see more death and violence?

Something is happening down the red stage. They are talking like it is over. Maybe some splits in the reds between stopping and going on. Confusing now Guess we will find out soon

Sounds like reds are asking government for talks

Yes. Following the tweets on The Nation. One can only hope that this thing will end peacefully after all.

Good offer from the Reds.

Dissolve House in 30 days. Followed by 60 days of campaigns before election.

Meaning elections in 90 days from now.

Excellent, lets hope Abhisit and his cronies do not now spit in the face of the people and refuse this offer. It will look very bad on them if they do.

How is that a good offer? If the government was to counter with 6 month dissolution and elections in 9 months would that also be a good offer?

I've got this (strange) feeling now. With the Army saying no force will be used to disperse, it took all the air out of the sails of fury. Now, the Reds say they will accept 30 days and want to negotiate tonight. A huge weight feels lifted.

I think it may all be over soon -- peacefully -- anybody else feel this way?

No. I suspect we will may some grenades landing in the red shirt camps very soon. There are extreme elements in the PAD. They want revenge for the grenades landing in their camps during their sit-in. They want revenge for yesterday. They don't seem like the kind of organization that is going to sit around and watch all their efforts end up with a loss here.

Video taken from the red shirt side that shows a projectile launched from red side aimed at skybridge/BTS.

No idea of M79 or just "fireworks".

EDIT: Added URL

quite a good vid. Seem to be the grenades

I'm not so sure. There appears to be a smoke trail following the projectile during the entire flight in the video. It is my understanding that this wouldn't be the case with an M79, but I could be wrong.

I my honest opinion, which will mean little to anybody but what the he_ll i'm going to add it, Abhisit has only himself to blame for this whole mess caused by the Red Shirts.

From the very beginning he was too lenient with their encampent at Central. Hindsight being a wonderful pain in the ar_se, i am sure evrybody will agree that the encampent should never have been allowed to happen, double standards or not. An immediate show of force might have been the answer way back then. However we will never know.

I am a fan of Abhisit and i believe that he has this country's best interest at heart. In my opinion he is a true believer in democracy and given the right amount of time to prove himself he may have changed the minds of many Thaksin supporters. Perhaps this is one reason why the red's are where they are now, in some crazy attempt to affect people's judgment of him as a leader.

At this moment i believe that the only way out of this mess is for him to call to an election in 6-9 months, be allowed to run the country properly until such time (hopefully showing many of the Thaksin supporters his abilities during this time) and the Red leaders to agree to it. i really don't believe that will happen so i see there being no other way out than using force.

Can somebody tell me why the military and the police can't enter the red's camps in riot gear with only truncheons and shields and physically remove the reds, put them in the large black trucks that are all over the capital and take them to a compund to be processed? And by processed i mean names, photo's, fingerprints etc and then sent back to their home towns at the governments expense. Why the need for firearms and ammo, be it rubber or live. This sort of thing used to happen every saturday afternoon outside pubs and football grounds in the UK. If the red shirt terrorist division (and lets be honest here, there is one) decide to use firearms, then and only then arm troops.

A show of physical force rather than lethal force may have an effect? Who know's.

Short term memory loss without impairment of long term memory is an indicator of Alzheimer's Disease. The army was sent in in crowd control/dispersal mode a couple of weeks ago, and were savagely attacked leading to 25 deaths. If you can't remember that, but can remember your childhood, you should consult a doctor, if you can remember where his surgery is located.

Actually this makes sense to me. Move in with the soldiers and police in riot gear, along with the tractors. Do it in broad daylight with an army of reporters not far behind. Film the whole thing from every angle possible. Remove red shirts from the periphery to waiting vans, trucks, and buses.

I'm no expert but I would imagine the reason they can't just go in with riot gear and shields is because the Red are armed with knives, sharp sticks and in some cases I would imagine guns. Would you go in with a shield against thousands like that. err no!

I understand your point, but it would all be caught on camera and the red shirts would be destroyed as a movement if they were filmed killing unarmed security forces. Send in wave after wave of unarmed security forces.

I my honest opinion, which will mean little to anybody but what the he_ll i'm going to add it, Abhisit has only himself to blame for this whole mess caused by the Red Shirts.

From the very beginning he was too lenient with their encampent at Central. Hindsight being a wonderful pain in the ar_se, i am sure evrybody will agree that the encampent should never have been allowed to happen, double standards or not. An immediate show of force might have been the answer way back then. However we will never know.

I am a fan of Abhisit and i believe that he has this country's best interest at heart. In my opinion he is a true believer in democracy and given the right amount of time to prove himself he may have changed the minds of many Thaksin supporters. Perhaps this is one reason why the red's are where they are now, in some crazy attempt to affect people's judgment of him as a leader.

