May seeks Florentine renaissance for deadlocked Brexit talks

[webfact]

May seeks Florentine renaissance for deadlocked Brexit talks

By William James

 

File Photo - British Prime Minister Theresa May speaks during a meeting on the sidelines of the 72nd United Nations General Assembly at U.N. Headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., September 19, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

 

FLORENCE, Italy (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May will try to rescue stalled Brexit talks on Friday with a speech in the Italian city of Florence she hopes will convince the European Union she is ready to cut a fair divorce deal.

 

Europe's capitals and boardrooms will be watching to see if May can offer enough to EU negotiators to persuade them to move talks forward, without angering eurosceptics in Britain who have the power to destabilise her minority government.

 

Britain is scheduled to leave the EU in March 2019 after a shock referendum result that has triggered more than a year of political turmoil, set business leaders on edge and sent sterling plunging.

 

The most complex set of European negotiations since the end of World War Two have pitted London against Brussels over how to unravel more than 40 years' economic and political integration.

 

After three rancorous months of negotiations, May, leader of the world's fifth largest economy, will to try to break the deadlock over one of the most symbolically important questions: how much it will cost Britain, in hard cash, to end its EU membership?

 

"The UK's departure from the EU is inevitably a difficult process, it is in all of our interests for our negotiations to succeed," May will say, according to advance extracts of her speech.

 

"The eyes of the world are on us but if we can be imaginative and creative about the way we establish this new relationship ... I believe we can be optimistic about the future we can build for the United Kingdom and for the European Union."

 

Britain has expressed frustration at the EU's demand for progress on the exit bill it must pay - if not an exact amount - before talks can move on, with British ministers keen to start negotiating the terms of its new relationship with the bloc.

 

Brussels has recoiled at Britain's approach, criticising a lack of detail and policy direction.

 

The BBC reported that May would say Britain is willing to pay 20 billion euros (17.58 billion pounds) to the EU during a post-Brexit transition period, but only if it has access to the bloc's single market.

 

May's office said she would detail her plan for a "time-limited implementation period" - something the government has previously said it thinks is needed to ease business concerns about the exit - but gave no further details.

 

The EU's chief negotiator said May needed to make a firm offer on key issues, including the Brexit bill, before the start of the next round of negotiations next week.

 

"To make progress, we are waiting for clear commitments from the UK on these precise issues," Michel Barnier said, noting demands for EU citizens in Britain to have their rights there protected by EU courts, and for London to pay a hefty bill before leaving.

 

CRUCIAL WEEK

 

May's speech comes at the start of a crucial week for Europe.

 

On Sunday, German voters are expected to return conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel to power but also vault eurosceptic parties into parliament, including the Alternative for Germany (AfD) whose nationalist, anti-immigrant ideas echo those of Britain's UKIP party, a driving force behind Brexit.

 

Two days later, French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to flesh out his ideas for a "relaunch" of the EU and euro zone, underscoring the bloc's determination to press ahead with a closer union that excludes the UK.

 

May's leadership has been hamstrung by the June general election she called to win a mandate for her Brexit strategy but which went badly wrong, costing her party its parliamentary majority and spawning a new debate about how to quit the bloc.

 

On Thursday, May gave her ministers a sneak preview of the speech in her London office, hoping to head off conflict among them.

 

"The speech will probably not be a slam dunk or game changer," said Matthew O'Toole, a former aide in May's office who left his position before the speech had been drafted.

 

"She is more constrained by domestic political concerns – as the past week has shown – than she would have liked."

 

Those present at Thursday's preview included foreign minister Boris Johnson, one of Britain's most high-profile pro-Brexit politicians and a one-time leadership contender.

 

Days earlier Johnson had stoked tension by laying out his own Brexit vision, challenging May's more cautious approach.

 

Johnson's intervention and reports of a row with May caused sterling to seesaw as traders fretted that he might resign, toppling her minority government and casting Brexit into chaos.

 

"The view among hardcore Brexiteers in parliament ... is that somehow we've allowed Brexit to go sour," said a Conservative Party source who asked not to be named.

 

"The pressure is on her now to show some semblance of authority and show she is driving this and she's going to have to try to show that she shares the Boris upbeat vision of Brexit."

 

(Additional reporting by Elizabeth O'Leary and Kate Holton in London and Noah Barkin in Berlin; editing by Andrew Roche)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-09-22

[BangkokNicky]

[terryw]

If the EU completely reject her proposals then it will be further evidence that they want to impose a deal rather than negotiate.

[mfd101]

2 hours ago, terryw said:

If the EU completely reject her proposals then it will be further evidence that they want to impose a deal rather than negotiate.

Nothing surprising in that. They're in the driver's seat, strong & - so far - united. The Brits are weak, confused, divided & suicidal.

[Retiredandhappyhere]

When anyone believes that you owe them money, it is usual for them to send you a bill, which can then be contested, if necessary.  It is not common practice to ask the alleged debtor to make an offer without knowing what the original demand is.

 

It seems to me that Merkel and to some extent, Macron, are trying to run the EU show and I see no real evidence that all 27 EU members are "united", as they rarely get asked for their opinions. Just ask Poland.

