Somkid: GDP to exceed 4% in 3rd quarter

By Thai PBS

 

 

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of this year will exceed 4%, Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak projected yesterday (Nov 9).

 

Mr Somkid was speaking at the Thailand Economic Outlook 2018 seminar under the topic “Thai Economy Transformed.”

 

As he said that the government was committed to continuing reform to national economy next year, the country’s growth could be expected further.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/somkid-gdp-exceed-4-3rd-quarter/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2017-11-10

I often point out this "official" GDP growth of 4% only applies to the 59% of the economy which is the "white" economy. 

If the remaining 41% of the economy being the "black" economy is stagnant or declining then this 4% figure is a nonsense. The "unofficial" GDP of Thailand (100% of the economy, "black" and "white") is unquantifiable.

Thailand has one of the highest "black" economies in the world. 

The "black" economy is made up of the likes of all those informal food stalls, street vendors and repair shops. Not to mention the illicit watering holes, street “bars” and hooker venues at night. There are many others including "massage" parlours, gambling dens and illegal lotteries, street drug trade, smuggling, human trafficking, informal money lending and small weapons trade. All are part of the economy of Thailand. So are bribes and extortion.

No one pays tax for this, no one is registered and no economic numbers are documented so nothing therefore appears in the GDP figures. 

However they are also indicators of the health of the economy and if they happen to slow down (less money going around) then the economy suffers. The people on the streets in the towns and in the country have a better idea of the real economy than Mr. Somkid ever would. And so would taxi drivers and many readers in these forums.

 

Edited November 10, 20178 yr by Cadbury

19 hours ago, webfact said:

the government was committed to continuing reform to national economy next year, the country’s growth could be expected further.

Growth isn't the only economic risk factor for Thailand.

One analysis places Thailand at what I'd call borderline "acceptable risk" identifying some familiar weaknesses:

• Recurring political instability since 2006
• Foreign trade dependent on the Chinese economy 
• Business climate marked by lasting links between the private sector and politicians 
• High household debt

https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/thailand/risk

I would add "Government Instability" to the llist given what is soon to be the fourth cabinet reshuffle.

It wouldn't take many more poor economic polices by the "shoot themselves in the foot" Prayut government to further degrade that acceptable risk.