At this moment i believe that the only way out of this mess is for him to call to an election in 6-9 months, be allowed to run the country properly until such time (hopefully showing many of the Thaksin supporters his abilities during this time) and the Red leaders to agree to it. i really don't believe that will happen so i see there being no other way out than using force.

Can somebody tell me why the military and the police can't enter the red's camps in riot gear with only truncheons and shields and physically remove the reds, put them in the large black trucks that are all over the capital and take them to a compund to be processed? And by processed i mean names, photo's, fingerprints etc and then sent back to their home towns at the governments expense. Why the need for firearms and ammo, be it rubber or live. This sort of thing used to happen every saturday afternoon outside pubs and football grounds in the UK. If the red shirt terrorist division (and lets be honest here, there is one) decide to use firearms, then and only then arm troops.

A show of physical force rather than lethal force may have an effect? Who know's.

Short term memory loss without impairment of long term memory is an indicator of Alzheimer's Disease. The army was sent in in crowd control/dispersal mode a couple of weeks ago, and were savagely attacked leading to 25 deaths. If you can't remember that, but can remember your childhood, you should consult a doctor, if you can remember where his surgery is located.

Actually this makes sense to me. Move in with the soldiers and police in riot gear, along with the tractors. Do it in broad daylight with an army of reporters not far behind. Film the whole thing from every angle possible. Remove red shirts from the periphery to waiting vans, trucks, and buses.

He already has a mandate. He has the mandate of the Democrat MPs and all of the coalition partners. Together they represent well over half of the population of Thailand.

Maybe not anymore . But it cost nothing to check it out by calling for a general election , perhaps it might even save some innocent lives

Actually it would cost a great deal to call an election right away. It will significantly erode the position of all future governments for decades to come. It supports the notion that a street mob representing a minority interest can remove an elected sitting government. Moreover, due to the inability for Democrats to campaign in the north and Isaan for fear of death or mutilation, any election in the very near future would be invalid. Additionally, the constitution needs to be amended before any election, otherwise the PTP or any other parties caught committing electoral fraud could very well see themselves dissolved and their leaders banned.

Some might try to claim that PAD did exactly that, when in fact that is very far from the truth. The PAD was fighting against Thaksin and his cronies' corruption at first, and at the end they were fighting the PTP attempts to whitewash Thaksin of his many crimes.

1) the military coup written constitution is more favourable to the government

2) there are no free and fair elections in Thailand (The old and new elite buy the patronage of the Nai who then instruct the Phrai how to vote)

3) The government would lose the election and the new government could then select the new army leadership thus making subsequent coups more difficult

4) No one seems to respect the results of elections- if the reds win, the yellows protest; if the democtrats form a government by 'influencing' the coalition parners, the reds come out

5) Everyone is so entrenched in their own dogma and constrained by their own loyalties, dialogue and compromise are not even a possibility

Pretty spot on.

It's a national crisis - he needs a mandate - or the Thail people will never forgive him - he does not have a mandate and if he sends these guys in and it gets bloody it can spiral - why is he so frightened of an election? come to your own conclusion - it's obvious.

He already has a mandate. He has the mandate of the Democrat MPs and all of the coalition partners. Together they represent well over half of the population of Thailand.

Top Army, Navy Units Readied For Red-Shirts Dispersal

If this happens I fear the Red -Shirts may disperse temporarily only to regroup and then begin an all out armed insurgency. Many could die and the country be plunged into Iraq-like chaos. Why not just bring back the 1997 Constitution, hold a free and fair election and respect the outcome of that election? I fear we have only seen the tip of the iceburg of the madness that could occur.

Because that's not a compromise. The redshirt leaders need to learn to negotiate. The blood is already on their hands. The current government, including the coalition partners, represents over half of the country. The redshirts fail to understand this basic point. If they want something there are better ways to accomplish this than starting a civil war.

plus over 500 websites are shut down each day!!

List them please. Yesterday's closures would be acceptable.

why are the red shorts now called terrorists when the yellow shirts who frightened the wits out of most farangs at the airport never called anything....

till today, no justice has been manifestly seen to be done to all farangs .....

make the yellow shirts pay first......then make the red shirts pay later and not pay forward....

The yellow shirts didn't attack and kill security forces with grenades and war weapons, make threats to burn various government buildings, or assassinate military commanders.

As far as this whole disturbance has been allowed to progress, I am quite afraid that NONE of the potential outcomes are very encouraging.

Thailand can never be accused of being a "mature" society.

Neither do the masses appreciate "rule of law".

It is not part of their culture.

I have observed many Thai parents/grandparents do not teach the idea of NO to children. Do schools teach the message of NO i.e. pass failing students regardless they are not qualified to progress? Does Thai culture understand NO?

Not exactly. They do seem to understand 'not yes' though.