 

[nabbie]

43 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

Nothing surprising in that. They're in the driver's seat, strong & - so far - united. The Brits are weak, confused, divided & suicidal.

This is not a statement yet - so wait & see....

[gamini]

I think May has shown herself to be incapable and will falter and be replaced.  In spite of some of his very left wing policies, Jeremy Corbyn would be a better person to negotiate Brexit.                  

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, gamini said:

I think May has shown herself to be incapable and will falter and be replaced.  In spite of some of his very left wing policies, Jeremy Corbyn would be a better person to negotiate Brexit.                  

 

You are joking?

 

He has completely undermined his / Labors negotiating standpoint by declaring he would ensure there was a deal. He would have to come away with a deal now, however onerous it was. And based on other comments would simply bend over and by thoroughly shafted.

 

Not that the dubious, untrustworthy, back biting, divisive Tories are likely to actually achieve anything fantastic in the face of EU negotiators who seem to have been instructed "all our own way" or nowt.

[Grouse]

More like the denouement than a renaissance I fear. She is not exactly a Leonardo...

[dunroaming]

3 hours ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

When anyone believes that you owe them money, it is usual for them to send you a bill, which can then be contested, if necessary.  It is not common practice to ask the alleged debtor to make an offer without knowing what the original demand is.

 

It seems to me that Merkel and to some extent, Macron, are trying to run the EU show and I see no real evidence that all 27 EU members are "united", as they rarely get asked for their opinions. Just ask Poland.

 

Didn't realise you had an ear in Brussels.  I would have thought that you, like everyone else here had no real idea of what is being said and done in the EU camp.  I do know that every country has a vote and I doubt that Merkel or Macron will be getting any thumbscrews out. 

[dunroaming]

I think the pertinent question here is just who is the PM pitching to?  Will her proposal be to placate her cabinet and delay the knives heading her way or will it be try to move the negotiations forward?  One thing is for sure, the public interest isn't near the top of the list.

 

Still, let's see what the proposals are.  We know some will be nodding their heads (as they do at PM's questions in the house) and some will have their heads in their hands. 

[dunroaming]

3 hours ago, gamini said:

I think May has shown herself to be incapable and will falter and be replaced.  In spite of some of his very left wing policies, Jeremy Corbyn would be a better person to negotiate Brexit.                  

Well if Corbin would be better then god help the UK.  Can't see any saviour on the horizon with this mess to be honest.  Maybe we should press re-set, bring back Miliband and Balls and Cameron and Osbourne (as bad as they were) and start again.

[dunroaming]

So what have we learnt from the "speech".  There was a lot of sucking up to the Europeans and her saying that she wanted a transition period of about two years.  She committed to keep paying into the EU for that time even though we would have no seat at the table and so no voice.  So much for Boris saying they could go and whistle for the money.  She also confirmed that all EU citizens living in the UK could stay and that the European courts would probably still have an input after we leave.

 

Apart from that she said she didn't want a Norwegian or Canadian style deal but instead a bespoke one for the UK.  Of course she can only say what she would like or not like as everything is waiting for the "negotiations" to begin.  

 

So nothing we didn't know already and no actual figures on payments.  A complete let down for the Brexiteers and Remoaners alike.

[rockingrobin]

7 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

So what have we learnt from the "speech".  There was a lot of sucking up to the Europeans and her saying that she wanted a transition period of about two years.  She committed to keep paying into the EU for that time even though we would have no seat at the table and so no voice.  So much for Boris saying they could go and whistle for the money.  She also confirmed that all EU citizens living in the UK could stay and that the European courts would probably still have an input after we leave.

 

Apart from that she said she didn't want a Norwegian or Canadian style deal but instead a bespoke one for the UK.  Of course she can only say what she would like or not like as everything is waiting for the "negotiations" to begin.  

 

So nothing we didn't know already and no actual figures on payments.  A complete let down for the Brexiteers and Remoaners alike.

Considering the hype, you are left wondering who is in actual control and leading the UK government .Taking account that Boris cancelled a talk at the UN regarding Somalia to fly back with May. How much influence did his intervention in the papers have on the final speech

[dunroaming]

2 minutes ago, rockingrobin said:

Considering the hype, you are left wondering who is in actual control and leading the UK government .Taking account that Boris cancelled a talk at the UN regarding Somalia to fly back with May. How much influence did his intervention in the papers have on the final speech

May is clearly in an impossible position.  She is pitching to the EU, businesses, her cabinet and the British people.  In reality though she has nothing to say that will placate any of them apart from the commitment to pay in the £20 Billion (or thereabouts) to get us through the transition period.

[tomacht8]

The EU also calculates Brexit a la Boris - the EU could go and whistle.

Could be that this is much more lucrative for the EU? Banks, finance, insurance and b2b service companies can move quickly. Then follow the airlines, which must have one year in advance planning security. Finally, production shifts.

The three tax paradises Jersey, Isle of man, Guernsey could be closed without UK veto. More Border guards have to be paid anyway.

 

Would also be a scenario.

 

[aright]

11 hours ago, Grouse said:

More like the denouement than a renaissance I fear. She is not exactly a Leonardo...

Don't overlook it being a cunning plan.

By the way DiCaprio's a bloke.

[citybiker]

18 hours ago, mfd101 said:

Nothing surprising in that. They're in the driver's seat, strong & - so far - united. The Brits are weak, confused, divided & suicidal.

EU strong & United?

 

oh please total tosh, just ask a few Eastern bloc countries how harmonious and united the EU are?

 

As for PMTM’s speech, sack her speech writer for a start it was dire beyond belief.

 

 

[sirineou]

22 hours ago, webfact said:

The BBC reported that May would say Britain is willing to pay 20 billion euros (17.58 billion pounds) to the EU during a post-Brexit transition period, but only if it has access to the bloc's single market.

is that the going price for purchasing access to the EU single market?

[aright]

18 hours ago, mfd101 said:

Nothing surprising in that. They're in the driver's seat, strong & - so far - united. The Brits are weak, confused, divided & suicidal.

Sounds like something the Wehrmacht said before the last World War.

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, aright said:

21 hours ago, mfd101 said:

Nothing surprising in that. They're in the driver's seat, strong & - so far - united. The Brits are weak, confused, divided & suicidal.

Sounds like something the Wehrmacht said before the last World War.

 

And the whole remain stance is a warlike one: weak Britain against strong EU; stupid little engishers against enlightened europeans. Not the slightest trace of willingness to negotiate and compromise. Just modern day dictatorial mentality.

[VocalNeal]

Start withdrawing troops from Europe, and other such measure and then announce you have left. Don't fart around. 

 

1st rule of negotiation. Always negotiate from a point of strength. If not it becomes a concession, not a negotiation.

[Khun Han]

1 minute ago, VocalNeal said:

Start withdrawing troops from Europe, and other such measure and then announce you have left. Don't fart around. 

 

1st rule of negotiation. Always negotiate from a point of strength. If not it becomes a concession, not a negotiation.

 

The fact that we are not taking such effective measures in the face of such arrogance and intransigence tells us that our negotiating position is compromised by bribed/blackmailed /etc parties at home. We see this all day long in brexit debates: it's never about the morality; it's always about how strong the EU is.

[aright]

6 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

The fact that we are not taking such effective measures in the face of such arrogance and intransigence tells us that our negotiating position is compromised by bribed/blackmailed /etc parties at home. We see this all day long in brexit debates: it's never about the morality; it's always about how strong the EU is.

I made the point on another post; we are supplicants in this negotiation.

We should bring out the A negotiating team Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg

[Thongkorn]

Meanwhile the British Public pay Billions for EU pensions while  The British Army, and Police  are being cut back, NHS is in decline all through lack of funding, 

[aright]

32 minutes ago, Thongkorn said:

Meanwhile the British Public pay Billions for EU pensions while  The British Army, and Police  are being cut back, NHS is in decline all through lack of funding, 

Unfortunately the UK has a deficit of £50billion which requires cuts not so much to bring it down significantly but just to keep it in control. Those who don't like fiscal responsibility can stop the cuts by voting for Jeremy Corbyn at the next election in that way you can pass a larger deficit  to your grand children.

[citybiker]

44 minutes ago, aright said:

Unfortunately the UK has a deficit of £50billion which requires cuts not so much to bring it down significantly but just to keep it in control. Those who don't like fiscal responsibility can stop the cuts by voting for Jeremy Corbyn at the next election in that way you can pass a larger deficit  to your grand children.

Voting for JC is political suicide.

its an old cliche but a memorable one:

 

Labour: tax, spend & borrow.

conservatives: hard necessary decisions clearing up socialist mess. 

 

The electorate are fickle and have short memories.

[dunroaming]

2 hours ago, Thongkorn said:

Meanwhile the British Public pay Billions for EU pensions while  The British Army, and Police  are being cut back, NHS is in decline all through lack of funding, 

The way for Britain to meet it's commitments is with a strong economy and that relies to a great extent on trade with the EU. That is why we need the best possible deal with the EU and access to the single market.  Without that all our services are going to suffer, add to that us losing most of the European doctors and nurses and we could go into meltdown with the NHS.

[dunroaming]

On ‎9‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 12:22 AM, webfact said:

The BBC reported that May would say Britain is willing to pay 20 billion euros (17.58 billion pounds) to the EU during a post-Brexit transition period, but only if it has access to the bloc's single market.

The 20 billion euros if our commitment for the transition period. I fear you can expect billions more for the divorce settlement.

 

Slowly but surely the reality is kicking in.  Clearly listening to May's speech, (actually sounding quite a lot like Joyce Grenfell "Don't do that George!") she really cannot deliver anything.  The EU boys said they were glad that it sounded positive, by that I think they mean positive for them.

[aright]

I am sorry to have to say this because I quite like Mrs May but yesterday  as a result of her concessions we lost control of the leave process when we desperately need to take control of it

We need a new, more aggressive, hit squad for negotiations.

.