This whole situation is not looking good at all.

I am really disappointed by Abhisits announcement. His stubbornness is taking this country to the brink.

He should be doing what most international observers are suggesting - dissolve parliament and put up a timetable for elections.

Instead he chooses confrontation and defiance, which, I believe he will come to greatly regret.

Abhisit's stubbornness? As I recall there are heavily armed protesters gathering in the central business district of Thailand's capitol city. They refuse to leave. They have killed security personnel and they are willing to kill more. They have declared war on the government of Thailand. They have submitted ultimatums and refused to negotiate. Who is being stubborn?

I note that the pink shirts rallied yesterday in defiance of the State of Emergency declared by Abhisit...I'm wondering why all the law and order fanatical farangs on here aren't calling for them to be shot by the army as lawbreakers? Perhaps we have a double standard, where it's only members of one side that the law applies to....

Perhaps because the pink demonstrators did not use grenades, rifles, and other war weapons to kill or injure some 300 security force personnel, threaten to burn BKK buildings, threaten the life of government representatives, assassinate military officers, or block a major area of the CBD in BKK for weeks in defiance of the ISA and SOE.

Just a guess mind you.

I don't think the people of Bangkok are prepared to give them another month, never mind the army.

No. I don't think so. Can you imagine the traffic nightmare and massive inconvenience to BKK residents once schools start in early May?

It seems pretty clear what happened.

1) The redsihrts were tipped off.

2) The police were delayed by elements in their forces and by redshirt supporters on the scene

3) By the time the police reached the leaders they were surrounded by an angry mob who has already shown the willingness to fight security forces.

4) The roads were quickly blocked by hundreds of redshirts.

5) The police were trapped, didn't have the will or the mandate to use force on the redshirt mob who had descended on the scene within minutes, and they were outnumbered.

6) Arisman's stunt was a PR gimmick, performed after the police had already been forced to give up.

Yes, there is some serious egg on the face of the RTP. They are publicly humiliated.

The only way this operation could have worked would have been to get in and out in under 10 minutes. They failed to do this.

You seem to forget he is already in power and has over a year on his term remaining. The only reason for him to go to the polls early is if he wishes to cave in to the demands of mobs on the streets who are funded by an on-the-run criminal. Doesn't seem like a great reason.

Just adding to your interesting and intelligent comment, he would also be following the rather firmly expressed advice of the General Anupong, the Commander of the Royal Thai Army.

You mean the erroneous and misunderstood advice that was retracted and clarified the next day?

good on them.

trying to arrest political leaders just a few hours after offering the next round of political talks, was a bad move from the government. Who is going to take them seriously?

ps great publicity for the hotel, they would be on every tv news around the world - advertising worth tens of millions $

Red Shirt leaders flee as Thai forces surround hotel

Nation headline I presume?

Government looks foolish in PR disaster would be more truthful, but we all know what the first casualty of war is, dont we, Khun Thamrong?

Guess we spoke too soon. From The Nation:

An embarrassing fiasco for govt

Published on April 17, 2010

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/...t-30127299.html

This isn't about opinion tonywebster. Supporting this redshirt movement is supporting terrorists. Or would you prefer to call them freedom fighters?

So now we know that they are all terrorist, what we can do? kill. put in jail 80.000 people? call the isrealian special force? MIB? Capitan kirk?

Ops i forget some milions around Thailand.... we kill all this terrorist?

What we do way2?

I don't have that solution. Wait and watch I guess.

Kind of extremist ... Thats not your best post

Probably not. I did give the alternative of a freedom fighter label though. Apologies to tonywebster and grandpops.

Let the case proceed. We'll see what information comes out. Perhaps there is a strong case for dissolution, or perhaps the EC was just responding to the raid on their offices by the red shirts a week or so ago.

Time will show.

If the evidence is there and the Democrats did wrong, they should be punished according to the law.

Agreed. I have stated this before as well. If the Democrats are convicted in a court of law then they must face the appropriate punishment.

Doesn't look like a whitewash...seems pretty logical to me. The ones stirring things up are the reds...along with telling all sorts of lies...

This political bickering is getting old...

Reds nothing to do with dems corruption .

When its TRT or PPP its ok , when its the dems , (who by the way were whitewashed in 2007 , while TRT was banned for the sames charges) then its not ok .

Kind of one sided , dont you think ?

Except that't not true now is it? The Democrat leadership was not involved in electoral fraud and therefore they were not dissolved. The PPP leadership were filmed engaging in vote buying and electoral fraud and were dissolved, as per the law.

Exlpain then how it was that if the democrats were not guilty of corruption, why the EC voted 4-1 in favor that they were

Different case entirely. The process is just beginning on this one. The investigation is much more involved if you read the particulars of the alleged violations by the Dems that the EC ruled on.